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@Slobknocker posted:

Biggest plus of the game was MLF realizing that going for 2 down 14 points gave the Packers a better shot at winning the game then playing for the tie and seeing what happens in OT. Conventional wisdom says to kick the extra point, score another touchdown, kick that extra point and tie the game at 17-17. Theoretically, the Packers scored those last two touchdowns would have the momentum as they likely would be heading into overtime. But this obscures one crucial point, the goal is to win the game, not tie it. Tying the game simply means you're asking your Joe Barry defense to make another stop and your offense to put together a third scoring drive, rather than two. If overtime is involved, this brings a coin flip into the equation, where your offense must score a third touchdown (if you win the toss) or make a stop and then kick a field goal (if you lose the toss).If the 2-point try was successful, the Packers would now trail 17-11, and another touchdown plus an extra point wins you the game. What's more statistically likely: putting together three consecutive scoring drives (7 + 7 + 3) or converting one 2-point conversion (8 + 7)? If the Packers' 2-point try didn't work, keeping their deficit at 17-9, that didn't doom their hopes. It's still a one-possession game at that point. A touchdown and a 2-point conversion ties the game, leaving the Packers exactly where they'd been had they just kicked the PAT. But even if you miss both 2 point conversions, your still OK. Remember, kicking two extra points still requires three scoring drives to win -- TD, TD, FG. But missing both 2-point tries still leaves you with a chance to win the game in three drives in this scenario -- 6 + 6 + 3 gives you 15 points, enough to erase a 14-point deficit.

@EC Pack posted:

I was told there would be no math.....

The equation is missing the logic of passing on a field goal attempt down 17 with 15:00 to go and instead turning it over on downs at the 13.  Pick up 3 there it's a 2 possession game with 15 to go.  Instead, you make it a 3 possession game with 15 to go.  Have to believe analytics says needing 2 possessions with 15 to go is better than needing 3.

The equation is missing the logic of passing on a field goal attempt down 17 with 15:00 to go and instead turning it over on downs at the 13.  Pick up 3 there it's a 2 possession game with 15 to go.  Instead, you make it a 3 possession game with 15 to go.  Have to believe analytics says needing 2 possessions with 15 to go is better than needing 3.

Another part of the equation .... MLF said in his presser that he told Love that if they came to the LOS of scrimmage and he saw something he liked (something with a high percentage of successfully getting the first down) to go for it, if not that would have taken the delay and kicked the FG. The First down was there but he and Taylor weren't on the same page.

Positives:

Crowd was about as loud as I've heard it for the final 10 minutes of the game.

Gotta love 4th quarter comebacks. That was the big knock on Rodgers his first few years and Love already has a big one in his hip pocket.

Defense played very well throughout the game.

Young guys still making big impacts. Don't really have a choice, we have so many of them.

Rashan Gary. I wasn't aware he played less than 40% of the snaps. The guy is just unblockable.

Quay Walker. Damn, this guy is gonna make a push for All Pro as a sophomore.

Negatives:

First 45 minutes of the game.

Lots of people packed up and left late in the 3rd / early in the 4th quarter. Your loss, suckers!

Campbell and Valentine leaving with injuries.

Penalties. This 3 game stretch has to be the worst one under LaFluer for unforced errors.

Dillon. Woof. It's an improvement over last week but 3 YPC isn't gonna cut it. Need Jones healthy the rest of the year.

Last edited by PackerHawk
@PackerHawk posted:

Positives:

Rashan Gary. I wasn't aware he played less than 40% of the snaps. The guy is just unblockable.

I think it was H5 posted this earlier

If Gary is stoned on the other 16 snaps (he wasn't) that's a 30.4% win rate. Official stats come out Wednesday -- Dude is an animal & the Saints O-Line isn't bad

Last edited by Boris
@Blair Kiel posted:

I was never that brave to try that and I have way too many family members that text about the game in real time. I’ve tried it with preseason games, but even that was a fail…I set a game to record and as I was out and about, my phone was blowing up and I knew someone must have gotten hurtβ€”that’s the only reason anyone would text during a preseason gameβ€”-it was Jordy’s knee.

I definitely have to turn the phone off-and I have been doing this so long--my family and most everyone I know understands --that in my words--I am trying to achieve media blackout--I worked weekends on a psych unit during my VCRing days -and it was a very diagnostic  exercise to see who on the unit would want to telegraph the score and who would not----for both staff and patients

@Tschmack posted:

+ + +

they won a game they had no business winning

Love with the 4Q comeback (fuqk u Rodgers)

Gary was pretty disruptive

- - -

A whole lot

I was thinking they had no business losing that game.

It seemed (to me) they played better than the Saints did.  Stupid penalties at the most inopportune times really handicapped the Packers.  If not for those, I don't think the Packers would have been down by 17.

@titmfatied posted:

Not sure if anyone brought this up in the game day thread but I haven't seen or heard a single "analyst" bring this up about the 2 point conversion.

You are now down by 6 with 7 minutes left to play. I think they still had 3 timeouts left at that point? 2 for sure. Let's say your next drive stalls and you are in FG range with maybe 3 minutes left. You can take the FG there and play for another possession to either win with a TD or send the game to OT with another FG.

@PackerHawk posted:

Not sure if anyone brought this up in the game day thread but I haven't seen or heard a single "analyst" bring this up about the 2 point conversion.

You are now down by 6 with 7 minutes left to play. I think they still had 3 timeouts left at that point? 2 for sure. Let's say your next drive stalls and you are in FG range with maybe 3 minutes left. You can take the FG there and play for another possession to either win with a TD or send the game to OT with another FG.

I've see it analyzed a few times. I think the best explanation I saw is doing it the way Lafleur did gives you a 13% better chance of winning than the conventional way. I think you'll see this more in the league just like you see more 4th down attempts.

@PackerHawk posted:

Not sure if anyone brought this up in the game day thread but I haven't seen or heard a single "analyst" bring this up about the 2 point conversion.

Mina Kimes mentioned it and how she loved it.

You play to win the game! Hello!

Completely agree with the decision to go for two. Even if you miss you still have the opportunity for a tie. That's why it was the correct decision in that situation.

Analytics baby....it works. 

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