The interesting thing was that looking at McGinn’s top players list, not only did those guys mostly line up with the top spots, but they cam off almost in order. The Packers had three picks in the top 100, and got only one of the guys on that list. Is Gutekunst the only smart GM in the NFL, or the dumb one?
Interesting no-flinch take from Ketchman:
Jordan Love is a shift-in-philosophy pick. That's what you do when you pick a quarterback in the first round because quarterback is the centerpiece, the foundation on what you're attempting to build. Aaron Rodgers was that player for Ted Thompson and Love is that pick for Brian Gutekunst. In my opinion, the message in the Love pick is the Packers are moving on. They're not going to continue to throw money and picks at the defense in a desperate attempt to give Rodgers what he needs to win one more Super Bowl. They've done that seemingly forever and it hasn't worked. The Packers are preparing to step into their future with a new way of playing football and selecting talent. The A.J. Dillon pick cemented that opinion for me. He's one of my favorite players in the draft. He is a true pounder and I think he's the best back in the draft. D'Andre Swift looked wimpy in the loss to South Carolina. Dillon never looks wimpy. Josiah Deguara is a blocker. He's a block-a-lot, catch-a-little tight end who also offers scheme potential as a fullback or H-back. When Dillon and Deguara are in the game together, Rodgers better not change the play, if you know what I mean. You want me to help you see the bigger picture? OK, here it is: I get the sense the Packers wanna play big boy football. After that embarrassing performance in San Francisco, it's about time.
Kind of butt hurt take.
So Ketchum says they should give up on improving the defense for Rodgers sake while claiming they want to play "big boy" ball?
Despite TT's missed defensive picks are you really going to give up on improving the defense? Big boy ball? Pretty sure it's still a passing league and the run game is just a part of it. Ignore the defense, brilliant.
@DH13 posted:Interesting no-flinch take from Ketchman:
Jordan Love is a shift-in-philosophy pick. That's what you do when you pick a quarterback in the first round because quarterback is the centerpiece, the foundation on what you're attempting to build. Aaron Rodgers was that player for Ted Thompson and Love is that pick for Brian Gutekunst. In my opinion, the message in the Love pick is the Packers are moving on. They're not going to continue to throw money and picks at the defense in a desperate attempt to give Rodgers what he needs to win one more Super Bowl. They've done that seemingly forever and it hasn't worked. The Packers are preparing to step into their future with a new way of playing football and selecting talent. The A.J. Dillon pick cemented that opinion for me. He's one of my favorite players in the draft. He is a true pounder and I think he's the best back in the draft. D'Andre Swift looked wimpy in the loss to South Carolina. Dillon never looks wimpy. Josiah Deguara is a blocker. He's a block-a-lot, catch-a-little tight end who also offers scheme potential as a fullback or H-back. When Dillon and Deguara are in the game together, Rodgers better not change the play, if you know what I mean. You want me to help you see the bigger picture? OK, here it is: I get the sense the Packers wanna play big boy football. After that embarrassing performance in San Francisco, it's about time.
"They're not going to continue to throw money and picks at the defense in a desperate attempt to give Rodgers what he needs to win one more Super Bowl."
What a joke. Someone pull up the pathetic defensive record in the playoffs since we won in 2010....
@Henry posted:Kind of butt hurt take.
So Ketchum says they should give up on improving the defense for Rodgers sake while claiming they want to play "big boy" ball?
Despite TT's missed defensive picks are you really going to give up on improving the defense? Big boy ball? Pretty sure it's still a passing league and the run game is just a part of it. Ignore the defense, brilliant.
I don't think they've given up on AR, quite the opposite. They're giving him the ability to close out games by fortifying the running game. Last season, GB raced out to a lead only to have to hang on for dear life at the end.
They are also featuring a strong running game to get defenses out of playing cover 2 - which Rodgers hates. He'd love to see single high more frequently and one way to do that is to have a punishing run game that forces the Safety into the box. There is definitely a change going on, but I think vic is off base in what those changes mean.
I agree 100% Satori. The philosophy shift is not from "Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love" or "Aaron Rodgers to Matt LaFleur", it's to "lets not make Aaron Rodgers win on his own". Previous regime took AR and his abilities for granted overall, never thinking about how to make life easier on him. If they can craft a dominant run game in front of Rodgers, the old man will take less of a pounding and dominate. They tried this with Favre in the early 2000's (2001 to 2004 with Green, Davenport, Franks, Rivera, Wahle, etc.) with some positive results (tremendous reduction in sacks, arguably best passing stretch of Favre's career), but couldn't obviously get the defense right.
IF you want to feel good after the draft, any draft - here's a simple check list:
1) Remind yourself that you don't know squat - because you don't
2) Remind yourself that you don't have $25 million to spend on a front office
3) remind yourself that you are not an NFL scout, not even close
4) see number 1
Every year the whining, kvetching and misery follows the draft just like Winter follows the Fall. And most of it can be traced to the fact that the Packers chose different players than you would have chosen. And in order to close that gap, fans are quick to say "Gute is an idiot, the Packers effed up ! "
The real culprit is the dumbass you see in the mirror every morning. And as soon as you enlighten that dumbass, you'll never feel crappy post- draft again.
So easy a caveman could do it.
Or you can continue to delude yourself into thinking you DO know squat and be miserable every April for the rest of your life. Choose wisely 
@Troy posted:Yeah, I let the games be played before I said they weren't as good as their record. If they would have won the Super Bowl I wouldn't be saying they weren't as good as their record. The difference between you and I is I still had hope during the playoffs. You wrote them off during the season before they could prove us right or wrong.
It is clear now that they are nowhere near the 49ers.
I had not written them off but I certainly had doubts based on the regular season patterns. I was trying to be realistic while hoping for the best.
For what it's worth SI has a way too early 2021 draft posted.
Lions pick 8th taking a WR
Bears pick 17th taking an OL
Vikings pick 18th (if they get it in in time) taking a DT
Packers pick 22nd taking a WR, Rondale Moore from Purdue.
Guess who is winning the NFC North again.
@Satori posted:IF you want to feel good after the draft, any draft - here's a simple check list:
1) Remind yourself that you don't know squat - because you don't
2) Remind yourself that you don't have $25 million to spend on a front office
3) remind yourself that you are not an NFL scout, not even close
4) see number 1Every year the whining, kvetching and misery follows the draft just like Winter follows the Fall. And most of it can be traced to the fact that the Packers chose different players than you would have chosen. And in order to close that gap, fans are quick to say "Gute is an idiot, the Packers effed up ! "
The real culprit is the dumbass you see in the mirror every morning. And as soon as you enlighten that dumbass, you'll never feel crappy post- draft again.
So easy a caveman could do it.
Or you can continue to delude yourself into thinking you DO know squat and be miserable every April for the rest of your life. Choose wisely
Well it's the internet, so I feel like you're shouting into the wind here brother.
@Grave Digger posted:I agree 100% Satori. The philosophy shift is not from "Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love" or "Aaron Rodgers to Matt LaFleur", it's to "lets not make Aaron Rodgers win on his own". Previous regime took AR and his abilities for granted overall, never thinking about how to make life easier on him. If they can craft a dominant run game in front of Rodgers, the old man will take less of a pounding and dominate. They tried this with Favre in the early 2000's (2001 to 2004 with Green, Davenport, Franks, Rivera, Wahle, etc.) with some positive results (tremendous reduction in sacks, arguably best passing stretch of Favre's career), but couldn't obviously get the defense right.
So then.. Maybe using your 1st and 4th on a player who will ride the bench behind the guy this is all designed to protect for at least 2 years isn't the best move?
You can't have it both ways. If we are indeed selling out on becoming a power run team, then replacing Bulaga and upgrading run defense should be way higher priority than the future QB.
Because Jordan Love won’t benefit from a strong run game behind him?
@Satori posted:IF you want to feel good after the draft, any draft - here's a simple check list:
1) Remind yourself that you don't know squat - because you don't
I know things, crazy things.
2) Remind yourself that you don't have $25 million to spend on a front office
I just mugged Jamie Dimon. I took his spending money.
3) remind yourself that you are not an NFL scout, not even close
I scout things all the time. Where every bathroom is on every office floor for example
4) see number 1
I'm always looking forward, never back.Every year the whining, kvetching and misery follows the draft just like Winter follows the Fall. And most of it can be traced to the fact that the Packers chose different players than you would have chosen. And in order to close that gap, fans are quick to say "Gute is an idiot, the Packers effed up ! "
I don't know who this "Gute" fellow is but I do know you can't fill all your holes.The real culprit is the dumbass you see in the mirror every morning. And as soon as you enlighten that dumbass, you'll never feel crappy post- draft again.
So easy a caveman could do it.
I have no mirrors in my place. Or garlic. Or sharp pointy sticks.
Or you can continue to delude yourself into thinking you DO know squat and be miserable every April for the rest of your life. Choose wisely
Again, I know things. Like the best time to get donuts at Kwik Trip.
@ammo posted:For what it's worth SI has a way too early 2021 draft posted.
Guess who is winning the NFC North again.
Another NFC North title will mean 7 in 10 years.
And another season without a SB appearance.
Yippee.
Which team from an NFC Division that actually sends teams to the Super Bowl do we get to lay down for in next season's playoffs?
"Or you can continue to delude yourself into thinking you DO know squat and be miserable every April for the rest of your life. Choose wisely "
Some would be miserable if they couldn't be miserable.
When you come across draft pundits, shun them. They aren't drafting for the Packers, they are writing for clicks and views
But if you have to engage, then ask them one simple question:
Over the last 2 decades of NFL football, which franchise has derived the most value from the draft ? ( this is from Pro Football Reference)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EU...t=jpg&name=small
The answer is the Mighty Green Bay Packers.
And that stat is not corrected for draft position, so teams like the Browns and Jags who have multiple top 10 picks still derived less value than the Packers who mostly drafted late during that time frame.
You can read more about the metric here:
https://www.pro-football-refer.../blog/index37a8.html
If nothing else, they've earned the benefit of the doubt. They don't often do what you would do, but nobody has done it better than the Packers since 1999.
Go Packers
Interesting draft for sure. Confidence in current players impacting picks along with some players missing Gute's lap seems to be the theme.
Does this draft leave the door ajar for Clay Mathews?
When is the Super Bowl trophy arriving in Queenland? May? July? No later than August.
Jerruh Jones in the Yaht was awesome. America's something.
Can we get a Packer stock holder walleye fishing in a 16 fter on the Fox?
@Satori posted:
If nothing else, they've earned the benefit of the doubt. They don't often do what you would do, but nobody has done it better than the Packers since 1999.
Go Packers
I am going to judge Gute on what he has done as GM, not what Ron Wolf or Ted Thompson did.
So far, his first two drafts of 19 players have led to three starters, a punter and a long snapper. Looking at his 2018 draft two years in, his 2nd and 3rd round pick from 2018 rarely play; the second rounder was left inactive in several games last year. He drafted three WR's that year, none have panned out thus far with one cut.
Could have done better.
@Satori posted:Over the last 2 decades of NFL football, which franchise has derived the most value from the draft ? ( this is from Pro Football Reference)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EU...t=jpg&name=small
The answer is the Mighty Green Bay Packers.
Quick question.
Given that the team under Ted almost never signed free agents and made even fewer trades for players on other teams, would you not expect Green Bay, by default, to have derived the most "value" (that is most games played, started, etc.) from its own draftees.
To take but one example, Richard Rodgers was an absolute VALUE after being taken in the 3rd round of the 2014 drafted because he started so many games and got "production" in the formerly dynamic Packer passing attacks.
Does anyone really consider R. ****** to have been a value rather than Exhibit A in the Ted's stubborness to go with how own draft picks?
I mean Datone Jones started a lot of games was he a value pick under this approach? Or a first round bust?
And Karl Bradford and Demetri Goodson lasted longer on the Packers roster than anyone outside of Ted could possibly have dreamed. But I guess given they were 4th and 6th round picks respectively they were great value picks.
I think if you look at the Pack's drafts since 2011 they have been, at best, mediocre and in several years (2011, 2015, and trending that way for 2018) piss poor.
@SteveLuke posted:
I think if you look at the Pack's drafts since 2011 they have been, at best, mediocre and in several years (2011, 2015, and trending that way for 2018) piss poor.
I think that's a fair statement. Rodgers covered up a lot of weaknesses on the team and the chickens came to roost in 2017/18 when he was out or playing injured.
It's early enough in Gute's tenure that things still need to play out a bit. As bad as they looked in the Championship game last year, they were in the Championship game and that's quite a turnaround considering how bad 2017/18 were.
Let's just see if some of Gute's guys can turn it around. Certainly guys like Gary and Jackson have been underwhelming and the J'Mon Moore pick was a disaster, but let's see if Gary, Jackson, and some of the other young guys we've added in the past 2-3 years can make a jump. If nothing else, Gary was only 21 years old for most of the season last year, so he was VERY young for his draft class. He may need the natural strength and bulk that guys typically put on as they age before he'll start living up to his potential... if he ever does.
Packers Super Bowl odds went from 20/1 pre-draft to 18/1 post-draft. Guess Vegas liked their draft if no one else does.
And the Vikings A draft got them all the way up from 30/1 to 28/1.
@slowmo posted:I am going to judge Gute on what he has done as GM, not what Ron Wolf or Ted Thompson did.
So far, his first two drafts of 19 players have led to three starters, a punter and a long snapper. Looking at his 2018 draft two years in, his 2nd and 3rd round pick from 2018 rarely play; the second rounder was left inactive in several games last year. He drafted three WR's that year, none have panned out thus far with one cut.
Could have done better.
Ron Wolf always said his goal was to get 3 starters from every draft class, if you can do that, you should be in good shape for years to come. So far Gutey's drafts have not been impressive.
Did Wolf expect them to start the year they were drafted?
@ammo posted:Packers Super Bowl odds went from 20/1 pre-draft to 18/1 post-draft. Guess Vegas liked their draft if no one else does.
And the Vikings A draft got them all the way up from 30/1 to 28/1.
Hooray, the Pack vaulted all the way up to the 7th ranked SB "favorite" in the 16 team NFC.
| Kansas City Chiefs | +600 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +700 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +900 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1100 |
| New Orleans Saints | +1200 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1800 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +2000 |
| New England Patriots | +2000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +2200 |
| Green Bay Packers | +2500 |
All teams whiff in the draft and every GM ever will tell you the same thing
Packer fans in general and especially the Debbie Downer types obsess over the misses. But...that's where context comes in handy.
And looking at the chart of total value, the Packers did better than any other team for the last 20 years. So if you say the Packers whiffed, what does that say about the 31 other teams who ranked lower than the Packers ?
It says they whiffed more.
And many of them were drafting ahead of the Packers so they had a shot at better players in every. single. round. but they still came up short.
@mrtundra posted:I think one mock from one of the NFL.com guys had Love at 30. Fromm was another QB some had there. As far as rounds 2-7, nothing even close.
Jon Runyon Jr showed up in a couple of mocks as a late round Packers' pick too.
But ya, the mocks and the actual draft seem to be from separate planets.
@Satori posted:All teams whiff in the draft and every GM ever will tell you the same thing
Packer fans in general and especially the Debbie Downer types obsess over the misses. But...that's where context comes in handy.And looking at the chart of total value, the Packers did better than any other team for the last 20 years. So if you say the Packers whiffed, what does that say about the 31 other teams who ranked lower than the Packers ?
It says they whiffed more.
And many of them were drafting ahead of the Packers so they had a shot at better players in every. single. round. but they still came up short.
All teams certainly WHIFF at the draft.
Belichik and the Pats have notoriously WHIFFED at the draft.
Of course, Belichik and the Pats also traded for more players than any other NFL team during the period of time you are extolling the virtues of the Packers "value" drafting.
NE also signed numerous free agents.
Thus, despite their many, many draft WHIFFS, the Patriots somehow were able to get to more than 1 Super Bowl this century.
The goal should be to win SBs rather than to collect back slaps because mediocre draft picks stay around longer on your team than any other.
@SteveLuke posted:Hooray, the Pack vaulted all the way up to the 7th ranked SB "favorite" in the 16 team NFC.
Kansas City Chiefs +600 Baltimore Ravens +700 San Francisco 49ers +900 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1100 New Orleans Saints +1200 Dallas Cowboys +1800 Philadelphia Eagles +2000 New England Patriots +2000 Seattle Seahawks +2200 Green Bay Packers +2500
But, but where a the queens?
I feel better this week. I almost used profanity Thursday night! I was grumpy Friday night and kinda sad on Saturday.
But thanks for asking.
@SteveLuke posted:Hooray, the Pack vaulted all the way up to the 7th ranked SB "favorite" in the 16 team NFC.
Kansas City Chiefs +600 Baltimore Ravens +700 San Francisco 49ers +900 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1100 New Orleans Saints +1200 Dallas Cowboys +1800 Philadelphia Eagles +2000 New England Patriots +2000 Seattle Seahawks +2200 Green Bay Packers +2500
If the Pack wins the NFC North they'll automatcally have an easier road to a Super Bowl than 3 of those teams. Of Tampa, New Orleans, Seattle, San Fran, Dallas, and Philly, only 3 of them can be division champs. If the Pack is good and lucky like they were last year, those other teams may beat on eachother enough that once again maybe the Pack gets a bye and a home game or 2 in the playoffs. Being in the crappy NFC North does have its' advantages. 😀
@Grave Digger posted:I agree 100% Satori. The philosophy shift is not from "Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love" or "Aaron Rodgers to Matt LaFleur", it's to "lets not make Aaron Rodgers win on his own". Previous regime took AR and his abilities for granted overall, never thinking about how to make life easier on him. If they can craft a dominant run game in front of Rodgers, the old man will take less of a pounding and dominate. They tried this with Favre in the early 2000's (2001 to 2004 with Green, Davenport, Franks, Rivera, Wahle, etc.) with some positive results (tremendous reduction in sacks, arguably best passing stretch of Favre's career), but couldn't obviously get the defense right.
Great point Digger. There is one thing that can really make the defense work than having to stop the run AND have to worry about play action with AR. I have always said the way to win in football is to be balanced and that will force the defense out of just pinning their ears back and rushing the passer. I think that is what MLF is all about being balanced and keeping the defense honest.
@Satori posted:I don't think they've given up on AR, quite the opposite. They're giving him the ability to close out games by fortifying the running game. Last season, GB raced out to a lead only to have to hang on for dear life at the end.
They are also featuring a strong running game to get defenses out of playing cover 2 - which Rodgers hates. He'd love to see single high more frequently and one way to do that is to have a punishing run game that forces the Safety into the box. There is definitely a change going on, but I think vic is off base in what those changes mean.
My point was about giving up on building a defense "for Rodgers". Doesn't matter who the QB is why the fuck would you give up on building a defense and then talk about playing "big boy ball"? Pretty sure a bruising defense is the epitome of "big boy ball", which makes Ketchum look like a fucking idiot.
@PackerPatrick posted:I feel better this week. I almost used profanity Thursday night! I was grumpy Friday night and kinda sad on Saturday.
But thanks for asking.
Same here, PackerPatrick. However, I did use profanity on Thursday night. I feel better about things today. I also think a couple of our UDFAs will stand out in camp, if there is a camp. RB Patrick Taylor, CB Stanford Samuels and DE Tipa Galeai may stand out but may get relegated to the PS. I did like Gute's picks in the 6th round. All OL depth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZbyItcP8G0
This video on Reggie Begelton gave me some solace after GB did not draft a WR...
I have gone through a rollercoaster of emotions in regards to this draft. I've finally settled on the idea of I don't know squat. The last time I was really excited about who the Packers drafted was Reynolds/Ferguson and look how that turned out. My uneducated opinion is that our 2nd round pick is the only player that we can expect to be a big contributor this year. It is true that we did not fill any of what the fans/media felt were our most glaring needs. However, it's rare that one particular player or players from any given draft puts a team over the hump in that given year.
So here is my opinion on several scenarios after this draft:
Dream scenario: Rodgers completely buys into the new offense and after another year under their belt and improvement from the RB position, the Packers are able to ground & pound and burn teams with play action. Our new MLB stays healthy and Burks figures it out. The defense is improved and we are able to stop the run and cover with our MLB.
Worst case scenario: Rodgers is pissed and becomes a complete prima donna. He stops listening to MLF and turns into a complete distraction. The lack of WR and RT stifles the offense even further. Our new MLB can't stay healthy and we find no complement for the other MLB spot. We get run over by most teams and fail to make the playoffs.
Likely scenario: The run game is improved and play action helps our receivers get open. Our defense is mostly the same as last year. We regress to the mean in terms of W/L because we don't pull off as many close wins as we did last year. We make the playoffs, but not the Super Bowl. We head into the 2021 draft/offeseas still needing to fill the same spots we did in 2020.
@DocBenni posted:I've finally settled on the idea of I don't know squat.
Congratulations and welcome aboard !
Great post and one comment on your worst case scenario. Most of that pre-madonna stuff and AR being pissed comes from others projecting their thoughts and behaviors onto Aaron. And some of the people doing the projections are just idiots trying to stir the pot. It could happen, but I doubt it.
Here's a good read on the man. Tune out the post-draft crapola and take some time to read and imbibe this lengthy interview, I think it sheds light on how he thinks and how he will handle the next chapter in his career.
There was a stat posted by I believe Next Gen Stats that through around week 10 last season, the Packers led the NFL in WR separation. Under MM in his last year here, they finished 14th. The year before that, they were like 20th in the NFL.
The reason I bring that up is because if you go back and look at 2019 film, even TV tape, there were multiple times in games Rodgers had at least 1 WR breaking open where he chose another option and the pass went incomplete or Rodgers had to throw it away. Now when you are 13-3, a lot of that shit goes unnoticed or doesn't get talked about.
But it's highly likely MLF sure as Hell noticed and took note. The offense he's designed call for a lot of high percentage play action plays where WR's are schemed open. Something we BEGGED would happen under MM and rarely did it happen. So instead, Rodgers improvised again and again and we saw a sandlot style football game where Rodgers waited forever for a WR to get open and the OL had to block forever.
Now the million dollar question is will AR fully buy into this offense where he's basically going to be asked to be a game manager? Will he be OK throwing 4-5 yard curl routes, a 6 yard out route, or something else considered "dink and dunk" over and over to move the chains and get a fresh set of downs?
I hope the answer is yes. Because the days of him going for a 31 yard completion try to Davante Adams on a 3rd and 3 play are likely to be far and few between under MLF. Under MM, he could do that all game and his HC didn't dare say a word.