Bucks vs. Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals

I don’t think it’s fair to say that this team needs an overhaul. What they need is their best player to become what they need. We’ve seen Giannis do what we’re talking about time and time again. He’s still learning how to do this. His game isn’t complete, but it’s becoming that. It’s awfully short sighted to think that this 26 year old kid is a finished product.

As I said in the Nets series when everyone was calling “series!” - he’s still evolving. It’s an awful lot to ask this kid just 10 years removed from an Athens ghetto to play and compete at that level- but don’t think for a second he doesn’t have it in him. Every experience he has is new- and now he’s experiencing this- you dropped the ball and now you’re hurt. He has the support system and  everyone is telling him the same thing. Keep evolving, keep improving, don’t waste these lessons.

Regarding Middleton, he’s not Kobe. He’s Ginobli. If he would just accept that he’ll be a lot better for it, and so would the Bucks.

Way back when Dave Winfield played for the Yanks he was called Mr May by his owner after failing in the playoffs.   Seems to me that the Bucks are a team of Mr Mays , coached by another Mr May and like Chuck said they need a mother to set a tone.  I thought Holiday would take that roll, doesn’t look that way now.

The coach can be the guy that takes a player from good to great. They’re not all MJ…

I don’t think they need an overhaul either

Their starting core group is still intact for the next 2 years and Forbes and Pat C will be back as well.  I doubt Portis returns given his 3.8MM option and obviously Tucker’s contract expires.

As for Bud, he needs to be shown the door the minute the season is over.  You see first hand what good coaching can do (Hawks, Clippers, Suns) and our guy just doesn’t get it.

We will know whether they need an overhaul when the MRI results come out today. If it's an ACL, it's very likely Giannis has to sit out a large portion or all of next season as well. If that's the case, do you try to reload for two years from now? They aren't winning anything without him, so do you try to move Lopez (or even Middleton) to get an infusion of young talent. If Giannis isn't going to have a chance to really be back to normal until the 2022-23 season, Middleton will be 32 and Holiday will be 33 the summer following that season. PJ Tucker will be 38 and Lopez will be 35. That's obviously not a recipe for a title run.

The best case (unfortunately less likely) scenario is that Giannis "just" has some capsular damage or another non-surgical injury and he's done for the rest of the playoffs. This season is then basically over. The Bucks aren't going to fire Bud when he had them on the precipice of the finals before Giannis got hurt. They run this team back and get beat in the 2nd round of the playoffs as other teams improve or have better injury luck. The Bucks have shot their load in terms of getting talent here. I agreed with all the moves and Horst did a good job or maximizing their chances to win, but their title window probably slammed shut last night and as much as Bud drives me nuts with his schemes sometimes, the window closing has nothing to do with Bud.

Disagree on Bud.

It's time to move on.

Giannis or no Giannis.

@Tschmack posted:

I don’t think they need an overhaul either

Their starting core group is still intact for the next 2 years and Forbes and Pat C will be back as well.  I doubt Portis returns given his 3.8MM option and obviously Tucker’s contract expires.

As for Bud, he needs to be shown the door the minute the season is over.  You see first hand what good coaching can do (Hawks, Clippers, Suns) and our guy just doesn’t get it.

The Clippers may lose the Western Conference Finals because they couldn't defend an out-of-bounds play with less than a second left. That's a gigantic coaching gaffe. The Hawks are likely going to make the Finals because Embiid and Giannis got hurt. McMillan and Lue were fired from previous stops.

Look, Bud is not a top 5 coach, but it's not like he's Jason Kidd. In the end, it's almost always who has the best players left at the end of the playoffs that wins a title.  Was Phil Jackson a better coach than Don Nelson? Spoelstra looked like a genius last year and like someone who lost his team this year. Nick Nurse was screaming at Siakam about 3 months ago and won a title really because he had Kawhi Leonard and FVV went nuclear.

Until 7 minutes left in the 3rd quarter last night, the Bucks had the most healthy talent in the playoffs. The tone of the game had changed even last night at the beginning of the half and it was a tossup whether they come back and win.

McMillian wasn’t winning much in the playoffs with Indiana or Portland given who they had to get past - namely Cleveland with LeBron or the GS Warriors.

Ty Lue has done a remarkable job getting PG13 to play at a higher level.  Is he the best X and O guy?   Probably not.  But he knows how to push the right buttons with star players.

Bud is a dope.  He’s had plenty of time to prove what he can do and it aint much.  A halfway decent coach would have won a title with this team in 2019.   The 2020 team just imploded in the bubble.  It’s not his fault Giannis got hurt but they should have been up 3-1 or swept these fuckers in the first place.  

As for the team, I think it depends on what happens to his knee. If it’s ACL, the Bucks are basically done for next season and can’t be considered a real threat to do anything so they may want to overhaul the roster meaning everything is on the table but I’d start with Middleton and Lopez.   I think Holiday is worth keeping due to his versatility.  I also believe Nwora has a chance to be a poor mans Middleton but they need to find out.

Given trade rumors or player movement rumors in the offseason - ie Simmons, McCollum, Kahwi, Donovan Mitchell, etc there could be options.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

Nick Nurse was screaming at Siakam about 3 months ago and won a title really because he had Kawhi Leonard and FVV went nuclear.

It wasn’t just those guys- he is the coach that developed “The Wall” concept to force the Buvks out to score. He also knew to go to the hot hand and to make lineup changes when the Bucks were torching them with Lopez and Ilyasova in games 1 and 2.

The Bucks lost that series because they couldn’t score, not because they couldn’t defend Leonard and Van Vleet. The Bucks are losing now because they can’t score. That’s because they’re playing iso heavy like they’re the Nets without the talent. And they also are slow to remove Lopez when they’re getting torched defensively. They also came out flat.

That’s all on the coach. His job is to make those adjustments, redirect the team when things aren’t working, and to have his team mentally prepared.

Just for shits and giggles

Bucks send Middleton and Lopez to Golden State for Wiggins, Wiseman, Looney and the 7th overall pick.

Golden State gets another shooter/scorer and improved defender in Middleton and a rim protector in Lopez.  Pair them with Steph and Klay and Green and that’s a pretty solid starting 5.  

For the Bucks, they immediately get younger and the draft pick gives them a chance to reload even more.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

We will know whether they need an overhaul when the MRI results come out today. If it's an ACL, it's very likely Giannis has to sit out a large portion or all of next season as well. If that's the case, do you try to reload for two years from now? They aren't winning anything without him, so do you try to move Lopez (or even Middleton) to get an infusion of young talent. If Giannis isn't going to have a chance to really be back to normal until the 2022-23 season, Middleton will be 32 and Holiday will be 33 the summer following that season. PJ Tucker will be 38 and Lopez will be 35. That's obviously not a recipe for a title run.

The best case (unfortunately less likely) scenario is that Giannis "just" has some capsular damage or another non-surgical injury and he's done for the rest of the playoffs. This season is then basically over. The Bucks aren't going to fire Bud when he had them on the precipice of the finals before Giannis got hurt. They run this team back and get beat in the 2nd round of the playoffs as other teams improve or have better injury luck. The Bucks have shot their load in terms of getting talent here. I agreed with all the moves and Horst did a good job or maximizing their chances to win, but their title window probably slammed shut last night and as much as Bud drives me nuts with his schemes sometimes, the window closing has nothing to do with Bud.

I think they will move on from Bud.  Especially if they can land someone like Carlisle.  Bud turned these guys around but he can't take them to the next level IMO.

Well, they didn’t extend Bud’s contract for a reason.  No way he goes into next season as a lame duck coach.  He’s gone.

Preface: I don't watch or follow the bucks regularly, I want to understand why all the hate/rip up the paper from the fans? they are always in it at the end it seems every year.  I watched the raps win a couple years ago, bucks were real good, bucks are still real good, I find it really interesting how the bucks fans will rip the team, coaches, etc but the packers are much in the same boat but get a pass...just an observation and real interesting behavior... that is all... btw, i really enjoy watching the bucks, I like Giannis a lot and I hope he is not damaged too bad...looking at them from the outside, much like the packers, be careful what you wish for, you may get it.

Simple….with movement of players and the short windows for teams most don’t get many years to win it all.  This window is not opening wider, it IMO is slowly closing.  Not closed but closing.  

With the state of this years NBA the title was there for the taking,  due to a combo platter of coaching, players not stepping up and now the uncertainty of injury it looks like wait till next year is again the rallying cry.

maybe just me, but it's 2-2.  giannis may be the rally these guys need...i am not out on the bucks this year...it's still there for the taking

@pkr_north posted:

Preface: I don't watch or follow the bucks regularly, I want to understand why all the hate/rip up the paper from the fans? they are always in it at the end it seems every year.  I watched the raps win a couple years ago, bucks were real good, bucks are still real good, I find it really interesting how the bucks fans will rip the team, coaches, etc but the packers are much in the same boat but get a pass...just an observation and real interesting behavior... that is all... btw, i really enjoy watching the bucks, I like Giannis a lot and I hope he is not damaged too bad...looking at them from the outside, much like the packers, be careful what you wish for, you may get it.

Bud is very similar to Mike McCarthy and Bo Ryan. They are good at setting up an overall system and organization. They value consistency, staying the course, not overreacting, and long-term continuity. They are great at making your team competitive for the long-term. Their strength is also their weakness. They are so committed to staying consistent with their principles that they don't adjust well in the short-term. The mantra is basically "we do what we do and we will continue to do it well." Spoelstra looked like a genius last year in the bubble, but his Heat team quit on him this year. If you just looked at this year's performance and didn't know his background, he'd be on the hot seat. He makes a lot of adjustments on the fly and that opens up a higher ceiling but also a lower floor.

I agree on the be careful what you wish for part (even though I am as critical of Bud as anyone in terms of his drop strategy with Lopez on defense). Bud is from the Popovich tree. Popovich is very much a process guy; develop a system and stick with it. He won his third title in 5 years in 2007 and then went 10 years with only one title despite having multiple future HOFers (Duncan in his prime, Ginobili, Parker, young Kawhi). He wasn't exactly known for his brilliant in-game adjustments either.

I’m sure the Lakers and Nets thought it was there for the taking.  They were the favorites most of the season.

It could still be there for Milwaukee for all we know.  Maybe this team channels their disappointment and frustration and gets over on Atlanta and their opponent from the Western Conference to win a title.  That would be a remarkable achievement.

But it’s not realistic either.  What have guys like Middleton and Holiday done to indicate they can step up?   Can Portis and Lopez do the same?   Can Tucker be a 10-15 point guy?   It’s a lot to ask.

Spoelstra didn’t decide to let Jae Crowder go.  Or trade Kelly Olynyk for Oladipo.  That was a much different team than the one that lost to the Lakers in the bubble.

No different than Brad Stevens in Boston.  He didn’t ask for Kyrie, nor did he probably want Kemba Walker.  Danny Ainge gets a free pass for being an overrated and overhyped GM.  In retrospect, he made some terrible moves.   I’d hire Brad Stevens tomorrow if he was available.

@pkr_north posted:

maybe just me, but it's 2-2.  giannis may be the rally these guys need...i am not out on the bucks this year...it's still there for the taking

Losing Middleton would be a huge blow, but you could try to scheme around that and have a shot to win a title.

The Bucks entire offensive and defensive systems are built around Giannis. He might be the top help defender in NBA history. Even last night when they were playing like shit, they were still within 8-10 points and the game had the feel of one that the more talented team (easily the Bucks) were going to take control of in the 4th quarter. Giannis had been terrible in the first half, but he was starting to take over in the second, scoring 8 points in 5 minutes. When Giannis went down, the Bucks had the look of a team that thought it was over and every player on the Hawks immediately thought they were now going to win the series.

The rah-rah stuff is what they have to go with now, but if he's done for the year they aren't going to win a title. Maybe they'll steal a game or even get by the Hawks (who are down their best two players), but the Suns or Clippers will blow them out.

The Packers lost Bakh and that was a huge blow, but you could try to scheme around that and still be competitive. This is more like losing Aaron Rodgers.  It's actually worse than that, because the Bucks don't have a top draft pick (a J. Love equivalent) that at least has the physical tools to come in and do at least a portion of what Giannis can do. They have to replace his minutes by playing a G-league level player and are now forced to play Lopez even more since he is their only semblance of paint defense now.

@pkr_north posted:

maybe just me, but it's 2-2.  giannis may be the rally these guys need...i am not out on the bucks this year...it's still there for the taking

Bucks fans are conditioned to jump ship. The franchise is at fault of course, as they were a joke for the better part of 30 years.

But this “hot take” shit does get old. Everyone overreacts at a loss, declares doom and gloom… just a product of years of disappointment I guess.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

The rah-rah stuff is what they have to go with now, but if he's done for the year they aren't going to win a title. Maybe they'll steal a game or even get by the Hawks (who are down their best two players), but the Suns or Clippers will blow them out.

I want to see them fight. They’re up against it now. If they crumble, then yeah- make some moves and get some heart on this team. They cannot crumble- or they weren’t good enough. Fight for the thing… that’s all I personally care about now.

It’s a best of 3 series.

I’m not expecting them to win or advance, but just be competitive and not mail it in like we’ve seen before.  No one would fault them given Giannis injury and Bud’s continual bullshit.

@Music City posted:

Bucks fans are conditioned to jump ship. The franchise is at fault of course, as they were a joke for the better part of 30 years.

But this “hot take” shit does get old. Everyone overreacts at a loss, declares doom and gloom… just a product of years of disappointment I guess.

This is different than just a gut-wrenching loss to end a series. Like a lot of others, I say hyperbolic things during game threads, but I think I'm pretty level-headed as a fan outside of that.

However, it's not hyperbolic to say that this (the result of the MRI today) is a franchise-altering moment with ramifications for multiple years. If it's not severe, you will be a title contender next year.  If it's an ACL tear, Giannis is most likely gone for all of next year, so your long-term plan has to be for how you are going to be most competitive when he comes back for the 2022-23 season. You are locked into this core right now and there doesn't seem to be anyone else on the bench right now that seems poised to take a leap as a contributor. You have no incentive to fully tank because the Bucks either don't have any picks or have pick swaps attached to the ones they've retained for most of the decade. You have to think about how to add some young talent to help you out in two years. Do you do that by moving Middleton or Holiday to a desperate title contender that may overpay (sort of like we did with Holiday) instead of having them play for you to max out as a #6 seed and first-round playoff loss? Maybe you get some pieces back that can you develop over the next two years for a playoff run in 2022-23.

The biggest elephant in the room is that Giannis is a player that relies on two things. He has an incredible work ethic and may be the most athletic 7-footer I've ever seen. I have no doubt that he'll work his ass off in rehab. That's a given. However, if he loses some of his lateral movement when he comes back he could very quickly turn into just a good player instead of an all-timer. This isn't like Kevin Durant or Klay Thompson who even if they can't move as well as they could previously still have tremendous value as shooters. Giannis can't score outside of 5 feet and relies on euro-steps and lateral movement on drives more than any player in the NBA. The danger is that he becomes a 250 million dollar Clint Capela. He'll still be a valuable piece, but not a top 5 guy.

If it’s an ACL I think you have to consider the nuclear option which means blowing things up.  There would be no good business reason to keep this group intact if Giannis won’t play next year, and as assembled they really won’t be a real contender anyway.

I would think Middleton and Holiday and even Lopez would have value to certain teams that could return young players and/or picks.  

@Tschmack posted:

If it’s an ACL I think you have to consider the nuclear option which means blowing things up.  There would be no good business reason to keep this group intact if Giannis won’t play next year, and as assembled they really won’t be a real contender anyway.

I would think Middleton and Holiday and even Lopez would have value to certain teams that could return young players and/or picks.  

I think the Bucks actually got their 2022 first-round pick back in the PJ Tucker swap. If it's an ACL, it actually gives them even more incentive to blow things up next year.

Given everything it took to get them to this point it would be a crushing blow to see Giannis miss next year because for all intents and purposes they aren’t winning a title without him.  I’m not sure they get out of the first round without him.

Maybe this is what Giannis needs to make him a more well-rounded player by adding a mid-range jumper or even a three-pointer to his game. He's relied so heavily on his athleticism and short game that he's become predictable, even if he's almost unstoppable at it. It would be good to see him develop more of his game.

@Fandame posted:

Maybe this is what Giannis needs to make him a more well-rounded player by adding a mid-range jumper or even a three-pointer to his game. He's relied so heavily on his athleticism and short game that he's become predictable, even if he's almost unstoppable at it. It would be good to see him develop more of his game.

My guess is that it's not for lack of work or practice that he has not developed a mid-range game. Some guys are natural shooters and some guys aren't.

The most likely thing for him to develop is a go-to post-move. Not rely a 12-foot fadeaway, something like a jump hook would be ideal.

Of course, fixing his ridiculous FT routine would be even better. Right now, it's basically become a way to rile up the home crowd and get them even more into the game.

Breaking! Gianiss MRI is clean! NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE!

Disaster averted

Kid’s got alligator blood

So now the question is ….how soon is he back? Is it a matter of playing through pain ?

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

If he plays another game this season, he's truly a freak of nature. There is no way they clear him to play.

I've seen Giannis jump over guys, chase down future HOFers (Tatum) from half court to block shots at the rim, and take off from the FT for dunks. Even with all that, the fact that he didn't suffer significant knee damage from this is the most unbelievable thing about him I've ever seen. If an average person (heck, even an average athlete) absorbed he amount of force to cause your leg to bend like that, it would either snap in half or tear a number of ligaments. I'm a biomedical researcher working on bone biology. I interact with orthopedic surgeons a lot and publish on things related to this. I am dumbfounded right now. Happy as a fan, but completely shocked.

@Goalline posted:

This series is over. This team doesn’t have the heart and Bud doesn’t have the brain.

Two questions.

1. What the hell does this have to do with Davante Adams?

2. Was the amputation successful? I've had trouble getting to twitter today.

It’s entirely possible he just has better genetics and got lucky.

I can’t tell you how many ankle and quad and calf and knee and Achilles injuries I’ve either had or seen playing pick up basketball.  I think age has a lot to do with it.  You get over 30+ and your odds of getting hurt increase significantly.   Dude is 26 and in excellent shape.

To me, the most interesting development is if the Bucks somehow get past Atlanta would he find a way to play?   As long as he can’t make the injury any worse we’ll have to see.

I have to believe this can only help but motivate the team to show up these next games to try and win this damn thing.   Given the shitty luck with this team (see Bogut and Parker and Redd injuries) it’s nice to get some good news for a change.  It would be really cool storybook ending to somehow, someway win a title given these circumstances.

He’s the Greek Freak… what else can you say?

Rub some dirt on it.

It would seem to defy logic but I’m going to daydream a bit.  

The Bucks need to win 2 of 3 to advance.  Most likely without Giannis, but they have home court.

Middleton in particular plays a lot better at home.   I can’t imagine Holiday playing any worse and if he has any pride he will show up Thursday.   Backups and role players usually play better at home as well.   So, the point is I think Middleton is capable of having a huge game and if Portis starts that gives them a little different dimension.  They probably won’t rebound as well, but you have to honor Portis from the outside so we’ll see what happens.  Obviously game 5 is huge.  Bucks win and they only need 1 of 2 to close it out.  They lose at home it’s going to be tough to win in ATL.

December 3, 1995

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

My guess is that it's not for lack of work or practice that he has not developed a mid-range game. Some guys are natural shooters and some guys aren't.

But he HAS developed his midrange game. The hyperbole apparently is not just for the game thread.

Each year he’s adding a piece to his game, except this year (with the shortened off-season). The progression is slow, but steady. And it does not matter what he “adds in practice” because the game is where you get the comfort zone. Ben Simmons makes them in practice. You gotta get over the hump mentally, and the only way to do that is to go out there and do it. Durant shot 43% from 2 his first season- now he’s over 60%. A decade in the league does that, and he came in a shooter. Giannis’ starting point was much further behind…