"The-packers-are-dynasty-that-never-was" - Article

Hard to argue with a single thing he said... unfortunately. I don't know about Rodgers' decline, but I do know that he has to shift his mentality to play within the system if he wants Brady's longevity. To keep doing what he's doing is folly. 

Secondly, f*** the Pats and their snooty beat writers.  

The system hasn't changed in 10 years. From the outside looking in it appears he plays better when the system breaks down.

Hungry5 posted:

The system hasn't changed in 10 years. From the outside looking in it appears he plays better when the system breaks down.

Um....that is the system

Ouch. Truth hurts. 

With all of the rule changes meant to protect QBs and increase offensive numbers, I wonder if it’s going to have the unintended effect of making all-world QBs less important to their teams. You can’t hit them anymore so durability should be less of an issue. It’s also easier to play the position because DBs can’t touch receivers without getting flagged.

I’m not saying that teams won’t always need quality play at the position, but there are several QBs in the league that are playing close to or just as well as AR, and for a lot less money....and those teams are winning.  

You can argue that the Packers haven’t surrounded AR with high enough quality players and coaches, and that may be true, but perhaps Gute could afford a few more impact players (on defense) if he wasn’t paying so much for his QB. 

I don’t know if it’s true or not, but it sure seems like there are a handful of QBs who are putting up big numbers week after week and winning. Meanwhile, the Packers have shown over the least year that unless AR plays lights out all the time, the team can’t win a game.

Not much there to disagree with. Team really has appeared to be on a downward trend since the catastrophic Seattle choke-job. 

Capers hanging around past his expiration date contributed to all that.

the article omitted a humongous contributing factor - the Packers defense with Capers at the helm.  I'd like to see how many rings Brady would have amassed under those circumstances.

YATittle posted:

Capers hanging around past his expiration date contributed to all that.

Didn't see this until after my post!

It really comes down to BB+TB >MM+AR.  Flip the variables and everything changes.  The author of that article is full of bahston shite if doesn't think AR would be better than TB with BB as HC.

If only Rodgers had all day to stand in one spot and pass and his receivers had 10 yard cushions he would be better than Brady.

I recall three or four years ago that if a poster claimed BB was a better coach than MM that poster got demolished....things have changed.

Pikes Peak posted:

I recall three or four years ago that if a poster claimed BB was a better coach than MM that poster got demolished....things have changed.

No, they haven't changed in GB, and that's the problem.

Pikes Peak posted:

I recall three or four years ago that if a poster claimed BB was a better coach than MM that poster got demolished....things have changed.

I agree that the window has closed, but I would argue there were four major contributing factors to not winning more than one championship that don't get discussed enough. MM's shelf life is up and Rodgers is sadly probably in the late Dan Marino/Denver Bronco Payton Manning phase of his career - still great, but not otherworldly.  

1. One was just a horrific, tragic event. That was Philbin's son dying the week before the Giants playoff game. How could that not affect the team?

2. The second was this play. Losing Nick Collins (who had an outside chance of being a HOFer) was the beginning of the end for Capers. Collins covered up a lot of mistakes with his speed and talent. After he got hurt, 20 yard plays turned into 50 yard plays. Collins was done at 28 years old. He probably had at least 5 more great years (and he had just made the Pro Bowl the final 3 years he played).

3. TT. The inability to move on from certain subpar players and coaches was a TT staple. Continuing to play guys like AJ Hawk, Richard Rodgers, and Brad Jones for several years past what should have been their end date cost them a game or two a year during what should have been the middle of the dynasty. That turned potential Packer home playoff games into road games.

TT kept guys around way too long who were satisfied to sign team-friendly deals - obviously managing the salary cap is critical, but you shouldn't keep guys around just because they are cheap after it's clear they need to be replaced. On the other hand, if a great player started to complain about a contract - he was gone even if he had a year or two left in him (Cullen Jenkins, Josh Sitton, TJ Lang).

Keeping Dom Capers after the Kaepernik playoff debacle was a huge mistake. You can excuse getting surprised in the first drive or two by that strategy, but not continuing to get beat by a play scheme that high school and college defenses prepare against.

4. Relying on draft and development almost exclusively instead of using free agency more to sign some savvy vets as backups. Screwups like the Bostick play (and I'm just using that as one example) are less likely to happen with guys that have played for years than with UDFAs. TT loved UDFAs - because he had been one of them.

Belichick is probably the top football mind of the last 30 years (I'd still put Walsh above him because Walsh's West Coast philosophy completely changed offensive football). But the other big thing about Belichick is that he is completely ruthless. Other than Brady, he gets rid of every player he has as soon as there is any sign of slipping - even guys that played hurt and put everything out there -  Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Richard Seymour, Jamie Collins, and on and on. No hanging on to anyone for sentimental purposes. Things like letting Donald Driver take up a roster spot in 2011 would not happen. How many former Patriots talk about how much they love Belichick?

Gsands posted:

If only Rodgers had all day to stand in one spot and pass and his receivers had 10 yard cushions he would be better than Brady.

He was better than Brady last night. Collinsworth went orgasmic about a pump fake to a screen pass that Brady then threw deep on. Tramon then missed a tackle (I'd give him some leeway as it was his first game at safety and he has to adjust to closing on guys from those types of angles).

Rodgers was running around on what seemed like every drop back. Brady literally went into a fetal position on the 2-3 times guys broke through the line and had a free shot at him. That happens to Rodgers 2-3 times a quarter and more often than not he makes the first guy miss.

Brady looks like he's about 50 years old trying to throw when he's rolling out or on the move.

Dom Capers not being summarily fired after that 2012 playoff loss told me everything I needed to know about MM. Which really is no different than almost every one of his bad assistant hires. He sat forever on Slocum. He sat forever on Capers. He sat forever on Zook. He sat forever on Bennett. Good enough is more than good enough for him. 

MM not being summarily fired after the Seattle playoff debacle in 2014 told me everything I needed to know about TT. He was an old scout that wanted to scout players to draft and little else. 

They are a stale football team that has benefited from the worst division in the NFL, and come playoff time underacheived or flat out shit the bed consistently under MM save one year.  MM is little more than Marty Schotenheimer with the benefit of the best QB in the game that was able to overcome the coaching one year. 

The rest of the league continues to evolve around MM, while he does what he does. 

If Gutekinksi continues with another year of MM and this incompetence, my tongue in cheek statement that no one at 1265 cares about anything other than their mall/apartment/titletown real estate venture will be more reality than joke. 

Pikes Peak posted:

I recall three or four years ago that if a poster claimed BB was a better coach than MM that poster got demolished....things have changed.

TT is a god
Capers is fine, problem is talent. 
(Don't ask me to explain how those two facts existed at same time but they did)
MM is as good as BB.
Resigning AJ Hawk is a great idea because see line 1.

Pikes Peak posted:

I recall three or four years ago that if a poster claimed BB was a better coach than MM that poster got demolished....things have changed.

How about when posters began unfavorably comparing Ted's draft and develop only approach to Belichek's reliance upon free agency and trades to add veterans?

For some, it was like how could any Packer fan express such blasphemous thoughts. 

The times, they sure are a changin'.

Timpranillo posted:

Dom Capers not being summarily fired after that 2012 playoff loss told me everything I needed to know about MM. Which really is no different than almost every one of his bad assistant hires. He sat forever on Slocum. He sat forever on Capers. He sat forever on Zook. He sat forever on Bennett. Good enough is more than good enough for him. 

MM not being summarily fired after the Seattle playoff debacle in 2014 told me everything I needed to know about TT. He was an old scout that wanted to scout players to draft and little else. 

They are a stale football team that has benefited from the worst division in the NFL, and come playoff time underacheived or flat out shit the bed consistently under MM save one year.  MM is little more than Marty Schotenheimer with the benefit of the best QB in the game that was able to overcome the coaching one year. 

The rest of the league continues to evolve around MM, while he does what he does. 

If Gutekinksi continues with another year of MM and this incompetence, my tongue in cheek statement that no one at 1265 cares about anything other than their mall/apartment/titletown real estate venture will be more reality than joke. 

This.

Pikes Peak posted:

I recall three or four years ago that if a poster claimed BB was a better coach than MM that poster got demolished....things have changed.

Think MM got the best of BB in the '14 game at Lambeau and that was a fair point at the time. Pretty clearly last night demonstrated just how much things have changed.

At this stage in his career, MM is playing it too safe. He remains too loyal to guys that should have been shown the door way before they were (Dom, Slocum, etc.); he remains too loyal to a well-worn playbook; he remains too loyal to trying to do what we do, e.g., not running Jones enough, putting WRs in one-on-ones all the time, etc. I don't know how much input MM had into keeping or jettisoning players, but I would hope he had some and was able to tell TT to dump a guy. If not and it was all Ted, then TT should have left five years earlier. To be below .500 halfway through the year with this team and this QB is a waste. 

Yup..   Leadership needs to be able to adapt and innovate.   MM is way too slow to accept his and the teams flaws.    Just sits there pounding the square peg over and over again and once in a while, because he has the Rodgers hammer, he drives it home.   

It was so glaring last night.   You have Brady throwing something like 8 straight incomplete passes.   Our D is riding high and feeling confident.   The youngsters are foaming at the mouth ready to make a play.    BB and McDaniels go to the gadget plays to use their confidence against them.    All the plays were based off of over pursuit.   The reverses, the double screen pass and the fake WR screen that went for a TD to Gordon.   

They adapted, in game, and beat the Defense with a new tool specifically designed to combat the challenge they were facing.     MM kept swinging the same hammer. 

Well said Brainded.

phaedrus posted:

the article omitted a humongous contributing factor - the Packers defense with Capers at the helm.  I'd like to see how many rings Brady would have amassed under those circumstances.

I would bet good money that even Brady wouldn't have more than one Super Bowl given those circumstances.  One advantage Brady has always had is well coached defenses that made the team more balanced.  Aaron? well we all know that story only too well.  What I would like to have known is how many Aaron would have with a defense to back him up.  I knos it's a what if thing but it sure would be interestintg.

At the end of the regular season in 2011, the Packers were defending Super Bowl champions, were 15-1 and had won 26 of their last 27 games in which Rodgers had been able to finish (not counting the concussion that happened in the Lions 2010 game and the following week at New England). To extend that further, they had won 32 of the last 35 games Rodgers had finished going back to the middle of 2009. The three losses were at Pittsburgh by a point on the final play of the game in 2009, the Arizona playoff facemask OT loss, and the 19-14 loss to Kansas City. So, 3 losses in 35 games being outscored by a total of 6 points in regulation.

They were lining up in-their-primes Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb, and Jermichael Finley and were unstoppable on offense. They scored over 30 points 11 times during the 2011 regular season and over 40 points SIX times.

In 2011, the Patriots had gone 7 years without winning a title (which would extend to a 9 year gap), had a 34 year old QB how wasn't very mobile even when he was younger, and it looked like their window had closed. They didn't capitalize on a 16-0 year and had lost to Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Jake Plummer QB'd teams in the playoffs. They had the 3 titles in the early 2000s (and lucked out to get one after winning the "tuck rule" game). but that looked to be it.

The run Belichick has gone on the last 7 years is the best coaching job in NFL history. In 2011, it was clear he was a better coach than MM, but not exponentially so., and if the 2011 Packers win the Super Bowl, MM is in the same conversation as BB at that point.

The difference is that BB adjusted and made another mini-dynasty. MM peaked in 2010-11 and has shown no ability to adjust to allow for a second act.

The fumble was a big play, no denying that but there was a whole quarter left, the game was tied.  No reason for a team to completely fall apart.  

To follow up on MM's record, that 35 game stretch with Rodgers I referenced above was 32-3.

The rest of his career, MM is 92-71-2.

The 2 and a half year run in 2009-2011 his teams won at about a 15-1 rate per season.

The rest of his coaching career his teams win at about a 9-7 pace per season.

Pikes Peak posted:

The fumble was a big play, no denying that but there was a whole quarter left, the game was tied.  

Believe I read they only got two first downs after Jones' fumble. 

michiganjoe posted:

Pikes Peak posted:

The fumble was a big play, no denying that but there was a whole quarter left, the game was tied.  

Believe I read they only got two first downs after Jones' fumble. 

The offense, which includes AR, just disintegrated after that fumble.

They fell for the lie, which TT fostered, that he knew Rodgers would fall to him, thus they basked in TT's alleged genius way too long. TT and MM should have been gone after that Seattle debacle.

I really think one of MM's problems started when officials started calling penalties on all that downfield blocking the receivers did when the pass was still in the air and pick plays. I remember seeing James Jones walling off 3  guys as
Jennings was still waiting for the ball. Hasn't been the same since.

excalibur posted:

michiganjoe posted:

Pikes Peak posted:

The fumble was a big play, no denying that but there was a whole quarter left, the game was tied.  

Believe I read they only got two first downs after Jones' fumble. 

The offense, which includes AR, just disintegrated after that fumble.

The game was over in 4 offensive plays.

Jones fumbled to end the drive when they would have gone head at least 20-17. They got the ball back down 24-17 and ran the following 3 plays. Williams handoff was an OK play, I don't remember the 2nd down play, and then Rodgers had no chance on the third down sack as it was just a jail break. When they got it back down 31-17 the game was over.

• 1st & 10 at GB 25

  (10:06 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Williams up the middle to GB 28 for 3 yards (D.Wise; K.Van Noy).

• 2nd & 7 at GB 28

  (9:28 - 4th) A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to E.St. Brown (J.McCourty).

• 3rd & 7 at GB 28

  (9:21 - 4th) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at GB 19 for -9 yards (sack split by T.Flowers and A.Clayborn).

• 4th & 16 at GB 19

  (8:30 - 4th) J.Scott punts 53 yards to NE 28, Center-H.Bradley, fair catch by J.Edelman.

First and goal from the 2 foot line and 3 consecutive passing plays speaks volumes.

MichiganPacker posted:

 

In 2011, the Patriots had gone 7 years without winning a title (which would extend to a 9 year gap), had a 34 year old QB how wasn't very mobile even when he was younger, and it looked like their window had closed. They didn't capitalize on a 16-0 year and had lost to Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Jake Plummer QB'd teams in the playoffs. They had the 3 titles in the early 2000s (and lucked out to get one after winning the "tuck rule" game). but that looked to be it.

The run Belichick has gone on the last 7 years is the best coaching job in NFL history. In 2011, it was clear he was a better coach than MM, but not exponentially so., and if the 2011 Packers win the Super Bowl, MM is in the same conversation as BB at that point.

The difference is that BB adjusted and made another mini-dynasty. MM peaked in 2010-11 and has shown no ability to adjust to allow for a second act.

 

 

Had the Seahawks simply given the ball to Marshawn Lynch, and had the Falcons a semblance of a clue how to play ball control offense up 21-3 at halftime, the Patriots would be sitting on three straight Super Bowl losses.  ( Maybe those two wins make up for the losses to Eli Manning in 2008 and 2012.....)

The last 25 years have been great, and yet I would agree that they felt short of a true dynasty.  It's been a fun 25 years, and yet there is a little bit of a smidgen of disappointment knowing that they were on the cusp of 6 or 7 World Titles during that time and only came up with 2.  1995, 1997, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2014... those years were fun and yet each ended in their own gut wrenching way knowing that another chance at a World Championship was blown. 

slowmo posted:

MichiganPacker posted:

 

In 2011, the Patriots had gone 7 years without winning a title (which would extend to a 9 year gap), had a 34 year old QB how wasn't very mobile even when he was younger, and it looked like their window had closed. They didn't capitalize on a 16-0 year and had lost to Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Jake Plummer QB'd teams in the playoffs. They had the 3 titles in the early 2000s (and lucked out to get one after winning the "tuck rule" game). but that looked to be it.

The run Belichick has gone on the last 7 years is the best coaching job in NFL history. In 2011, it was clear he was a better coach than MM, but not exponentially so., and if the 2011 Packers win the Super Bowl, MM is in the same conversation as BB at that point.

The difference is that BB adjusted and made another mini-dynasty. MM peaked in 2010-11 and has shown no ability to adjust to allow for a second act.

 

 

Had the Seahawks simply given the ball to Marshawn Lynch, and had the Falcons a semblance of a clue how to play ball control offense up 21-3 at halftime, the Patriots would be sitting on three straight Super Bowl losses.  ( Maybe those two wins make up for the losses to Eli Manning in 2008 and 2012.....)

They'd be sitting on 5 Super Bowl losses in the last 11 years (Eagles, Seahawks, Falcons, and two losses to the Giants). We'd be talking about BB in two phases - the dynasty of the early 2000s and the Marv Levy phase during the last decade.

Pikes Peak posted:

I recall three or four years ago that if a poster claimed BB was a better coach than MM that poster got demolished....things have changed.

McVince.

But they won what they've won.  Other than the cheating scandal, no one can really take that away from them.