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@ilcuqui posted:

@Todd_Rosiak:  Craig Counsell said Brandon Woodruff is out for the wild-card series with a right shoulder capsular injury.

"His availability for the postseason is up in the air at this point," Counsell said.

No decision as of yet as to who is starting Game 2 for the Brewers.

Well, so much for the hope that the Brewers could ride their top 3 for a deep playoff run. It was going to be an uphill climb anyway, but forget about it now. I'll still watch and hope, but now they only really have 3 starting pitchers you can trust in a playoff game.

I wonder how serious this injury is. Woodruff did get hit pretty hard his last start (4 ERs in 5 innings), but most of that was due to a first inning 3-run home run. In his last inning of work in that game, he was hitting 95 on the radar gun consistently.

I'm sure he's hurt, but how badly? The issue is that he's looking for a contract extension and if he goes out there and pushes it and does some damage, he could cost himself 100 million dollars. If I'm his agent, I shut him down the rest of the season. It's what happened to Ben Sheets in 2008.

@Blair Kiel posted:

Saw an interview with him in the last week in the locker room and he truly cherishes being a career-long Brewer. I know money ultimately talks, but maybe he does love the franchise enough to stay put. What was the last big contract the Crew gave to a pitcher? Suppan?

As of 2020. Right before Yelich's extension.

https://www.jsonline.com/story...-brewers/4954959002/



Christian Yelich, 7 years, 188.5 million.



Previous biggest contracts in Brewers history (total guaranteed money)

  1. OF Ryan Braun: 2011, 5 years, $105 million
  2. OF Lorenzo Cain: 2018, 5 years, $80 million
  3. RHP Matt Garza: 2014, 4 years, $52 million
  4. OF Ryan Braun: 2008, 8 years, $45 million
  5. RHP Jeff Suppan: 2006, 4 years, $42 million
  6. RHP Ben Sheets: 2005, 4 years, $38.5 million
  7. 2B Rickie Weeks: 2011, 4 years, $38.5 million
  8. 3B Aramis Ramirez: 2011, 3 years, $36 million
  9. RHP Kyle Lohse: 2013, 3 years, $33 million
  10. RHP Yovani Gallardo: 2010, 5 years, $30.1 million
  11. LHP Randy Wolf: 2009, 3 years, $29.75 million
  12. OF Corey Hart: 2010, 3 years, $25.6 million
  13. Util Bill Hall: 2007, 4 years, $24 million
  14. OF Carlos Gomez: 2013, 3 years, $24 million
  15. OF Geoff Jenkins: 2004, 3 years, $23 million
  16. OF Jeffrey Hammonds: 2000, 3 years, $21.75 million
  17. OF Jeromy Burnitz: 2001, 2 years, $20 million*
  18. OF Avisail Garcia: 2019, 2 years, $20 million
  19. C Yasmani Grandal: 2019: 1 year, $18.25 million
  20. OF Geoff Jenkins: 2001, 4 years, $18 million
  21. 1B Richie Sexson: 2001: 4 years, $17.5 million
  22. 1B Eric Thames: 2016, 3 years, $16 million
  23. RHP Freddy Peralta: 2020, 5 years, $15.5 million
  24. OF Jeromy Burnitz: 1998, 4 years, $14.5 million
  25. RHP Cal Edred: 1997, 4 years, $14.5 million

Counsell is not committing to Peralta in game 2 yet. Miley is the only other guy that could start game 2 because Houser pitched on Sunday and wasn't even expected to be on the roster due to unavailability.

The Woodruff injury truly is devastating because having 3 swings was really the advantage the Brewers had. If they advance to a 7 game series now we could see our #5 starter getting the ball.

There's some bad paper on that list but one of the worst contracts the Brewers ever doled out was to Ted Higuera. 4 years, $13 mil, injured, won 6 games over the next 3 season, a couple with ERAs over 7.

This is what's scary about Woody. He seemed like he was far more signable than Burnes but now there are serious question marks. This is the same injury that shelved him for 4 months earlier in the season.

It’s the problem with MLB right now.  

It’s literally feast or famine - guys make peanuts under team control for way too long, then when they do become eligible for an extension their contracts are astronomical.

Seems to me they need to start all the way back to addressing pay in the minors and lessen the service time needed for guys to hit free agency.

And get a salary cap in place including a tax above and a floor - so teams just can’t take the cheap route every single time.  Those high spending teams have to feel some of the pain as well.

As for Woody, it truly sucks because he’s had a fantastic year but unfortunately he also needs to consider his long term financial interests.  

Last edited by Tschmack

I don’t doubt for a second he is being too conservative about pitching if he could go. Journal article had him on tears talking about not being able to pitch. Given what y’all have discussed about the current state of pitching and contracts, it makes zero sense for the Brewers to give a guy a big contract.They just need to keep getting lucky with young arms. Tall order.

The injury really sends a red flag about signing Woodie. I felt he was a guy that wanted to be in Milw and would sign a contract that worked for the Brewers. I think Burnes is out of the Brewers price range. But now with this health concern it's not likely to happen.

Fortunately, the organization put the emphasis on pitching a few years back and is quite deep in the minors plus they've made productive trades. Houser could be the big winner in all this when it comes to who the Brewers sign. He's just a back end starter but he can eat up some innings.

I’m fine with not signing any of these guys to longer term deals.  But then we shouldn’t be surprised when they fall short nor should we have high expectations of postseason success.  

On the same note, I also don’t want to hear from Arnold or Anttanasio about how they can’t compete or how they need 300M from the state to help subsidize their investment.

MLB, the owners, and the players Union need to address the economic disparity because it sucks to see homegrown guys leave for greener pastures because teams like the Brewers can’t or won’t pay them.  

Last edited by Tschmack

The teams that make the World Series usually do so on the basis of having good players on cheap contracts that they then supplement with key free agent signings. Most of the time this involves paying big money for veteran #1 or #2 pitchers. The Brewers have 3 starters right now that are 20-30 million dollar a year guys if they hit free agency this winter. They could theoretically afford to use the money they didn't need to spend to get a Verlander type to compete to get some position player help. But they did very little to supplement that with veteran free agent help. Their only investment outside of Yelich was to use Wong's bad contract to trade for Winker's bad contract.



2022 Astros: Verlander 25 million, McCullers 16 million

2022 Phillies: Wheeler 26 million, Nola 16 million

2021 Braves: Morton 15 million, Smyly 11 million

2021 Astros: Greinke 25 million, Odorizzi 9 million

2020 Dodgers: Kershaw 31 million, Jansen 18 million

2020 Rays: Morton 15 million

2019 Nationals: Scherzer 37 million, Strasburg 39 million, Corbin 13 million

2019 Astros: Greinke and Verlander

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@Tschmack posted:


MLB, the owners, and the players Union need to address the economic disparity because it sucks to see homegrown guys leave for greener pastures because teams like the Brewers can’t or won’t pay them.  

Why would the owners or players care about disparity? The best players and large market owners rule the day and they're getting theirs.

@PackerRick posted:

The injury really sends a red flag about signing Woodie. I felt he was a guy that wanted to be in Milw and would sign a contract that worked for the Brewers. I think Burnes is out of the Brewers price range. But now with this health concern it's not likely to happen.

Fortunately, the organization put the emphasis on pitching a few years back and is quite deep in the minors plus they've made productive trades. Houser could be the big winner in all this when it comes to who the Brewers sign. He's just a back end starter but he can eat up some innings.

Burnes now has Scott Boras for an agent. You don't hire Boras as an agent if you are interested in any kind of hometown discount. He didn't hire him until after the Brewers pissed him off in arbitration this year.

Boras is good at what he does. Stephen Strasburg will make 350 million dollars over 21 seasons in which he had a guaranteed contract. Strasburg will end up pitching more than 68 innings in a season 8 times.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/wa...-6865/cash-earnings/

Steven Strasberg is precisely why the Brewers shouldn’t re-sign Burnes. He has value to move this off-season. Get 2 good minor league arms and hope one hits it. Same with Woody, although he’s lost a ton of value. We still control Freddie for what? Three years? With the young guys we have, maybe the window isn’t closing.

Burnes is from CA, and with so many west coast options and his elite status, he'll be able to chose whatever he wants. I expect the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants to make huge pitches for Burnes. All the big money teams (Yankees, Mets, Braves, Rangers, Cards, etc) will come after him not only because of his ability but he also seldom missed a start. He's been a starter for 3 years and averaged 31 starts a season. Once Burnes started getting CY votes Milw was in his rear view mirror.

@Blair Kiel posted:

Steven Strasberg is precisely why the Brewers shouldn’t re-sign Burnes. He has value to move this off-season. Get 2 good minor league arms and hope one hits it. Same with Woody, although he’s lost a ton of value. We still control Freddie for what? Three years? With the young guys we have, maybe the window isn’t closing.

Woodruff will be 31 years old before next season and he's pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title (162 innings) twice (once was in 2020 when he pitched 73 innings in a 60 game season).

Woodruff is a really bad investment given his lack of durability. As PackerRick said, Burnes is likely to hold up as a guy that will at least provide you some quality innings if he regresses a bit. The Brewers have to trade him in the off-season. Even if they had an owner that would be willing to increase the payroll and pay him very well, Boras will still get him as much money as possible with almost no other consideration.

If Woodruff needs some surgical work on his arm, he'll be back making 12-14 million next year from arbitration. You probably aren't getting much for him in a trade. As PackerRick said, he might be more valuable in a trade at the deadline next year if he came back and showed he was healthy in the first three months of the season and you could count on him to at least be a rental for a playoff push in 2024.

Last edited by MichiganPacker

I get the fact that teams like the Yankees have better income streams but does anyone think a Manny Machado or Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts type contract is a good investment?   Those guys making 30M a season into their late 30s is just dumb.  The pitching contracts are even worse because their skills are totally declining and injury risk increase as they get into their 30s.

They could solve this by reducing service time years allowing guys to get their money sooner- albeit lower in value not unlike the rookie wage scale in the NFL-  in exchange for getting a second contract when they hit 30 years of age.

I mean, Corbin Burnes turns 29 in a couple of weeks.   Not exactly a spring chicken.

Last edited by Tschmack
@Cheezers posted:

No Mitchell or Rowdy.   Not that Rowdy is deserving, but Winker?

The Brewers choices for offensive firepower off the bench are all bad. The average OPS in baseball this year is 736. Maybe Winker is slightly less likely to hit into a double play than Tellez and he does provide some defensive help, so that's probably the calculus that went into this decision. I'd rather have Mitchell though. If nothing else, he's a much better pinch runner and the extra inning rules make pinch runners more important than they used to be.

Contreras (828) and Yelich (818) along with the Brewers stats for Canha (800) and Santana (773) mean the Brewers have 4 guys that are above average. They have three other guys that are below average but still above 700: Adames is at 713, Caratini is at 711, Taylor is at 713 (and much better recently).

Then more than half the post-season roster is below 700 for OPS. I would be willing to bet that there aren't many playoff teams in history that have had this many well-below average hitters on their playoff roster.

Winker 567

Turang 585

Weimer 645

Miller 674

Perkins 675

Monasterio 678

Donaldson 680

Frelick 692

@Tschmack posted:

I get the fact that teams like the Yankees have better income streams but does anyone think a Manny Machado or Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts type contract is a good investment?  

It doesn't matter what we think, it only matters what the teams throwing the money around think. And if it puts fannies in the seats, sells jerseys, etc, and makes ticket price increases acceptable to the fans, it's a good investment in the eyes of an owner.

And Peguero hasn't pitched for what like 3 weeks.  His arm should be rested but what kind of control will he have?   He also never faced Arizona during the season.  Will that help or hurt him? 

Don't get the Stinker Winker thing at all.  I'd of rather had Mitchell than that clown.  And Wiemer while being very good defensively  he leaves more that a little to be desired at the plate.  He did bat .267 vs lefties with  7 homers.  Do you use him to pinch hit for Yelich against a lefty and then go in as a defensive replacement. We all know Yelich has a weak throwing arm.

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