Looking Ahead to the Offseason UPDATED with Mock Draft

Pat Lee was a whole lotta 'suck', too.

quote:

Originally posted by Boris:

quote:

If not for some high draft picks that crapped out in ugly fashion

Harrell & Brohm are who I was thinking.

Who were you thinking? Anyone different?

The usual suspects. Justin, Hodge, Brohm, Lee. Jackson was a contributor in 2010. But he never lived up to the value of where he was taken.

Then again the numbers would be even more in TT's favor if Nick was still playing.

The experts at Bleacher Report sez:

quote:

26. Miami Dolphins (via Green Bay Packers): D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports PROJECTED TRADE: The Green Bay Packers trade the No. 26 overall selection to the Miami Dolphins for the No. 42, No. 77 and No. 146 overall selections.

With five picks in the first three rounds, the Miami Dolphins can afford to move up at some point to secure a player they covet. If they do not do this to get one of the top three offensive tackles within the top 10 picks of the draft, they could very well end up doing it late in the first round to select Alabama's D.J. Fluker.

With no clear-cut choices on the board for the Green Bay Packers, trading down may be a smart investment for them.

As for the Dolphins, they need an offensive tackle to start opposite Jonathan Martin following Jake Long's departure, and they are interested in Fluker, according to TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.

Projecting Fluker at left tackle would be a stretch, but if the Dolphins plan to move Martin to the left side, Fluker would be a great addition to take over on the right side.

Have seen a GB-Miami trade a couple of places.

IF it were to happen...

Rd 2
Travis Frederick - C/G at 42 (bit of a reach, but a good reach)
Margus Hunt - DE at 55 (Jonathan Hankins or Zach Ertz are options)

Rd 3
Ryan Swope - WR at 77 (DJ Swearinger, Jonathan Jenkins are options)
Joe Kruger - DE at 88

Rd 4
Marcus Lattimore - RB at 122

Rd 5
Joseph Fauria - TE at 146
David Quessenberry - G at 159

Rd 6
Tourek Williams - OLB at 193 (Quanterus Smith is an OLB option)

Rd 7
Braden Wilson - FB at 232

If no trade takes place, I really like Datone Jones at 26, then Travis Frederick at 55, Joe Kruger at 88, Lattimore at 122, Quessenberry at 159, Williams at 193 and Wilson in rd 7.

I'd be happy with Fluker or Williams (DT from UNC) for us at #26 & Montee Ball in second round.

Here is my latest full NFL Mock:

1. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: OT Luke Joeckel…Texas A&M
*Bookend Tackle for the new regime.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (from Jacksonville)
Pick: OT Eric Fisher…Central Michigan
*Philly jumps Oakland as Oakland would have taken Fisher.

3. New York Jets (from Oakland)
Pick: OLB Barkevious Mingo…LSU
*Oakland wants out and the Jets apparently covet Mingo.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Philadelphia)
Pick: DE Dion Jordan…Oregon
*They probably would have draft Jordan at #2.

5. San Diego Chargers (from Detroit)
Pick: OT Lane Johnson…Oklahoma
*They want need a LT and Detroit is looking to move out.

6. Cleveland Browns
Pick: CB Dee Milliner…Alabama
*Easy pick as he is a shut down Corner.

7. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: OT D.J. Fluker…Alabama
*Cardinals looking for an OT and are looking hard at Fluker.

8. Buffalo Bills
Pick: QB Ryan Nassib…Syracuse
*Huge reach, but they don't want to miss out on Nassib.

9. Oakland Raiders (from NY Jets)
Pick: DT Sharrif Floyd…Florida
*Not OT's available, Floyd will solidify their interior DL.

10. Tennessee Titans
Pick: OG Jonathan Cooper…UNC
*Great player, easy pick.

11. Detroit Lions (from San Diego)
Pick: OLB Ezekiel Ansah…BYU
*Detroit apparently looking at Ansah with Pick 5.

12. Atlanta Falcons (from Miami)
Pick: DE Bjoern Werner…Florida St.
*The Falcons are looking to make another huge move and strike before Werner falls too far.

13. New York Jets
Pick: WR Tavon Austin…West Virginia
*Mark Sanchez needs a lot of things, a reliable WR is a good start.

14. Carolina Panthers
Pick: DT Star Lotulelei…Utah
*Easy pick as he shockingly falls to 14.

15. New Orleans Saints
Pick: CB Xavier Rhodes…Florida St.
*They need CBs badly for their new D.

16. St. Louis Rams
Pick: WR DeAndre Hopkins…Clemson
*They've shown a ton of interest in Hopkins. Fills a huge need.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: OLB Jarvis Jones…Georgia
*Huge need and an easy pick.

18. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: S Eric Reid…LSU
*Dallas seems to covet Reid. Should fit in well with all the other overrated Dallas players.

19. New York Giants
Pick: OG Chance Warmack…Alabama
*Very easy pick, great fit in NY.

20. Chicago Bears
Pick: LB Alex Ogletree…Georgia
*Can play SLB next to Williams and Briggs.

21. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: RB Eddie Lacy…Alabama
*They seem to covet Lacy and it does fill a need.

22. Green Bay Packers (from St. Louis)
Pick: DT Sheldon Richardson…Missouri
*They move up to take the very talented, hard working, high motor Richardson before Minnesota can take him and ruin him. Not a huge jump, but it improves the pass rush definitely with a player of his caliber.

23. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: DT Sylvester Williams…UNC
*Now Sylvester can carry reignite the Williams wall.

24. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: CB Jonathan Banks…MSU
*Talented CB who fills a big need.

25. Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle)
Pick: LB Manti Te’o…Notre Dame
*They're definitely interested in Te'o and need help at LB.

26. St. Louis Rams (from Green Bay)
Pick: S Kenny Vaccaro…Texas
*They need the secondary help.

27. New England Patriots
Pick: CB Jamar Taylor…Boise St.
*They've shown a ton of interest in Taylor, seems like a solid fit.

28. Denver Broncos
Pick: DE Cornellius "Tank" Carradine…Florida St.
*Need pass rush help with the loss of Dumervil.

29. Houston Texans
Pick: WR Cordarrelle Patterson…Tennessee
*Need another legit target opposite Johnson.

30. Miami Dolphins (from Atlanta)
Pick: OT Menelik Wilson…Florida St.
*Miami does well in the trade and improves their OLine in the process.

31. San Francisco 49ers
Pick: S Jonathan Cyprien…FIU
*Have shown interest in Cyprien and need to replace Goldson.

32. Baltimore Ravens
Pick: WR Keenan Allen…California
*Need another reliable WR for their franchise QB.

As you can see, I don't see Fluker being even close to available.

quote:

Originally posted by ChilliJon:
Have seen a GB-Miami trade a couple of places.

IF it were to happen...

Rd 2
Travis Frederick - C/G at 42 (bit of a reach, but a good reach)
Margus Hunt - DE at 55 (Jonathan Hankins or Zach Ertz are options)

Rd 3
Ryan Swope - WR at 77 (DJ Swearinger, Jonathan Jenkins are options)
Joe Kruger - DE at 88

Rd 4
Marcus Lattimore - RB at 122

Rd 5
Joseph Fauria - TE at 146
David Quessenberry - G at 159

Rd 6
Tourek Williams - OLB at 193 (Quanterus Smith is an OLB option)

Rd 7
Braden Wilson - FB at 232

If no trade takes place, I really like Datone Jones at 26, then Travis Frederick at 55, Joe Kruger at 88, Lattimore at 122, Quessenberry at 159, Williams at 193 and Wilson in rd 7.

Dream from heaven

quote:

Originally posted by packerboi:
The experts at Bleacher Report sez:

Thompson going the distance without taking a safety would really be surprising.

quote:

Originally posted by Grave Digger:
5. San Diego Chargers (from Detroit)
Pick: OT Lane Johnson…Oklahoma
*They want need a LT and Detroit is looking to move out.

7. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: OT D.J. Fluker…Alabama
*Cardinals looking for an OT and are looking hard at Fluker.

11. Detroit Lions (from San Diego)
Pick: OLB Ezekiel Ansah…BYU
*Detroit apparently looking at Ansah with Pick 5.

The only part I really disagree with is Detroit trading out when they need an Offensive Tackle as much as anyone and "giving" the last, top LT prospect to someone else. A Johnson/Reiff tandem would look pretty solid, at least on paper, or even Reiff/Fluker if they think Reiff can handle the left side. It's not that they couldn't use a DE also, I just question them passing on the "safer" bets at OT.

I've read that the Lions are very interested in trading out. Some teams aren't as sold on Lane Johnson either from what I've read so I wouldn't label him necessarily as a "safe bet". For the Lions, I think the safer bet would be trading out.

quote:

Originally posted by Orlando Wolf:
Thompson going the distance without taking a safety would really be surprising.

I'm struggling with the same thing. But I can't get past the fact GB needs at least 1 or 2 DL out of this draft that are truly capable of getting to the QB. Datone Jones, Tank Carradine, Margus Hunt, Sylvetser Williams, William Gholston.

I look at the quality GB has at CB and think our play at S with the guy's we currently have improves immediately if the DL forces the QB to get rid of the ball faster than they've been able to do over the last two years.

You sort through all the injuries over the last two seasons and not only do you have to deal with the fact lot's of talent spent significant time on the sideline, you have the double groin kick of not really knowing what you have. I like to think Perry is talented enough to be a 10 plus sack guy on a consistent basis. But I honestly have no idea. What does GB really have in Mike Neal? Sean Richardson? Terrell Manning? DJ Williams? What does Jolly have left in the tank? MD Jennings or McMillian?

Going through all the possible scenarios I kept coming back to the same place. DL and OL. I could see TT spending 5 of his 8 picks on those two. I don't think he uses less than 4. But we're talking about TT. He might use 2, nail both, and fill in the rest with BPA.

Draft week is the best!

We can't fill all our needs in one draft and it is a mistake to try. Except for the QB position we can improve at every position. Find the best players regardless of position.

given the below I'd hafta pass on this guy. that's just a few too many for a CB, especially having had surgery on both shoulders.

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So with everyone buzzing about Milliner’s medical status, Adam Schefter of ESPN offers this note: Milliner has undergone a total of five surgeries: a right knee scope, a repair of a sports hernia, a procedure for a right tibia stress fracture and one surgery on each shoulder.

Milliner is still rehabbing after his most recent shoulder surgery, and he might not be ready for the start of training camp.

I see TT trading down and collecting some more picks before I see him moving up. I'm not convinced the guy to replace Collins is presently on the roster and safety needs to be a consideration.

You would think that if he thinks he could get Vaccaro, he'd be willing to make a move.

I don't see Vaccaro falling to where he'd be an option for TT, but one can always hope.

quote:

Originally posted by ChilliJon:

quote:

Originally posted by Orlando Wolf:
Thompson going the distance without taking a safety would really be surprising.

I'm struggling with the same thing. But I can't get past the fact GB needs at least 1 or 2 DL out of this draft that are truly capable of getting to the QB. Datone Jones, Tank Carradine, Margus Hunt, Sylvetser Williams, William Gholston.

I look at the quality GB has at CB and think our play at S with the guy's we currently have improves immediately if the DL forces the QB to get rid of the ball faster than they've been able to do over the last two years.

You sort through all the injuries over the last two seasons and not only do you have to deal with the fact lot's of talent spent significant time on the sideline, you have the double groin kick of not really knowing what you have. I like to think Perry is talented enough to be a 10 plus sack guy on a consistent basis. But I honestly have no idea. What does GB really have in Mike Neal? Sean Richardson? Terrell Manning? DJ Williams? What does Jolly have left in the tank? MD Jennings or McMillian?

Going through all the possible scenarios I kept coming back to the same place. DL and OL. I could see TT spending 5 of his 8 picks on those two. I don't think he uses less than 4. But we're talking about TT. He might use 2, nail both, and fill in the rest with BPA.

Draft week is the best!

If Bulaga and Sherrod can play, that obviously helps. Same with Jolly. Bottom line, that whole story around TT not getting over losing Collins has me convinced he will go with a safety some time in the first few rounds.

Adam Schefter‏@AdamSchefter6h
Teams that have made calls about moving back in draft include PHIL, DET, CLEV, BUFF, MIA.. Doing what they should

3 hours later...

Adam Schefter‏@AdamSchefter6m
Two teams so far that have shown some willingness to move up in the draft are Miami and Atlanta.

The smokescreens are getting thicker. Although I do think Miami is trying to move up.

quote:

Originally posted by michiganjoe:
I don't see Vaccaro falling to where he'd be an option for TT, but one can always hope.

I don't understand the fascination with Vaccaro that some people have. When people say that the talent between round 1 players and round 3 players isn't that different, he's the first one I think of.

I think Cyprien will be available at 26. I don't think he's that far off from Vaccaro, and IMO certainly not enough to trade away picks to move up. I think Cyprien may actually be a better fit next to Burnett than Vaccaro. Vaccaro strikes me as similar to Burnett. Cyprien is more of a heat seeking missle.

I can't decide if S or DL makes more sense here. Or if trading out of 26 and picking up another 2nd and 3rd and then looking at a S like TJ McDonald out of USC in Rd 3 is a better option. Then again, I say this not knowing a lot about the S in this draft beyond Vaccaro, Cyprien and a little about Swearinger....Thursday is going to be crazy.

I don't see the ball skills or the instincts against the pass from Vaccaro...or Cyprien. Vaccaro is a workout warrior in my opinion, he's big and fast and athletic, but to use the cliche, he's a better athlete than football player. Elam is the top all around Safety IMO, he owns the instincts against the pass that Vaccaro and Cyprien lack. I wouldn't take any of them in round 1 though.

DJ Swearinger (South Carolina), Baccari Rambo (Georgia) and Phillip Thomas (Fresno St.) will be the best values. All will go in round 3 most likely. Rambo will be the best Safety from this class IF he keeps his head on straight and stays out of his own way.

Some stellar names in this draft...Rambo, Tank, Ray Ray, Da'Rick to name a few.

I think this would be a great year to trade back if there isn't some "gotta have him" guy available at #26, but I really don't think it's too likely. I think it's going to be a lot harder to trade out of #26 than it might be in some other years. I don't think many teams are going to want to give up a 2nd day pick just to jump up 8 or 10 spots this year; draft's too deep in that range.

quote:

Originally posted by Goalline:
Except for the QB position we can improve at every position. Find the best players regardless of position.

Great comment Goalline...
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From Ask Vic on packers.com


"Would the loss of Collins and Woodson over the past years be enough of a reason for Thompson to draft a safety early, or do you think he and the rest of the management team believe they have enough young talent to not spend a high draft pick on a safety?"


"I really believe you're looking at it the wrong way. The talent of players such as Kenny Vaccaro and Eric Reid is enough of a reason to select them in the first round. You pick the player, not the position. You're looking for talent worthy of the money you're going to pay that player.
You're looking for the best player left on the board. If you don't draft him, you'll leave him for your competition to draft. Do you really want to leave the best player left in the draft for Atlanta and San Francisco to draft, so that you could draft the best player at a position of need?"

.

Of course, Best Player Available varies from team to team, depending on scheme and scouts. Take a 250# DE who can't play in space. Green Bay wouldn't touch him while Atlanta would be just fine with him.

I get it that every team has their own board. And tries to follow that as closely as they can. Does GB build a list of position needs they feel need to be improved and list out BPA based on those positions? Or is it BPA period? I have a tough time with GB going CB in Rd 1 if that's the highest rated guy on the board when it's one of the deepest positions on the team.

I'm just struggling with spending hours and hours of compiling draft information the past week of guy's named Star, Bjoern, and Quanterus when all it takes is picking best grade when you're on the clock. I mean, if I actually spent all that time compiling information. That would have been pretty dumb...

TT has a strict BPA philosophy except when he doesn't. I'll never be convinced that need wasn't a significant part of his equation in last year's draft.

quote:

Originally posted by ChilliJon:
I have a tough time with GB going CB in Rd 1 if that's the highest rated guy on the board when it's one of the deepest positions on the team.

The way to resolve that is to look at the delta between the players

If the CB has a ranking of 101.876765 and the DL has a ranking of 101.473121
then you choose the player at a position of need

What you don't do, and what Ron Wolf owned up to, was picking a guy with an 87 grade over a 101 grade because it was a position of need. That's what they mean by "never jump the board". You can slide a little left or right, but don't make any big jumps based on perceived needs. Needs change too quickly.

Having a chance to think about it, QB wasn't a 1st rd need in 2005, but TT went with the BPA. Otherwise to Vic's point in your earlier post, AR is on another team.

I would think a GM would develop a list of positional needs, OL, DL, S, RB, then apply a some kind of a plus system to those positions. So the top 5-6 rated D linemen would have a draft grade and then possibly a "plus 3, 2, 1.5," (hypothetical stuff here I know) based on the need.

If a player in a position not on the "need" list came up when it's time to make a selection, say a CB with a grade of 91 is available and a DE (or S, RB, OL) with a grade of 84 plus (?), if the CB is still the highest rated guy I agree it's probably best to go that direction.

Bottom line is this, the draft needs to end so I can stop thinking about things like this.

Link to Bob McGinn's top 100 draft board. The article notes that McGinn's draft board has been scored as the best in the country for two consecutive years.

McGinn's Top 100 Prospects

I would say the AR pick was a combination of need and BPA. I think need came into play because the powers that be knew the TOG GB relationship was nearing the end of the road.

BPA strikes me as not much more than the company line from TT to avoid tipping his hand at all. As a general philosophy I'm sure he agrees with it, but actual situations require so much deviation from it that it becomes relatively meaningless.

Wouldn't be surprised if TT took Johnathan Hankins from Ohio State in the first round if available. Big Hank was projected to go in the top half of round one at one point and some said the top 10. He has slipped down some draft boards and could fall into TT's lap at 26. Some mocks have Hankins lasting until round two now but not sure he would still be there at pick 55. In an article in the local central Ohio newspaper today Hankins said the Packers were one of several teams that have shown a lot of interest in him.

Fun Rolling Stone article on mastering the draft. Funny with a little common sense thrown in. Good read.

Bonus points for including a video of Danny Woodhead trying to sell Danny Woodhead jerseys at a Modells Sporting Goods store and being told "he's too small" by customers.

Please draft a LT.

any idea around what time the packers will be drafting @ 26?

Assuming each team takes the full 10 minutes per selection, and factoring in commercials and Mel Jr. rants, they should pick right after #25. Unless they trade up or down or both.

Seriously, impossible to say. Going to be late though. Probably 3 hours in...