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Bucks played like a confident team ... like they knew it. And for the defense to keep that lead, even add to it... that’s a GREAT sign.

That shot by Middleton launched this game. Miami will come for blood, and now they can put their foot on their throats.

Other than Middleton, the other 4 Bucks starters are 5 for 36 from the three point line in the series. If I'd have told you that would be the stat after two games, you would have figured it would have been two Miami blowout wins.

The Holiday impact, and to a lesser extent Tucker, has been significant.   They compete like crazy and can defend multiple positions.  They also don’t seem to let the moment get too big for them.  Put it another way, I’m sure the Heat and Dragic, Butler, and Robinson in particular hate seeing those guys.

Miami was most definitely trying to increase chances for guys to get hurt.

Ariza tackles Giannis, several Heat players getting up under shooters... one time (I forget which Heat player) pushed a screener (think it was Tucker) into a shooter which had the screener land up underneath the shooter and could have rolled an ankle or a knee. Dragic does a lot of little chinsy things that are designed to get you pushed off or off the floor.

Miami without Crowder and Olynyk just cannot defend the paint against this Bucks team. Giannis is killing them, Lopez and Portis have had their way inside as well. The Bucks have a 36-21 advantage so far in offensive rebounds, and 125-87 rebounding advantage overall. That’s getting destroyed on the glass.

It was a huge miscalculation by Pat Riley by letting Crowder and Olynyk go.  Those guys were very valuable in what they could do in matching up with a team like Milwaukee.  

Lopez should be a non factor against the Heat, but with he and Giannis on the floor the Heat cannot defend both guys.  Portis has been a handful for the Heat as well.  And Lopez and Giannis don’t have to defend the perimeter like they would if JC and KO were still with Miami.

People are carrying on about Butler and how ineffective he’s been, but in fairness to him he’s not getting much help from others other than Robinson and Dragic.  Not the case last year.

Last edited by Tschmack
@Tschmack posted:

It was a huge miscalculation by Pat Riley by letting Crowder and Olynyk go.  Those guys were very valuable in what they could do in matching up with a team like Milwaukee.  

Lopez should be a non factor against the Heat, but with he and Giannis on the floor the Heat cannot defend both guys.  Portis has been a handful for the Heat as well.  And Lopez and Giannis don’t have to defend the perimeter like they would if JC and KO were still with Miami.

People are carrying on about Butler and how ineffective he’s been, but in fairness to him he’s not getting much help from others other than Robinson and Dragic.  Not the case last year.

I think Giannis waiting until just before the start of the season to sign the SuperMax really caused some problems for other teams. The Raptors basically just conceded the season with most of their moves. The Heat's moves didn't make any sense at all either. They traded away Olynk and Bradley to take a flier on Oladipo who ended up getting hurt again. The Mavs seemed to hold back on moves as well.

Trading Oladipo was the one move the Rockets made that looks great in retrospect. I think they offered him 4 years and 80 million and he turned it down. People thought they got fleeced by Miami, but Olynk, Bradley, and a 1st round pick is a lot better than a guy who is likely never to be near all-star level again. Bradley has one more year and 6 million on his contract and should get them something if they decide to move him.

Jae Crowder didn’t exactly break the bank with Phoenix.  Basically a 3yr deal for 29MM total.  That’s a good value for a guy that shoots nearly 40% from 3 and plays scrappy defense.   He’s started half the games he played in his career.

Olynyk is more offense than defense, but the guy averaged 19/8 for a bad Houston team and shot 39% from 3 with the Rockets.  He was in the final year of his deal making 12MM this season.

I get the Heat were trying to create cap space but without those two guys the Heat are a very ordinary frontcourt team. Against a team like Milwaukee that has skilled bigs in Giannis and Lopez and even Portis they have no shot.  Plus it means Bam and Butler have to work their asses off.  Surely I expect the Heat to adjust, but it’s not like Crowder or Olynyk are walking through the door to help.

The other thing the Heat did was buy into Herro being a future superstar. They allegedly refused to include him in a lot of proposed deals.

I don't know what to think of Herro at this point. Is he the next Devin Booker or more like a Bryn Forbes?

https://hoopshabit.com/2021/04...%2C%20and%20Robinson.

Herro has been terrible this series. It doesn't mean he won't go off at some point, but Spoelstra has buried him behind Kendrick Nunn in terms of minutes, mainly because he seems to be a defensive liability. They also giving Herro more minutes at point guard at the beginning of the year and he bombed.

https://www.basketballnews.com...handler-devin-booker

The 66 minutes with Herro on the court without a point guard have been awful from a statistical standpoint. The Heat have a 94.2 offensive rating in that frame, which would easily be the worst mark in the NBA if extrapolated over an entire season. That number jumps to 107.2 when Herro and Dragic are on the floor together, revealing the obvious: Herro is much more comfortable operating against bent defenses as a secondary handler.

The Herro regression has been stunning.  He was everyone’s darling last year, but has really taken a step back this year.

Miami really screwed the pooch by not dealing him when his value was highest not unlike Keston Hiura.

Interesting points made in this from the BTBP guys:

https://behindthebuckpass.com/...ntetokounmpo-game-2/

Giannis is 1-17 jump shooting. Yikes... but this I think is different in 2021: if they think they can just wall off Giannis, the 3s are going to be there. But if they start hounding the perimeter and chasing guys off the 3 point line, the wall gets killed if the Bucks make around their season average from deep.

We talked about that last year- that despite the Bucks going 5 out and “letting it fly”, they don’t exactly make a great %. Both games so far have been anomalies- bad and good. If they end up somewhere in the middle I still don’t think that changes a thing. Holiday has shifted everything- because even if they put up the wall, and then chase down the 3 point shooters... Holiday creates and torches them too (see game 1). And with Middleton gaining more confidence and showing increasing athleticism (that baseline drive/dunk game 2 was eye-popping), there’s simply too many ways to beat you.

Last edited by Music City

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