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In this case, an oft-cited factor is that the Packers’ receiving corps was weakened by injuries, including the loss of Randall Cobb earlier in the game. But, as I discussed in the footnotes, anything that makes the Packers weaker relative to the Cardinals is likely to hurt their chances in overtime more than their chances of converting the 2-point try.

Thus, our best (and perhaps slightly conservative) estimate is that the Packers cost themselves about 7.9 percent of a win by kicking rather than going for two,

The chances of winning in OT were lesser than completing a 2 point conversion even if you had Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Jerry Rice. That is just a statistical fact.

Being down to your 4th, 5th and 6th WRs is a VERY valid argument for avoiding extending the game. In every game, at every level of organised football. I don't know how you can disagree with that.

The Packers took the lead, and then came back to tie the game, all AFTER Cobb went down.

Yet late in the 4th quarter, with a chance to win the game, they went 4 and out and then on their next possession, had to rely on a 4th down hail mary to even get a first down.......after Cobb went down.

Other than the fluke big run by Phat Eddie, the offense was sputtering without Cobb.

Last edited by FreeSafety

I've still seen ZERO links to any articles of a head coach being critized for going for 2 for the win at the end of a game instead of a PAT and not making it.  Everyone's argument for the PAT seems to involve the CRITICISM McCarthy  would be getting if he went for 2 and didn't make it.

I've seen no evidence of anyone ever having been criticized for it before.

Hungry5 posted:

YaYa. You have no clue that Belichick would go for 2 in that situation.

 

It wasn't a 2 point conversion, but Belichick got some criticism for going for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28 in a game against the Colts in 2009 up 6 with 2:08 left.  A conversion ends the game and a failure sets up the Colts in a much better position to win. It's essentially the same type of situation except that the defense did have to guard much more the field (12 yards of depth vs. essentially the whole field).

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes...-down-decision/?_r=0

 

Hungry5 posted:
MichiganPacker posted:
Hungry5 posted:

YaYa. You have no clue that Belichick would go for 2 in that situation.

 

It wasn't a 2 point conversion

The point is it was even a lower risk proposition than a 2 point conversion since the Colts still had to score a TD even with a stop, but picking up the 2 yards essentially would have ended the game. Even given that, Belichick was still criticized (I was watching the game live and thought it was a great decision).

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