Playoffs discussion

anyone else notice how none of the talking heads are pounding the desk about how a division winner shouldn't be in the playoffs if their record is below .500 - since it's happening in the NFC Least this time? 

It's likely that the Vikings lose on Thursday at Arizona. That's a brutal schedule for the Vikings to have to play Seattle and then fly halfway across the country to play a Thursday game against a Cardinals team that essentially had to play only 3 quarters against the Rams.

Carolina is going to be the #1 seed and the Cardinals are almost certainly going to be the #2 seed unless we beat them in Phoenix (very unlikely). The NFC East champs are very likely to be the #4 seed as everyone in that division already has at least 6 losses.

So, if the Packers beat the Romo-less Cowboys at home and the Vikings in the finale, they are the #3 seed at 10-6. Which means they would play the #6 seed (the second wild card) which is likely to be the Vikings or the Seahawks. I think the Seahawks end up as the #5 seed and play the NFC East champs and the Vikings (or Buccaneers/Falcons) are the #6 and play Green Bay. If that happens, the Packers would advance would visit the Cardinals in Phoenix while the Seahawks would advance and play the Panthers.

Beating Dallas and Oakland, if we do, will set us up nicely for the Cardinals, who may not win their division. I'm a fool but still think #2 seed is possible.

YATittle posted:

Beating Dallas and Oakland, if we do, will set us up nicely for the Cardinals, who may not win their division. I'm a fool but still think #2 seed is possible.

The Cardinals are 10-2 and lead the Seahawks (7-5) by 3 games. They already beat the Hawks in Seattle and can go no worse than 4-2 in the division (Seattle could go 4-2 as well). The Cardinals have a 7-1 conference record compared with the Hawks 6-4 conference record. It's extremely unlikely they lose the division. The #2 seed is still somewhat in doubt, but that will come down to the Packers-Cardinals game for their to be any shot at all.  

If the Cardinals beat the Vikings on Thursday they'll be 11-2 and get to play the Eagles with 10 days of rest. They follow that with the Packers and Hawks. The Packers would have to win out to go 12-4 and the Cardinals would have to lose to the Packers and Hawks to end at 12-4.

Which isn't that completely wacky of an equation if we knew what Packers team was going to show up.

Christ, more starry eyed optimism.

If they don't get the offense at least partially fixed it really doesn't matter. Anyone that needs a reality check should just watch the first half of the Lion game. 

MichiganPacker posted:

 

So, if the Packers beat the Romo-less Cowboys at home and the Vikings in the finale, they are the #3 seed at 10-6. Which means they would play the #6 seed (the second wild card) which is likely to be the Vikings or the Seahawks. I think the Seahawks end up as the #5 seed and play the NFC East champs and the Vikings (or Buccaneers/Falcons) are the #6 and play Green Bay. If that happens, the Packers would advance would visit the Cardinals in Phoenix while the Seahawks would advance and play the Panthers.

Then the Packers beat the Cardinals and Seattle beats Carolina.  The Packers would then be hosting Seattle in the championship.  This is how we all envisioned it. 

Henry posted:

Which isn't that completely wacky of an equation if we knew what Packers team was going to show up.

Christ, more starry eyed optimism.

There are a couple of reasons for optimism if you are looking through green and gold colored glasses.

First, even before Richard Rodgers caught the Hail Mary, he looked like an above average NFL TE for the first time in his career. I was shocked to see him running away from guys in coverage and he's always had good hands. If he even remotely resembles the guy we saw in the Lions game, he's going to be the go-to guy. Second, getting Abbrederis and/or maybe Montgomery healthy has got to help. The less we see of Davante Adams the better, and I think both of these guys being available will help in that regard. Third, Quarless being available has to help. Even if it's just to go 2 TEs and get Adams on the bench.

Troy posted:

MichiganPacker posted:

 

So, if the Packers beat the Romo-less Cowboys at home and the Vikings in the finale, they are the #3 seed at 10-6. Which means they would play the #6 seed (the second wild card) which is likely to be the Vikings or the Seahawks. I think the Seahawks end up as the #5 seed and play the NFC East champs and the Vikings (or Buccaneers/Falcons) are the #6 and play Green Bay. If that happens, the Packers would advance would visit the Cardinals in Phoenix while the Seahawks would advance and play the Panthers.

Then the Packers beat the Cardinals and Seattle beats Carolina.  The Packers would then be hosting Seattle in the championship.  This is how we all envisioned it. 

Certainly possible, the problem is that Carson Palmer is the type of QB that shreds Capers defenses. That is, a veteran QB who reads defenses well and won't panic and throw bad interceptions into coverage. Capers defense works well against guys like Nick Folk, Bridgewater, and Stafford and Cutler (I know we lost to them, but should win any game that the defense holds the opponent under 20).

I think a Palmer-led Cardinals team puts up at least 30 on us and I'm not sure the Packers are going to put up points on the Cardinals since even average NFL DBs have handled Packer WRs this year and the Cardinals DBs are outstanding. I like the Packers chances against the Seahawks and Panthers since I think it's more likely our defense holds up against them. As good as Cam has played, he's still prone to mistakes when he throws downfield and Russell Wilson doesn't have the weapons to put up a ton of points against a decent defense.

I would stop selling Russell Farb short at this point.  He's really playing well with what he currently has in SEA.

On RR, he did have a great game vs DET but that was probably more the result of just having a good game vs all of a sudden flipping a switch and being a decent TE.  He has shown that ability in the past but there has been more evidence of him struggling this year than excelling.  

ya gotsta get RR going vertical.  throwing those short yardage quick outs to the sideline to him and expecting him to YAC is unrealistic. 

Packers' playoff chances improve

According to calculations by FiveThirtyEight.com, the Packers now have a 95 percent chance to make the playoffs. The same projections say they have a 62 percent chance to win the NFC North, a 14 percent chance to have a first-round playoff bye and a five percent chance to win the Super Bowl.

My best case scenario is a 3-1 finish and #3 seed.

I would add to MichiganPacker's post above that Aaron Rodgers looked as good in the second half against the Lions (Hail Mary aside) as he has all season.

82's production had a lot to do with that but I also thought 12 was trying to stay in the pocket a bit longer instead of bailing early to resort to scramble plays (which opposing defenses have learned to counter to telling their DBs to expect these, and not drop coverage earlier).

Captain Obvious here but Aaron getting his mojo back makes this team competitive against any opponent.

MichiganPacker posted:

The less we see of Davante Adams the better.....

 Need to let him work through his rough patch. Had an extremely good game against the Cowboys last year and a repeat wouldn't surprise me.

If the Pack beats the Vikes in week 17 they should win the NFC North, unless something really strange happens to the Packers or Vikings in weeks 14-16. 

Unless the Pack wins out (including beating Arizona in Arizona and Arizona loses another game) they would also likely be the 3rd seed, even if they won the NFC North.

The Vikes are 8-4. They play at Arizona Thursday and are 7.5 dogs. They then play the Bears & Giants at home before coming to Lambeau in week 17. Assuming they go 2-2 and finish 10-6, they will likely be the 6th seed in the NFC.

That is because Seattle now owns the tiebreaker over the Vikings and plays the 4-win Ravens & Rams (at home), as well as the Browns (at home) the team with the worst record in the NFL. They end the year at Arizona (which may not have anything to play for if they've already clinched the 2nd seed and can't overtake Carolina for #1). Seattle is playing well and will likely finish 3-1 or better, and thus finish at 10-6 or 11-5 and get the 5th seed.

So, if they are the 3rd seed, there is a good chance the Packers will play the Vikes in back-to-back weeks -- during the final week of the season and then the first week of the playoffs.

I am with Henry that I would be more optimistic if I knew which team is going to show up to play.  So at this point I say lets get in the playoffs and see how things shake out.    I look at the remaining schedule and I think the best scenario is to win 3 out of 4 down the stretch (Cowboys, Raiders, and Vikings) and the worst is they split.  So I do see them winning the division.

As for the playoff games I think I am the only person in the country who thinks the Panthers could be beaten.  Newton is playing out of his mind and their D is pretty good but I am just not sold on them. 

The Cardinals are a solid team all around but they have laid some eggs this year.

Redskins? really?  My wife is a Redskins fan so I have to at least watch them and I do hope the Packers don't play them.

Seattle?  I don't want any part of them right now.  They are getting hot and they look like the Hags again.  but at least we would get them at home.

Coulda/shoulda/didn't beat the Panthers a month ago....but I'm holding onto coulda

The Packers control their fate as far as winning the division goes.  They need help though to get a #2 seed.  The only way to get that #2 seed is for Arizona to start losing some ballgames.  With that said I won't actually be rooting for the Vikings on Thursday, but it won't hurt my feelings at all if they pull off a miracle.

ARI  has games remaining MIN, @PHI, GBP, & SEA. They should be favored in all. And they should win these last 4.

SEA continues to roll and that last game will be really interesting to watch.

Packers win out, they're probably the 2 seed. Arizona has Philly on the road (can they play spoiler?), and home games against GB and SEA to finish. That can be a 2-2, 1-3 schedule. In a way, we should be pulling for a Vikings win Thursday. 

the Packers win out they're in Lambeau until the SB (because Carolina won't survive their first game). 

Hungry5 posted:

ARI  has games remaining MIN, @PHI, GBP, & SEA. They should be favored in all. And they should win these last 4.

I have a hunch AZ is only going to win 2 of them

For the Pack to win anything, #12 needs to step up his game.  At least he showed signs of his old self in the 2nd half vs. the Lions but..... its the Lions, and there will be much tougher defenses to face in the playoffs.

Somehow, someway, #12 is going to have to be much quicker in going through his reads than he has been, and he's going to have to make more plays from the pocket as the better defenses aren't going to let him beat them from outside the hash marks.   His accuracy has been un-Rodgers like and he needs to get that fixed like NOW for the Pack to do any playoff damage.  At least there were signs of it coming back this past game so there is some hope that it's getting fixed.

That's why having AZ in Week 16 is so big. I see them as the best team in the NFC right now, though SEA quickly making it's own case.

If the Pack aren't playing well enough to go into AZ and make a game of it by that point of the season, it really doesn't matter how the seeds shake out.

Playoffs start this week. Except you don't have to go home if you lose....but you might as well if you can't beat the Cowboys & Raiders

Boris posted:

Playoffs start this week. Except you don't have to go home if you lose....but you might as well if you can't beat the Cowboys & Raiders

I'd agree with this about the Cowboys game at home. The Raiders are no pushover and playing West Coast games is never easy for even good Packer teams.

Our Playoff run will probably require to beat the Seahawks at home.

If we win the North, and the Cardinals take their's and solidify the No. 2, the NFC side looks like this:

1. Panthers

2. Cardinals

3. Packers

4. NFC Least

5. Seahawks

6. Vikings/Eagles

This plays out with the Packers hosting the Vikings/Eagles, traveling to Arizona, and going to Carolina or, more probably, hosting the Seahawks.

The flipside is the Cardinals going 1-3 to end the season (beat Vikings, lose to Packers, Eagles, and Seahawks).  This would probably give us the Seahawks in the divisional and then a trip to Carolina for the NFC Championship.

Regardless, the probable scenarios have us hosting the Seahawks no matter what.

The Seahawks look like a real threat right now with how well they are playing and I think the Cards are the best team in the NFC.  Barring some kind of miracle Arizona will be the 2 seed.  

Unless Minnesota turns things around I don't think they are a shoe-in for the playoffs either.  Road games at AZ and GB are almost guaranteed losses and the Bears are no pushover and it's a divisional game.  The Giants have lost a lot of close games and can score points. 

This season there are no guaranteed home wins for GB

The weird thing is, if AZ locks up the #2 seed and wants to rest players, the Green Bay game would be the time to do it. Strategically, Green Bay would be the team they're most likely to face, Seattle has more familiarity, being in their division, and if they rested week 16, that's an awfully long layoff between games. 

Of course there's no guarantee they'll have the #2 locked up and, more importantly, Bruce Ariens is their coach. 

Again, it's really hard to have any expectations for this team right now.   Hate to say it but they could just as easily go 8-8 if the Lion game doesn't spark something.

Lets take a look at that Lion game, one touch down was a fumble recovery in the end zone, one was a great pass and catch by Adams, one was a 30 yd QB run and one was a 60 yard Hail Mary.  4 TD's, 3 of which may never happen again.

Not to be negative but perspective is needed.  Go Pack.

One game at a time.  Just get by Dallas.

Pikes Peak posted:

Lets take a look at that Lion game, one touch down was a fumble recovery in the end zone, one was a great pass and catch by Adams, one was a 30 yd QB run and one was a 60 yard Hail Mary.  4 TD's, 3 of which may never happen again.

Not to be negative but perspective is needed.  Go Pack.

One of which could actually be the thing that breaks things loose: the 30 yard QB run.  

I'm going to keep typing this, stop reading if you are sick of hearing it: Montana made a practice of it.  He wasn't even that good a runner, no better than Rodgers, but when his receivers were covered, he wouldn't even wait, just tuck it and run.  Then--and this is the key--he'd do it again on the very next play.  Then do it again and again until the secondary started breaking off their coverages.

Rodgers does it once and goes back to waiting for the receivers to get open.  He needs to steal that page from old Joe.  They have a lot in common. He can always slide  (a luxury JM didn't have) or run OOB.

I realize in this offense it is not the QB's job to run but running is not why you do it.

The last time Arizona rested their players against GB, they only won because the refs missed a blatant facemask penalty.  

I like the scenario where the Packers slaughter the queens in the playoffs.  Anything more than that is icing on the cookies.  

I see the 2nd half comeback vs DET as a positive for:

How they got down to the 5 yard line before the fumble recovery in the EZ.

How the D created a turnover and then the O capitalized with the pass to Adams.

How AR recognized the DBs all had their backs to him on the 17 yard TD run.

How the team didn't quit when down 20-0 with a little over 23 minutes left in the game.

It all becomes negative if they don't dominate DAL.

Quicksand. Football folks know what it means. It's an avalanche of wrong, piling on you and you cannot escape. The harder you try, the worse it gets. That how players once playmakers drop easy passes. That how MVPs get spooked and not throw to a wide open receiver on a designed pick play, or overthrow a wide open target down the field. 

Sometimes you just need to break free. Get the weight off your shoulders. Feel joy in the game again, instead of the weight of everyone's (and your own) expectations. 

Maybe it's a romantic notion, but a Hail Mary can do that...

That movie sucked.