Let's Talk Cowboys (Divisional Playoff Game 1/15/17)

On another thread, they talked about why Dak fell to the fourth round--get him out of the pocket, throwing on the run, and his accuracy is horrible. I look for Haha to get a couple picks if we can do that.

The keys to this one are pretty simple and pretty obvious.  Cover the receivers and get pressure on Dak. Preferably, without blitzing too much but the Packers may be forced to blitz because the Cowpies OL is that good. 

Stop the run which is easier said than done but more importantly run the ball to keep Zeke off the field.  If the Cowboys impose their will with the running game it could make for a long day

Start fast!  I like their chances against Dallas if they can get points on the board any way that they can.  I think if we can force Dak to have to win the game passing the ball we have a good shot at this one.  .   

As you said Lambeau Lobo, I do think that they can be taken advantage of on the defensive side of the ball.  They haven't had to worry about their defense too much because usually they played keep away with running the ball and short passing attack. 

My other thought is that I am boycotting ESPN and other media outlets for the most part this week because I am sure that ESPN will be all Cowboys all the time and probably will be so Cowboys heavy I couldn't handle it anyhow.

Formula is simple: limit Elliot and force Prescott to win a shootout. I don't care how good he has been, a rookie is not winning a shootout with Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs. The score was lopsided, but when you look at the game the opportunities were there for GB last time, they just made some uncommon errors:

• (3:04) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-J.Nelson to GB 32 for 18 yards (42-B.Church). FUMBLES (42-B.Church), RECOVERED by DAL-24-M.Claiborne at GB 36. 24-M.Claiborne to GB 36 for no gain (82-R.Rodgers).
• (10:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 18-R.Cobb INTERCEPTED by 42-B.Church at DAL 35. 42-B.Church to DAL 49 for 14 yards (65-L.Taylor).
• (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle to DAL 4 for -3 yards (95-D.Irving). FUMBLES (95-D.Irving), RECOVERED by DAL-95-D.Irving at DAL 4. 95-D.Irving to DAL 4 for no gain (75-B.Bulaga).
• (2:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 88-T.Montgomery up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (95-D.Irving). FUMBLES (95-D.Irving), RECOVERED by DAL-75-R.Davis at 50. 75-R.Davis to 50 for no gain (78-J.Spriggs). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

They ran 75 plays against Dallas the first time and over half of those plays were in Dallas territory. They can move the ball against this D, they just have to not turn the ball over 4 times. Rodgers only had 7 INTs on the year, that was Jordy's only fumble, and Monty only had 1 other fumble the rest of the year. Rodgers had several fumbles, but that was just kind of fluke fumble while running the ball. All of those errors were flukes really, Dallas won't be able to generate those kinds of turnovers from the current team. 

It all hinges on how well we deal with EE.  Our very compromised secondary was saved last wk by the Giants inability to run vs our light boxes.  DB's will be much more on their own this time.  Our hot run D at the time was pounded in the first meeting and it's hard to expect much different this time save for one X factor - our red hot O.  If we can get ahead early with long drives we can limit their run game and limit their points.  If AR can continue to thrive without 87 we gotta helluva chance.

Packers will be fine, if I am not mistaken they scored 38 points in 3 quarters against what was touted to be a very good D....Without Jordy.

Limit unforced errors, get a bit of a running game going, and if and when the ball hits a D players hands catch it.  Oh yeah, the D does not need to dominate, just make them earn everything....no missed tackles.   

In AR we trust.

With Dak being a rookie QB and the Cowboys having a strong offensive line and RB, I am sure they will feature a conservative game plan with a lot of running, play action, and short to mid passes.

Obviously, the Packers want to disrupt this scheme and I think the main thing would be to stifle the run game a bit.  And to have the Packers offense be effective enough for the Cowboys to need to move things along faster.

Question for the group:  Is the Packer defense better at defending the short ball than the long ball?  It seems like that would be the case when we talk about a "bend, don't break" kind of defense that plays better with a shorter field.  Is that reason for some optimism in stopping the Dallas' attack?

I was surprised to see that Zeke has put the ball on the ground a bit.  He had 5 fumbles this season - tied for the most among the top-10 RBs.  Two of them have come in the four December games.  

Wouldn't mind seeing another one this Sunday.  If we win the turnover battle +2, I would be shocked if we don't get the W.  

On defense, our LBs are going to be key. They need to stop the run, followed by keeping Witten in check (with perhaps Burnett's help). Witten worries me; he's so good and is so savvy that he could play a major part if we don't cover him. The DL needs to squeeze the pocket and make Dak uncomfortable, if not flush him out.

Dr._Bob posted:

Question for the group:  Is the Packer defense better at defending the short ball than the long ball?  It seems like that would be the case when we talk about a "bend, don't break" kind of defense that plays better with a shorter field.  Is that reason for some optimism in stopping the Dallas' attack?

My optimism comes from the point that GD made: if we are somehow able to contain Zeke - that's a big IF - and make Dak beat us in a shootout, I have confidence that: (a) the Cowboys (read: Dak) will eventually make a mistake, and (b) they will not be able to beat Rodgers in a shootout.   

Grave Digger posted:

Formula is simple: limit Elliot and force Prescott to win a shootout. I don't care how good he has been, a rookie is not winning a shootout with Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs. The score was lopsided, but when you look at the game the opportunities were there for GB last time, they just made some uncommon errors:

• (3:04) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-J.Nelson to GB 32 for 18 yards (42-B.Church). FUMBLES (42-B.Church), RECOVERED by DAL-24-M.Claiborne at GB 36. 24-M.Claiborne to GB 36 for no gain (82-R.Rodgers).
• (10:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 18-R.Cobb INTERCEPTED by 42-B.Church at DAL 35. 42-B.Church to DAL 49 for 14 yards (65-L.Taylor).
• (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle to DAL 4 for -3 yards (95-D.Irving). FUMBLES (95-D.Irving), RECOVERED by DAL-95-D.Irving at DAL 4. 95-D.Irving to DAL 4 for no gain (75-B.Bulaga).
• (2:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 88-T.Montgomery up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (95-D.Irving). FUMBLES (95-D.Irving), RECOVERED by DAL-75-R.Davis at 50. 75-R.Davis to 50 for no gain (78-J.Spriggs). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

They ran 75 plays against Dallas the first time and over half of those plays were in Dallas territory. They can move the ball against this D, they just have to not turn the ball over 4 times. Rodgers only had 7 INTs on the year, that was Jordy's only fumble, and Monty only had 1 other fumble the rest of the year. Rodgers had several fumbles, but that was just kind of fluke fumble while running the ball. All of those errors were flukes really, Dallas won't be able to generate those kinds of turnovers from the current team. 

When I went back & looked at stats from first game  I was surprised to find that we ran more plays than they did. 

I know that this is a much different team, but this game has the same feeling as the divisional game against Atlanta during SB run in 2010/11.  We're not bringing another stout defense to the table, but the offense is on a roll that surpasses anything we saw in 2010.  

The Green Bay Packers are the number 1 OL in pass protection in the NFL. YES, they are ranked higher then Dallas in pass pro. 

The Cowboys DL is 25th in the NFL in pass rush efficiency. 

Aaron Rodgers is going to find time to throw the football. 

Dr._Bob posted:

Question for the group:  Is the Packer defense better at defending the short ball than the long ball?  It seems like that would be the case when we talk about a "bend, don't break" kind of defense that plays better with a shorter field.  Is that reason for some optimism in stopping the Dallas' attack?

I was thinking the same thing.  The Cowboys offense is not the kind to especially be able to take advantage of a defense that is a bit depleted at CB.

On paper, I like this matchup.

One other thing, if the Packers can get in an early offensive groove, perhaps the rookie QB unravels a bit.

He doesn't need more time.

He needs to hit the open receiver on time as the plays are designed. When he did that in the second half last Sunday the offense worked quite well.

YATittle posted:

On another thread, they talked about why Dak fell to the fourth round--get him out of the pocket, 

well, to do that weve got to get through their massive OL. We had little pressure on Manning and Stafford. I think Dom can gamble with extra blitzers with Dak.

If we cant stop the run, there wont be as many opportunities to make him throw.

It will be very interesting to see how Dom schemes for this one.

What worries me is the gameplan being too heavy on defending the run. Cheating the Safeties up is a good way to get burned over the top by their receivers. Prescott is a rookie, but he's a very accurate passer and I think he could hit some deep passes that take advantage of the 1 on 1 matchups outside. Dez is a very good receiver, Beasley is a good receiver, Terrance Williams is good, those guys can't be forgotten. Dallas won't be conservative, I think they know they might get into a shootout with Rodgers, that's not ideal for them. I expect them to come out firing like NY did. 

I think you have to take that risk that Dak can outduel Rodgers. I hope they do

I dont see why Dallas wouldnt pound Elliott at us early and often until they need to do otherwise. 

FreeSafety posted:

He doesn't need more time.

He needs to hit the open receiver on time as the plays are designed. When he did that in the second half last Sunday the offense worked quite well.

Aaron is simply different level football. Greg Cossell article talks about how it's kind of impossible to stop Rodgers right now. The Giants were throwing everything at AR in the second half. Single safety high. Two deep. Zero blitz. Rolling safeties. He said Aaron identified all of it fast and just destroyed the defenses will. He specifically mentioned the last TD to Cobb. He recognized a cover 3 zone at the snap. Rodgers could have gone underneath to Cook but held the ball long enough for Leon Hall (dick) to vacate the deep middle to jump Cooks route then Rodgers unleashed a tracer to Cobb for an easy TD. Aaron will hold the ball if he sees a way to look a defender out of an area he knows he can exploit. 

FreeSafety posted:

He doesn't need more time.

He needs to hit the open receiver on time as the plays are designed. When he did that in the second half last Sunday the offense worked quite well.

As AR noted, McCarthy was a big reason for the change. Rodgers also said it started on the 31 yard Adams pass to the sideline. This sequence.

Green Bay Packers at 3:45

1-10-NYG 38          (3:45) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass deep right to D.Adams ran ob at NYG 7 for 31 yards (E.Apple).

1-7-NYG 7          (3:18) (Shotgun) T.Montgomery left end to NYG 5 for 2 yards (O.Vernon, K.Robinson).

2-5-NYG 5           (2:32) (Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to D.Adams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.  (still not sure what AR was NOT seeing initially)

Grave Digger posted:

Formula is simple: limit Elliot and force Prescott to win a shootout. I don't care how good he has been, a rookie is not winning a shootout with Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs. 

{snip}

They ran 75 plays against Dallas the first time and over half of those plays were in Dallas territory. They can move the ball against this D, they just have to not turn the ball over 4 times.  

Lacy was already hobbled that game and yet he ran for 45 yards on 7 carries in the 1st half. Had 61 yards on his first 11 carries, then he had his ankle rolled up on again and he was done. This might be the week we see Michael get 15 carries. They played Spriggs as an extra OL often in the first meeting. 

ChilliJon posted:

He specifically mentioned the last TD to Cobb. He recognized a cover 3 zone at the snap. Rodgers could have gone underneath to Cook but held the ball long enough for Leon Hall (dick) to vacate the deep middle to jump Cooks route then Rodgers unleashed a tracer to Cobb for an easy TD. Aaron will hold the ball if he sees a way to look a defender out of an area he knows he can exploit. 

 

I saw a break down of that play that showed how Cook was supposed to run at Hall to draw him away from Cobb. Cook got jammed at the LOS and it took him longer to get Hall's attention. The play's design worked, it just had a little delay because of the jam. Good job by AR for sticking with the design of the called play. I have no problem with that.

What bothers me is when, IMO, he ignores or gives up on the play's design too quickly and goes into scramble mode unnecessarily. The Adams TD for example. The called play's design created an open receiver for an easy TD (although it appears to be 2nd or 3rd in the read progression) yet AR went into scramble mode and made a much more difficult play for himself, the receiver and the OLine. 

Props to MM for coaching him up and things looked much better later in the game.

Witten is the wild card, IMO. If they do the Gunter/Burnett blanket on Dez, that leaves Hyde on Witten, which is a tough matchup. 

Linebackers can cover Witten. Hyde unfortunately needs to cover a WR.

Whole key to this game is the performance of GB's front seven.  Elliott would not be the force he has been without that outstanding offensive line in front of him.  If their o-line dominates our front seven...game over.  Guion, Daniels and Clark are doing to have to be supreme lane-cloggers in this one....wish Pennels would not have f'd up because it would be nice to have another fresh, big body.  I think the Packers' offense can definitely put up points on Dallas, but if a ground and pound game dominates time of possession and keeps Rodgers and company off the field it's lights out.  

Do exactly what Clemson did to Bama- own the clock. In the end,  execute and score at the end to win. Pass rush and containment will be key. No Kaepernick bs...

Leader in the club-house is front 7 contain and pressure, so odd (to me at least) that they let Pennel go.

#trustted #truststupidface #trustthetape #trusttheprocess #firecapers

 1. Be creative with Montgomery 

2. Fake the jet sweep a couples times to Janis or whomever

3. On tape, study what the Giants did to beat the Cowboys  

4. Sure, you want to stretch the defense, but what's wrong with running the wco and moving the chains?

FreeSafety posted:

He doesn't need more time.

He needs to hit the open receiver on time as the plays are designed. When he did that in the second half last Sunday the offense worked quite well.

Exactly! No surprise that the offense took off when ARod was hurt and couldn't scramble as much.

Hungry5 posted:

Leader in the club-house is front 7 contain and pressure, so odd (to me at least) that they let Pennel go.

#trustted #truststupidface #trustthetape #trusttheprocess #firecapers

McCarthy has to make sure Capers packs the toupee that lets his brain breath. He switched to a thicker rug before the losing stretch to prepare for the cold and his brain got too inflamed when it stayed warmer for longer. They're going to a dome in Texas, he can bring his breathable summer toupee. 

#SmartGuyStupidFace #ChampionshipRug

Grave Digger posted:

 I expect them {Dallas} to come out firing like NY did. 

I don't. I assure you Garrett is preaching 2 things this week to his team

1. RTFB
2. No turnovers

Wear down the Packer defense with the running game & try to keep Rodgers off the field. It's the only defense against him right now.

That Giant defense was the best in the playoffs. I'd probably put the Patriots & Chiefs 2a & 2b.

Seattle & Dallas defenses can both be torched.

Who wants to see a Green Bay & ATL rematch for the NFC Championship Game?

They might score over 100 combined

What is strange is that even with gaining 191 yards on the ground vs. us, we still ran 6 more plays than they did! If we can hold them to 23 pts or lower we win this game & may still even do so giving up 30. 

Watya talkin' 'bout X4?

Studying what NYG did vs DAL doesn't help a whole lot because our D personnel is too different.

I am betting DAL/Dak is working on thier deep ball.  Everyone knows Dak's success has been in shorter throws and GB D will be geared to clog that up.  That will leave deeper routes open and it will just matter whether or not the rookie can hit them.

Friend of Fennell

Shot 1 - Great example of Hicks' instincts and disruptive ability on this INT vs Dallas. Love Tulloch's read on screen as well #Eagles pic.twitter.com/HIBOrcMwvi

— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) January 10, 2017

Shot 2 - Same coverage that got Jenkins' Week 16 pick 6 vs Giants. #Eagles play 3-over-2 in the slot. Hicks jumps shallow in-breaker for INT pic.twitter.com/H7KdlighCT

— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) January 10, 2017

Lambeau Lobo posted:

Dr._Bob posted:

Question for the group:  Is the Packer defense better at defending the short ball than the long ball?  It seems like that would be the case when we talk about a "bend, don't break" kind of defense that plays better with a shorter field.  Is that reason for some optimism in stopping the Dallas' attack?

My optimism comes from the point that GD made: if we are somehow able to contain Zeke - that's a big IF - and make Dak beat us in a shootout, I have confidence that: (a) the Cowboys (read: Dak) will eventually make a mistake, and (b) they will not be able to beat Rodgers in a shootout.   

This is how I view it as well.   The offense must score and make the Rookie feel pressure to do more than manage the game.   

Defense needs to have a good decent redzone ratio.  Anytime we hold them to 3, it's a win.

GBFanForLife posted:

Linebackers can cover Witten. Hyde unfortunately needs to cover a WR.

Joe Thomas.   His performance is going to be one of the keys to the game.