@Chongo posted:Burks improved with better coaching and a better scheme. Too early for me to call my shot here.
He improved slightly. Still glad he's gone
@Boris posted:Gutey: I don't trust you Mr. Scout
They clearly did their homework on the guy.
They have one pick in the late 4th round. Really?? He wasn't going to last there? That's still about 50 slots higher than consensus. I'm actually ok with the pick. They clearly need LB'ers. Since they went over film, they obviously liked some of the more intangibles he has other than what he put on film.
The draft is all about knowing where the other 31 teams have a player slotted. If no other team would take him in round 4, this was a dumb pick at that slot.
Once you get past the first 50 picks the "consensus" boards are literally meaningless. Every team has entirely different boards based on need, scheme, evaluation, etc.
I'm going to guess the Packers do their due diligence to know what other teams needs, schemes, and evaluations are and the likelihood that some other team may "reach" for the same guy they value. This is why literally every team has "reaches" in their draft.
@BrainDed posted:If accurate, I donât understand the disdain for McDuffie. He isnât an all pro but he is assignment sure and makes the play in front of him.
Not sure there is disdain for McDuffie in GB. The Packers just need more bodies and competition at LB especially since switching to a 4-3. McDuffie is part of that.
@vitaflo posted:Once you get past the first 50 picks the "consensus" boards are literally meaningless. Every team has entirely different boards based on need, scheme, evaluation, etc.
I'm going to guess the Packers do their due diligence to know what other teams needs, schemes, and evaluations are and the likelihood that some other team may "reach" for the same guy they value. This is why literally every team has "reaches" in their draft.
On a similar note, I donât see a lot of value in 6th and 7th rounded compared to UDFAs. Those should always be trade bait to move up into the 5th and 4th. The talent difference between the 60 or so guys drafted in rounds 6 and 7 is not much different than the talent level of the top 30 UDFAs.
Especially when you are already a competitive team, quality over quantity.
@BrainDed posted:On a similar note, I donât see a lot of value in 6th and 7th rounded compared to UDFAs. Those should always be trade bait to move up into the 5th and 4th. The talent difference between the 60 or so guys drafted in rounds 6 and 7 is not much different than the talent level of the top 30 UDFAs.
Especially when you are already a competitive team, quality over quantity.
Except, 6th and 7th rounders are captives for the next 4 years. Free agents, you have to compete with the other teams. Karl Brooks was a 6th rounder last year.
If the coaches talked to him several times pre-draft they probably liked him but had reservations as well. I wonder what they talked about: was the scheme he played best for him? Was he nicked up and no one knew? Are you willing to be a ST demon and work to get better? Can you long-snap? 
@PackLandVA posted:
@Fandame posted:If the coaches talked to him several times pre-draft they probably liked him but had reservations as well. I wonder what they talked about: was the scheme he played best for him? Was he nicked up and no one knew? Are you willing to be a ST demon and work to get better? Can you long-snap?
I would have to imagine he possess an extremely specific trait they highly desire and feel is lacking on the roster as constructed going into the draft.
This draft as a whole seems like it was focused on targeted traits more than best available well rounded developmental prospects.
Seems like Gute is going out of his way to find highly specific fits for what the new defensive scheme is trying to achieve. Looks to my untrained eye like they want violent down hill players and lots of them because selling out for the stop is going to be in line with their style of play. It's a polar opposite style to a Barry defense.
If anything this draft shows they're pot committed to the change. It's going to be interesting to see how quickly the new defensive staff can get everyone up to speed.
I'm not going to be surprised if there's a lot of chaos and miscommunication in the first third of the season. I'll be measured in criticism if doesn't all come together right away.
Expectations are through the roof this year, but it's going to take time to figure out how all these pieces fit together and then getting the players to commit to their roles. It might be more vanilla to start than we all are hoping for. Might take a while to get the training wheels off.
I like Hopper. Maybe a tad early with this pick, but his tape shows a fast guy when at the LOS, and a disruptor in the backfield. We needed LBs, and as was said, this wasn't a great draft for LB prospects. I'll bet Hopper was the best available LB, on Gute's board, when he made the pick.
LB heavy(er) scheme requires more LB. I mean, if you said the Packers could add Dre Greenlaw to this scheme would Packer fans take him in the 3rd round? Maybe he will be Greenlaw...maybe he will be Jake Ryan. But his RAS says he's athletic enough to be an elite LB.
Attachments
Images (1)
Interesting comparison and is a fine of example of you can either play football at this level or you can't. Hopefully Hopper pans out.
@titmfatied posted:I would have to imagine he possess an extremely specific trait they highly desire and feel is lacking on the roster as constructed going into the draft.
This draft as a whole seems like it was focused on targeted traits more than best available well rounded developmental prospects.
Seems like Gute is going out of his way to find highly specific fits for what the new defensive scheme is trying to achieve. Looks to my untrained eye like they want violent down hill players and lots of them because selling out for the stop is going to be in line with their style of play. It's a polar opposite style to a Barry defense.
If anything this draft shows they're pot committed to the change. It's going to be interesting to see how quickly the new defensive staff can get everyone up to speed.
I'm not going to be surprised if there's a lot of chaos and miscommunication in the first third of the season. I'll be measured in criticism if doesn't all come together right away.
Expectations are through the roof this year, but it's going to take time to figure out how all these pieces fit together and then getting the players to commit to their roles. It might be more vanilla to start than we all are hoping for. Might take a while to get the training wheels off.
I'll take the initial chaos if it means we never have to lose a game again by going into a soft zone and playing 10 yards deep on 3rd and 5 when you need a stop to give the offense a chance to get the ball back with a chance to win a game.
@MichiganPacker2 posted:I'll take the initial chaos if it means we never have to lose a game again by going into a soft zone and playing 10 yards deep on 3rd and 5 when you need a stop to give the offense a chance to get the ball back with a chance to win a game.
Yeah, like that last Niner's drive.
STILL IRKS ME!
@mrtundra posted:. I'll bet Hopper was the best available LB, on Gute's board, when he made the pick.
I'm sure he was....now my question is...was he the best PLAYER (regardless of position) overall.
This pick is the one I dislike the most. Classic Gutey 3rd round bust. Prove me wrong!
@YATittle posted:Yeah, like that last Niner's drive.
STILL IRKS ME!
Move on bro....it's a new season and they open it in Brazil. ð
@Boris posted:I'm sure he was....now my question is...was he the best PLAYER (regardless of position) overall.
Gute himself yesterday said that's not really how they value players. You basically have groups of guys, especially later, that are all around the same grade. IE, you could pick any one of them and the value received would be the same. Then from that group you decide if any of them fit a need for your team. Hopper in this case was part of the group of players that were highest on their board at the time and fit the biggest need so he got picked.
It's also why they moved up in the 4th to get Williams. Gute said the group of players they had rated highest at that time was starting to get thin and they didn't want to lose out on one. So they made the trade with the expectation that one of them would be avail and it turned out to be Williams.
This is also why he said they didn't grab a CB until the end. At their picks there just weren't any CB's in their group of players with the highest value to pick from so they didn't pick one.
It was also interesting hearing him talk about Musgrave and Kraft last year. They had both of them at the same grade and had to decide which TE from that group they wanted, and they picked Musgrave. When Kraft fell to them in the 3rd they were shocked and instantly took him. In their minds they got two high 2nd round graded TE's last year.
Yup I read the Musgrave/Kraft thing. That's fantastic and Gutey said....." Sometimes that's just the way the draft falls."
I like the Evan Williams pick.... So that makes up for this pick, for me anyway.
@Boris posted:Yup I read the Musgrave/Kraft thing. That's fantastic and Gutey said....." Sometimes that's just the way the draft falls."
I like the Evan Williams pick.... So that makes up for this pick, for me anyway.
I'm going to guess they had Williams and Hopper in the same value group. And that was the group that was "starting to get thin" as Gute said towards the top of the 4th that necessitated them moving up to get Williams. They just took Hopper first out of that group because they had a bigger need at LB given the 4-3 switch.
If they interviewed him, and went over film together, he clearly showed impressive football IQ and you can't teach that easily. They liked What they heard. He interviewed and he got the job. Trust the process.
Just do better than Sternburger or DeGuara
It's a pretty low bar. Let's see if you can jump over it.
@vitaflo posted:This is also why he said they didn't grab a CB until the end. At their picks there just weren't any CB's in their group of players with the highest value to pick from so they didn't pick one.
This is where Gutekunst has really gotten dicey, or as Goalline calls it, "too cute". In years where they needed a WR and were considered very strong WR classes, he's come away with none. Then he takes three in a year with a big drop off at the position after the first few, including an expensive trade up that likely also cost them a desperately needed safety that happened to be a starter for the Super Bowl Champions in a very physical defense.
This year was an abnormally strong year for man corners, and he basically got none of the well-regarded ones.
I get (and like) Bullard, but Renardo Green went shortly after to the 49ers, and Andru Phillips went shortly after that to the Giants. Could he have waited on a safety and taken the more highly-valued position? Possibly, but need and value met pretty hard with Bullard.
Ty'Ron Hopper was the point of contention. The widely-held knock on Hopper is he's a point-and-click linebacker from the Torrance Marshall school of instincts and comprehension. With Walker and Cooper as the preferred starters, he's also competing as a nominal starter with a more-experienced player in the system in a lesser-used sub-package at a position of lesser value. He also doesn't offer a size advantage.
Jarrian Jones, who they also had in for a pre-draft visit, went just a few picks later, as did Khyree Jackson, as did safeties Kam Kinchens and Dadrian Taylor-Demerson, had they gone for a corner at the end of Round 2 (Elijah Jones went a pick earlier, so missed him regardless).
Shortly after they moved up to get Evan Williams, who isn't the same class of athlete as any of those guys except Kinchens, and Kinchens has better tape.
Meanwhile, just after their scheduled pick was Jaden Hicks and Sione Vaki at safety, and Nehemiah Pritchett, Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart at CB.
There were other LBs in the mix through that stretch, as well, such as Tyrice Knight, Jordan Magee and Edefuon Ulofoshio.
And it's not as if the other guys went to scrub teams with bad drafts.
It's fair to question Gutekunst's actions in this part of the draft.
37 had a huge impact on this draft.
Huge.
Definitely fair to question where he selected the players.
Renardo Green was a guy I would've really liked even though I'm not upset with the Bullard pick.
We have the luxury Of 20/20 hindsight.
I'm just hoping this draft class plays as well as the last 2 draft classes have. We will all be happy fans if that occurs.
Some people just pretend to be smarter than a GM who spent hours and hours with scouts he trusts, watched hours of tape and actually did personal visits with many draft prospects. And yet they question who he picked and when. When all they did was watch a few games and read some other draftnicks write ups.
Some of us have seen the horrendous 3rd round picks.
So some of us are wary when we see a player picked that would probably have been there in round 4 or 5.
More than happy to be Rong!
@ammo posted:Some people just pretend to be smarter than a GM who spent hours and hours with scouts he trusts, watched hours of tape and actually did personal visits with many draft prospects. And yet they question who he picked and when. When all they did was watch a few games and read some other draftnicks write ups.
I think it is fair game to question the GM, but questionable behavior to act like you just know better. You have less information and less training. What the hell makes you better?
Hard to believe a 7th rounder could have so much influence over such a storied franchise.
Donald Driver...Mark Tauscher...Rasheed Walker. ð
Adam Timmerman
They're already pissed
Another nail
@Goalline posted:I think it is fair game to question the GM, but questionable behavior to act like you just know better. You have less information and less training. What the hell makes you better?
It isn't a "better" or "worse" dichotomy. We've seen a myriad of Gutekunst's mistakes and good calls.
What's very interesting is looking at how closely teams have "followed" the consensus board when they pick. This is data prior to the 2024 draft.
Let's look at Jordan Morgan. It's easy to see why Gutekunst would like him over Graham Barton, for example, while also thinking Barton is a better candidate as a rookie starter but with less tackle upside even though he's a bit higher on consensus boards. The difference isn't enough of an outlier to skew chart position as Morgan was around 35 and Barton around 25.
Hopper, meanwhile was around 175.
Attachments
Images (1)
So is the consensus board the actual boards of all 32 teams combined or is it just boards from people like Kiper, and other writers?
@ammo posted:So is the consensus board the actual boards of all 32 teams combined or is it just boards from people like Kiper, and other writers?
