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oldschool posted:
BrainDed posted:
TouchdownWhitewaterJesus posted:
R MaN posted:

Packers are 4.5 favorites 

Betting lines are used to do one thing, bring in bets.

Sure..  and the ultimate goal that bringing the bets works toward is making money for the Casino.    Therefore it behooves the casino to place a number that will draw equal action on both sides (They win regardless of outcome because they collect the juice or vig, typically 10%).     In other words, an accurate number. 

That is not really true either...the casino's in effect shade it toward placing their own bets...because they have the best numbers in the business...so they do not try to balance so much as they shade it toward house advantage long term.

They leave way way too much money on the table only taking a 50/50 vig...and this is why some lines don't make sense to Joe Six pack

This could not be more inaccurate.    The casino has no interest  in โ€œplacing their own bet.โ€      They are playing a different game.   A game called math.   

BrainDed posted:
oldschool posted:
BrainDed posted:
TouchdownWhitewaterJesus posted:
R MaN posted:

Packers are 4.5 favorites 

Betting lines are used to do one thing, bring in bets.

Sure..  and the ultimate goal that bringing the bets works toward is making money for the Casino.    Therefore it behooves the casino to place a number that will draw equal action on both sides (They win regardless of outcome because they collect the juice or vig, typically 10%).     In other words, an accurate number. 

That is not really true either...the casino's in effect shade it toward placing their own bets...because they have the best numbers in the business...so they do not try to balance so much as they shade it toward house advantage long term.

They leave way way too much money on the table only taking a 50/50 vig...and this is why some lines don't make sense to Joe Six pack

This could not be more inaccurate.    The casino has no interest  in โ€œplacing their own bet.โ€      They are playing a different game.   A game called math.   

Exactly...and math dictates when you have a house advantage with Billions of revenue....of course you use it.

Do you honestly think the Vegas books would turn their back on Billions of dollars of profit...using their long term house advantage on shading NFL lines to what they KNOW is the real number played long term?

And do you really think a Vegas book can just lay off big money imbalances to balance their books?

To whom? They are all in the same business.

If you know what goes on inside the Vegas books...you know that they do indeed place their bets too. We are talking long term house advantages of 51-55% and they don't have to pay vig!

michiganjoe posted:

Shepherd to the PS?

Or possibly Ryan Grant being cut. 
Whoever they have at returner would probably be better. I had hopes for Sheppard as a slot receiver but right now he is underperforming. After all he is an undrafted rookie.

michiganjoe posted:

Shepherd to the PS?

Why not try Josh Jackson? He's been on the active roster, might as well get some kind of use out of him. 

PackerHawk posted:
michiganjoe posted:

Shepherd to the PS?

Why not try Josh Jackson? He's been on the active roster, might as well get some kind of use out of him. 

It would not be a bad idea if he had some speed to him. He has not been used much because he is not too good in man coverage but who knows he might have some moves to him as a returner.

PackerPatrick posted:

Even with Mahomes out I read on ESPN that the Chiefs are slightly favored. Some talking heads felt that their defense would get after Rodgers.  

I have NFI where ESPN gets their info, but it isn't from Vegas if they think the Chiefs are favored - They're clearly NOT favored

https://www.sportsline.com/nfl/odds/

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

As long as the Packer O-Line continues playing well, I don't see how the Chiefs will "get after Rodgers" - Blitzing Rodgers has been a historically BAD move when he's hot.

Are us Packer fans the only ones seeing Rodgers dump the ball off to the RB's? In some cases down the field (like the TD pass to Aaron Jones) -- Hell even Jumping Jimmy Graham is playing a little better.

BrainDed posted:

Lol..  long term house advantage.   They have no interest in gambling my man.   They have an interest in creating canโ€™t lose scenarios.  

Its no different than the poker table.   They create the opportunity for others to gamble so that they can take a percentage.   Thatโ€™s it, anything else is tin foil hat territory.   

You don't get it...I understand. You are repeating oft repeated Joe Six Pack type of stuff...because somebody said it on the internet.

It's NOT gambling...the linesmakers KNOW exactly what the best number is...long term. They play it long term...probability always wins out.

No gambling...they just churn the numbers...long term...big money and the known probability churns out profits.

No gambling involved what so ever...some short term variability...sure...but long term they are playing a known advantage to maximize profit.

It's just math. I mean...why wouldn't they do it? 

Nobody has better numbers than the books.

Boris posted:
PackerPatrick posted:

Even with Mahomes out I read on ESPN that the Chiefs are slightly favored. Some talking heads felt that their defense would get after Rodgers.  

I have NFI where ESPN gets their info, but it isn't from Vegas if they think the Chiefs are favored - They're clearly NOT favored

https://www.sportsline.com/nfl/odds/

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

As long as the Packer O-Line continues playing well, I don't see how the Chiefs will "get after Rodgers" - Blitzing Rodgers has been a historically BAD move when he's hot.

Are us Packer fans the only ones seeing Rodgers dump the ball off to the RB's? In some cases down the field (like the TD pass to Aaron Jones) -- Hell even Jumping Jimmy Graham is playing a little better.

I thought it was goofy. I just read it today and wondered about it. But I donโ€™t think it will be a cakewalk either. Yet it will be a much more winnable game with Mahomes out.

PackerPatrick posted:
Boris posted:
PackerPatrick posted:

Even with Mahomes out I read on ESPN that the Chiefs are slightly favored. Some talking heads felt that their defense would get after Rodgers.  

I have NFI where ESPN gets their info, but it isn't from Vegas if they think the Chiefs are favored - They're clearly NOT favored

https://www.sportsline.com/nfl/odds/

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

As long as the Packer O-Line continues playing well, I don't see how the Chiefs will "get after Rodgers" - Blitzing Rodgers has been a historically BAD move when he's hot.

Are us Packer fans the only ones seeing Rodgers dump the ball off to the RB's? In some cases down the field (like the TD pass to Aaron Jones) -- Hell even Jumping Jimmy Graham is playing a little better.

I thought it was goofy. I just read it today and wondered about it. But I donโ€™t think it will be a cakewalk either. Yet it will be a much more winnable game with Mahomes out.

It was OFF (no line) because of the Mahomes ambiguity.  It's at Packers-5 now.

I ain't touching that.  No Mahomes helps but on the road, Reid, Arrowhead, National t.v., night game.....I don't like any of it.   This is going to be tough, especially since all the players are hearing is it won't be.  Not good.

Anybody want to reminisce about the last time the packers visited Arrowhead?  I seem to recall 13-0 and the same โ€œthis will be easyโ€ attitude Iโ€™m seeing this week.  And whenโ€™s the last time Rodgers beat Andy Reid?  People are getting way to cocky about a team with the 26th ranked defense and no real significant victories.  I donโ€™t care if Mahomes is playing or not, this is going to be a dogfight.

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