Rodgers Contract and Future

@packerboi posted:

I heard an interview with Andrew Brandt last week and he believes if the Packers and Rodgers win it all, it probably INCREASES the probability GB moves on from Rodgers via trade or he retires. He said while it won’t give LaFleur and Gute an unlimited pass, the reality is there will be a leeway given to the Front Office to not be pressured to win another SB “for years”.

He also said you don’t draft players in the 1st round for them to sit and sit. Taking Love means they are expecting him to play and play very soon. The days of QBs sitting for 2- 3 years aren’t the reality in todays NFL anymore.

I thought they were interesting comments considering Brandts knowledge base of the Packers and how front offices can work in the NFL

Thats an idiotic mindset.   I don't care what round a guy is drafted in.  He see's the field when he can contribute at a level that helps the team win.

That mindset is how you compound mistakes.

@packerboi posted:

I heard an interview with Andrew Brandt last week and he believes if the Packers and Rodgers win it all, it probably INCREASES the probability GB moves on from Rodgers via trade or he retires. He said while it won’t give LaFleur and Gute an unlimited pass, the reality is there will be a leeway given to the Front Office to not be pressured to win another SB “for years”.

He also said you don’t draft players in the 1st round for them to sit and sit. Taking Love means they are expecting him to play and play very soon. The days of QBs sitting for 2- 3 years aren’t the reality in todays NFL anymore.

I thought they were interesting comments considering Brandts knowledge base of the Packers and how front offices can work in the NFL

Sounds to me like Brandt doubling-down on the opinion he has had since Love was drafted that Rodgers would be done in GB after the '21 season. And, I think he was correct with that opinion (like the GB FO) until Rodgers smoked the league in '20. Brandt continued this opinion through the summer, and that seemed reasonable to me. But, since about week 4 or 5 it seems that Rodgers has found his center and is liking where he is and sees his future is in GB.

Brandt's still thinking like a FO guy.

@BrainDed posted:

Thats an idiotic mindset.   I don't care what round a guy is drafted in.  He see's the field when he can contribute at a level that helps the team win.

That mindset is how you compound mistakes.

It also sounds like guys with gigantic egos that want to make sure they win it with all their guys. Like it or not, MLF and Gute will have to eventually show they can win without Rodgers to elevate themselves to a HOF level. But I hope that's not what's driving any decisions after this year.

Before you worry about your long-term legacy, first let's see you can actually win it with a trump card no one else has (Rodgers).

I think Brandt is looking at this in a sort of Devils Advocate kind of way. So let’s say GB in fact collects a world championship at the end of the season.

Rodgers decides he wants to keep playing but the FO, cap strapped, moves on from Rodgers, Z Smith and Adams.

Rodgers and GB negotiate an agreeable trade and the Packers receive 3 number 1 picks and another day 2 pick. Also keep in mind this a lousy draft for QBs in 2022.

GB is now fresh off a world title, now has a young QB, that right or wrong , they believe is ready to be the next franchise QB. They’ve collected a ransom for Rodgers plus shed cap dollars. They then use those number 1 extra picks to help re-tool the team over the next 3 seasons as Love improves each year and are in much better cap shape.

If you take out the emotions of wanting Rodgers to still be here, and the above actually would happen, I think Brandt’s point is those are the kind of moves and decisions smart franchises make. Without loyalty, fan fare etc playing into it  

And maybe that’s not all that crazy…

It's not crazy, but they could also extend AR, keep winning, and when the time comes do a quick rebuild as we've seen teams do. Gutekunst seems to have a pretty good eye for talent.

Also, what if they get to the Owl and lose on a last second FG?

I think we are in an Occam's razor situation.

@packerboi posted:

I think Brandt is looking at this in a sort of Devils Advocate kind of way. So let’s say GB in fact collects a world championship at the end of the season.

Rodgers decides he wants to keep playing but the FO, cap strapped, moves on from Rodgers, Z Smith and Adams.

Rodgers and GB negotiate an agreeable trade and the Packers receive 3 number 1 picks and another day 2 pick. Also keep in mind this a lousy draft for QBs in 2022.

GB is now fresh off a world title, now has a young QB, that right or wrong , they believe is ready to be the next franchise QB. They’ve collected a ransom for Rodgers plus shed cap dollars. They then use those number 1 extra picks to help re-tool the team over the next 3 seasons as Love improves each year and are in much better cap shape.

If you take out the emotions of wanting Rodgers to still be here, and the above actually would happen, I think Brandt’s point is those are the kind of moves and decisions smart franchises make. Without loyalty, fan fare etc playing into it  

And maybe that’s not all that crazy…

Walk away from a HOF QB that can still play at an MVP level.  There is only one scenario why Rodgers isn't signed to this team, he wants nothing to do with Green Bay.

They let Rodgers walk or fucked things up where he doesn't want to stay that fucking FO should be burned to the ground.

Brandt's scenario has always been based on the assumption that the organization would feel that Love was ready to assume the role of starter next year. While lots of the assessments of Love strike me as very premature (and ridiculous), saying that he's unlikely to be ready to start next year isn't. I expected a bit more in the way of development by now and I suspect the team feels the same way.

Brandt is one of the rare guys that really understands both sides of the equation - the player and the FO.  To that extent, I trust him and his sentiments a lot more than most insiders.

Personally, it would be somewhat crazy to think they would move on from Rodgers given his level of play but it is the NFL and weird and stupid shit happen all the time.

What I find problematic is the assessment that everyone would be satisfied if the Packers win the Super Bowl so that they can do whatever they want after that.  The disappointment with both the Favre and Rodgers eras was that they couldn't replicate their Super Bowl success after the first one.  To deliberately sabotage the team by jettisoning Rodgers if they were to win it all would not be met with warm acceptance.  Brandt may understand the FO AND players, but he apparently doesn't understand fans.

sorry, but i don't accept the premise that the plan has always been to move on from rodgers after 2021.  i think that was certainly a possible outcome when they drafted love, but the circumstances have not played out in a way where such a plan makes sense anymore.  you don't cast aside the reigning mvp for an unproven qb.  that would be malpractice. 

How quickly we forget.

A lot of people were pissed when they moved on from Favre.  In retrospect, it was the right thing to do regardless of fan reaction.

Is this situation the same?   Not exactly, but I also know that it’s really not easy to win a ring even if you have a top level QB like Rodgers.

From the perspective of Brandt, I think you need to be aware of the fans, but also understand this isn’t Madden 2022 or fantasy football.  It’s a business and a really tough and cutthroat business.

In the end, either they will try to retain Rodgers or they won’t.  But if Rodgers wants to move on (for whatever reason) there’s not much they can do about it.  The good news is it’s likely the Packers would get back a massive amount of draft capital and likely several players in return.  Rodgers isn’t Matt Stafford.  And if you franchise and deal Adams as a package deal there’s literally no limit to what you can get back in return.

All I know is this - if they don’t at least get to the Super Bowl this year the season was a failure, and maybe he’s jinxed or it’s just not meant to happen.  But we’ve seen this movie before.  Think 1997 and 2004 and 2007 and 2011 and 2014 and last year.  It was all there in front of them and they couldn’t seal the deal.

I think it really depends on what they think of Love, and really only they, certainly not Brandt or anyone else knows this. I also think if they do extend AR to say a 3 year deal that it would be a deal where his cap hit would automatically a huge hit.

I am not saying Rodgers would do what Brady has done with his salary, but it's not out of the question either. If he really wants to remain here and keep the team competitive, there's no way he can do it with a 40+ million dollar cap number.

And maybe Rodgers is at a point, if they do win another SB, where money isn't a number 1 priority and keeping his family of players/brothers is. 

I look at this a bit differently.  Sure, some of the decision hinges on what you think about Love, but it’s not 100% dependent on him.  My personal feeling is Rodgers gives them the best chance to win and win big the next 2-3 years.   But that’s not guaranteed (see last year and hopefully not this year again).

I’m not a cap expert, but I think it’s going to be very difficult to keep Rodgers at a high salary and fill out a decent roster around him.  Gute worked his magic this year, but there is no way they can retain Adams and Z and Jaire if they bring back Rodgers at market value.  So much of Rodgers success is tied to having a guy like Adams and other weapons around him and having good players on D is important as well.

As a fan, I want to see them win a title and more titles and have Rodgers ride off into the sunset.  I just don’t know that it’s a realistic expectation.  Honestly, the fact this team only has 2 championships over the last 25 years is a major disappointment.

What I do know is this - if either Rodgers or the team decide to move on after this year the team may be able to reset fairly quickly given what they would likely net in return of a trade.  I’m talking multiple high draft picks and probably a few players as well.  If not, I don’t make the deal.

Just finish what you started last year and go wire to wire and get that ring and then figure things out from there.

i suppose it is possible that love will be a quality nfl starting quarterback, but i'm not optimistic based on his play to date

@Tschmack posted:

How quickly we forget.

A lot of people were pissed when they moved on from Favre.  In retrospect, it was the right thing to do regardless of fan reaction.

Not remotely the same as Favre.

@Jessie Clark posted:

i suppose it is possible that love will be a quality nfl starting quarterback, but i'm not optimistic based on his play to date

IMO, way too small of a sample size for us fans to assess his value/ability as a starting QB.

Regardless of what we all think, if AR is true to his word, we'll know where his future is in about 6-8 weeks.

@Henry posted:

Not remotely the same as Favre.

People seem to always forget the 5 years of end of season tear fests about retirement

Or all the other things that ushered him out the door.

The FO will not JUST push him out the door, IMO they will do whatever they can to keep him,  if he wants to stay he will, if not he won’t.

Pretty simple.

Whatever AR actually believed/thought about the organization this past summer/off-season, I think if he wanted a location change he would have/could have forced one.

I am still reluctant to believe he will be back next year for the reason that Rodgers' personality seems to be someone who doesn't get past things.

The question I have is that everyone assumes that they would get a boatload of #1 picks. Since Rodgers gets to choose which teams he would go to, I only see one or two possibilities (I am assuming the Packers would never trade him in conference)  What happens when Rodgers says he wants to be traded to the Donkeys and the Donkeys say they are willing to give up a #2 in return.  I hope the Packers and Rodgers have figured that part out.

Besides the Donkeys, what teams would he go to? Raiders, Steelers, Colts?

@GratefulPack posted:

I am still reluctant to believe he will be back next year for the reason that Rodgers' personality seems to be someone who doesn't get past things.

The question I have is that everyone assumes that they would get a boatload of #1 picks. Since Rodgers gets to choose which teams he would go to, I only see one or two possibilities (I am assuming the Packers would never trade him in conference)  What happens when Rodgers says he wants to be traded to the Donkeys and the Donkeys say they are willing to give up a #2 in return.  I hope the Packers and Rodgers have figured that part out.

Besides the Donkeys, what teams would he go to? Raiders, Steelers, Colts?

Who says Rodgers gets to pick the teams he’d go to? He’s still under contract for 2022, not a FA until 2023.

@ilcuqui posted:

Who says Rodgers gets to pick the teams he’d go to?

Reality says he gets to pick or at least have a short list.
Any team trading for AR is going to want to extend or re-do the contract so they have more than 1 year secured. They're not going to trade a boatload of picks without a serious commitment. Rodgers can refuse to negotiate or tell them
"I have no interest in playing for your team." That kills the deal

That's the reality. And GB isn't sending him to Siberia after all he's done for Titletown.

^^^ Correct. The trade would have to be amenable to GB AND Rodgers.  If they mutually agree to say a trade to DEN, the Packers aren't shipping him for #2 pick and that's it. They'd sooner have him play in 2022.

The reason for speculation as to what a team would give up is largely do to market value. Just look at what the Rams gave up to get Stafford. And he's no where near where Rodgers is. The advantage to a team like Denver or Cleveland is that trading for him this offseason ensures he never hits FA and there is no UFA bidding war for him in 2023.

As Satori pointed out, these teams won't do it unless they know they'll get him for the next 3-4 years.

Steelers have an aging roster and not sure their draft picks are worth much.  Raiders are slightly better and could (in theory) send Carr back in return.  Indy dealt their first rounder so that counts them out.

Denver is the obvious choice.  They have picks 9, 40, 60, and 75.   Picks beyond 2022 won’t have as much value because you assume they will be decent w/Rodgers.  Denver also has a lot of good young players that are under team control for a bit and cap space to absorb Rodgers contract.

If you said give us picks 9, 40, 60 and 75 in 2022 and a 1 in and 2 in 2023 and 1 in 2024 and a couple of players of this group- Surtain, Jeudy, Fant, Okwuegbunam, and Dre’Mont Jones I’m not sure how you pass that up.  

@Pikes Peak posted:

The FO will not JUST push him out the door, IMO they will do whatever they can to keep him,  if he wants to stay he will, if not he won’t.

Pretty simple.

Exactly.  All the speculation is absurd unless Rodgers says he wants nothing to do with the Packers.  Otherwise there is no discussion.

It would be fucking insane to talk about "the future" with Love or anybody else.  This is where Ballz makes his money.  If he's talking about the feasibility of a Rodgers contract not fitting into future plans I will fucking rochambeau him myself. 

@Tschmack posted:

Steelers have an aging roster and not sure their draft picks are worth much.  Raiders are slightly better and could (in theory) send Carr back in return.  Indy dealt their first rounder so that counts them out.

Denver is the obvious choice.  They have picks 9, 40, 60, and 75.   Picks beyond 2022 won’t have as much value because you assume they will be decent w/Rodgers.  Denver also has a lot of good young players that are under team control for a bit and cap space to absorb Rodgers contract.

If you said give us picks 9, 40, 60 and 75 in 2022 and a 1 in and 2 in 2023 and 1 in 2024 and a couple of players of this group- Surtain, Jeudy, Fant, Okwuegbunam, and Dre’Mont Jones I’m not sure how you pass that up.  

So, three firsts, three seconds and one third and a couple of potential pro bowlers?  Do you really expect that for what would probably be two years of Rodgers?

Lots of speculating has been going on since the end of last season.

There was speculation/assumption that his issues were some huge chasm with the FO, yet we never heard that from AR.

@Henry posted:

Exactly.  All the speculation is absurd unless Rodgers says he wants nothing to do with the Packers.  Otherwise there is no discussion.

Lots of comments from Rodgers the past few weeks and earlier into the season that indicate he actually likes the Packers. Hell, beyond his specific comments about his relationship with "Brian", he had recently mentioned Russ and Mark in a positive statement.

@GBFanForLife posted:

People seem to always forget the 5 years of end of season tear fests about retirement

Also, the fact that Favre's last pass of the previous season was one of the worst playoff throws a QB has ever made in the NFC title game. Amazingly, it's probably only the third worst playoff throw of Favre's career. He had already thrown the classic heave it up for grabs in OT throw in the 4th and 26 Philly game. His worst throw of all-time (and up there with the worst throw in NFL playoff history with the Wilson interception at the 1 in the Super Bowl) was yet to come - the interception when they were already in FG position in the Vikings-Saints playoff game.

Many of us were blind to it, but Favre should have been replaced earlier. If you look at his career between Holmgren and McCarthy's 2nd year (1998-2006) he was basically Jay Cutler. Favre averaged 20 interceptions a year over those 8 years (191 TDs, 155 Ints). He averaged over 2 Ints a game in 6 playoff games in that period (9 TDs, 14 ints). In some of those games, an average game manager wins those playoff games.

In Rodgers down period (2017-18), he threw 41 TDs with 8 interceptions over 18 games. In his playoff career, he has 45 TDs/13 intereptions. He hasn't been otherworldly in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl - he only has 31 TDs against 10 interceptions (3.1 ratio). That 3.1 ratio is well above the playoff performances of Brady (83 TD/38 Ints), Manning (40/25), Big Ben (34/28), and Montana (45/21) - the four "modern" QBs that have won multiple Super Bowls.

Rodgers career QB rating in the playoffs is over 100 and is #4 all-time (Starr!, Warner, and M. Ryan). Favre is 24 all-time, and if you just look at his performance after Holmgren was his coach, he falls towards the bottom of the list all-time with guys from another era who threw a lot more interceptions overall (Bradshaw, etc.).

You can't even put moving on from Rodgers into the same conversation as moving on from Favre. Moving on from Favre to a league-average guy was probably at worst a push. Moving on from Rodgers to a league-average guy is probably the difference between a 13-win team and a 7-win team.

@H5 posted:

Lots of speculating has been going on since the end of last season.

There was speculation/assumption that his issues were some huge chasm with the FO, yet we never heard that from AR.

Lots of comments from Rodgers the past few weeks and earlier into the season that indicate he actually likes the Packers. Hell, beyond his specific comments about his relationship with "Brian", he had recently mentioned Russ and Mark in a positive statement.

Exactly.  Which is why Gort was un-Gunted.  Yes, there are hurdles but if Gort took the lesson to heart and understands the relationship part of being a GM then things look good.  If Rodgers is truly assuaged then I'm sure he's going to be pretty amenable in contract talks. 

There is a fraction of doubt in my mind about Rodgers staying and that's only because he's a super troll.

@Henry posted:

There is a fraction of doubt in my mind about Rodgers staying and that's only because he's a super troll.

I wish I was as optimistic.  I think he is saying all the right things right now b/c his rep has taken a hit and not doing so would cause another distraction. Second to his "hurt feelings" he wants a SB and will play for whoever gives him the best chance (which is why he said there is no way he is playing for the Bears), even with fancy contract magic, this team probably will not be as talented next year as this year.

Just win the whole damn thing this year and it lessens the anxiety for what happens beyond this season.  

Fall short and it becomes the 2020 Bucks offseason all over again.

Where has his "rep" actually taken a hit though?

Lots of talk still today about how many picks he would bring GB if they moved him. Fans of other teams hate him more now?  Fringe Packers fan no longer watching? He lost the Prevea Health endorsement, but how much of a hit is that really? Did he lose other endorsement deals? Not that I recall.

Playing for whoever gives him the best chance over the next 3-4 seasons?

Green Bay tops that list, and then probably Denver, though their offense likely takes a hit for them to swing a trade - assuming Rodgers would go there. Not sure about who after that wouldn't be a longer term development to get to serious SB contender.

And for those who think Rodgers still has a chip on his shoulder and hurt feelings about the off-season, that may be reduced because he's been proven right and the team has apparently met his expectations.  A contract extension (and God willing some additional Super Bowl rings) would further prove him right.  That's what he lives for.  As we've been saying, he may realize - if Adams stays - that he's in a pretty good situation with the Packers.

@packerboi posted:

If you take out the emotions of wanting Rodgers to still be here, and the above actually would happen, I think Brandt’s point is those are the kind of moves and decisions smart franchises make. Without loyalty, fan fare etc playing into it  

And maybe that’s not all that crazy…

It's not emotional.   Actively trying to walk away from back to back MVP quarterback does not sound logical.    This isn't 1990 where we have to worry about him getting beat to a pulp.    As a QB he is extremely protected, as a back to back MVP QB, the defense can't even fart in his general direction.

Yes, it's crazy to actively try to move that player off your roster.

@H5 posted:

Where has his "rep" actually taken a hit though?

Lots of talk still today about how many picks he would bring GB if they moved him. Fans of other teams hate him more now?  Fringe Packers fan no longer watching? He lost the Prevea Health endorsement, but how much of a hit is that really? Did he lose other endorsement deals? Not that I recall.

Terry Bradshaw doesn’t like him.

Fuck the chip, win a SB

Fuck the cup, put it in my hand for a dime.

Name that movie!

Bad News Bears?

@bdplant posted:

Terry Bradshaw doesn’t like him.

Completely overlooked this. I need to rethink my statement(s).