Packer draft pick targets

Just sharing some quick analysis of who I think the Packers may be targeting in the first 4 rounds, based on Pro Football Weekly's current draft rankings: http://www.profootballweekly.com/prospects/rankings/ PFW has long been one of the more reliable sources of this stuff. So here's what I came up with, assuming we keep our picks and don't trade up or down -- which is unlikely. Welcome your thoughts.

1st round (pick #28):
Likely interested in but likely gone: OLB Ingram, SS Barron, OLB Upshaw, DE Brockers, OLB Hightower
Likely interested in and available: DE Worthy, C Konz, OLB C. Jones, DE Reyes, OLB Branch, DE B. Thompson, OLB Perry, OLB Mercilus
Comments: If Ted Thompson is in love with someone like Ingram or Upshaw, maybe he trades up for them like he did Matthews. Or maybe one of those likely gone falls to him. I'd be happy with any of those five defensive players. But if we don't trade up and they're all gone, I think from what I read I'd be most happy with either Worthy, Reyes or Perry. Konz would be tough to pass on, but I just think he's a luxury we can't afford.

2nd round (pick #59):
Likely interested in but likely gone: OLB Z. Brown, OLB Curry, DE Still, S H. Smith
Likely interested in and available: HB L. Miller, HB L. James
Comments: Of course will be impacted by 1st round pick. If we took an OLB like Perry, I'd love here a 3-4 DE like Devon Still. Or if we took a 3-4 DE in the 1st like Worthy or Reyes, would like an OLB like Curry or Brown here. And while I'd prefer a second defensive player, I'd be very intrigued by speed backs such as Lamar Miller or LaMichael James, giving our offense a dimension it's lacked for years.

3rd round (pick #90):
Likely interested in but likely gone: CB J. Robinson, C B. Jones, OLB Irvin
Likely interested in and available: NT Ta'amu, OLB Cole, QB Foles, DE Cook, C Bewster, S Martin
Comments: Hard to believe a 3-4 DE like Jared Cook would still be available. More likely grab a S like Markelle Martin or C like Mike Brewster. Don't think we take a QB this high.

4th round (picks #123, 132, 133):
Likely interested in but likely gone: none
Likely interested in and available: CB Hardin, S C. Thompson, QB Moore, OLB McClellin, DE Wolfe
Comments: I think one of these three picks will be for a QB like Moore. Other two picks will depend largely on what we took in first three rounds. Can pick up some good depth at a lot of positions here. See McClellin getting drafted much higher.

4/2/128:23 PM

Original Post

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PackerJoeMember

Good post.

The late second round pick is very interesting. To me it seems like a dead area for the Packers....not many players projecting in that area of the draft seem to fit the profile of what Ted has historically looked for. As of now I think that's the most logical point for Ted to make a move...but who knows how much the board will change over the next three weeks? With Rodgers on board you wouldn't think QB that early but if Cousins or Osweiler is there I wouldn't be surprised to see Ted go in that direction. A QB could be the best value at that spot. Interesting that you list a couple of running backs there. I get the feeling that the running backs that Ted would be the most intersted in will be later round guys like Temple's Bernard Pierce or South Florida's Darrell Scott. Ted seems to prefer running backs with size and there are not that many bigger backs available in this draft. But Lamar Miller is not that far off. Could see him settling in at 220-225 pounds once he gets in an NFL strength and conditioning program.

4/2/128:48 PM

Grave DiggerMember

Don'ta Hightower or Kendall Reyes in round 1. Mark it down.

My dark horse for round 2...Oklahoma St. QB Brandon Weeden. He's a round 1 talent who will be available at 59 because of his age. Thompson loves that kind of value.

Guess for round 3? Presbyterian CB Justin Bethel. He reminds me a lot Nick Collins at Bethune-Cookman.

4/2/128:56 PM

stillcrazeeMember

I sat down and hammered out a Packer mock draft last night. With signing free agent D linemen I didn't look for one until the 4th round. That's also when I picked up a RB. I did not look at QB until 7th round. I also didn't take a center until the 7th. I don't think Collins returns so I took two DB's pretty high. My mock through four rounds (I traded our 4th round pick to move up in the 3rd).

# 28: Nick Perry, OLB, USC. Very quick. Needs to drop some weight that should make him even quicker and allow him to work in some zone coverage.

# 59: Trumaine Johnson, CB/S, Montana. I have read that he probably will NOT be a CB in the NFL because he is too stiff in the hips. If he can play CB great, but if not he should be a great safety.

# ? Third round - I was lazy and did not see how far up our 4th rounder would get us in the third round: Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina. I read that he got attention at the East-West Shrine game which then got him to the Senior Bowl. Should be a solid corner in a year or two.

# 132: Trevor Guyton, DE, Cal. With a little bit of additional weight he can be a very good DE in a 3-4. Stout against the run, but not much for pass rush ability, but in a 3-4 that's what the LB's are for.

# 133: Tauren Poole, RB, Tenn. Good inside runner who can make people miss. Did not have a good senior season but was behind a young offensive line.

My other picks included Scott Wedige, C, and Chandler Harnish, both from Northern Illinois.

Other picks were 2 more D linemen, an ILB and an OT.

Yep, adds up to 11 after the trade up in the 3rd round

4/2/129:02 PM

PackerJoeMember

Weeden, round one talent my ass.

4/2/129:04 PM

sschumer - Packer Fan HoF'rMember

PackerJoe, Grave Digger, very interesting takes, especially on QB value in round 2.

4/2/129:07 PM

Blair KielGOOD OL' FAKE BLAIR KIEL - My Hood? nice Henry. Fuck You!

quote:
Originally posted by Grave Digger:

Guess for round 3? Presbyterian CB Justin Bethel. ......

Where would you rank him if he was Catholic?

4/2/129:19 PM

CUPackFanMember

Weedon reminds me too much if Weinke, ie: people mistaking his age for readiness.

I think the Packers should go best defensive player available in the first 2 rounds, at least. And at least one needs to be a pass rusher. This team needs pass rushers and there seem to be plenty available.

4/2/129:20 PM

Blair KielGOOD OL' FAKE BLAIR KIEL - My Hood? nice Henry. Fuck You!

quote:
Originally posted by CUPackFan:
Weedon reminds me too much if Weinke, ie: people mistaking his age for readiness.

Great.

Plug-in back-up, nobody is expecting Andrew Luck.

4/2/129:29 PM

Johnny BoyMember

Why would GB choose Wheedon. Isn't he going to be like 27 this year? He will not play for us, just insurance and trade value at 30....not so much. I would not be opposed to another huge tight end that can stretch the field.

4/2/129:35 PM

Grave DiggerMember

Weeden is every bit as talented as Ryan Tannehill, a guy widely accepted as a round 1 talent. I would argue he's a better value because he's more mature, both physically and mentally, than any other QB prospect in the draft. And I think the difference between Weeden and Weinke is that you're not asking Weeden to be your franchise QB and starter. No I don't think Weeden is any more NFL ready than Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin, there will obviously be an adjustment and a learning curve, but I bet it won't be the same learning curve that some of the younger, less experienced players have.

If he's 32 by the time his rookie contract is up, no team is going to sign him away to be there franchise QB. He re-signs and we continue to have a quality back-up QB who probably has starting caliber talent. Talk about a win for the Packers.

4/2/129:51 PM

Blair KielGOOD OL' FAKE BLAIR KIEL - My Hood? nice Henry. Fuck You!

Great points GD.

If he had a SEC pedigree it would be a slam-dunk.

4/2/1210:00 PM

CUPackFanMember

I'd be pissed if they drafted Weedon. Just my opinion, but Weedon doesn't help this team win the Super Bowl and they have too many holes to draft a backup QB in the second round.

4/2/1210:32 PM

PackyMember

4/2/1210:47 PM

GoallineLarge Antenna

quote:
Originally posted by CUPackFan:
I'd be pissed if they drafted Weedon. Just my opinion, but Weedon doesn't help this team win the Super Bowl and they have too many holes to draft a backup QB in the second round.

You sound like Brett Favre in 2005. He was also wrong.

4/2/1210:59 PM

Satori"...going where the climate suits my clothes"

Nice work sschumer,
I think GB is hoping that Cobb will be their version of La Michael James / Darren Sproles

Goalline - Right or wrong, I will bet 1,000,000 cedi the Packers don't draft a QB with their 2nd round pick

quote:
Originally posted by stillcrazee:
# ? Third round - I was lazy and did not see how far up our 4th rounder would get us in the third round:

Moves GB up to about the 18 - 20 slot in the 3rd if you have a willing partner

17 San Diego (8-8)
18 Chicago (8-8)
19 Philadelphia - from Arizona (8-8)KolbRobbery
20 Tennessee (9-7)
21 Cincinnati* (9-7)
22 Detroit

4/2/1211:19 PM

Music CityMember

I am no longer convinced that Thompson is eyeing D with his early picks. Hargrove was added for that reason. I think they are courting Tolleffson for that reason.

Not to say he won't if the right D guy is there, but at the very least it opens up the BPA scenario and doesn't pigeon hole him into a D player. It is good poker, because now other GMs will be wondering the same thing...

4/2/1211:40 PM

bubbleboy789Member

Hargrove won't even be on the team at the beginning of the regular season. A good defensive player will fall and TT will grab him.

4/3/1212:00 AM

RatPackMember

I skipped church last Sunday to hammer out this ROTTT Mock and besides I had palms from last year.

Rd #1 Konc C. ROTTT signed Saturday on a Friday to throw off the rest of the league. If a guy is there that anchors your OL for the next decade that will make Uncle Ted look smert long after he retires no brainer.

Rd #2 Johnson CB/S. ROTTT needs to replace Pat Lee. Any plug should do the job and Uncle Ted warns Trumaine that being a fan target is a tough job. Knowing this kid can find a shak in Montana is explosive.

Rd #3 McClellin OLB. ROTTT considers this kid a starter already.

Rd #4 Holy Week so I will try to hammer these out as my Lenten duty along with of course drinking a case of Bock beer which is also a Lenten requirement in some churchs.

4/3/125:49 AM

chickenboyTic Toc

quote:
Originally posted by Grave Digger: And I think the difference between Weeden and Weinke is that you're not asking Weeden to be your franchise QB and starter.

Although Weinke did start in his rookie year (they went 1-15), I do think you would be hard pressed to say that Carolina viewed him as a franchise QB when drafting him.

4/3/126:57 AM

PackyMember

quote:
Originally posted by Music City:
I am no longer convinced that Thompson is eyeing D with his early picks. Hargrove was added for that reason. I think they are courting Tolleffson for that reason.

Not to say he won't if the right D guy is there, but at the very least it opens up the BPA scenario and doesn't pigeon hole him into a D player. It is good poker, because now other GMs will be wondering the same thing...

Starting to think the same way a little, at least for the first round. I think TT goes BPA. I can see one of the O-lineman falling a little, like Bulaga did, and TT pouncing.

Draft - Positions of strength/weakness

4/3/128:04 AM

michiganjoeMember

quote:
Originally posted by bubbleboy789:
Hargrove won't even be on the team at the beginning of the regular season.

Not quite sure what makes you believe that. I think it's more likely that he's on the roster and will make a good contribution.

4/3/128:35 AM

Grave DiggerMember

Here's my 2 cents on our needs and how Thompson likes to draft:

First look at the roster and how I think it is going to end up shaking out:

QB: Rodgers, Harrell or ________
RB: Starks, Green, Saine
FB/H-Back: Kuhn, Crabtree, DJ Williams
TE/H-Bakc: Finley, Quarless, Taylor
WR: Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Cobb, Driver
LT: Newhouse, Sherrod
LG: Lang, EDS
C: Saturday
RG: Sitton, Dominguez
RT: Bulaga, __________

LOLB: Matthews, Jones or So'oto
LDE: Pickett, Hargrove
NT: Raji
RDE: Wynn, _________, Wilson (then Neal after suspension)
ROLB: Zombo, __________, Lattimore
ILB: Bishop, Hawk, DJ Smith, Francois
CB: Woodson, Williams, Shields, Bush, House, ________
FS: Peprah, _________
SS: Burnett, MD Jennings

K: Crosby
P: Masthay
LS: Goode

So to me the gaps/holes/needs look like (in no particular order):
#2 QB
#2 RT
#1/#2 DE
#1/#2 ROLB
#6/Developmental CB
#1/#2 FS

Thompson's drafting history says this is where he tends to draft these positions:

QB: Anywhere...seems like they look for a specific player regardless of round
OT: Either Round 1, Mid-Rounds or UDFA
DE/DT: Anywhere...another position they seem to look for specific players. They take a lot of Late-Round projects
OLB: Round 1 if they need a starter, never on Day 2 or in the Mid-Rounds. They also like Late-Round OLB projects.
CB: Never in round 1, Mid-Rounds seem to be where they target undervalued CBs.
Safety: Anywhere, but Day 2 seems to be where he targets Safetys.

This is isn't to say he WON'T take a CB in round 1 or that he won't take an OLB on Day 2, he's just never done it. It seems to me that Thompson associates certain positions with certain rounds as it relates to value. For example he's taken 5 WRs on Day 2 and 3 Safetys on Day 2, but only 1 DL on Day 2 and 6 DL in the Late-Rounds. To me that says he thinks the best value on WRs and Safetys is on Day 2 while the best value on DL is in Round 1 or the Late-Rounds. Again that's not to say he won't take a DL on Day 2 or that he won't take a Late-Round WR because he has, but if he's looking for a Safety or a DL, I think he will look to Day 2 for the Safety and either take a DL in round 1 or go with the status quot and take a project in the late rounds.

4/3/129:41 AM

PackyMember

I would think you could answer "C" to each of the 50 questions and score better than Claiborne did on the Wonderlic.

Claiborne scores a "4".

4/3/1210:33 AM

Satori"...going where the climate suits my clothes"

maybe he tanked the test so he can avoid the Vikings at number 3

4/3/1210:42 AM

fightphoe93Member

One thing I'll never be able to do is figure out who Ted Thompson might draft.

Guys like Greg Jennings, Nick Collins, Jordy Nelson, Brandon Jackson, Mike Neal.. I really knew nothing about them, yet they were 2nd round picks under Thompson's watch. 3 of those 5 turned out to be excellent players, and the 4th one (Jackson) may not have been a great player, but he was a good teammate who fulfilled a role in a Super Bowl winning season. As for Mike Neal... okay it's not looking so hot right now.

I'm sure this year will be no different. I'm sure Thompson and his scouts have their eyes on some guys that really haven't been talked about much publicly. But most likely after the draft is done, we'll look at it from an overall point of view and say, yeah, I see why he did what he did.

4/3/1210:49 AM

IowacheeseKeen Insight

quote:
Originally posted by Satori:
maybe he tanked the test so he can avoid the Vikings at number 3

Duh Sec lerns em well

4/3/1211:20 AM

JJSDSitzpinkler Schadenfreude

I would think you could literally wipe your ass with that test form and at least have 5 answer blanks randomly filled in correctly with poo. A 4? Vince Young is Isaac Newton compared to this guy.

4/3/1211:22 AM

PakrzFREEZE!

quote:
Thompson's drafting history says this is where he tends to draft these positions:

QB: Anywhere...seems like they look for a specific player regardless of round
OT: Either Round 1, Mid-Rounds or UDFA
DE/DT: Anywhere...another position they seem to look for specific players. They take a lot of Late-Round projects
OLB: Round 1 if they need a starter, never on Day 2 or in the Mid-Rounds. They also like Late-Round OLB projects.
CB: Never in round 1, Mid-Rounds seem to be where they target undervalued CBs.
Safety: Anywhere, but Day 2 seems to be where he targets Safetys.

This is isn't to say he WON'T take a CB in round 1 or that he won't take an OLB on Day 2, he's just never done it. It seems to me that Thompson associates certain positions with certain rounds as it relates to value. For example he's taken 5 WRs on Day 2 and 3 Safetys on Day 2, but only 1 DL on Day 2 and 6 DL in the Late-Rounds. To me that says he thinks the best value on WRs and Safetys is on Day 2 while the best value on DL is in Round 1 or the Late-Rounds. Again that's not to say he won't take a DL on Day 2 or that he won't take a Late-Round WR because he has, but if he's looking for a Safety or a DL, I think he will look to Day 2 for the Safety and either take a DL in round 1 or go with the status quot and take a project in the late rounds.

Could've saved yourself a bunch of time and simply stated you don't know what the **** TT is gonna do.

4/3/1211:27 AM

JJSDSitzpinkler Schadenfreude

I don't think you can necessarily look at positions when trying to analyze Ted's track record in the draft. There are a few things that you can glean, however:

1. He's said that if you have a chance to take a tallanted big guy early, you do so.
2. He tends to like guys who have chips on their shoulders. AR, CMIII, etc. - guys who had to earn everything they ever got.
3. You have to love football and be a worker bee-type.
4. Big school/small school doesn't seem to matter that much - see Collins, Jennings, etc.
5. He'll take a flyer or two in the mid-late rounds.
6. He loads up on the back end of the draft to avoid having to compete for the best of the would-be UDFA's.
7. He's been right more than he's been Rong overall.

Trying to narrow this to some science where he picks X position in Y round won't lead to a logical result IMHO. He looks at the person and the game film and gets his BPA from there.

4/3/1211:31 AM

BorisPerson Man Camera Dildo Shop - NFLFU®

quote:
CB: Never in round 1

In 2007, TT was said to be very high on Darrelle Revis. The Jets traded up 2 slots in front of Green Bay & 1 slot in front of Pittsburgh to draft Revis at #14.

I have a hard time believing TT would have drafted Justin Harrell over Darrelle Revis if Revis was available.

TT also passed on Brandon Flowers in 2008 when he traded down out of round 1 and selected Jordy Nelson.

I don't believe TT has a "set" position he drafts for. He simply takes the BPA that fits the Green Bay Packers and their philosophy. That's why it's so hard to make a prediction which player he might take.

4/3/1211:50 AM

turnip bloodMember

JJSD
That is a general pattern that Ted Follows, but as Boris said nothing is set in stone.
Ted likes thought to follows rule #1 on your list “if you have a chance to take a talented big guy early, you do so”. He follows this rule sometimes to a fault, Harrell.

#4 “Big school/small school doesn't seem to matter that much” in the 2nd or 3rd round. Receivers and DB especially.

If Ted follows his pattern he will take a big guy in the 1st then in the 2nd or 3rd round he will take a small school DB. The DB will be someone most of us never heard of and we will be scrambling around to find out who is the guy.
Ted taking small school guys maybe a result of the Packers doing better pre draft scouting then anyone eles. Or maybe they just trusting thier scouts more then other teams do.

4/3/1211:51 AM

Satori"...going where the climate suits my clothes"

Here is an older post we talked about last year with regards to predicting TT's drafts:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

"As much as TT likes the BPA approach, he appears to hedge his top bets on draft day

Took Sherrod in the 1st, came back with Schlauderaff in the 5th
Took Cobb in the 2nd, came back with S.Smithson as an UDFA
Took Bulaga and Neal early, came back with M.Newhouse and CJ Wilson late
Took Raji and Matthews early, came back with J. Wynn and Brad Jones late
Took Nelson and Brohm early, came back with Swain and Flynn late

They seem to like having a top pick, a late pick and/or an UDFA lined up for competition purposes"

If this strategy holds true in 2012, then whatever positions GB picks early will be replicated later on, and by having (3) 4ths and (4)7ths, GB would be able to pull that off quite easily

4/3/1212:17 PM

FedyaMember

quote:
That's why it's so hard to make a prediction which player he might take.

It's only hard if you can't figure out who the BPA is.

(Note that I'm not suggesting I can figure out who the BPA is.)

4/3/1212:28 PM

Johnny BoyMember

Very Funny Packy!

4/3/1212:34 PM

Rockin' RobinMember

quote:
Originally posted by Grave Digger:
So to me the gaps/holes/needs look like (in no particular order):
#2 QB
#2 RT
#1/#2 DE
#1/#2 ROLB
#6/Developmental CB
#1/#2 FS

I would say there's a pretty big gap at Center. Saturday was a great stop gap, but they clearly need to select a young center to develop and evenutally take over when Saturday runs out of gas (hopefully not this year).

They could also use another guard to develop. Dominguez and EDS don't instill a ton of confidence if either Lang or Sitton get hurt. Plus it wouldn't surprise me if Lang becomes the emergency starter at tackle if Sherrod or Clifton aren't physically ready.

4/3/1212:43 PM

HerschelMember

That's a reason I think TT may prefer Zeitler over Konz for example. The Packers seem to prefer versatile linemen and Zeitler worked at Center in the post season but would have time to learn the nuances of the position behind Saturday if he's picked.

4/3/123:11 PM