Final 53 Projection

One of the best  things at X4 is when SSCHUMER does his annual roster predictions. Awesome job as always.

I like the idea of keeping FS Brice - he brings some speed and some pop to the secondary

As far as the 4 DL goes, GB starts the season in the sauna of Jville and follows it up with a game vs the Peterson's. I think they might keep another big body there to eat some early season snaps until Pennel returns

Still living large as a Packer HOF member ?

Cheers

That's a pretty good 53. Just a couple of points:

1.) If Hundley doesn't re-injure his ankle, QB is on point. However, MM said he'll be hard pressed to do anything this week which makes me wonder if he'd even be ready to go by week 1. Hopefully yes, but if not, TT will have to go with 3 QB's. WSSP yesterday even speculated that GB would talk to Matt Hasselbeck to see if he'd be interested in holding the clipboard if Hundley can't go in week 1. I like the story of Callahan, but this is not someone who is even close to being a #2 QB in the NFL.

2.) Bradford is making some pretty good strides and it really could come down to him vs Thomas. If placed on the PS, with teams like the Bills really hurting for LB's, I do wonder if he'd last on the PS. And considering he was a 4th round pick, TT is likely not ready to let him dangle out there for another team to scoop up.

sschumer posted:

Guys, that time of year again! After two pre-season games, here's my current projection. Welcome, as always, your thoughts. Of course, what certain players do the last couple of pre-season games, and any new injuries, will alter the projection. FYI, current roster of 90 must be cut to 75 by 4 PM ET 8/30 and to 53 by 4 PM ET 9/3. An additional 10 players can make up the Practice Squad (PS). Players 30 years or older have their age listed in parenthesis. Also in parenthesis are whether a player is a rookie draft pick (e.g. D5), or a College Free Agent (CFA) or veteran Free Agent pickup (FA).　

OFFENSE　

QB (2): Rodgers (32), Hundley　

PS: Williams (CFA)　

Cut: Callahan (CFA)　

Comments: Rodgers says he's in best shape ever. Writers say he may be having his best camp ever. Let's play ball! Player I most wanted to see this pre-season was Hundley. Ironically, he will end up missing almost all of it due to his ankle. But most important he be healthy to back up Rodgers when the regular season starts. Not sure either Callahan or Williams, both CFAs, have enough inherent talent to warrant developing on the PS. Giving slight nod to Williams, but hoping Thompson can find better. 　

RB (4): HB's Lacy, Starks (30), Crockett, FB Ripkowski　

PS: HB Burks (CFA)　

Cut: HB Ross (CFA), FB Squirewell (CFA)　

Comments: Lacy does look better after off-season reconditioning. Starks an excellent backup. Crockett gets slight nod over CFA Burks, but Burks has shown enough to make PS. Will miss Kuhn, hoping Ripkowski ready to step up. If Ripkowski goes down, no FB on PS, but guessing Squirewell will be out there and available if needed. 　

WR (7): Nelson (30), Cobb, Adams, Montgomery, Abbrederis, Davis (D5), Janis　

PS: Allison (CFA)　

Cut: Waters (CFA), Williams, Johnson, Binford (CFA)　

Comments: Everyone excited about getting Nelson back, keeping fingers crossed he stays healthy and regains his 2014 form. If so, Cobb will be so much better than last year. Adams has quietly been showing improvement in pre-season and camp. Hoping his lingering bad ankle last year was rot cause of his poor play. Easy to forget how great Montgomery looked as a rookie last year before being lost for the season. Excellent additional weapon to have at WR and in the backfield. Abbrederis staying healthy, continually being pointed out by McCarthy. Rookie 5th round pick Davis has speed that can't be taught. Will be nice to throw in there once in a while. Janis' broken hand may allow him back by third regular season game or so. He was one of Packers two best Special Teams players last year, even though he apparently wasn't showing much development as a WR during camp. Packers could put him on Injured Reserve (IR) and bring him back later in season, but right now I think they'll just carry him on 53 until he's ready to go. Allison showing enough to keep on PS. 　

TE (3): Cook (FA), Rodgers, Perillo　

PS: Backman　

Cut: Henry, Pierce　

Comments: Very excited about addition of Cook. Former college WR with great size and speed. Runs better than Finley ever did. Is hungry, having been in the league seven years, never been to the playoffs. If WRs stay healthy, Cook will never be double-covered and could break out with a Pro-Bowl type season. Rodgers slimmer, playing faster, may offer more this year as a receiver than he did last. Will obviously benefit from Cook's presence. Preillo not fast, but seems to know how to get open and demonstrates incredible hands. Backman still has potential, so putting him on PS. 　

OL (9): Bakhitari, Sitton, Linsley, Lang, Bulaga, Tretter, Spriggs (D2), Murphy (D6), Taylor　

PS: Walker　

IR: Rotheram　

Cut: Barclay, Patrick (CFA), James (CFA), Flores (CFA), Steuck (CFA)　

Comments: If they stay healthy, this could easily be Packers best OL since the great one of 2003. The starting five form an excellent unit, and the depth has the potential to be our best ever. Bakhitari, Sitton, Lang all extra-motivated by contract years. Linsley just needs to get his hamstring healthy for regular season. Bulaga's injury history, along with Bakhitari's pending free agency, key reason they drafted two OTs. Spriggs looking good, Murphy surprisingly so for a 6th round pick. Convinced if they cut Murphy and try to stash him on PS some other team will pick him up. Tretter an incredible luxury to have: Young, talented, experienced, can play all five OL positions. Not a Taylor fan. Giving him the slightest of nods right now over Walker, who makes PS. Rotheram big but can't seem to play. If he wasn't hurt, would have him as a cut. Barclay a tough call. Seems to be playing better a year removed from his ACL, but tough to put him ahead of either Taylor or Walker, who are both younger and bigger.　

DEFENSE　

DL (4): Daniels, Clark (D1), Guion, Lowry (D4B)　

SUS: Pennel　

PS: Price (CFA), Ringo　

Cut: Kuder (CFA), Anderson (CFA)　

Comments: Daniels Packers best DL, may be their best defensive player. High hopes for #1 pick Clark. I think Guion underrated. A better NT than DE, but has size, nastiness and produces. Lowry should develop, may be asked to play a bigger role earlier than Packers would prefer. Bummer that big run-stuffer Pennel suspended first four games. Just need to hold the fort until he returns. May seem too light to only have 4 DL on 53, but Packers play only two DL 75% of the time and could easily call up Price or Ringo from PS if/when needed.　

OLB (7): Matthews (30), Peppers (36), Perry, Jones, Elliott, McCray (FA), Fackrell (D3)　

Cut: Gilbert (CFA)　

Comments: Like OL, this has the potential to be the best and deepest OLB corps we've ever had in a 3-4 defense. Matthews back to his preferred OLB spot. Peppers not showing signs of age, but Packers appear committed to playing him less in a designated pass rusher type role, opening the door for Perry to start and play many more meaningful snaps than ever before. He's a beast against the run. Hoping he can stay healthy, have his best year. Intrigued by move of Datone Jones to elephant position. Maybe, just maybe, like Perry, he'll begin to fully demonstrate why he was a #1 pick. Was hoping Elliott would show significant development, but it's been a quiet camp and couple of pre-season games for him so far. Free agent pickup McCray has been a pleasant surprise, especially his pass rush. Rookie Fackrell needs to get stronger, which Packers knew. Unlikely he'll contribute much this year. CFA Gilbert actually showing OK, but with 7 OLBs not sure there's room to keep on PS.　

ILB (4): Ryan, Martinez (D4A), Barrington, Thomas　

PS: Bradford　

Cut: Brown (CFA), Mathews (CFA)　

Comments: Ryan, like C Linsley, has missed camp and pre-season games with minor injury. But still counting on him to be healthy come the regular reason and a mainstay at ILB. Martinez so far living up to all the off-season hype. Doing great for a 4th round rookie. Looks like he'll help with our weakest defensive spot last couple of years -- ILB pass coverage. Barrington back and while not a great player, provides a welcomed physical presence. Was not impressed with Thomas last year at all, had him in my initial cuts. But he added 10 pounds in off-season, looks like a different player. Giving him slight nod over Bradford, who has clearly been playing much better than previous two years, but I'm not sure good enough to keep over Thomas. Would the Packers keep him on PS for another year? Brown, Mathews really haven't shown anything.　

CB (5): Shields, Randall, Rollins, Gunter, Hawkins (CFA)　

SUS: Goodson　

PS: Daniel, Dorleant (CFA)　

Cut: Jette (CFA), Gatewood (CFA)　

Comments: A real strength of the team. Youth, talent, speed. Shields has Pro-Bowl ability, in his prime. Randall, Rollins, Gunter all played incredibly well as rookies last year, should be even better this year. CFA Hawkins a pleasant surprise. May have shown enough to make 53 versus PS. Goodson's 4 game suspension also opens that door. Daniel, Dorleant both appear to have good potential, hoping both make it to PS. 　

S (5): Clinton-Dix, Burnett, Hyde, Banjo, Brice (CFA)　

Cut: Evans (CFA), Whitehead (CFA)　

Comments: Just as strong a unit as our CBs. DB unit as a whole best in many years. Clinton-Dix and Burnett a formidable duo. Hyde a valuable player. Banjo Packers best ST player, but also seems to have developed into a decent S. Not big, but fast and a good hitter. Brice might be best CFA. Incredible physical traits, has also stood out in both pre-season games. Already has shown enough to make too risky to put on PS. 　

SPECIAL TEAMS
　

PK (1): Crosby (31)　

Comments: No competition, but kicking as well as ever. Still not confident with him with the game on the line, but he's very good if not great.　

P (1): Masthay　

Cut: Mortell (CFA)　

Comments: Masthay not having a great camp/pre-season, and CFA Mortell exceeding modest expectations. But Masthay likely still has lead. 　

LS (1): Lovato　

Comments: Lovato apparently not impressing Packers, who may resign reliable veteran Goode as soon as Goode fully recovered from last year's injury.

 

Disagree.

http://content.packersnews.com...11F102F105F84F115F93

In the real world, I'd keep a 3rd guard until Pennel's suspension is up.

I'd keep Callahan on the PS over Williams. Callahan throws better and is elusive. Not as strong of runner as Williams but throws much better. 

Not counting out Mortell yet either.  

Need an emergency back-up QB ? Matt Flynn is only 31, Hasselbeck is 40

46

Can't say I disagree with any of it other than as Satori pointed out, only dressing 4 d-lineman is a risk. Jacksonville opening day, 95 degrees, one of the 4 gets hurt on the opening series, you get into a tight ball control game with the Jags trying to run the ball in the 4th quarter. 

SATORI, really nice of you to say.  And yes, STILL cannot believe this NJ-based guy is in the Packers Fan Hall of Fame.  They must've miscounted!  LOL  Excellent point on the DL.  I should have added that Packers can play Datone Jones there, but agree, they may be conservative and go with 5.  RUSTY, you are too funny.

I'd go with one less DB, trying to stash Hawkins or Brice on PS, to start the season.  That spot needs to go to Ringo or a big body that TT picks up after rosters get trimmed. 

ammo posted:

I'd keep Callahan on the PS over Williams. Callahan throws better and is elusive. Not as strong of runner as Williams but throws much better. 

Not counting out Mortell yet either.  

That's why I Favor Williams.  Can't teach that athletic ability but could possible teach him how to be a QB.   Callahan is physically limited.  

Last couple of guys will come down to ability to play STs

packerboi posted:

That's a pretty good 53. Just a couple of points:

1.) If Hundley doesn't re-injure his ankle, QB is on point. However, MM said he'll be hard pressed to do anything this week which makes me wonder if he'd even be ready to go by week 1. Hopefully yes, but if not, TT will have to go with 3 QB's. WSSP yesterday even speculated that GB would talk to Matt Hasselbeck to see if he'd be interested in holding the clipboard if Hundley can't go in week 1. I like the story of Callahan, but this is not someone who is even close to being a #2 QB in the NFL.

2.) Bradford is making some pretty good strides and it really could come down to him vs Thomas. If placed on the PS, with teams like the Bills really hurting for LB's, I do wonder if he'd last on the PS. And considering he was a 4th round pick, TT is likely not ready to let him dangle out there for another team to scoop up.

Bradford looks much better than he did, but that's still not better than Thomas.

Hundley and 12 are the only two QB's on the 53.  If 12 goes down and H can't play, you run the veer with Cobb under center, Rip and Lacy behind him.  

JSO/Packersnews.com hires Nagler.

Meanwhile x4 has its own member writing all-world posts like this one.

Tells you where you should be clicking firstest and mostest for your Packer coverage.

Don't agree with all your choices but as Satan said, exemplary job, Steve.

Not sure Crockett stays.  Monty and Cobb may be our 3 rd back.  Big body would be nice on DL.

CUQUI, you're being too kind.  But I DO come to X4 before I go to any other Packers-related site.  You guys are the best!

And that's coming from a member of the Green Bay Packer hall of fame! Steve, you rock bro

BrainDed posted:

ammo posted:

I'd keep Callahan on the PS over Williams. Callahan throws better and is elusive. Not as strong of runner as Williams but throws much better. 

Not counting out Mortell yet either.  

That's why I Favor Williams.  Can't teach that athletic ability but could possible teach him how to be a QB.   Callahan is physically limited.  

On the D3 level how good was his physical training. I think that development will come. His arm will certainly get stronger after he has worked with the Packers' trainers for a year.

El-Ka-Bong posted:

Hundley and 12 are the only two QB's on the 53.  If 12 goes down and H can't play, you run the veer with Cobb under center, Rip and Lacy behind him.  

Or send a plane to Kiln.....

Goalline posted:

BrainDed posted:

ammo posted:

I'd keep Callahan on the PS over Williams. Callahan throws better and is elusive. Not as strong of runner as Williams but throws much better. 

Not counting out Mortell yet either.  

That's why I Favor Williams.  Can't teach that athletic ability but could possible teach him how to be a QB.   Callahan is physically limited.  

On the D3 level how good was his physical training. I think that development will come. His arm will certainly get stronger after he has worked with the Packers' trainers for a year.

+1 Matt Flynn

YOOPERFAN, thanks, but no more than you do my friend!

Good feedback from all.  I agree, QBs Callahan/Williams (Practice Squad), ILBs Bradford/Thomas, Ps Mortell/Masthay all close calls right now. 

Don't forget, the roster is a living breathing entity. It'll change even after final cut down day especially if another team cuts a player TT has his eye on.

Boris knows...

You can sort this link by year and note how many transactions take place in  September. Some injury related, but many more are just shuffling the bottom of the roster looking for a good fit. Also noted is that if a guy is on the roster week 1, his salary is guaranteed for the year. Fair amount of week 2 shuffling in the NFL for vets

http://www.packers.com/team/transactions.html

People forget guys like Abbrederis & Carl Bradford were released last year on final cut down day.

Abby was on PS until early October. 

And factor in suspended players, not talking CMIII or Peppers here,  but Pennel and Goodson, and a couple more guys will have to be cut when suspensions end if the Packers keep the suspended players. 

I have not crunched any numbers before I added this reply but, there may be a $ factor involved as well. Younger and cheaper players with some potential factor in this decision.  I expect next years problem of expired contracts to play into decisions of who to keep this year. Ted, always considers the price (cap room) as part of the equation of who to keep and who to let go.

We would do well to keep Pennell, but Goodson...I don't think we miss a beat if we let him go.
Also does the bye week factor in at all? I'll assume since it's a 4 game suspension, they won't be eligible to return until the week of Oct. 10. Is that correct?
Lastly, if we survive the rest of the pre-season without a major injury, I'm thinking it may not be a bad idea to IR-DTR Janis. Keep an extra body at a position that may need it. Thoughts?

Suspensions are games, not weeks.

Timmy! posted:

 but Goodson...I don't think we miss a beat if we let him go.

 I'm thinking it may not be a bad idea to IR-DTR Janis. Keep an extra body at a position that may need it. Thoughts?

Goodson is good on ST's but he is old (27) as far as further development at DB

His age at that stage of development doesn't bode well

On the Janis decision, IR unlikely. He will be back shortly and needs every moment of development he can get. In the DTR category, he has to miss at least 6 weeks of the season before he comes back and his injury should be healed long before that. Missing 2-3 games vs 6

I'd guess they'll just carry him on the 53 and leave the DTR for another player.

They could also waive Janis with an injury settlement.  He gets paid and still gets the chance to make another team (Vikings)  when healed. 

Squirewell will make it to PS, available if needed. I've read that his role in GB wasn't to make the squad, but rather to give the defense a chance to practice against a true pile driver- GB will face a couple of those guys during the regular season, including one that Seattle employs.

Packers have also used Raji and Daniels in the behemoth blocking role a couple of times, no need to carry one on the 53

I agree with most of that.

Maybe someone can correct me, but it doesn't seem as though Davis has really shown a lot as a receiver or returner? Not that he was going to lock down a starting spot as a WR, but like Cobb in 2011 I expected to see him do more as a returner so far. I won't be surprised to see him cut, but end up on the PS like Abby. 

Also I would expect Walker to make it over Murphy. Walker seems to improve every year and wouldn't last long on PS. Murphy was already a late round draft pick, so it's not like he's in high demand.

I think Ringo makes it in there as well. Not sure over who, but I have a hunch.

I expect Murphy and Walker to make it over Taylor at this point.

Good job to you guys who like to put all this stuff together and let me take pot shots at you.  

If you didn't hear, we peddle influence behind the scenes around here.   We're like the Henry Kissinger of Packerdom.  

I agree on Ringo. Think he makes it if only for the Pennel suspension.

Four-week tryout.

I keep hearing that Taylor is struggling while Murphy looked pretty good last game (didn't play the first).  I expect the backup OL to be Tretter, Spriggs, Taylor and Murphy.  They'l keep 9 with 4 of the them going into free agency.  

ILB is getting interesting too.  Ryan and Martinez are locks, leaving Barrington, Bradford and Thomas fighting for the last 2 spots.  I actually liked some of what Thomas showed last year in coverage, and have really liked the intensity Bradford has shown this year (haven't seen that at ILB since Bishop).  Could Barrington be the odd man out?  

As for WR, depends on a lot.  First, how bad is Janis' finger.  IR worthy?  Or only a few weeks?  Second, how healthy is Monty, really?  That ankle got worse and worse last year until he was IRed.  Then he started on PUP.  Is he still limited?  High ankle sprains requiring surgery can linger.  Third, Abbrederis has to be healthy in 3 weeks.  That has not been a lock thus far in his career.  Fourth...you get the point.  So much going on here regarding health that it's hard to make an educated guess.   If I had to guess today, I'm going with Nelson, Cobb, Monty, Adams, Abbrederis and Davis.  Sorry Janis, but the injury did you in.  

The last spot for ILBer will probably come down to ability to play STs. MM did mention that although Bradford has really "made a jump" at ILBer, he still needs to improve his ST play. For him it will likely come down to: 1) Do we keep 4 or 5 at that position 2) How healthy are Barrington & Ryan. I don't see Bradford beating out Thomas for a spot. 

I won't be surprised to see 5 ILBs kept. I think Barrington is a lock, they still don't know what they have in him since he lost all of last season. He will get a shot at starting unless he's just terrible in practice. It seems as though Joe Thomas has the inside track, there have been comments from coaches saying he's in the plans for the defense going forward. They seem really positive on Bradford also though, so it makes me think they will suck it up and keep 5, with Bradford being kept mostly as a ST ace. 

Lane Taylor vs. Murphy vs. Walker will be an interesting decision. They seem to like Lane Taylor, he must have the football IQ they want on the OL. Supposedly Walker has had a strong camp though, I thought I saw somewhere that he's undefeated in 1 on 1's, or has only lost 1 or 2? With his size and ability I would think he would get picked up quickly by another team. Murphy has more upside than either player though, so it's a hard decision. 

JMHO: Callahan and Geronimo make it. Who loses out?