With a 1:00 pm start today, not a great way to start a playoff series. Bucks historically have been awful in early afternoon games.
The Heat are a real threat. They play smarter and have the tactical advantage on the sideline. If the Bucks struggle to shoot the ball like last year, it’ll be the end of the Budenholzer era. Miami gave up the 4th most made threes (Bucks gave up the most) on the second-most attempts (Bucks gave up the third most). The difference is the 36.5% for Miami (upper third of the league) and the 38.4% (Bucks have the second worst 3 point defense). Both teams defend the 2 at a very high level. And Nunn has torched the Bucks as well, even recently going for +30. The Miami backcourt is strong and the Bucks, aside from Holiday and Middleton, will need to elevate their game.
As it was last year, this series may be defined by how well the Bucks can defend “ the Dragon” Goran Dragic. The Jimmy Butler/Middleton matchup has always been a relative wash, going all the way back to his days with the Bulls. Herro/Robinson can fill it up if you let them- but can be defended. Holiday could be a difference maker here this time around.
Adebayo might take Lopez completely off the floor- he cannot defend him one on one. He’s quicker to rebounds (Miami killed the Bucks on the O-glass last year), and since Adebayo is one guy that can go one on one with Giannis and stay with him athletically- though if you recall in the game Giannis blew his ankle last year, he had 18 points in the second quarter of that game going hth with Adebayo- taking Lopez off the floor does help Miami. Can Portis shake off the recent shooting dip and be a valuable bench scorer? Can Connaughton defend the perimeter and help on the boards like he has this year when the Bucks have been at their best? Will Forbes counter the Robinson/Herro/Nunn with threes of his own? What role will Tucker play in this series? Defending Butler?
All in all, how the Bucks defend Dragic and the Miami backcourt plus how well the Bucks score down the stretch of games will probably tell the tale. The Bucks are a different team this year, but we saw this year through the ups and downs that they aren’t that different. Holiday and the Bucks improved 3 point shooting should force Miami to defend all 5 guys, and how much Giannis is able to elevate his game could help the Bucks overcome the team that bitterly ended their quest for a Championship a year ago.
