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Here's some retro, head shaking, keerap: In that draft where the Packers gave up their first round pick, to drop into the 2nd Round, to take Kevin King, not only did they not take TJ Watt, they also passed on Cooper Kupp, who was taken at pick 68, of that draft. Basically, the Packers missed on picking Jordy Nelson, 2.0 and they missed on fan favorite TJ Watt, as well.

Their best shot on paper for any more wins is vs DET and CHI and I'm really not too sure about either.  They might eek out one of those in the same way other bad teams eek out wins they shouldn't.  Just by the math of about half of those 14 teams playing each other, they can't all go 3-14.  We'll probably end up around #7 and without the firepower to move up into top 3 on draft day.

But the real problem is - does anyone trust Gute & Co. with improving this roster on draft day?  There are a handful of teams out there that have been bad for a long time despite picking in the top 10 almost perennially.  And their one common thread is they didn't have an elite QB and they couldn't draft one either.   We could end up one of those teams.

Here's an interesting scenario. I do not think it's crazy to think by season's end, this team is well into double digit losses. Already, they are sitting at #9. They haven't been that high since selecting BJ Raji. All the mock boards are assuming GB takes a WR like Njiba-Smith, but I seriously wonder if the Packers get close to or in the top 5, whether Gute would package a trade sending Jordan Love out the door and then draft one of the QB's that are slated to go in the top 8.

I just get the vibe they don't feel Love is their franchise QB. He's improved yes, MLF said nice things last summer, but this isn't the same confidence I am sensing they had with Rodgers in 2007-8. I just wonder if Gute would reset this whole thing, draft one of these rookie QB's he hasn't been able to bring in this high in the draft and go with AR in 2023 then hand the thing over to a Will Levis/H. Hooker type in 2024.

That also gets the Packers out of using the 5th year option on Love, saving cap dollars.

If the Packers are sold on Love, then they can go get a game wrecker at pass rusher to line up with Gary.

When your GM is picking this high and this close to the dart board, it's a lot easier to hit on a marquee player. Which is very likely the case come May 2023 at 1265. 

Not a great year for TE in the draft...here are the current TE rankings, Mayer is the only one with a first round grade, all the others I think are 3rd-7th.

Gurt isn't spending a 1st rounder on Mayer...ain't happening.

1. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
2. Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
3. Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State
4. Jaheim Bell, TE, South Carolina
5. Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
6. Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State

@packerboi posted:

Here's an interesting scenario. I do not think it's crazy to think by season's end, this team is well into double digit losses. Already, they are sitting at #9. They haven't been that high since selecting BJ Raji. All the mock boards are assuming GB takes a WR like Njiba-Smith, but I seriously wonder if the Packers get close to or in the top 5, whether Gute would package a trade sending Jordan Love out the door and then draft one of the QB's that are slated to go in the top 8.

I just get the vibe they don't feel Love is their franchise QB. He's improved yes, MLF said nice things last summer, but this isn't the same confidence I am sensing they had with Rodgers in 2007-8. I just wonder if Gute would reset this whole thing, draft one of these rookie QB's he hasn't been able to bring in this high in the draft and go with AR in 2023 then hand the thing over to a Will Levis/H. Hooker type in 2024.

That also gets the Packers out of using the 5th year option on Love, saving cap dollars.

If the Packers are sold on Love, then they can go get a game wrecker at pass rusher to line up with Gary.

When your GM is picking this high and this close to the dart board, it's a lot easier to hit on a marquee player. Which is very likely the case come May 2023 at 1265.

Gutey was enamored with DeShone Kizer in the 2017 draft and traded with Cleveland for him as soon after he assumed the GM position in 2018. Kizer was awful in GB and quickly was out of the league.

"In 2019, Gutekunst was reportedly infatuated with Missouri quarterback Drew Lock. The Packers brought Lock in for a visit and he was thought to be in play for the Packers’ 30th overall pick. They ultimately traded out of that spot and jumped to 21 to get Darnell Savage, but reportedly would have taken Lock with the 44th pick had Denver not traded up and grabbed him at 42."

https://www.acmepackingcompany...uarterback-situation

Lock busted in Denver and is a backup in Seattle. He is just another Brett Hundley.

In 2020, Gutey traded his #1 and #4 picks to select Jordan Love despite a slew of WRs being available to a WR needy team. He obviously loved, loved, loved Jordan Love.

Given this history, and if as you state above the Packers "don't feel Love is their franchise QB," why would any sane Packer fan trust Gutey to make the right call on a QB in the 2023 draft?

@Chongo posted:

Not a great year for TE in the draft...here are the current TE rankings, Mayer is the only one with a first round grade, all the others I think are 3rd-7th.

Gurt isn't spending a 1st rounder on Mayer...ain't happening.

1. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
2. Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
3. Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State
4. Jaheim Bell, TE, South Carolina
5. Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
6. Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State

Washington at UG looks like a Marcedes clone.  I wouldn't mind him in the 3rd or 4th.

@DH13 posted:

Washington at UG looks like a Marcedes clone.  I wouldn't mind him in the 3rd or 4th.

You mean he's an offensive tackle playing TE? Lewis was a very good TE 10 years ago, now he's a guy that opposing DCs know they don't have to worry about in the passing game and can scheme accordingly.

M. Lewis has 3 targets this year in almost 300 snaps. You can cover him in the passing game with a defensive lineman.

In his Packers career, he's played 1873 snaps and been targeted with a pass 71 times and has 54 catches in 75 games.

DeGuara is not much better in terms of a ratio. He's played 556 snaps on offense and been targeted 47 times or 37 catches.

Tyler Davis has been targeted 13 times in 236 snaps and has 8 receptions.

Most good NFL offenses are at least partially based on having a good dual-threat TE on the field that can threaten you in the passing game and at least contribute in the running game. Look at the teams that have gotten to and/or won Super Bowls since the Packers won 12 years ago. At least half of them have had a TE that is a future HOFer, or a multi-time Pro Bowler. New England/Tampa Bay (Gronk-5 times), Kansas City (Kelce-twice), SF (Kittle), Philly (Ertz), Denver (Julius Thomas), SF (Vernon Davis). Those guys were or are all threats to beat safeties in the middle of the field and help you in the run game. Even the Rams (two Super Bowl trips) have Tyler Higbee, who is a very good TE.

Tonyan is a decent guy to have as your backup TE, but the Packers have to get another TE. The Packers have used three 3rd round picks in the last 8 years on TEs and none of them were any good. RichRod is still in the league, but he makes the current verison of M. Lewis look fast. His career highlight is catching a Hail Mary pass. Sternberger was one of the worst draft picks of the last decade in terms of a guy who provided nothing. DeGuara should have been an UDFA practice squad type.

Imagine how Rodgers would have looked the last decade dropping back and passing to a guy like George Kittle or Kelce?

The good news is, looking at the Packers remaining schedule 7-10 is probably best case...and I could see it even going 5-12 or 6-11...worst case Packers are drafting 12th, best case could be 7th or 8th.

2022 draft...

RoundPickTeamPlayerPositionSchool
11Jacksonville JaguarsTravon WalkerDEGeorgia
12Detroit LionsAidan HutchinsonDEMichigan
13Houston TexansDerek Stingley Jr.DBLSU
14New York JetsAhmad GardnerCBCincinnati
15New York GiantsKayvon ThibodeauxDEOregon
16Carolina PanthersIckey EkwonuOLNC State
17New York GiantsEvan NealOTAlabama
18Atlanta FalconsDrake LondonWRUSC
19Seattle SeahawksCharles CrossOTMiss St
110New York JetsGarrett WilsonWROhio State
111New Orleans Saints (via WAS)Chris OlaveWROhio State
112Detroit Lions (via MIN)Jameson WilliamsWRAlabama
113Philadelphia Eagles (via HOU)Jordan DavisDTGeorgia
114Baltimore RavensKyle HamiltonSNotre Dame
115Houston Texasn (via PHI)Kenyon GreenGTexas A&M
116Washington Commanders (via NO)Jahan DotsonWRPenn State

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