Poz/Neg's Packers @ Ravens

I'm trying to find silver linings in the ST play - it does seem like coverage has improved a bit and the XP/FG operation looks much better.  But we'll be holding our breath every time.  I thought Harbaugh's decision to go for it on 4th down deep in their own territory in the 4th quarter was stupid for many reasons as others have pointed out, but also because it would force a horrible special teams unit to make a standard play in a pressure situation - why wouldn't a former special teams coach test that?

- The defense.  The tackling was not as good this week, several long plays were due to poor tackling (Andrews and couple running plays); edge players not containing - it wasn't just Gary - P. Smith and Tipa kept trying to go inside.  Not adjusting to Andrews killing them sooner.

- K. King was playing for Henry Black as dime safety.  He didn't seem any better.  Jaire can't come back soon enough.

+ Glad Lazard returned and was OK.  No major injuries.

I think the pass rush has been fine, even with Gary's elbow, since Mercilus went down.  It faltered last night because KC wasn't there to provide pressure up the nose allowing our edges to stay on the edges.  That's how they kept Murray hemmed in.  No doubt an effective Z would provide a boost though.

Zero chance Alexander isn't right back out on the edge. 

All I know is Jaire, Douglas and Stokes means less King and Sullivan.

@DH13 posted:

I think the pass rush has been fine, even with Gary's elbow, since Mercilus went down.  It faltered last night because KC wasn't there to provide pressure up the nose allowing our edges to stay on the edges.  That's how they kept Murray hemmed in.  No doubt an effective Z would provide a boost though.

I don't think the pass rush faltered at all.   Lose contain, yeah, but they got pressure all night long.   Hutley did a great job of escaping.

Even with the disastrous Week 1, Aaron Rodgers now leads the league in

EPA/play
CPOE
Adjusted EPA/play
CPOE+EPA composite

If you exclude Week 1, he's lapping the field. He's the best QB in football this year.

— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) December 20, 2021

@Henry posted:

Zero chance Alexander isn't right back out on the edge.

All I know is Jaire, Douglas and Stokes means less King and Sullivan.

I think any of those 3 could play the slot if they had too and be able to cover a TE like Andrews as well.

Watching that game drove me nuts. You knew the ball was going Andrews whenever Balt. needed a play or a first down. It reminded me of watching Dallas with Witten. Everybody watching knew where the ball is going. It's not like these TE's are burners or 7 feet tall with 3 foot arms. How they get open all the time is ridiculous.

Yeah I was expecting a man-zone hybrid: man on the TE zone for everyone else. Though it sure seems we don’t have the personnel for decent zone D

Andrews isn't the only one who has had success. Kelce, Kittle, Gronk, all have torn us up in the middle. They are all great TEs, but I shudder to see a slot WR guy run up the middle and how open he might be. Of course, teams don't have to do that when their TEs are doing all the damage by themselves.

@BrainDed posted:

I don't think the pass rush faltered at all.   Lose contain, yeah, but they got pressure all night long.   Hutley did a great job of escaping.

I am including containing a scrambling QB as part of the edges' pass rush responsibilities.  He could scramble to run or pass.  In that way they faltered vs how well they limited Murray.  KC pressured Murray from the nose and often flushed him to the edges where Gary and Preston were waiting for him.  They weren't able to do that as well last night.

@Henry posted:

Zero chance Alexander isn't right back out on the edge.

All I know is Jaire, Douglas and Stokes means less King and Sullivan.

While watching the game yesterday there was once or twice where I asked myself who the heck is #20 on the Packers.  That's how much I have completely forgotten King is on this team.  He only played 13 plays and from what I have seen only in dime situations. 

@Fandame posted:

Andrews isn't the only one who has had success. Kelce, Kittle, Gronk, all have torn us up in the middle. They are all great TEs, but I shudder to see a slot WR guy run up the middle and how open he might be. Of course, teams don't have to do that when their TEs are doing all the damage by themselves.

The best TE's in this generation had success against us?    How are we supposed to live with this?

What are you going to tell me next?   That if we faced LT, Reggie White and Bruce Smith that the line would give up sacks?

Those guys have success against everyone.   That's why you know their names.   Who is the TE for Panthers?  I don't know either, because he isn't Gronk, Kelce, Kittle, or Andrews.

@DH13 posted:

I am including containing a scrambling QB as part of the edges' pass rush responsibilities.  He could scramble to run or pass.  In that way they faltered vs how well they limited Murray.  KC pressured Murray from the nose and often flushed him to the edges where Gary and Preston were waiting for him.  They weren't able to do that as well last night.

As Aikman pointed out ....how many times do you have to let it happen before you learn? Giving up the edge on pass rush was a real negative last night, which will drive coaches crazy in film review today. Huntley played well but when his first read wasn't open he instinctively attempted to escape the pocket to either give himself more time to find a receiver or run. When he wasn't able to, the vast majority of his passes were incomplete and his runs were for little or no gains. This and getting caught with only 10 men on the field were real mental lapses last night. Nothing to do with talent level, just not doing what they were coached to do, which we have not seen much of this year.

@DH13 posted:

KC pressured Murray from the nose and often flushed him to the edges where Gary and Preston were waiting for him.  They weren't able to do that as well last night.

I wonder why....

We are being over critical.     The D has been much improved this season.   They were without their best player last night and the other professionals made some plays.    Savage didn't have a good game when he got matched up against Andrews, it happens.

+++++++  we are standing on top of the mountain, today  11-3

+++++++  clinched  a playoff  spot

+++++++  no major injuries

@FLPACKER posted:

As Aikman pointed out ....how many times do you have to let it happen before you learn? Giving up the edge on pass rush was a real negative last night, which will drive coaches crazy in film review today. Huntley played well but when his first read wasn't open he instinctively attempted to escape the pocket to either give himself more time to find a receiver or run. When he wasn't able to, the vast majority of his passes were incomplete and his runs were for little or no gains. This and getting caught with only 10 men on the field were real mental lapses last night. Nothing to do with talent level, just not doing what they were coached to do, which we have not seen much of this year.

Aikman actually sounded mad about it.  Made me laugh.  Both P and Gary really dropped the ball on contain throughout the game.  Fixable but it shouldn't of happened in the first place. 

I think they thought they could just bum rush Huntley and he'd fold like Love.  Came to find out Huntley is very capable.

Yes! Aikman sounded like a coach disgusted with mental errors!!

@BrainDed posted:

I wonder why....

We are being over critical.     The D has been much improved this season.   They were without their best player last night and the other professionals made some plays.    Savage didn't have a good game when he got matched up against Andrews, it happens.

Well no sh@t, sherlock.  That's what we're discussing.

@BrainDed posted:

The best TE's in this generation had success against us?    How are we supposed to live with this?

What are you going to tell me next?   That if we faced LT, Reggie White and Bruce Smith that the line would give up sacks?

Those guys have success against everyone.   That's why you know their names.   Who is the TE for Panthers?  I don't know either, because he isn't Gronk, Kelce, Kittle, or Andrews.

Of course, that's why you know their names. But the idea is to slow them down and not allow them free rein all over the field. They will make some catches, but to see it over and over and over again in the same game yesterday? Come on. The Saints made Gronk look pretty average last night. My point is that it was happening again and again with Andrews. Against Kelce, they did a decent job and held him to 5/68 and one TD. Andrews? 10/136 and 2 TDs.

@michiganjoe posted:

LInk

That replay shows the ball hitting Stokes in the chest and your claim that the tip made the ball more catchable is absurd.

Ok...

Tipping that ball the way Savage did would have pushed it further to the right.  So yeah, without the tip that ball hits Stokes more to his right shoulder and maybe he picks it.

+  BOGO Kwik Trip pizzas

@BrainDed posted:

I wonder why....

We are being over critical.     The D has been much improved this season.   They were without their best player last night and the other professionals made some plays.    Savage didn't have a good game when he got matched up against Andrews, it happens.

The defense has gone from a stretch where they were the reason the Packers won games (Seattle, Arizona, WFT, and played well enough to beat the Chiefs) to playing well enough to win games but giving up points. It's still better than last year, but they gone 3-1 the last 4 games despite giving up 28, 30, 30, and 31 points. Granted, you could say a lot of that is due to atrocious special teams plays (a punt return TD and always giving away 10-20 yards of field position), but the special teams have been atrocious all year.

The good thing is that no other team is about to return two (and maybe three) Pro Bowl-level defensive guys in the next 3-4 weeks. Alexander and Clark are top 5 in the NFL at their positions and Z. Smith is a top 10 edge rusher.

Haven’t we thought the next 3 or 4 weeks for about 3 or 4 weeks now for some of the walking wounded?

I think what actually happened to the ball suffers a bit from the camera angle.
One thing that is clear is before Savage tips it, the ball is traveling parallel to the ground. When he tips it, it stands the ball up on end where it is perpendicular to the ground, but doesn't create an end-over-end tumble.
I don't know if that changes the trajectory, or if it wound up going pretty much where it was thrown. Helluva play by Savage in any case.

Football is a game of inches.

@50k Club posted:

I'm trying to find silver linings in the ST play - it does seem like coverage has improved a bit and the XP/FG operation looks much better.  But we'll be holding our breath every time.  I thought Harbaugh's decision to go for it on 4th down deep in their own territory in the 4th quarter was stupid for many reasons as others have pointed out, but also because it would force a horrible special teams unit to make a standard play in a pressure situation - why wouldn't a former special teams coach test that?

The special teams cost them points last night in some hidden ways. The punt returns have been so bad all year that I know I'm almost ready to give them a standing ovation when they execute a successful fair catch.

1. At the end of the first half yesterday, the Ravens punted with about 50 seconds left and C. Sullivan was back to field the punt. The Packers had fairly good blocking (for once), but he fair caught when one guy was about 10 yards away from him. If he catches it and makes one guy miss, he probably gains 10-15 yards. Even with the Kelly whiffing sack, you are still trying a FG at the end of the half instead of punting it back.

2. Most NFL teams just kick the ball of out the end zone and don't let the returner even have a chance (because they are almost always going to get it out to the 20 and the extra few yards isn't worth the risk of a guy breaking one. Everyone tries to kick short on the Packers because they know there is a huge risk of a fumble, penalty, or some other miscue. The Packers always seem to be starting from the 15 or so. Those 10 extra yards can make a difference.

3. A lot of teams play soft on the FG block unit. It's unlikely they are going to get home for a block against most teams and it's not worth the risk of leaving yourself vulnerable for a fake. Not against the Packers - you can sell out and take some chances. It took the Packers about a month to figure out how to block the right side of their formation on FGS and they aren't going to risk pulling a fake out of the playbook when they can barely execute the simple stuff.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Aaron Jones and D. Adams back for kick and punt returns in the playoffs. It's a injury risk, but just having them back there would make teams do things differently. Aaron Jones or Adams are a threat for a big play and you'd want to keep the ball away from them. Amari Rodgers getting a 10 yard return is looked at as a win for the Packers.

@Timmy! posted:

I think what actually happened to the ball suffers a bit from the camera angle.
One thing that is clear is before Savage tips it, the ball is traveling parallel to the ground. When he tips it, it stands the ball up on end where it is perpendicular to the ground, but doesn't create an end-over-end tumble.
I don't know if that changes the trajectory, or if it wound up going pretty much where it was thrown. Helluva play by Savage in any case.

Football is a game of inches.

Kind of "knuckleballed " it

@Gsands posted:

+  BOGO Kwik Trip pizzas

Oh Jesus.

I live in California and have never heard of KwikTrip. I just did some investiGoogling and see that there is one located near my parent's home in MKE where i will be visiting next week. I'll have to check them out. How often do they do the BOGO offer?

So I think I have this right. If the Packers beat Cleveland and Minny and the Cards beat the Cowboys the #1 seed is secured after week 17?

@michiganjoe posted:

LInk

It wasn't a good throw anyway and may well have not been completed even without Savage tipping it. That replay shows the ball hitting Stokes in the chest and your claim that the tip made the ball more catchable is absurd.

This link doesn't show the best angle, which was shown right after this video ends.  Here's one that shows it from behind the end zone:

https://youtu.be/g6DWE-Uqce8?t=27

The ball is clearly thrown off the mark (or the TE moved in too far, but given the TE in question, I'll blame the throw).  Savage tipping it does move the ball towards the TE slightly.

In either case none of it matters.  The throw is bad, the TE was in the wrong spot, we defended it, and they didn't convert.  We win.

Still don't see Savage making the ball any more catchable there, but like you said it really doesn't matter.

Agree, Savage's "tipping" of the ball really had no effect on the outcome of the play...he was only able to tip it because the ball was thrown too far to the middle for Andrews to catch it.

@michiganjoe posted:

Still don't see Savage making the ball any more catchable there, but like you said it really doesn't matter.

Agreed.  The ball moved more towards Andrews but not enough for him to make a play on it.  But it also didn't need to be tipped, because it was a bad throw.

The ‘tip’ may have prevented an Int

How many angels can dance on Darnell Savage's fingernail?

Who gives a fuck.  It was a bad pass and yet Savage made the right defensive move with Stokes covering Andrews.

They held and on Harbaugh's reasoning for the conversion that he didn't think they could win in OT.

That's saying something.

Would have liked to see stokes man coverage on Andrew’s all game. And why did that TE get so many free releases at the line?

@The Pepper Assassin posted:

Oh Jesus.

I live in California and have never heard of KwikTrip. I just did some investiGoogling and see that there is one located near my parent's home in MKE where i will be visiting next week. I'll have to check them out. How often do they do the BOGO offer?

They only have BOGO on the day after a Packer win but you need to get there early. There are 5 different pizzas. Ends up being 2 for 8 bucks and they are pretty tasty.

I am sure that the analytics told him to go for the win but I wonder if there is research into predictors of who is more likely (other than who wins the coin toss) to win in OT based on momentum in last minutes of regulation? We scored 3 pts on our last two drives while they scored 14 on their last two, which one would think would give Harbough confidence that they could win in OT?

There was still 42 seconds left

@YATittle posted:

Would have liked to see stokes man coverage on Andrew’s all game. And why did that TE get so many free releases at the line?

Stokes was shutting down Hollywood Brown. No one else on the roster could run with him.

@Pikes Peak posted:

There was still 42 seconds left

Great point that I overlooked!