+/- of kicking a fucking FG

@Music City posted:

No... no, no, no!

Yesterday’s outcome was not about some systemic failure. That’s nonsense. The Packers lost the game because football is like that- if the margin is that slim, mistakes on the field are why you lose, not some systemic failure. And sometimes, like yesterday, the guys making the mistakes are the guys that got you there to begin with.

Two problems with that argument.  Lesser players make more mistakes.  Lesser players are put in place by the GM and coaches.

The other one is that "getting there" can be much easier than "getting past there".  Our roster and its depth was good enough to beat a lot of mediocre teams and a few good ones but came up short against better competition.  i.e., our WR's are a fine story of underdrafting a position.  but the lack of a legit #2 WR was a big problem yesterday.  Same story with the OL and OL depth.  Great vs. everyone but TB.  Which is why we're all bloodletting this morning.

He's scored 58 points in back to back weeks against 2 of the best defenses in the league, that should be enough to get to the SB. 26 points is a winning output in this context. The difference is basically two instances of mental breakdowns: Jones fumble/Amos blown coverage and Pettine/King bad coverage call and execution. Those two instances account for 14/31 points and ultimately made the difference. Who knows how the game plays out if those things don't happen. At a minimum if the hail mary doesn't happen then we're looking at 26-24.

It's hard to lay the blame on any single thing but if you're pointing to the biggest factors you have to say: 3rd down defense and points off turnovers. Get off the field and capitalize on opponent mistakes, if you can't do those things then you're going to lose 9 times out of 10. It's as team of a loss as we've had in a big game in a long time. Rodgers deserves blame, D deserves blame, coaches deserve blame, Gute deserves blame. It just A game, but losing games of this magnitude two years in a row is starting to show a pattern unfortunately. MLF/Gute need to figure out the problem and solve it. Maybe it's Pettine/Menenga, maybe it's WR, maybe it's just CB, maybe it's a combination of talent/scheme, it's hard to say. They took a hard look at themselves this offseason to iron out problems on offense from 2019, hopefully everyone does the same thing from the FO down and work iron more issues out.

Neither team was flawless yesterday, they both turned the ball over and dropped passes.  We focus on our drops but Evans and Godwin both had balls hit them in the hands.

As others have said, we lost it in the trenches.  Brady had his usual stress free day almost every time he dropped back while AR was almost constantly under pressure.  And we could not get any consistency out of the run game.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

I think a lot of it was losing Aaron Jones. Williams is a good backup, but he's not going to break plays open like Jones does. The criticism could be why not run Dillon more?

Because Dillon can't pick up the blitz. On that topic, did anyone see Dillon absolutely blow up a Tampa blitzing LB in the 4th quarter? A thing of beauty. Coaches are full of shit.

In AR playoff losses

Offense has averaged 25 points per game

Defense has allowed 35.7 points per game

SSDD

@DH13 posted:

Neither team was flawless yesterday, they both turned the ball over and dropped passes.  We focus on our drops but Evans and Godwin both had balls hit them in the hands.

As others have said, we lost it in the trenches.  Brady had his usual stress free day almost every time he dropped back while AR was almost constantly under pressure.  And we could not get any consistency out of the run game.

Sorta like we seldom see our line holding.

Something to consider - in 8 quarters of head to head football v Tampa this year the Bucs were called for 2 penalties.  2!!!  The Packers had 10 across the 2 games v Tampa.

The Bucs averaged 6 penalties per game if you remove the 2 games against the Packers.

I don’t want to suggest the refs screwed the Packers, but statistically that’s a big difference.  

Chalking the NFCCG up to "letting them play" might be understandable.  I don't have an explanation for the WK06 game.

There was a lot of holding in the trenches but holding in general was down this year so not surprised the lack of calls.  

The Patriots made a dynasty out of holding opposing WRs in the playoffs without getting called.  

Honestly, I’m good with “letting them play” but you can’t have it both ways.  The Rodgers INT was an obvious hold as was Lazard near the EZ and even on the long MVS play there was plenty of contact.  The issue I have with the King play is if you watch it there is no way that’s a catchable ball.  Yes, King tugged on his jersey but they bailed out Brady on a terrible throw and that’s what bugs me.  

King had no idea Brady would sail that ball but he did know he was getting beat on the route.  That's why he grabbed.  It's what the DB should do in nearly every situation but that one.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

He went 33 for 48 for 346 yards with 3 TDs and an interception on a blown call. The Packers had no running game, they were missing a Pro-Bowl LT and a Pro-Bowl RB in the second half, Rodgers was constantly under pressure, and his WRs other than Adams still didn't really get much separation (the TD to MVS was on a play where MVS maybe had a step and a half). Compare that to Brady's passes where whoever King or Sullivan was covering often were 4-5 yards clear.

It was Rodgers' fault for not capitalizing? Give me a break.

Same refrain every year. AR needs to play perfectly, or they lose in playoffs. And if he doesn't play perfectly, a faction of the fans blame him for not being perfect.

Below shows the EPA/G for every QB that has started at least 12 post season games from 2000-2020 in The Atlantic this morning.

It ranks them by their teams’ average offensive expected points added (EPA) per game in those playoff starts, according to TruMedia. Rodgers’ offenses have been most productive in the playoffs by that measure, with those led by Brady and Drew Brees not too far behind. The final column shows the key variable beyond the quarterbacks’ control: average combined EPA per game for their teams’ defensive and special-teams units. Here is where Rodgers’ teams rank last by a wide margin — nearly a touchdown per game worse than those for Brady’s teams. By this measure, Rodgers can envy the support Brees and Philip Rivers have received from their defenses and special-teams units during the playoffs, which is really quite remarkable. Brady certainly is incredible, but he didn’t reach those 10 Super Bowls by himself. Tampa Bay ranked seventh in combined EPA on defense and special teams this season. The Packers ranked 21st.

RANK	STARTING QB	OFF EPA/G	DEF & ST EPA/G
1	Aaron Rodgers	+8.6	-7.1
2	Tom Brady	+6.7	-0.3
3	Drew Brees	+6.6	-5.3
4	Philip Rivers	+3.8	-4.2
5	Peyton Manning	+3.1	-2.2
6	Russell Wilson	+2.3	+1.5
7	Eli Manning	+2.3	-2.1
8	Ben Roethlisberger	+1.9	-0.8
9	Joe Flacco	+1.0	+4.2
10	Donovan McNabb	-1.0	+4.3

That reference needs to be framed.  It sums up so many things about this team and AR in the post season.

And it should forever answer any future questions about "which HOF QB should have won more SB's but didn't have enough talent around him"?

Everybody get their what ifs, they failed at this point, the players didn’t play well enough at such and such a time, the stats said this, etc. bullshit out of the way?

It doesn’t matter two shits what happened before that goal line series.  None of it.  You’re down 8 points with the fucking Super Bowl on the line.  That’s the reality in that space and time, nothing else matters at that point.

Aaron Rodgers on the field.  Kicks a fucking field goal.

Quit making excuses, it was a shit call.

Rogers is almost Dan Marino

*Correction: Alexander allowed one reception for 19 yards in coverage

— PFF (@PFF) January 25, 2021

If he isn’t considered the best CB in the NFL after yesterday/this past season he never will be. That kid is playing lights out

@Henry posted:

Aaron Rodgers on the field.  Kicks a fucking field goal.

Quit making excuses, it was a shit call.

Was it the wrong call? Absolutely. But let's play the "what if" game.

Rodgers throws a TD pass & EQ doesn't drop the 2-point conversion this time & they TIE the game.

Is the Packer defense going to get ANOTHER stop on Brady & the Bucs or do you think Brady drives down & gets a FG?

Packers had ample opportunity & many chances to win that game. They didn't get the job done & even if they got the ball back with :30 seconds & no timeout, I highly doubt they punch it in.

Yeah I laughed at kicking the FG too but it's not the only reason they lost.

@Timpranillo posted:

Same refrain every year. AR needs to play perfectly, or they lose in playoffs. And if he doesn't play perfectly, a faction of the fans blame him for not being perfect.

Below shows the EPA/G for every QB that has started at least 12 post season games from 2000-2020 in The Atlantic this morning.

It ranks them by their teams’ average offensive expected points added (EPA) per game in those playoff starts, according to TruMedia. Rodgers’ offenses have been most productive in the playoffs by that measure, with those led by Brady and Drew Brees not too far behind. The final column shows the key variable beyond the quarterbacks’ control: average combined EPA per game for their teams’ defensive and special-teams units. Here is where Rodgers’ teams rank last by a wide margin — nearly a touchdown per game worse than those for Brady’s teams. By this measure, Rodgers can envy the support Brees and Philip Rivers have received from their defenses and special-teams units during the playoffs, which is really quite remarkable. Brady certainly is incredible, but he didn’t reach those 10 Super Bowls by himself. Tampa Bay ranked seventh in combined EPA on defense and special teams this season. The Packers ranked 21st.

RANK	STARTING QB	OFF EPA/G	DEF & ST EPA/G
1	Aaron Rodgers	+8.6	-7.1
2	Tom Brady	+6.7	-0.3
3	Drew Brees	+6.6	-5.3
4	Philip Rivers	+3.8	-4.2
5	Peyton Manning	+3.1	-2.2
6	Russell Wilson	+2.3	+1.5
7	Eli Manning	+2.3	-2.1
8	Ben Roethlisberger	+1.9	-0.8
9	Joe Flacco	+1.0	+4.2
10	Donovan McNabb	-1.0	+4.3

So, Rodgers has lost three games in the playoffs in OT (twice where he never touched the ball and once on a missed face mask call). He's lost two other games by 5 and 3 points. With an average defense like Brady has that's 5 extra wins by that stat.

@Boris posted:

Was it the wrong call? Absolutely. But let's play the "what if" game.

Rodgers throws a TD pass & EQ doesn't drop the 2-point conversion this time & they TIE the game.

Is the Packer defense going to get ANOTHER stop on Brady & the Bucs or do you think Brady drives down & gets a FG?

Packers had ample opportunity & many chances to win that game. They didn't get the job done & even if they got the ball back with :30 seconds & no timeout, I highly doubt they punch it in.

Yeah I laughed at kicking the FG too but it's not the only reason they lost.

Or hey, lets say you get the TD on 4th down, AND you get the 2pt conversion, AND you DO stop Brady from getting a field goal.  Do you win the coin toss in OT?  Or do we lose it and not give Rodgers another chance to win like how many other OT games we've had?

Going for it on 4th down would have been a fine call but just as much (if not more) would have had to go right for us to win the game.

@Boris posted:

Was it the wrong call? Absolutely. But let's play the "what if" game.

Rodgers throws a TD pass & EQ doesn't drop the 2-point conversion this time & they TIE the game.

Is the Packer defense going to get ANOTHER stop on Brady & the Bucs or do you think Brady drives down & gets a FG?

Packers had ample opportunity & many chances to win that game. They didn't get the job done & even if they got the ball back with :30 seconds & no timeout, I highly doubt they punch it in.

Yeah I laughed at kicking the FG too but it's not the only reason they lost.

So you obviously aren't done with "what ifs".

Aaron Rodgers on the field, kicks a FG.  If you're going to lose at least lose giving it your best shot.

Takes the fucking FG anyways.

@vitaflo posted:

Or hey, lets say you get the TD on 4th down, AND you get the 2pt conversion, AND you DO stop Brady from getting a field goal.  Do you win the coin toss in OT?  Or do we lose it and not give Rodgers another chance to win like how many other OT games we've had?

Going for it on 4th down would have been a fine call but just as much (if not more) would have had to go right for us to win the game.

Well of course!  Rodgers can't bend the fabric of time to make everything perfect.  Fuck it!  Forfeit.

What if the refs from the Buffalo-KC reffed the NFC Championship game.  Think they would of used their whistles a little more to give each team a fair chance to compete. 

The biggest play of the game was the Scotty Miller TD.   It put Tampa up 2 scores and took the wind out of their sails and that bad mojo carried into the 3Q where Jones fumbled and Tampa converted it for another easy TD.  28-10 and that was the ballgame.  

It’s remarkable the Packers were even in a position to make it a game but that’s what is so frustrating about the loss.  2 minutes. The time between the Pettine/King debacle and the Jones fumble and one play Tampa TD where Amos forgot how to play football and cover someone.  

Not to pour salt in the wound, but if you really want to be pissed off, watch the Scotty Miller play again.  Watch what Jaire does and what King does.   Jaire is playing like 10 yards off the ball yet immediately goes into his backpedal because he knows the only play is over the top and he does not want the WR to run by him.  What does King do?  He’s 5-6 yards off the ball and STANDS STILL when the ball is snapped.  I mean, Miller is a 4.3-40 guy.  King isn’t despite his bullshit combine numbers that said he ran a 4.4-40.  

King may have been hurt but that was some of the laziest chickenshit football I’ve seen.  King was already thinking about halftime.  Brady knew it and it was a simple play.  

Man coverage on the play before the half was not the right/best call. That said, it was the call and King did a piss poor job of playing man on his guy.

If he actually covers/defends his man, the TD likely does not happen.

This week in Austin.

Shocked! The sun is coming up 😎🌞 day after day after day. Who knew?

It's sort of funny that the result was decided before halftime.

2 plays-Adams td 'drop' and the "Hail Marvin" td accounted for at least a 9 point swing. (+4 for a GB td, -4 for for a TB fg, +1 for an xp instead of a failed 2 pt try)

Then we're all talking about the defense' last stand (or failure).

@grignon posted:

It's sort of funny that the result was decided before halftime.

2 plays-Adams td 'drop' and the "Hail Marvin" td accounted for at least a 9 point swing. (+4 for a GB td, -4 for for a TB fg, +1 for an xp instead of a failed 2 pt try)

Then we're all talking about the defense' last stand (or failure).

And the first possession of the third q where they fumble on the 8.

-18 points right there...

From Michael Rodney: :

-D allows 9 of 11 conversions on 3rd down in 1st half
-17 drops a TD
-12 throws an INT
-25 drops an INT
-Pettine/King fuck up
-33 fumbles
-red zone struggles
-19 drops 2 pt. conversion
-OTs can't protect

One decision by LaFleur didn't lose this game. It was a total team effort.

It's amazing they made it a game after the Jones disaster. That was vintage 70s-80s Packer football, along with a good handful of other plays. Every tough spot that we argue back and forth, Green Bay put themselves in those spots. If you're catching a dump pass and you don't know there's a good chance of taking a big hit, you get what you get. If it happened once in the first half, and you let it happen again, you probably shouldn't be on the field. If you choose to not grab a lollipop throw from the greatest ever, you just gave the greatest ever another chance. If you decide to play against a fg with less than 10 sec on the clock, and decide to go single high, you just gave the greatest ever *another* chance.

I'm not ecstatic about the way AR played, but he didn't shit the bed like some of his teammates and coaches. The difference last night was once again, Brady barely dirtied his jersey and once again his teammates picked up slack, and our guy had to deal with JPP and Suh and the whole front 7 just to barely get a clean look downfield. Whether it was due to one single draft pick or unfortunate circumstance like losing Bakh and fielding KK with a bad back, Plenty of blame, and no one should be spared criticism. Had they won, it would be a team win. And so it is when they lose. Gute, MLF, Pettine, AR, Jonesy, Turner, King, etc all played a part in 14 wins and in a gutting loss.

Defense bailed Brady out Sunday just like they did against the Saints and just like they did frequently in NE. Nothing illustrates that better than his 4-1 playoff record when throwing at least three picks.

AR doesn't have to play perfectly in playoff games, but he certainly lacks that margin for error due to the supporting cast surrounding him.

@YATittle posted:

From Michael Rodney: :

-D allows 9 of 11 conversions on 3rd down in 1st half
-17 drops a TD
-12 throws an INT
-25 drops an INT
-Pettine/King fuck up
-33 fumbles
-red zone struggles
-19 drops 2 pt. conversion
-OTs can't protect

One decision by LaFleur didn't lose this game. It was a total team effort.

Six points off three turnovers is a glaring omission (couldn't even get a single first down after two of them). Same thing that really hurt the team in the 2014 Seattle choke.

I didn't like the feel when they didn't just punch it in from the 4 on their second scoring drive. They ran it down to the 4 and then got way too cute. If you run it 4 straight from the 4 and cannot punch it in to bring it back to even, I am fine with that. I thought that it set the tone for the rest of the game.

But you couldn't do that. You had to put the ball in Rodgers hands.   I think Williams or Dillon would have got those yards.   RTFB!!!

@michiganjoe posted:

Defense bailed Brady out Sunday just like they did against the Saints and just like they did frequently in NE. Nothing illustrates that better than his 4-1 playoff record when throwing at least three picks.

AR doesn't have to play perfectly in playoff games, but he certainly lacks that margin for error due to the supporting cast surrounding him.

Yea ultimately this is the issue for Rodgers (and most QBs). I’m certain the reason Brady chose Tampa is that they said “we will do whatever it takes to get the defense and weapons around you to make sure you succeed.” Tom Brady wouldn’t be playing if he had to do what Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes has to do.

@Tschmack posted:

The biggest play of the game was the Scotty Miller TD.   It put Tampa up 2 scores and took the wind out of their sails and that bad mojo carried into the 3Q where Jones fumbled and Tampa converted it for another easy TD.  28-10 and that was the ballgame.  

It’s remarkable the Packers were even in a position to make it a game but that’s what is so frustrating about the loss.  2 minutes. The time between the Pettine/King debacle and the Jones fumble and one play Tampa TD where Amos forgot how to play football and cover someone.  

Not to pour salt in the wound, but if you really want to be pissed off, watch the Scotty Miller play again.  Watch what Jaire does and what King does.   Jaire is playing like 10 yards off the ball yet immediately goes into his backpedal because he knows the only play is over the top and he does not want the WR to run by him.  What does King do?  He’s 5-6 yards off the ball and STANDS STILL when the ball is snapped.  I mean, Miller is a 4.3-40 guy.  King isn’t despite his bullshit combine numbers that said he ran a 4.4-40.  

King may have been hurt but that was some of the laziest chickenshit football I’ve seen.  King was already thinking about halftime.  Brady knew it and it was a simple play.  

King played Pettine mode CB spot, all season long. Pettine had King play soft coverage on almost all of his defensive plays, all season. King is much better playing man coverage, until the NFCCG, where he got demolished by the deep ball from Brady. King's play gave creedence to his detractors on Sunday. He is a much better player than he showed. But, this is the NFL, and his performance and the salary cap situation will see him leaving the Packers, for another team, somewhere, for next season. His play on Sunday helped Gute and Co. make that decision an easy one.

@YATittle posted:

From Michael Rodney: :

-D allows 9 of 11 conversions on 3rd down in 1st half
-17 drops a TD
-12 throws an INT
-25 drops an INT
-Pettine/King fuck up
-33 fumbles
-red zone struggles
-19 drops 2 pt. conversion
-OTs can't protect

One decision by LaFleur didn't lose this game. It was a total team effort.

All that plus the consecutive 4th quarter 3-and-outs by our offense(after the defense picked Brady in crunch time).

....and still .....only one play short of the Super Bowl.

@Grave Digger posted:

Yea ultimately this is the issue for Rodgers (and most QBs). I’m certain the reason Brady chose Tampa is that they said “we will do whatever it takes to get the defense and weapons around you to make sure you succeed.” Tom Brady wouldn’t be playing if he had to do what Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes has to do.

Tampa Bay decided that 1-2 years of a clearly declining HOF QB was worth the risk of having a few mediocre to poor years following it. The gamble paid off (even though I think the Chiefs will run them out the stadium in two weeks).

The Packers decided that another 3-4 years of what they thought was a declining HOF QB wasn't worth the risk of some potentially poor seasons in 2022-2024 and made decisions accordingly. Rodgers is SIX YEARS younger than Brady.

But they are not tubing in Tampa

I know who the better team is. The scoreboard doesn't always reflect it.

No excuses. #1 seed, game at Lambeau -- they fucked up & had a multitude of opportunities to win.

It just looked like they were mentally overwhelmed in too many situations during the game.  From players to coaches.  I don't know that you can fix that.  Is it the youth?  Shouldn't be the case for the older vets but there is a lot of inexperience on the field and on the sideline.  The alternative is that they are collectively too soft mentally in crunch time.