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There has been a lot of chatter this weekend about Rodgers, cap impacts, does he play out the contract, when does it make sense to move on, etc  So, let's lay this out for all. The data on AR's contract is here

The tl;dr summary:

His contract makes it virtually impossible to move him before the end of the 2021 season but makes pretty easy to move on after 2021/before 2022 season. I think this is all pointing to 2 more years of AR, a trade, and then handing the reins to Jordan Love in September of 2022, giving you at least more than a year before making a decision on extending Love to the team option 5th year, or a new deal.

Before 2020 season - impossible.

Release/trade before 6/1/20

  • $53.1M in dead cap for 2020
  • ($31M) in cap "savings" in 2020 (yeah NEGATIVE cap savings)

Release/trade after 6/1/20

  • $21.6M in dead cap in 2020, $31.5M in dead cap in 2021
  • $0M in cap savings in 2020

Neither one of these is happening, just presenting the data. There's nothing that indicates AR would demand a trade or hold out (other than braying of some media jackasses), but if he did, I think GB would have to just let him sit, as the impact to the cap is absolute murder

Before 2021 season - Also basically impossible.

Release/trade AR before 6/1/21

  • $38.3 in dead cap for 2021
  • $(1.1M) in cap savings in 2021

Release/trade AR after 6/1/21

  • $21.1M in dead cap in 2021, $17.2M in dead cap in 2022
  • $16M in cap savings in 2021


Again, both are basically impossible, but if we're looking at worst case scenario like Rodgers held out all of the 2020 season and things were just ugly, trading him post 6/1 would be slightly less crippling than anything prior to 6/1/21

Before 2022 season  - There's the out

Release/trade AR before 6/1/22

  • $17.2M in dead cap for 2022
  • $22.6M in cap savings in 2022

If you release/trade AR after 6/1/22

  • $14.3M in dead cap in 2022, $2.8M in dead cap in 2023
  • $25.5M in cap savings in 2022


And, here is where the option starts to present itself. The dead cap is not that bad and cap savings makes it a wash of sorts. Getting away from Rodgers at this point is not prohibitive cap wise, it saves GB a ton of cash (like $50M), and most importantly, if gives the Packers more time to evaluate Jordan Love in actual game action before deciding if they extend him beyond 4 years, be it the 5th year team option, or a new deal. I'd hate to have to make the call on a 5th year option, or more, with only a single "rookie" year under his belt. The decision I think will be "do you try and trade him before the 2022 draft and try to acquire picks for that year" or "we like the 2023 draft better so we'll trade him June 1st". I don't think the impact to dead cap/cap savings is substantial enough that it should color their opinion. It's gonna depend on which draft class management thinks is/will be better.   

Before 2023 season - Doesn't change much

  • $2.8M in dead cap in 2023
  • $25.5M in cap savings in 2023

Doesn't matter if this is pre/post 6/1.  And to me it's less about whether you pay him for the last year of his deal and it's more, If you let AR play out his contract, you'll have to make a decision on Love's 5th year without seeing him play live action.

Wrap Up

I'm not advocating moving on from Rodgers. I'm far more in the "if he returns to form I'd much rather he plays here until he wants to retire. But, seems very unlikely at this point to me that the Packers will try keeping him even the 4 remaining years of this contract.

He's here 2 years at a minimum. Anything beyond that makes it really hard to judge what you have with Love. Maybe that's not a big deal, maybe practice gives you everything you need to know, but I think you gotta see what you have before you start adding the 5th year or a new deal.

If you let AR play a 3rd season and then move on you've got only one year to evaluate Love in actual games.

If you let him play out the 4 year deal, you'll have to decide whether to extend Love on a team option 5th year without any game time evaluation. Maybe you don't care.

Tough spot, but this is the corner they've painted themselves in to. To me, the need to have more than one year evaluation of Love + the money savings + the opportunity for a trade that bags you a ton, points a trade before the 2022 season.

This move was probably a year earlier than you'd really want, but if you truly believe Love is a franchise guy, it makes all the sense in the world. Personally, I don't, but I'm not an NFL talent evaluator. I think his ceiling is Jay Cutler - looks the part, has the arm, but makes back breaking killer mistakes far too often.

Last edited by Timpranillo
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Hub Arkush of Pro Football Weekly was on this morning and said it is well known throughout the NFL that Matt LaFleur is amongst the best, if not the best, in correcting and revising QB Mechanics. In fact, he apparently tweaked Matt Ryan's the year he won the MVP and Ryan also credits him with that. 

One of J-Lo's primary issue is just that. "Looping wind up" is one of his weaknesses, holding onto the ball too long, pocket awareness, etc. If in fact MLF is one of the best coaches at correcting the above and Love is teachable, this bodes pretty well for the Packers.

It unfortunately does not for AR.

My guess? Number 10 is the starting QB for the Packers in September, 2022. The Packers arrange for a trade to the Broncos for a 2nd round pick. It would be Elway's Manning dream scenario 2.0 and the Packers ship Rodgers to an AFC opponent they will almost never see. 

I guess the 'out' situation, still costs 17m unless some team picks the whole thing up and we can make a trade.  this could be handled by not making the pick...they either mis-calculated the pick, ie: should have NOT made the pick or mis-calculated making 12's money for a longer term.  they also converted some $ to guaranteed to get cap savings, i can't remember if that affected the overall term or anything...the team screwed that up one way or the other.  if they could have even 'sniffed' there would be a good crop of qb's coming into the draft in the next few years, why extend 12 at all? just use the franchise tag after his contract runs out...that would actually make sense to me and gives us a 'direction' on wtf they are doing.

Likewise, McGinn believes that Rodgers was โ€œdifficult to coachโ€ last year and that he will be โ€œeven more difficult to coachโ€ if the team shifts its offense to a run-based attack in 2020.

He's not even an active reporter with the ability to talk to "sources" he could previously pull out of his ass when he was employed with JsOnline. He knows no more of this then any of us do. 

They don't want him to "return to form" they want him to run their fucking offense the way they want it run. If he does that, they think they have a chance to win another championship. If he doesn't it's going to be some close-but-no-cigar seasons from here on out.

If #12 is the pro he purports himself to be, he will work with the staff and honor their wishes and run the offense as they want it run. If he does that, they have a real shot at winning a title.

Last year vs the Whiners (twice) should show Aaron how much an unstoppable running game can help you win.

We took Jennings in the 2nd round in 2006. We could have drafted Vernon Davis at TE, though, instead of AJ Hawk, in the 1st. We also took Abdul Hodge in the 3rd, doubling down at linebacker, which didn't work. The one pro-bowler we missed out on in the third round was Jason Hatcher, who had a decent career on the D-line.

We also doubled down on O-line, taking Darren Colledge, and Jason Spitz. 

Last edited by Packmeister
@MNPackman posted:

Here's a nice column by Andrew Brandt that sums the situation up well:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04...mp;utm_medium=social

Key passage that may be some insight into the front office and coaching staffโ€™s point of view: 

โ€œThere is one parallel that is important here. In the later years of Brettโ€™s tenure, I sensed a feeling around our personnel department that there was, well, too much emphasis on Brett and not enough on our team. I just noticed that when fans and media constantly marveled about Brett, they felt it was ignoring all the work put in by our team as a whole. Current Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst was part of that scouting department then and my sense, from afar, is the same feeling exists in that building now. It is a dynamic in team sports that happens far more than people know, currently on display in the The Last Dance documentary about Michael Jordanโ€™s last season with the Bulls. Scouts, while marveling at the talent of their superstars, get much more excited about seeing their โ€œhidden gemsโ€ succeed than they do about stars doing what they are expected to do.โ€

Its going to be interesting... Rodgers is a smart guy. Iโ€™m willing to wager he sees the dynamics and is willing to zig to avoid ruining his legacy. To not be Favre. Heโ€™s spent a career taking hits making sure heโ€™s not like Favre. Wouldnโ€™t it be something if Rodgers checks all the boxes and goes out like Elway did? 

If baffles me the amount of Packers fans who want to move on from #12.  It truly does and I don't think many remember what the Packers QB situation was like before #4 and #12.

Anyhow, it is only my personal opinion but I think that Rodgers never lost his form but he is running a different system that is way more balanced than MM's and he also doesn't have the weapons he needs right now.   

So my guess?  The Packers do NOT trade or release AR anytime soon because of of the cap hit and I don't think Gute/MLF will do it unless they know for sure they have the heir apparent whether that's Love or someone else. 

@pkr_north posted:

I guess the 'out' situation, still costs 17m unless some team picks the whole thing up and we can make a trade.  this could be handled by not making the pick...they either mis-calculated the pick, ie: should have NOT made the pick or mis-calculated making 12's money for a longer term.  they also converted some $ to guaranteed to get cap savings, i can't remember if that affected the overall term or anything...the team screwed that up one way or the other.  if they could have even 'sniffed' there would be a good crop of qb's coming into the draft in the next few years, why extend 12 at all? just use the franchise tag after his contract runs out...that would actually make sense to me and gives us a 'direction' on wtf they are doing.

There's always a good crop of QBs coming out. 3 first round QBs are about the norm. Sometimes 4 and occasional 5 but there are also 2 and sometimes 1 or none.

The real question is if you can get one of the guys you like, especially if you are picking later int he round.

I suspect that the Packers didn't think Love would be in range when they picked at 30. I saw some rankings of him in the teens overall. To see him at 26 they probably said, WTF, that's value and moved up and got him. Not much more strategy beyond that. You take the players where they fall and if you see value on your board you try to make it happen.

@The Heckler posted:

If baffles me the amount of Packers fans who want to move on from #12.  It truly does and I don't think many remember what the Packers QB situation was like before #4 and #12.

Anyhow, it is only my personal opinion but I think that Rodgers never lost his form but he is running a different system that is way more balanced than MM's and he also doesn't have the weapons he needs right now.   

So my guess?  The Packers do NOT trade or release AR anytime soon because of of the cap hit and I don't think Gute/MLF will do it unless they know for sure they have the heir apparent whether that's Love or someone else. 

I haven't seen many, if any, fans saying they want to move on from him. Laying out what is gonna happen doesn't mean they want that to happen, it's just acknowledging that in the NFL, that's how things work.

@The Heckler posted:

If baffles me the amount of Packers fans who want to move on from #12. 

Anyhow, it is only my personal opinion but I think that Rodgers never lost his form but he is running a different system that is way more balanced than MM's and he also doesn't have the weapons he needs right now.   

 

I think some fans do, but most don't. Chongo posted it above, the front office and the HC want Aaron to run the offense as designed, but its hard when you've been free-lancing at an elite level for so long.

When AR was first playing, MM said: "He isn't averse to throwing boring passes"
That was a shot at Favray and his improvisational style- the same style that made him exciting to watch AND drove Holmgren/Sherman nuts.

Now we're seeing the same thing with AR, he's so used to running the show, he chafes under the yoke of running the offense exactly the way MLF drew it up.

And in many cases, the changes AR makes at the LOS got GB out of a lousy play call and MLF has acknowledged as much. MLF is a novice play caller, while AR is a maestro at the LOS.  AR covered up lots of MLF whiffs too - but all the rhetoric is focused only around the plays AR left on the field ( which he did)

As far as the weapons thing, I really think that's overblown. Rodgers-Adams-Jones is a spectacular set of triplets and all you really need are some complimentary pieces.
The media pounded it into everyone's brains MUST HAVE MOAR WRs and so that became the central talking point for months - especially with the large number of WRs available. But this is MLFs offense and its not a WR -centric attack. Part of the reason for that is that the match-ups are better at TE vs LB than WR vs CB

MM offense flooded the field with WRs and won match-ups because our 4th WR was always better than the opponents 4th CB. MLF chooses different match-ups to exploit, hence the investment in TEs and RBs. Its a different approach and fans haven't caught up to it yet, they're still living in WR -World.
Hence all the unhappiness post-draft

IMO Rodgers has plenty of weapons, he just needs to run the offense that MLF spent his career refining. GB was 3 points/ game away from being a Top 10 offense and 5 pts/ game away from being a Top 5 offense.
A few tweaks here and there and a RB who can close out games...
GB offense will be a top performer in 2020 with the roster they have

@Timpranillo posted:

I haven't seen many, if any, fans saying they want to move on from him. Laying out what is gonna happen doesn't mean they want that to happen, it's just acknowledging that in the NFL, that's how things work.

Definitely not many in this forum that is for sure because we are the smart Packers fans.  I have noticed it quite a bit on social media which I know I should take with a grain of salt that's for damn sure. 

Satori, GREAT point about the fans haven't gotten used to the different style of offense the Packer use now vs. what we had with MM for all those years.  

@AtTheMurph posted:

There's always a good crop of QBs coming out. 3 first round QBs are about the norm. Sometimes 4 and occasional 5 but there are also 2 and sometimes 1 or none.

The real question is if you can get one of the guys you like, especially if you are picking later int he round.

I suspect that the Packers didn't think Love would be in range when they picked at 30. I saw some rankings of him in the teens overall. To see him at 26 they probably said, WTF, that's value and moved up and got him. Not much more strategy beyond that. You take the players where they fall and if you see value on your board you try to make it happen.

Interesting because Sam Farmer, LA Times NFL writer, saw him falling out of the first round.

@The Heckler posted:

Anyhow, it is only my personal opinion but I think that Rodgers never lost his form but he is running a different system that is way more balanced than MM's and he also doesn't have the weapons he needs right now.   

So my guess?  The Packers do NOT trade or release AR anytime soon because of of the cap hit and I don't think Gute/MLF will do it unless they know for sure they have the heir apparent whether that's Love or someone else. 

I've had the same opinion about Rodgers until just recently.

Now that we don't have live sports to watch my DVR is recording all broadcast Packers games. And it seems that the 2009 and 2010 season have been pretty well represented. I think I've seen 4 or 5 in the past couple of weeks.

One thing i will tell you is that Rodgers is not nearly the same player that he was. He doesn't drive the ball anywhere near what he used to do and isn't nearly as accurate.

The dude was incredible. The throws were spectacular, spot on, fast and hard. He'd get into windows that were minuscule. His throws on slants and posts were things of beauty. I just don't see that same arm and I don't see the same accuracy. And it's not a small change either.

@The Heckler posted:

If baffles me the amount of Packers fans who want to move on from #12.  It truly does and I don't think many remember what the Packers QB situation was like before #4 and #12....

 

Not just you, Heck', I've read and heard so much after the draft about ARod, the Packers, and future plans for them both. Right now, the consensus is one of them moves on in 2 years, and Love will be the man from then on.

And it only took 3 days to figure all this out! Why, it's so easy....

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