Latest Update on 2020-21 Season

I can only speak of my experience in the line of work I do for a living.   I’ve done numerous contract negotiations.  All different but the universal thread is leverage.  How much can you extract to achieve your objectives?

This isn’t much different.  Giannis has leverage because he’s a star player and the Bucks gave up a ton of future draft capital in an attempt to placate him to stay.  The Bucks have leverage because he’s still under contract and they control his rights with multiple teams (alleged) to have interest.

As I see it, there’s only 3 options:

1) trade him

2) extend him

3) let him walk

Right now, the Bucks hold the cards.  Why?  They control where he goes via trade.  At least for this season. As time goes on, they lose leverage because the closer he gets to free agency the less teams will be willing to give up to get him.

I don’t care about being sentimental or loyal at this point because the bottom line is this - if Giannis or his agent do not find a way to keep him in Milwaukee past 2020/2021 I officially put them on notice he’s gone well before he ever hits free agency.  And the Bucks, not his agent or Giannis, will control where he ends up.

Teams will be lining up (even as a rental) to deal for him.  But for the Bucks, they know that really there are only a few teams that can make it happen and honestly it’s Miami.  Why?  They have players that can balance it out. Namely Herro and Bam and picks.  No other team can really make that work.

So it gets us back to what could happen next.  There is no way the Bucks can take him at his his word and have Giannis pull a “I’m taking my talents to South Beach” and get nothing back.  If I’m Milwaukee and Horst and Lasry I make that point clear. Like today.   If a deal can’t be reached by Dec 21 he’s gone.  They cannot play out this season in flux.  Cannot happen.  If it does, they need to fire everyone in the front office and contract the franchise.

The one thing Giannis has going for him is he’s not a hired gun.  Or at least that’s not how he’s managed his reputation.  But if he jerks the Bucks around all bets are off.  As bad as things ended in OKC with that passive aggressive chicken shit Durant the fans will react 10x as bad to Giannis.  I want to be here.  Blah blah blah.  Talk is cheap.  Actions matter more. If you want to be in Milwaukee Giannis then re up and get it done.  Otherwise STFU.

I am still holding out hope they are buying time due to some other proposal non Supermax related.  But it is the NBA  and as players they have created some monsters.  But not all is lost.  It’s just a matter of timing.  But Milwaukee must move quickly once they sense he’s not in for the long haul.  Any other path would be damaging to the short and long term health of the franchise.

Do we know that Miami would make that trade?

@Tschmack posted:

Right now, the Bucks hold the cards.  Why?  They control where he goes via trade.  At least for this season. As time goes on, they lose leverage because the closer he gets to free agency the less teams will be willing to give up to get him.

I don’t care about being sentimental or loyal at this point because the bottom line is this - if Giannis or his agent do not find a way to keep him in Milwaukee past 2020/2021 I officially put them on notice he’s gone well before he ever hits free agency.  And the Bucks, not his agent or Giannis, will control where he ends up.

Teams will be lining up (even as a rental) to deal for him.  But for the Bucks, they know that really there are only a few teams that can make it happen and honestly it’s Miami.  Why?  They have players that can balance it out. Namely Herro and Bam and picks.  No other team can really make that work.

So it gets us back to what could happen next.  There is no way the Bucks can take him at his his word and have Giannis pull a “I’m taking my talents to South Beach” and get nothing back.  If I’m Milwaukee and Horst and Lasry I make that point clear. Like today.   If a deal can’t be reached by Dec 21 he’s gone.  They cannot play out this season in flux.  Cannot happen.  If it does, they need to fire everyone in the front office and contract the franchise.

The one thing Giannis has going for him is he’s not a hired gun.  Or at least that’s not how he’s managed his reputation.  But if he jerks the Bucks around all bets are off.  As bad as things ended in OKC with that passive aggressive chicken shit Durant the fans will react 10x as bad to Giannis.  I want to be here.  Blah blah blah.  Talk is cheap.  Actions matter more. If you want to be in Milwaukee Giannis then re up and get it done.  Otherwise STFU.

I agree they have to move him if he refuses to extend at least another year. It's very possible he and his agent have some under the table deal somewhere else and he wants the Bucks to be the "bad guy" and trade him. Then he can try to claim that he didn't really want to leave but just wanted to see how the new roster came together, but the Bucks never gave him a chance to see how it would work.

They have to get more than picks back.

As you say, I think Miami is a possibility for the Adebayo/Herro package. There's been a lot of smoke about that over the last few months.

I think the Raptors may be just as likely. You could at least get Siakam back along with a guy like Anunoby and some picks.

Who else? Maybe the Mavs? But you get Porzingis and what else?

The other move is to trade him even up for my least favorite player in the league, James Harden. Harden is under contract for 2 more years and you can at least move him to another team this upcoming offseason for quite a bit.

You can't let him play out the year and walk for nothing (or some crap that the Heat offer you that you have to take). Even if they decide to roll with that, it's going to make the whole year an ordeal and, as you've said, Giannis doesn't exactly thrive in pressure situations.

If Giannis gets traded, it costs him $80M. I don’t think his camp is going to even consider that.

@Music City posted:

If Giannis gets traded, it costs him $80M. I don’t think his camp is going to even consider that.

So why get cute with all the cliches in the press conference? If he doesn't sign they have to trade him. I guess you remain more confident that he's eventually going to sign something. I guess it could just be the 2+1 or 1+1 instead of the SuperMax.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

So why get cute with all the cliches in the press conference? If he doesn't sign they have to trade him. I guess you remain more confident that he's eventually going to sign something. I guess it could just be the 2+1 or 1+1 instead of the SuperMax.

It’s a good question. I prefer to think that it is a collective plan, that they are doing this for a reason. If there’s one thing we know about Giannis, he’s very deliberate. Calculated, measured steps. He’s not impulsive- not anymore. This is the same guy that turned down Nike, knowing if he became a superstar he’s get a lot more. And that’s exactly what happened.

Maybe it’s as simple as he doesn’t know his new teammates. Maybe he wants to play out the season to know for sure. I think folks are forgetting- they will have 4 new guys playing big minutes this season. DiVincenzo is being thrust into a prominent role and will to need to get a lot better to justify a longer term investment. There’s a lot to learn about this Bucks team. If they’re rolling 18-2 by the end of January, he might know. We won’t, but he might.

I get it and that all makes sense but this is the most important decision in franchise history since they dealt Kareem.  

I don’t know nor do I expect Giannis to understand that but he’s put the team in a tough spot.   They traded away their future to get Holiday and added some nice pieces around him.   Yes they have to go out and perform but so does he.

I think he’s underestimating what an absolute circus it will become if he adopts the wait and see approach.  The pressure will be enormous and there are already enough question marks about the mental toughness of this team and Giannis specifically.

If the goal is not to box yourself in (Giannis) then you instruct your agent to structure the extension in a way that leaves an exit clause if things go south or if he has a change of heart. It ain’t that complicated.  But to not get something done by December 21 is unacceptable and you leave the Bucks no choice but to trade you.  And if they don’t and roll the dice to see if he stays?   Then they need to blow up the front office and start over.

This whole situation is jacked up and honestly it doesn’t have to be.  People say he’s calculated and thoughtful but he could go from being respected and revered to being the goat in a hurry if he strings along the Bucks past December 21. Things could get ugly and when it goes bad  it could go really bad.

@Music City posted:

If Giannis gets traded, it costs him $80M. I don’t think his camp is going to even consider that.

80 million is obviously a gigantic amount of money, but the agent probably figures they can make up close to that amount by doing some of the shorter extensions over time if he goes somewhere else.

The other consideration is how much more his endorsement income will go up if he leaves. From what I can find, Giannis right now "only" makes about 20 million a year in endorsements. Guys like LeBron, Curry, and Durant are all over 40 million a year in off-court income. Maybe they know that if Giannis is in a different market his numbers go up to approach or exceed those.

We all have talked about how Giannis was "wired differently" and didn't grow up playing AAU and getting money under the table from agents as a high schooler. I guess we are about to find out if all that started out genuine and then turned into an act managed by a PR firm (like Tiger Woods).  I'm not saying Giannis is out there gambling and womanizing like Tiger, but now that he's seen how the NBA process and the media reward guys (at least in terms of legacy) who constantly change teams looking for the best short-term situation every few years (LeBron, Durant, A. Davis, Kawhi), maybe he's become more calculating and cynical. If Kawhi stays in San Antonio like Duncan did and wins another title at some point, he probably still doesn't become as famous as he did by leaving two different teams he won titles with.

It’s the ability and freedom to move.  That’s what players want.   MP2 hit the nail on the head. Players can make up the dollars but if you get stuck with a bad team or a team that doesn’t have your interests in mind they want to be able to pull the rip cord and bail on their terms.  

Look at Houston.  Ownership basically blew up and gutted that team.  If you are Harden with 2 years left obviously you want the chance to join a contender because that’s no longer the Rockets.  At least not in the near future.  I don’t agree with how he’s handling things but I completely understand why he’s bent.  

But I don’t see that with the Bucks.  Perhaps Giannis feels differently.  Maybe he’s mad they didn’t extend Brogdon, although, that was the right move IMO.  It’s possible he’s ticked about Bogdanovic, but it’s hard to be upset when they added Holiday.  From all accounts he wanted them to retain Middleton which they did for big money.  

Which brings me back to my first point.  If he’s as savvy and calculated as he may appear the solution is easy.  Structure a 2+1 deal (or something similar) that helps the team and the player.  I really don’t think the Bucks would balk at it, but you never know.  I get that 5 years is a long time and a lot can change but if you truly believe what you say - and that is Giannis loves Milwaukee - then get this done already so you and your teammates can focus on winning a title.  It’s all there in front of them.  But you let this drag on and honestly all bets are off.  It would really be a swift kick in the nuts given the addition of Holiday.

If he leaves, I become indifferent to the league in a hurry. Unless they trade for a king’s ransom.

Harden now has made it publicly known he'd accept a trade to the Bucks (along with the Sixers, Heat, and Nets). Maybe it's all postering like AD supposedly saying he'd go to Bucks as well (to get around tampering), but it's still interesting.

I hate watching Harden, but if Giannis says he wants him and will sign the supermax do you even consider it? The only trades that work would involve sending Middleton there.

Harden for Middleton, DDV, and DJ Wilson works

I think this is all a pipe dream. I may also be in the minority, but I'd rather lose a well-played series in the conference finals with Middleton and Giannis than win a title with Harden and Giannis. Although I won't deny that Harden would take care of the question of who gets the ball in a close playoff game in the 4th quarter. He would dribble 30 times at the 3 point line every possession and launch step-back 3s, but that's still better than Giannis shooting a 15-foot jumper.

Just a snowball's chance in hell of this happening is probably causing the Milwaukee night clubs to get really excited.

New to the Deer District !!!

Gotta believe Houston would want one of :

MKE : Middleton

Nets : KD or Kyrie

Miami: Butler

Philly : Simmons

Probably just playing the game to get to Brooklyn.

@tsr86free posted:

If he leaves, I become indifferent to the league in a hurry. Unless they trade for a king’s ransom.

As Tschmack said, really only Miami has the assets to get anything of value back.

Right now, this works (according to the ESPN Trade Machine).

Giannis for Adebayo, Herro, and Iguodala (plus some picks)

Adebayo, Middleton, Lopez, Herro, Holiday, DDV, Forbes, Augustin, Iguodala, and Portis would actually be an exciting lineup to watch. Iguodala would be the equivalent of an Assistant Coach.

If you really wanted to play chess, you could then try to flip Middleton and DDV for Harden and have

Adebayo, Harden, Lopez, Herro, Holiday, Forbes, Iguodala, and Portis might be favored over the Lakers.

If you get over the emotional attachment to Giannis, there are probably better ways to build a title contender than keeping him. Adebayo is probably 95% of what Giannis on defense, probably 75% of Giannis in the half-court offense, and about 10% of Giannis in transition. But the latter is minimized as you progress through the playoffs. Getting Adebayo and other good contributors makes for a much better offensive half-court lineup than Giannis.

Herro, Bam, and possibly a couple of picks are about the most you could get back in return.  Still, you have Middleton and Holiday and Lopez and that’s still a decent starting group.  In fact, it’s still top 3 in the East and probably top 5 overall in the league.  The other nice thing is Herro and Bam are young guys that have upside.  Yes, Giannis is a unicorn but it’s possible this is as good as he will ever get.  

The Harden speculation is certainly intriguing.  I would think Houston would need to get back more than just Middleton but let’s say you throw in DDV?  It would be hard to walk away from that.  They’d lose Middleton’s D but a Big 3 of him, Giannis, and Holiday would be a lot of fun to watch.  

I was just listing the primary pieces...obviously would want more than just Middleton. Wild speculation at this point. As a Bucks fan it's rare to be mentioned to be on a players "list". Yay 

MLB can have the hot stove but there’s nothing quite like NBA trade speculation.  

It does say something that a guy like Harden would include the Bucks on his list.   Especially considering the back and forth with Giannis which is pretty entertaining.  

Now Paul George signs a supermax contract - 5 years, 223 million.

Of course, as soon as he does this, there is speculation from some reporters that he could be flipped for Giannis.

So this lineup:

Holiday

Herro

Middleton

Adebayo

Lopez

Or this lineup:

Holiday

Herro

Harden

Adebayo

Lopez

Is better than this lineup:

Holiday

DiVincenzo

Middleton

Giannis

Lopez

If you add in picks in the Giannis deal does that tip that lineup over the edge?

I like Bam and Herro.  A lot.  Bam is sort of like Holiday.  Very underrated.  Herro can just flat out shoot.  He could become a younger version of Steph Curry.  But Bam is a poor mans Giannis.   Losing Giannis and getting Bam and Herro and a couple of picks would be a good recovery.

That being said, I’m very intrigued on the Harden banter.  Yes he annoys the piss out me.  But he’s an alpha dog.  And when he gets going there might not be a more dangerous offensive threat in the game other than Curry.   To that extent, teaming him up with Giannis would be fascinating.  And they’d still have Holiday, likely Lopez, and some good bench players in the mix.  

You get a trio of Giannis, Harden, and Holiday and what team in the NBA can match up with that?  

Look, I like Middleton.  He’s sort of grown on me.  And I’m very bullish on DDV.  But if you could flip those two for 2 years of James Harden with this group?   No way they aren’t favored to win it all.  

I mean, someone will be open.  Lopez could average 20PPG.  Forbes or Augustin could come in simply as a 3pt specialist and with Harden out there and Giannis pulling defenders down low they could have huge years.  So could Middleton this year BTW.  But is anyone truly scared of Middleton?  Probably not.  Harden is scary good when he gets rolling.  

It also opens the door to a 2+1 deal for Giannis.  Holiday likely opts in for next season so you’d have a 2 year run.   Barring injuries the Bucks would be be favorite and if the experiment doesn’t work this year you could flip Harden for assets.

@Music City posted:

So this lineup:

Holiday

Herro

Middleton

Adebayo

Lopez

Or this lineup:

Holiday

Herro

Harden

Adebayo

Lopez

Is better than this lineup:

Holiday

DiVincenzo

Middleton

Giannis

Lopez

If you add in picks in the Giannis deal does that tip that lineup over the edge?

If you rank the players on a scale of 1 to 10 in terms in value (where 10 is LeBron James), you probably get something like this. 9 is sure all-star, 8 is a borderline all-star, 5 is a league-average guy. ESPN also named their top 100 players and most of these guys are on here.

Giannis 9.5 (#2)

Harden 9.5 (#4)

Adebayo 9.0 (#13)

Holiday 8.5 (#33)

Middleton 8.5 (#36)

Herro 7.5 (#59)

Lopez 7.0 (#80)

DDV 6.0

I think in a playoff setting, Giannis and Adebayo aren't that different in value. Long term, he's also 3 years younger than Giannis and may have a higher ceiling in terms of eventually becoming a decent midrange shooter.

Harden is definitely superior to Middleton and Herro is much better than DDV. That's why I would argue your second lineup is the strongest.

Holiday

Herro

Harden

Adebayo

Lopez

I would argue that even your first lineup is better than the current lineup.

The fact that we are so invested in Giannis as fans makes us more blind to the fact that he has some serious flaws in his game. If he develops a reliable half-court go-to move (he doesn't even to be a 3 point shooter), he'll end up as a top 10 player all time. If he continues as he is now, he's still a Hall of Famer, but you are looking at a top 50 all-time type.

Don't get me wrong, I want Giannis to sign the supermax and try to bring home a title and be like Dirk Novitzki. But I have to admit a shrewd GM would sell high and get Adebayo/Herro and some other pieces and probably be better off. IF Giannis develops a half-court game, you'd regret doing that trade, but Giannis is 26 and the list of guys that become much better shooters after 26 is pretty short. You are probably looking at Magic Johnson and Jason Kidd (who both became pretty good 3 point shooters as they aged).

I also like Bam and Herro a bunch. I live within 200 miles of Miami and have adopted them as my second team. I’d be all for flipping G for those two, and sure, some low 20s picks.

I think Herro is good, but he hasn’t been game planned against. He’s not a star- he had a really good playoffs, but coaches will start planning for him. He’s not 100% arrived just yet.

Harden doesn’t come to Milwaukee if Giannis is here. That’s oil and water. But if you’re going to trade Giannis and Middleton, and get Harden, Adebayo, and Herro plus picks, you can’t help but think they’re actually better. I do question whether Middleton is enough. If Philly is offering Ben Simmons (which rumored), I don’t think Houston will look at Middleton and say “we’ll take him instead”. But if the Bucks were to offer, say, DD, DJW, Thanasis, and Lopez, and the Rockets added Gordon’s salary to the deal to save them a ton of $$$.

It has taken a little while for me, but i am coming around to the idea- the Bucks are completely exposed and they cannot afford to just “see what happens” and wait until after the season. They have no assets for the next 5 years to rebuild. They’re all in right now. So unless they are playing a game and there’s a back room agreement, the Bucks may have no choice but to trade him. If they don’t and he leaves, they’re completely fucked. And not a couple years from now... next season, and each of the next 5. They just opened Fiserv, they don’t have a choice. They would be very competitive with Harden and Holiday plus Adebayo and Herro. A little thin in the frontcourt, but plenty of stay power at the top of the EC.

The NBA hot stove stuff is unbelievable, but it keeps the league in the news.

If you look at some of the moves over the last decade, the cumulative player turnover is just crazy.

Think about OKC, in the last 5 years they've had 7 players who have made all-star teams either while they were on the Thunder or afterwards (Durant, Harden, Westbrook, Paul, Oladipo, Sabonis, Paul George).  Three of these players were MVPs and maybe 5 are future Hall of Famers. They include 5 of the 9 highest-paid players in the NBA. Those 7 guys will make 240 million this year. Despite cycling through all those players in a short time period, they will field a lineup this year that includes one promising, young player (Gilgeous-Alexander) and three 35-year-olds finishing out questionable contracts (Ariza, George Hill, and Al Horford). They've cycled through all those all-stars to end up with this group (that will struggle to win 20 games) and 17 first-round picks over the next 6 years.

If Giannis leaves without any compensation coming back, that's what the Bucks are going to be except they don't control any of their own first-round picks until 2028.

The guys at Behind the Bucks Pass have the pros/cons broken down.

https://behindthebuckpass.com/...-flags-james-harden/

https://behindthebuckpass.com/...-trade-james-harden/

It would be bold. I just don’t know how Harden fits on a Championship team. Does Giannis’ passion to win rub off on him? Would Harden’s skill and desire to be a great scorer run off on Giannis?

@Music City posted:

The guys at Behind the Bucks Pass have the pros/cons broken down.

https://behindthebuckpass.com/...-flags-james-harden/

https://behindthebuckpass.com/...-trade-james-harden/

It would be bold. I just don’t know how Harden fits on a Championship team. Does Giannis’ passion to win rub off on him? Would Harden’s skill and desire to be a great scorer run off on Giannis?

You are right, it comes down to what Giannis wants. There is no scenario where you give the ball to Giannis in the halfcourt of a close playoff game over Harden. You really shouldn't even be giving him the ball over Middleton or Holiday so that will be interesting to see how they handle it if that's the lineup this year.

If you flip Harden for Middleton, it would make more sense to run Bud's 4 out offense with Harden initiating most of the time or running some version of Dantoni's Houston offense. Giannis would fit perfectly into the Clint Capela role and would feast on lobs and offensive rebounds. The problem is whether Giannis' ego could handle that. He'd probably go from averaging 30/14/6 to about 20/20/3.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to acquire one of the prolific scorers in NBA history - and a guy that is virtually unguardable if he gets going and slot him into the Middleton role in Milwaukee's offense.

That's a problem that all these teams that are tampering with Giannis right now are going to have to deal with if they get him. Are you really going to do what Bud did and design your entire offense around a system that maximizes Giannis but gets you eliminated in the playoffs when he can't shoot outside of 5 feet from the basket? To optimize him, he has to be a complementary option. I've been trying to think who Giannis' best comparison historically is. I think on offense it's James Worthy. A tremendous finisher who could also handle the ball and was a decent passer. Worthy is a Hall of Famer who in his prime averaged 21-22 points a game and took most of his shots within 5 feet of the basket. He was one of the best 3rd options in NBA history (Magic and Kareem). If you slotted prime James Worthy into the Giannis role on the Bucks right now on offense, he'd look pretty similar. Worthy as a first option could have averaged close to 30 points game for a team that was a perennial playoff team but never made it past the first or second round. That's where Giannis is right now.

Giannis is James Worthy on offense combined with Hakeem Olajuwon's defense and rebounding. That's a great player, but I don't think it's a recipe on offense to win a title.

That's why I would argue that if Giannis isn't signing long-term, just blow everything up. If you could flip Middleton and DDV for Harden then I think it almost forces you to move Giannis for Adebayo/Herro. Music mentioned this before, but which crunchtime lineup would you rather have?

Harden, Adebayo, Holiday, Lopez, Herro

or

Middleton, Giannis, Holiday, Lopez, DDV

You go with the Harden one every time. And I think Adebayo would be more likely to take being a second or third option than Giannis will long-term. Right now, Giannis seems to want it both ways. He wants the be the number one option on a title team, but then he has started to complain to ownership that he doesn't have enough help after the reason they lose is about half of his deficiencies and about half Eric Bledsoe. OK, they moved Bledsoe for Holiday who is a clear upgrade, especially in the playoffs, but he still won't sign yet. Why? Because he wanted a Euro-player that makes jump shots?

I've become invested in the Bucks again because of Giannis. It's been great to see him and Middleton be the cornerstones of a team they played big minutes on 8 years ago go from 15 wins to 65 wins a year. But he if wants to be an all-time great he should just own up to the fact that he's the main reason they lost in the playoffs the last two years. We all know it was the right move to trade Bledsoe, but the correct statements from Giannis this off-season should have been the following. "We have a team good enough to win a title with. I haven't played as well as I needed to in the Toronto and Miami playoff games.  I'm happy to sign the supermax and get back to concentrating on winning a title by doing the hard work that I need to do to elevate this team." Instead, he seems to be playing the diva stuff.

Just to remind people, these are Giannis' stats in the 7 playoff losses to the Raptors and Heat that he played in.

FG 53-120 (44.0%)

3 FG 7-27 (25.9%)

FT 38-74 (51.4%)

If he even hits 70% of his FTs they probably win the 2018-19 title. These are not small sample sizes. Man up, take more accountability, and get it done. Don't hide behind your agent and implicitly indicate that you don't think your current teammates are good enough to win with.

I lived in Minnesota for almost Kevin Garnett’s entire career.  The comparisons between him and Giannis are uncanny,  Drafted early.  Freakish athlete.  No real position.  Elite defender.  But Garnett really didn’t become dangerous until he developed the mid range jumper.

Giannis is a better athlete.  In fact, I would argue pound for pound other than Russ Westbrook he’s the best athlete in the league.  But is he an elite basketball player?  I don’t think so.  His FT shooting is terrible.  I think he has average to above average basketball IQ. He’s shaky with the jump shot.  Yes he’s a good passer and a fantastic rebounder and a dominant weak side defender. He says all the right things.  But is that enough?  I’m not sure.

This is truly a situation where Horst and his agent need to be honest with each other and it goes like this- yes Giannis is a unicorn and the Bucks would love to extend him but he must do so before December 21.  If not, the Bucks must do what’s best for the future of the organization.  And that means dealing him this year.  And the Bucks have every right to do so and should do so.  

In the end, this is a business and the track record isn’t great for star players re-upping at end of season.  Quit fucking around 34.  You are on the clock.  You don’t sign?  Fine.  Get ready to move because it’s you that put the Bucks in this situation.

i would love nothing more than see this team win a title.   I was born in Milwaukee in early 1972.  Not that long after the Bucks won their only title.  My dad was a huge Kareem fan and he passed it along to me.  I grew up in the 80s with good teams only to lose to Philly or Boston.  Then 2001 came and it rekindled my interest.  Then Giannis came along with new ownership group. Milwaukee deserves to bring the LOB trophy home.  And it would be amazing if it was Giannis that got them there. But if he’s unsure or not committed then deal him.  That’s the way the league works today.

But we don’t know if the deal is even possible. Houston wants a star and a truckload of picks. Houston wants to rebuild sure- but they’re not just going to give a top 5 player away for Kris Middleton. Why would they want Middleton?

If the Bucks have even the slightest shot at bringing Harden on board they’re going to need to bring a third team that can add a pick to the deal. Maybe a team interested in Middleton as an added piece to a playoff roster and willing to give up a pick to get it. Maybe a second tier team looking for a shooter. Harden goes to Milwaukee, Houston gets a pick plus expirings, the third team gets Middleton. That’s the only way I see this going down. They may not get a boatload of picks- don’t think anyone has that kind package to offer for Harden.

So perhaps San Antonio could be pulled in- they have Derozen’s expiring to offer Houston to get Middleton who is a building block for a faster turnaround. They can offer a 2022 first rounder, which Houston might be interested since 2021 they have a crapload of OKC picks to use.

Maybe the Mavs, who already had interest in Middleton when he was a pending FA. Adding an All Star perimeter scorer would be a great move for an up and coming Mavs team, while offering their 2022 pick + Johnson and Hardaway’s expirings to Houston. Bucks get Harden, Houston gets the Mavs 2022 first and save a boatload of cash for the rebuild.

A Middleton/DDV/DJ Wilson combo for Harden would work in matching up salaries.  

Now, you can argue whether or not that enough if you are Houston but here’s the reality - it’s not like there are 10 teams out there willing or able to deal for him.  Much like Chris Paul, his salary is a major impediment to making a trade.  And you know he’s basically a 2 year rental.   And he can have a bit of an attitude.

So what teams could trade for him?  Realistically, it’s the Nets, Bucks, Sixers and Heat.  

From all indications the Nets aren’t interested and why would they be?  They have two ball dominant players already.  You add a third to the mix and that makes no sense.  Plus, the Rockets would likely want someone like Kyrie back in exchange and that won’t happen.

For the Heat, they have assets and could package something together and Pat Riley has a history of luring in superstar players.  But would adding Harden disrupt their chemistry?  It might.  And Houston is going to want either Bam or Herro (or both) back in exchange.   The only way Miami does that is if Giannis is off the table but that’s still a lot to give him for 2 years of Harden.

For Philly, the obvious exchange would be Simmons and someone else for Harden but I’m not sure that makes them a whole lot better.  And Simmons is younger and under control a lot longer.  But if the Sixers wanted to push their chips back in the middle of the table they could.

Then there’s the Bucks.  Of all the teams this makes the most sense.   I know Middleton isn’t a superstar, but he’s a very good player on both ends of the court.  And he’s not a head case.  I think people around the league actually value him more than we do.  The same could be said for DDV.  It’s possible he could get much better and he’s cheap.  But he’s still ascending.  DJ is a throw in, nothing more, nothing less.   In terms of fit, he gives then the sniper they need in crunch time because defenses now can’t sag down low and pack the paint.  You do that and Harden will light you up.  It’s truly pick your poison.  Get demolished in the paint by Giannis, or give up a bunch of 3s to Harden.   And let’s not forget if one or both of them are off you still have guys like Lopez and Holiday to pick up the slack.

The Bucks, much like the Rockets, are at a crossroads.  Something needs to give for both teams and if it’s me I make that deal.  If Giannis doesn’t extend after this season then you can always flip Harden and his expiring deal for picks or players.  That’s a much better scenario than Giannis leaving and leaving a team with Middleton who normally would have little to no trade value.  But Harden absolutely would a year from now.  In fact, you could probably recoup at least a couple of first rounders they gave up for Holiday.  The player and the 41MM of expiring salary is very appealing.

The Harden-Middleton trade can not without Lopez. The Bucks are about 500,000  next to the hard cap, which they can not go over, this is why they have only 14 players, instead of 15. They can not take on any extra salary

I've just been playing around with the ESPN trade machine this morning during a break from doing some real work. If you trade Giannis, you make whatever team getting him take on Thanasis' contract as well, because that's just a waste of a roster spot if Giannis goes anyway. You could also throw in DJ Wilson to make some of these work.

The potential packages (some discussed already) for Giannis and Thanasis (and DJ Wilson if necessary) in terms of my subjective ranking of value for the Bucks.

1. Heat - Adebayo, Herro, and Igoudala/Olynyk (95% of Giannis' value)

2. Sixers - Ben Simmons (90% value)

3. Clippers - Paul George (would need to throw in DJ Wilson) (75% value but a terrible fit for the Bucks).

4. Raptors - Siakam (50% value)

5. Mavs - Porzingis (40%)

6. Celtics - Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart (would need to throw in DJ Wilson) (40%)

As someone said above, Harden for Giannis straight up doesn't work. The easiest way to get there salary wise if Harden for Giannis, Thanasis, and Lopez and that makes no sense for the Bucks.

The Mavs have few valuable assets outside of Doncic and Porzingis and a straight-up for Porzingis is not enough value. Siakam is also not good enough by himself to give away a year of Giannis. Those 3 teams would have to throw in about 5 picks to make that deal worthwhile and even then it's not worth it.

The Heat package is the best they are going to get, but you have no initiator to run the offense through (unless you think Herro can do that, but I think Herro is better off the ball). I think you could flip Giannis for Ben Simmons and run the exact same offense featuring Simmons with similar results. Simmons is also a tremendous defensive player. Paul George doesn't fit the Bucks other talent because without a Giannis/Simmons type the scheme doesn't make sense.

The more I look at it, the best option the Bucks have is to flip Giannis for Ben Simmons. Simmons is also first-team NBA all-defense. He's not as good as a rim protector, but he might be a better on-ball defender. He's a much better passer than Giannis and a good finisher. If that doesn't work, you go with some package from the Heat. They have to do something if Giannis won't extend.

The bottom line for Giannis is that if it's really all about "wanting the best chance to win" is that he really doesn't have a better option than Milwaukee this year. Of course, if you just added him to the Heat without anything coming back to the Bucks the Heat would be great, but it doesn't work that way. Any trade now weakens the team he goes to.

I think what it amounts to is that Giannis knows that this Bucks team probably gives him the best chance to win this year. The problem is that he probably figures that another team (or several other teams) gives him a much better chance next year. So, he'd like to play out this year with the Bucks and then have the choice of where to go after that. The Bucks can't do that because Giannis appears to be looking out exclusively for himself.

@Slobknocker posted:

The Harden-Middleton trade can not without Lopez. The Bucks are about 500,000  next to the hard cap, which they can not go over, this is why they have only 14 players, instead of 15. They can not take on any extra salary

The following combinations also work (not that the Rockets would want them).

1. Harden for Middleton and DJ Wilson

2. Harden for Middleton, Thanasis, and DDV

3. Harden for Middleton and Lopez

Simmons has underperformed given his talent and ability.   He’s basically a younger version of Giannis.  Can’t shoot consistently, and lacks that killer instinct that all great players have.  He does have star power though and if it meant losing Giannis for nothing then that might be a trade worth making.

What these star players need to realize is there are limits to where they can go given cap constraints.  Giannis included.  And if he really wants to win the Bucks (the next couple of years) have as good of a shot as any of them.

I've always thought the best package was Herro, Adebayo and additional picks/players if possible.  Both these guys have big upsides.  Herro has "It" and should only improve.  I wonder if the Heat would want to part with them for Giannis?  I have zero interest in Simmons or for that matter the other options above.   The Heat deal is by far the best value, hands down.

I’m not a fan of Harden, but if Hou would take Middleton and Wilson for him.  I’d take that deal every Day of the week and twice on Sunday.  😂

Breaking: Giannis Antetokounmpo says he is signing a contract extension with the Milwaukee Bucks. The two-time MVP will sign a five-year, $228.2 million supermax extension with the franchise, the largest deal in NBA history, sources tell @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium.

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) December 15, 2020

I was certain he'd pull a "LeBron" & make us wait until the last minute on the 21st.

Bam! Now everyone can chill out!

No shit... lol!

This is my home, this is my city.. I’m blessed to be able to be a part of the Milwaukee Bucks for the next 5 years. Let’s make these years count. The show goes on, let’s get it. 🤎🙏🏽 pic.twitter.com/895tCBE9RK

— Giannis Ugo Antetokounmpo (@Giannis_An34) December 15, 2020

Thanks, Giannis! Now make some friggin free throws and develop a killer midrange and post game!