This is weird. Of the last 18 QBs to start and lose a Super Bowl in their debut, none of them made it back to the game.
Bill Barnwell weighs on in Shanny's OT decision - TL;DR, anyone who is supremely confident Shanny made the wrong call to go first is too confident. There are no stats that back up that going second provides a massive advantage and there are too many variables to account for to say either decision is flat out better in all situations. Which is the whole reason why the NFL went to this OT - the coin flip does not provide a significant advantage.
Interesting stat from the article - in CFB, the team getting the ball second in OT only won 51% of the time. So going second and knowing what you have to do on offense barely gave an advantage in CFB OT. So not statistically significant in CFB.
A friend who's a Niner fan can't believe they didn't call time out before that third down play near the goalline when nobody blocked Chris Jones.
Heat of the moment. Some things are easier to see from your TV in the comfort of your lay-z-boy.
@YATittle posted:This is weird. Of the last 18 QBs to start and lose a Super Bowl in their debut, none of them made it back to the game.
Funny thing about this....I thought of Delhomme, Grossman and Kaepernick right away.....
I think it's way too early to write off Burrow & Hurts.
Interesting though.
@CUPackFan posted:Bill Barnwell weighs on in Shanny's OT decision - TL;DR, anyone who is supremely confident Shanny made the wrong call to go first is too confident. There are no stats that back up that going second provides a massive advantage and there are too many variables to account for to say either decision is flat out better in all situations. Which is the whole reason why the NFL went to this OT - the coin flip does not provide a significant advantage.
Interesting stat from the article - in CFB, the team getting the ball second in OT only won 51% of the time. So going second and knowing what you have to do on offense barely gave an advantage in CFB OT. So not statistically significant in CFB.
Even Barnwell admits there are no stats for something that hasn't happened before.
Barnwell lists 4 arguments to support the idea that going 2nd isn't a massive advantage.
#1 is debunking that teams know what do based on it's like CFB OT rules... but then he adds that the rules aren't the same.
#2 No guarantee to get the ball back. While this is true, the chances of a 3rd possession are stacked against them. Last team with the ball wins... heard this since we were kids.
#3 Who the opposing QB is, in this case Mahomes. Maybe if the opposing QB is inconsistent and doesn't have the resume of Mahomes taking the ball first makes sense, I just don't agree in this game/instance.
#4 Shanahan messed up his OT drive. Using hind-sight isn't really an argument for or against the idea of taking the ball 2nd is an advantage.
Was the decision right or wrong, who really knows. I have more of a problem with Shanahan's explanation of why... wanting the 3rd possession.
@Boris posted:Funny thing about this....I thought of Delhomme, Grossman and Kaepernick right away.....
I think it's way too early to write off Burrow & Hurts.
Interesting though.
I thought of Marino first thing
I thought of Jim Kelly because I knew where the cherry-picked data range would have to end.
Shanahan's decision doesn't say much about his confidence in his D. I think we need 2 chances to their 1.
Polluted mindset.
