2019 FA Season - A Wild Summer

It’s going to be interesting that’s for sure. 

I think they will make every reasonable effort to bring back Lopez and Middleton.  Brogdon is a wild card as a RFA some team could throw crazy money at him and I don’t think you can pay both Middleton and Brogdon 20MM each.  Plus they have some other guard options with DD and Sterling Brown. 

George Hill did well but I can’t see them paying him 18MM next season.  Mirotic would be OK but not at 10MM+ per year.  I would expect they will try to deal Tony Snell to free up some $$ but they could retain him as a backup depending on who they bring back. 

I like Terrance Ross and Bogdanovic and also like JJ Redick.  If Middleton goes you may take a crack at Tobias Harris. 

No thanks on Mirotic. He is a total defensive liability. 

The biggest variable in all this is keeping Giannis happy. If they run everybody back (meaning the starting 5, not Mirotic and George Hill), they are very likely to win at least 55 games and have a high likelihood of at least making the second round of the playoffs. This makes it more likely that Giannis would resign than if they let a bunch of these guys go, signed replacements for them, and then got bounced in the first round of the playoffs after a regression. 

Of course, they could resign the starting 5 and regress. Giannis could then say he won't sign the supermax and then you are stuck in Cavs-land with a bunch of overpaid solid players. But a huge regression is unlikely. 

To run these guys back is going to take probably 32 million for Middleton, 12 million for Brogdon, and 10 million for Lopez. If they don't pay them at least this, other teams will be lined up to pay this.

Someone is going to max Middleton (32 million). There are way too many teams with money that will do it if they can't get their preferred guys. Durant and Kawhi can't sign everywhere, and A. Davis can only get traded to one team. You are likely to have teams like the Knicks, Mavs, Lakers, and Nets with money to spend and they'll spend it. 

Brogdon is eligible for 4 years and 47 million from the Bucks. It's probably going to take that to sign him. 10 million may be too little for Lopez. 

If they don't sign these guys, it's hard to see them attracting another player of Middleton's caliber. As much as I'd like to see them upgrade guys around Giannis, it's not likely to happen and finding someone like Lopez at that price is almost a once-in-a-generation type thing. 

I'm not sold on Sterling Brown as a rotation player on a playoff team, so the only chance for significant improvement from within this roster is likely Donte DiVencenzo. His shooting under pressure (at least at the NCAA level) is exactly what they needed against Toronto. DJ Wilson is a nice 4th or 5th guy off the bench, but he's not going to get you over the hump. 

- Torn on Middleton, but agree that he’s not worth max. Wasted $ in my opinion.

-Yes on Lopez unless $ is outrageous. I want a guy like him who showed his worth in the ECF. Big balls.

-I really like Brogdon and would like to see him back. I think he gets better. I understand the other side though and would live with letting him go, but I think he can be a valuable asset to this team moving forward. Not a #2 to Giannis, but a strong #3.

-I’d like to see Hill back if he’d stay for team friendly price and based on what I saw from Mirotic, I could care less. Was expecting a lot more from him and it never panned out. Think he could be a really valuable role player on this team though, but have nothing to back it up.

-In regards to how  this all affects Giannis.....Ownership has done more than I could ever possibly imagine to first keeping the Bucks in Milwaukee and then building a Championship caliber team. Never thought I’d say that. Therefore I see them doing absolutely everything in their power to keep him in Milwaukee. At the end of the day if he leaves, that’s on him and not the Bucks. Blame the small market, Lake Michigan and the shitty weather, or the ownership at local eateries.

***Note*** I was expecting to see breasts on this thread based on its title. 

I do not like this “keep Giannis happy” thing. This is the same shit Lebron pulled in Cleveland that netted them Larry Hughes, Ben Wallace, Ilgaskus, and Gooden the first time around, and Thompson, Smith, and a 30 yr old Kevin Love with 4 years and $130M left on his deal after this season. 

I would rather they avoid these mistakes. Spend money on stars. 

Music City posted:

I do not like this “keep Giannis happy” thing. This is the same shit Lebron pulled in Cleveland that netted them Larry Hughes, Ben Wallace, Ilgaskus, and Gooden the first time around, and Thompson, Smith, and a 30 yr old Kevin Love with 4 years and $130M left on his deal after this season. 

I would rather they avoid these mistakes. Spend money on stars. 

I agree completely, but the reality is that this is how the game is usually played. Middleton is not a superstar, but he's not Larry Hughes or JR Smith. Another key thing is he's a guy that can guard multiple positions on defense and is an above average defender. 

If you overpay, you overpay for guys that are willing to play defense like Middleton and not guys like Jabari Parker and Mirotic. 

But is his defense truly at the level you pay in that manner? I don’t believe that. 

The Bucks would be best served letting Middleton walk for anything more than $20-22M/year. He needs to take a Klay Thompson discount (pre-Durant) until he actually plays like Klay Thompson. 

I’m not sure I would compare the LeBron situation in Cleveland to that in Milwaukee.    Middleton is better than any of those other pieces James had in Cleveland.  Now, I think it’s completely up to debate of Middleton is worth a max type deal but I think he can get 25-30MM.    Many teams have cap space to get it done. 

Music City posted:

But is his defense truly at the level you pay in that manner? I don’t believe that. 

The Bucks would be best served letting Middleton walk for anything more than $20-22M/year. He needs to take a Klay Thompson discount (pre-Durant) until he actually plays like Klay Thompson. 

I'd much rather have Klay Thompson also, but it's highly unlikely anyone like that is coming to Milwaukee. It's no guarantee Middleton is going to stay either. The one advantage the Bucks have is they can offer more guaranteed money. The Bucks can offer 5 years and 190 million while the most anyone else can go is 4 years and 140 million. On the face of it, both are way too much. The problem is that is almost a certainty that someone is going to give him 4 years and 140 million. The Lakers, Knicks, Nets, Pacers, and Mavs have all been rumored. 

If they let him go, they probably end up signing someone like Danny Green or Trevor Ariza as a shorter term option. It would make more sense for their long-term cap situation, especially when there is no guarantee Giannis will be here long-term. The problem is that even if it's a better cap situation and gives you more future flexibility, it makes you worse next year. Being a #3 or #4 seed and getting bounced in the second round is a bad scenario for retaining Giannis once the illegal behind-the-scenes tampering really ramps up next summer. 

That’s why targeting Terrence Ross and/or Bojan Bogdanovic makes more sense than over-investing in guys like Middleton and Brogdon (if his stock truly merits the $20M offer sheet some are talking about). Shorter money on comparable players is the right move. And they may catch lightning in a bottle as Giannis expands his game. 

I hope the Bucks sign Lopez and Brogdon.  Lopez was as clutch as anyone.  Bucks would have lost Game 1 without him and he was by far the main offense at the end of Game 6.

I am soft on Mirotic, thanks to his poor defense.  Don't know how I feel on Middleton.  Hate that Bledsoe is signed for 4 years.  He's too much of a liability on the half court offense.

Hill would sure be nice.

I think the Bucks need to act as though we will have Giannis long-term.  Without him, we ain't going anywhere anyway.

Things may have just gotten very interesting in Houston.  Apparently,  Mike Dantoni broke off extension talks with the Rockets.  Couple that with Daryl Morey making comments about being open to trade “anyone” and it’s very possible they bust up that team with guys like Clint Capela and certainly Chris Paul being available via trade.  Eric Gordon is also in the last year of his current deal.  

Why this all matters is it takes some of the attention off the Bucks players.  Especially guys like Malcolm Brogdon.  

Philly is the other major domino to fall.  If Butler or Harris go I would expect them to make a push for a guy Middleton.  Indiana is a team no one is talking about but they have a lot of cap space and Collison is also a free agent.  Might they be inclined to go after Middleton and Brogdon?  They could afford both. 

We can match any offer Brogdon gets. He's staying 

Yeah, they can- but if some team gets stupid and offers $20M, you cannot give him that. 

I would be perfectly OK with Lopez, Brogdon, and Hill returning. Mirotic and Middleton walking would be perfectly fine. Second round guys are great to pay their first contract- you’re getting them developing and it makes financial sense. Assuming Brogdon’s raise is about what they gave Middleton, it’s a good value. But when a second round guy comes looking for max dollars, and he isn’t All NBA? Let him be someone else’s limited investment. 

Sterling Brown just completed his second season. He’s the next Brogdon. Divincenzo is in the pipeline. An off season getting his body ready for 100 games is all he needs. 

MC:

But when a second round guy comes looking for max dollars, and he isn’t All NBA? Let him be someone else’s limited investment. 

Sterling Brown just completed his second season. He’s the next Brogdon. Divincenzo is in the pipeline. An off season getting his body ready for 100 games is all he needs. 

I am not saying Brogdon ought to get max dollars, but your description of him sure displayed severe selective bias.  Yeah, he was a second round draft pick.  He was also rookie of the year and a 50-40-90 guy last year.  He does not make a lot of mistakes, plays within himself, can penetrate, and is a viable 3 point offense with the Buck's half court scheme.

Onto Sterling Brown and Divincenzo.  I see them as unproven commodities to some extent.  Well, D to a huge extent.  He barely played.  if I am GM, I would not manage my roster by making that kind of assumption about them.  That's crazy.

I’ve said this before but Brogdon might be the second most important player on the team.   He may not be great at anything,  but he’s versatile,  smart, plays solid defense, shoots well and can also take it to the rack.  He’s also a very good free throw shooter and isn’t afraid to take and make big shots. 

I also think his presence (alongside Bledsoe) makes Bledsoe play his best.  And we need Bledsoe to play at his best as they are committed financially to him. 

Middleton is a good player and probably is a better fit on this team compared to others but can you really end up paying him 30MM per year?   Put it another way, I would rather they pay Brogdon 20MM per year than pay Middleton 30MM per year. 

Me 10MM per year. 

phaedrus posted:

I am not saying Brogdon ought to get max dollars, but your description of him sure displayed severe selective bias.  Yeah, he was a second round draft pick.  He was also rookie of the year and a 50-40-90 guy last year.  He does not make a lot of mistakes, plays within himself, can penetrate, and is a viable 3 point offense with the Buck's half court scheme.
 

They did a study a few years back about the NBA draft lottery, and how many players from the lottery or first round made all-NBA teams, and analyzed their relative success. The overwhelming majority of all-stars, all-NBAs were first round picks, and that translated to playoff success. 

Malcolm Brogdon is a great comp for Manu Ginobli. Both started in the NBA late 24 and 25 respectively). Both Second rounders who established value very early. And if you look at their 3rd seasons, it really jumps out at you. 04-05 season, Ginobli is the second highest paid Spur, but is making less than half what Duncan was making ($14M to $6M comparatively), and he’s their 3rd leading scorer behind Duncan and Parker (who is a first rounder on his rookie deal still). 

Brogdon’s numbers this season almost identical, not quite as much overall production, about 1 minute/game less. Per 36 numbers favor Ginobli overall, but not by much. 

Duncan was their highest paid player by more than double- but he was only the 9th highest paid player. Shaq was #1, at $27M, almost double Duncan. Next season, Giannis is the 23rd highest paid (and likely more like 25-30 after the new FA deals are signed), well behind the leader Steph Curry who will make about $40M, which is not quite double Giannis’ number. They won it all that season. 

My point: the Spurs identified their talent but they never overpaid anyone. That 04-05 season was Ginobli’s first year of his new deal, and that deal went up about $1-2M each season until the ‘12-13 season (obviously an extension in there as well). The whole time, he always made half of what Duncan was making. By that time, Ginobli made just shy of about $100M as the third best player of the best team of this Century. He won 4 titles, made almost $130M, was named to 2 All Star teams, and did it all coming off the bench. Ironically, he started 2 seasons, and those were the seasons he was an All Star (04-05, ‘11-12). 

Ideally, the Bucks get another SG  (like Beal), and Brogdon comes off the bench. That’s what I would try to convince him of, while the team continues to build around Giannis. 

I really want them to keep Brogdon.  He can play PG and SG.  He's a great defender, all around shooter and can finish at the hoop.  He has a high basketball IQ and I think he will only get better.  I was a little disappointed in his performance in the ECF but don't feel like he was 100% back (rusty from time off).

Some rumors out there about Chris Paul and possibly swinging a deal to join the Bucks.  

Let me first say I am not a Chris Paul fan.  But it’s no secret that the Bucks are looking to shed Tony Snell’s contract and honestly the Eric Bledsoe deal is looking worse by the minute.  To make salaries match you could throw in Ersan as well.  Bledsoe, Snell and Ersan for CPIII.  That could work on paper. 

Tschmack posted:

Some rumors out there about Chris Paul and possibly swinging a deal to join the Bucks.  

Let me first say I am not a Chris Paul fan.  But it’s no secret that the Bucks are looking to shed Tony Snell’s contract and honestly the Eric Bledsoe deal is looking worse by the minute.  To make salaries match you could throw in Ersan as well.  Bledsoe, Snell and Ersan for CPIII.  That could work on paper. 

I tried this on the ESPN trade machine, but the site won't allow a Bledsoe trade right now. I'm not sure when he is eligible to be traded - maybe after the new league year resets. 

The problem I have with this scenario is the Giannis contract timing. There is no question that having Chris Paul makes you a better team next year (at least a much tougher out in the playoffs which is what really matters at this point). But if you trade for Chris Paul and then Giannis doesn't sign the extension, you are left with Chris Paul, Middleton, and Brogon (assuming they resign with the Bucks this summer) making a combined 90 million dollars (Paul will be 40-45 million, Middleton about 30-35 million, and Brogdon about 15 million) for the next 3 years. That's probably fine if Giannis stays, but without Giannis you'd be completely screwed with that much money tied up in 30-35 year old perimeter players. In 2021, Paul will be 37, Middleton 30, and Brogdon 29. 

I guess you could try a sign and trade with Middleton plus Snell for Chris Paul. 

Giannis wants to win with the Bucks. IMO, Middleton played so-so in the playoffs.He showed up in sometimes and threw up bricks in others. Brogdon looked good and considering he may have had a little rust on him from his time off with his injury, he looked good when he played. Let's see him when the rust isn't there and he is 100%. I think Chris Paul III would be the end of Bledsoe with the Bucks. CPIII's leadership would help this team but can we afford him? What are we paying Bledsoe?  Can we afford him?  The only time I get to see the Bucks on TV around here is if they are nationally broadcast or if they are in the playoffs. A sad state of affairs for Wisconsinites in western Wisconsin.

Bucks can't trade Bledsoe until after September according to salary stuff I've read. will see if I can find a reference article.

mrtundra posted:

Giannis wants to win with the Bucks. IMO, Middleton played so-so in the playoffs.He showed up in sometimes and threw up bricks in others. Brogdon looked good and considering he may have had a little rust on him from his time off with his injury, he looked good when he played. Let's see him when the rust isn't there and he is 100%. I think Chris Paul III would be the end of Bledsoe with the Bucks. CPIII's leadership would help this team but can we afford him? What are we paying Bledsoe?  Can we afford him?  The only time I get to see the Bucks on TV around here is if they are nationally broadcast or if they are in the playoffs. A sad state of affairs for Wisconsinites in western Wisconsin.

The Bucks are going to be on national TV a lot for as long as Giannis is there. If he goes, they will go back to being an afterthought. 

Just use Reddit - r/nbastreams. 

Subs for all the other major sports, too. 

Well, that 5 year Bledsoe contract looks like dog shit if that’s how he will play in May and June.  I mean, he was a D league player at times in the postseason. 

Put it another way- I would rather have a 34 year old Chris Paul and his 35MM deal the next 3 seasons than Bledsoe and Snell for about the same money.  Paul is a better distributor and better 3 point shooter.  Bledsoe is probably better defensively but if they bring back Brogdon that’s a moot point. 

Here’s the thing - Bledsoe single handedly cost them the Boston playoff series in 2018.  He was a primary reason in 2019 why they didn’t advance to the Finals.   That’s not a good thing people.  He’s anti clutch in the playoffs.  How many chances should he get? 

If I’m Giannis I’m like **** that guy 

Good ****ing grief... Bledsoe is worthless now? He can still get better. Shit, he’s gotten better the last 2 seasons now that he’s finally getting coached. They’re buying low with him on that deal... he’s all defensive 1st team FFS! 

Hey Music! Add to that, he literally signed for about half of his market value at the time of his extension. Amazing. Buying low is right.

Thinking Bledsoe is solely responsible for losses... I mean, wow. Everybody on our team missed shots that could have won games we lost. Giannis, Midds, Brogs, Lopez, Ersan, Niko, Planet Pat, Bledsoe, Hill. Everybody.

I don't mean to denigrate Bledsoe too much, but I saw a video on the Raptor's defense.  The entire scheme was predicated on 1)the wall and 2)we won't even try to stop Bledsoe from shooting 3's.

Everyone else?  No.  Bledsoe?  Absolutely.

All that matters is how they play in April and May and June.  Bledsoe has struggled in the playoffs and it’s not just a one time deal with him. 

As for the “he signed for a lot less” commentary I wouldn’t be so sure of that.  They are on the hook for 4 more seasons with no team option.  While he’s making about 15MM the two years in the last two years of his deal he’s pushing almost 20MM.  That’s not a bargain if you ask me. 

I view Bledsoe as the 4th or 5th best option on the team.  Middleton and Brogdon are possibly Lopez are more important.  

Tschmack posted:

 Well, that 5 year Bledsoe contract looks like dog shit

As for the “he signed for a lot less” commentary I wouldn’t be so sure of that.  They are on the hook for 4 more seasons with no team option. .....

Wrong. Bledsoe signed a 4 year $70M contract. Year 4 only has a $3.9M partial guaranty. Basically a 3/$50M deal. Sounds like a pretty team friendly deal to me... with option... movable. BTW, contract says he can't be traded until after Sept 4. As far as PG contract rankings, after Kyrie and Kemba sign, Bleds contract will be in the #15 range .  

Some of the bashing is hindsight. Bledsoe played incredibly well since Bud was named Bucks coach - probably deserved the ALL Star team more than KM with his 1st team defense and his regular season offense. Most everyone was happy with him being re-signed. Did he stink in the playoffs, yeah, but I dont believe that's all on him. Bledsoe was shooting over 70% in the restricted area and would regularly blow by defenders because of the Bucks spacing. Lopez, Mirotic, Middleton, etc...were all camped out for the 3 point shot with Giannis also drawing attention. This cleared the lane and was perfect for Bledsoe's penetration game. Then the playoffs come and the 3 point shooting dries up, leading to the Raptors packing the lane. Bledsoe's suddenly supposed to become a 3 point shooter? I think the lack of adjustment by his coach and his teammates clanking let him down as much as him being asked to do something that's not "currently" part of his game. 

Bledsoe has probably his best offensive season in terms of efficiency. Career high in FG% and eFG%, and his lowest turnover % since the start of his career. In a new offensive system not geared towards his perceived strengths. His shot selection improvement probably was the biggest contributor to his improved offense this season. Oh and he was All D 1st Team. But he’s trash. 

Bledsoe is the 4th offensive option on this team. He penetrates, makes a few jumpers, sets up teammates, and plays tough, physical defense. Both he and Middleton shot below 42% from the field in the playoffs- yet we’re talking about a max deal for Middleton? Folks saying they have to do it? On offense, Middleton is your #2 option... Bledsoe is your #4 option. 

I find it pretty damned funny folks are trashing Bledsoe- going as far as saying he cost the Bucks a Finals appearance-  when your #1 and #2 disappeared down the stretch in each game they lost to Toronto. You best players have to be your best players even when the other team knows you’re going to get the ball. Toronto won the series because in the 4th quarter Vanvleet didn’t miss (oh how the shots have dried up against the Warriors, huh?) and Leonard was money. Their best player played like it and one guy got hot. 

In 2019/20, Giannis must be able to pull up in front of the wall and score. THen when you have to start extending out to stop the midrange jumper, you’re ****ed- there’s cutters, holes to exploit with the euro, and 3 point shooters everywhere else. It is all that is left for him to be the #1 player in the NBA. Then your #4 scoring option gets to do what he does best- play defense. 

Honestly Bledsoe’s greatest contribution is his defense.  That’s what he did very well and consistently this season.   He’s also been durable most of his career. 

On the flip side he shot 32% from 3 this year.  In the playoffs it was much worse.  He also only got to the line about 3 times per game.  

I get that Bud wants these guys taking 3 pointers but Bledsoe should not be getting 5-6 attempts per game.  

The guy that was supposed to “stretch the floor” and give Giannis the openings shot 29% from three in the playoffs. His man was one of the members of the Great Wall of the north (call him a knight of the night’s watch). What does the Toronto series look like if Brook Lopez would have gotten hot, like game 1? 

This year was all about the 3 point shot or Giannis powering to the hoop. When the 3's weren't falling, it made it extremely easy for Toronto to adjust their defense. That's on Bud. He made it painfully obvious that he was de-emphasizing the mid-range shot as part of some new age "let it fly" strategy. Fun and largely successful, but you need to have an alternative when things aren't working.

Giannis' recent comments about what he learned in the ECF contained subtle jabs to the Bucks strategy..... how Kawhi went to his bread and butter like all of the great ones do - the mid range jumper. Giannis is gonna have one next year - bank on it. 

Giannis shot 33% from 3 in the playoffs this year.   How about our other guys?  Not so much. 

Pardon my NBA ignorance as I stopped watching after the 2000 season.

My question is, why can’t the Bucks go after another big name star?  Someone like a Durant, or Klay Thompson. 

Is it the money?  And if so, is it because of cap space, or owners with tight pockets? (i.e. Bud Selig)  How do these “super teams” do it?  How can Golden State afford all of those players?  How did Miami pay LeBron, Wade, and Bosh.

Or is it these big name players don’t want to play in small market Milwaukee?  Nothing to do and it’s cold?  One would think a player would want to team up with Giannis to win a championship.