Rodgers Contract and Future

There has been a lot of chatter this weekend about Rodgers, cap impacts, does he play out the contract, when does it make sense to move on, etc  So, let's lay this out for all. The data on AR's contract is here

The tl;dr summary:

His contract makes it virtually impossible to move him before the end of the 2021 season but makes pretty easy to move on after 2021/before 2022 season. I think this is all pointing to 2 more years of AR, a trade, and then handing the reins to Jordan Love in September of 2022, giving you at least more than a year before making a decision on extending Love to the team option 5th year, or a new deal.

Before 2020 season - impossible.

Release/trade before 6/1/20

• $53.1M in dead cap for 2020
• ($31M) in cap "savings" in 2020 (yeah NEGATIVE cap savings)
  
  

Release/trade after 6/1/20

• $21.6M in dead cap in 2020, $31.5M in dead cap in 2021
• $0M in cap savings in 2020
  
  

Neither one of these is happening, just presenting the data. There's nothing that indicates AR would demand a trade or hold out (other than braying of some media jackasses), but if he did, I think GB would have to just let him sit, as the impact to the cap is absolute murder

Before 2021 season - Also basically impossible.

Release/trade AR before 6/1/21

• $38.3 in dead cap for 2021
• $(1.1M) in cap savings in 2021
  
  

Release/trade AR after 6/1/21

• $21.1M in dead cap in 2021, $17.2M in dead cap in 2022
• $16M in cap savings in 2021

Again, both are basically impossible, but if we're looking at worst case scenario like Rodgers held out all of the 2020 season and things were just ugly, trading him post 6/1 would be slightly less crippling than anything prior to 6/1/21

Before 2022 season  - There's the out

Release/trade AR before 6/1/22

• $17.2M in dead cap for 2022
• $22.6M in cap savings in 2022
  
  

If you release/trade AR after 6/1/22

• $14.3M in dead cap in 2022, $2.8M in dead cap in 2023
• $25.5M in cap savings in 2022

And, here is where the option starts to present itself. The dead cap is not that bad and cap savings makes it a wash of sorts. Getting away from Rodgers at this point is not prohibitive cap wise, it saves GB a ton of cash (like $50M), and most importantly, if gives the Packers more time to evaluate Jordan Love in actual game action before deciding if they extend him beyond 4 years, be it the 5th year team option, or a new deal. I'd hate to have to make the call on a 5th year option, or more, with only a single "rookie" year under his belt. The decision I think will be "do you try and trade him before the 2022 draft and try to acquire picks for that year" or "we like the 2023 draft better so we'll trade him June 1st". I don't think the impact to dead cap/cap savings is substantial enough that it should color their opinion. It's gonna depend on which draft class management thinks is/will be better.   

Before 2023 season - Doesn't change much

• $2.8M in dead cap in 2023
• $25.5M in cap savings in 2023
  
  

Doesn't matter if this is pre/post 6/1.  And to me it's less about whether you pay him for the last year of his deal and it's more, If you let AR play out his contract, you'll have to make a decision on Love's 5th year without seeing him play live action.

Wrap Up

I'm not advocating moving on from Rodgers. I'm far more in the "if he returns to form I'd much rather he plays here until he wants to retire. But, seems very unlikely at this point to me that the Packers will try keeping him even the 4 remaining years of this contract.

He's here 2 years at a minimum. Anything beyond that makes it really hard to judge what you have with Love. Maybe that's not a big deal, maybe practice gives you everything you need to know, but I think you gotta see what you have before you start adding the 5th year or a new deal.

If you let AR play a 3rd season and then move on you've got only one year to evaluate Love in actual games.

If you let him play out the 4 year deal, you'll have to decide whether to extend Love on a team option 5th year without any game time evaluation. Maybe you don't care.

Tough spot, but this is the corner they've painted themselves in to. To me, the need to have more than one year evaluation of Love + the money savings + the opportunity for a trade that bags you a ton, points a trade before the 2022 season.

This move was probably a year earlier than you'd really want, but if you truly believe Love is a franchise guy, it makes all the sense in the world. Personally, I don't, but I'm not an NFL talent evaluator. I think his ceiling is Jay Cutler - looks the part, has the arm, but makes back breaking killer mistakes far too often.