Packers Off-season prediction/transactions thread

A) Not fire Capers

B) Doesn't matter

C) Defense collapses, not Capers fault

Cut:

CB-Sam Shields

RB-James Starks

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Re-sign:

OLB-Nick Perry – 5 years, 58 million, 20.5 million guaranteed, 6 million cap number in 2017

TE-Jared Cook – 3 years, 21.75 million, 7.25 million guaranteed, 4.42 million cap number in 2017

OLB-Datone Jones – 2 years, 7.5 million, 2 million guaranteed, 3.5 million cap number in 2017

RB-Eddie Lacy – 1 year, 3 million

LS-Brett Goode – 1 year, 0.9 million

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Tender the following players at minimum level:

OLB-Jayrone Elliott

ILB-Joe Thomas

P-Jacob Schum

Also, tender all of the exclusive right free agents

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Free agent signings:

None

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The following free agents would not be re-signed: Julius Peppers, T.J. Lang, Micah Hyde, Christine Michael, Don Barclay, J.C. Tretter.  Jordan Tripp is a restricted free agent who would not be tendered.

After the above moves the Packers would have 21.5 million of available cap space, then subtract another 5 million for the rookie class and it leaves them with a reasonable ~16.5 million in cap space entering the 2017 season.

I’d guess Thompson will prioritize Perry considering the team will be losing Peppers, Matthews will be coming off an injury (and average season) and Fackrell did not show much.  The nearest comparable is the Ryan Kerrigan deal but the Perry contract would be just slightly less mainly due to the durability issues.  But he had a big enough year in 2016 where I expect him to get a top 10 3-4 OLB contract.  If Thompson doesn’t sign Jared Cook he might be in a position where he is forced to draft two tight ends, one in the first three rounds, which probably puts Cook #2 on the list of priority re-signs.  It would be nice if Cook was willing to take a bit less to stay in Green Bay but I’d expect him to get a pretty good payday.   Datone Jones would be one of the first players I would show the door, but he did pile up 31 ½ pressures last year and Thompson probably sees more upside with him than what the basic stat line shows.  It doesn’t hurt that he was a former first round pick so Thompson will likely be very hesitant to part with him.  Lacy gets the one-year prove-it deal.  Hard for me to believe anybody else in the league would be willing to give him anything better considering the injury and weight concerns.

T.J. Lang, Micah Hyde and J.C. Tretter would all be players Thompson would like to have back.  The Packers have starters at four of the five positions along the offensive line and drafted two more offensive linemen in the last draft…those numbers work against Lang and Tretter.  Lang showed signs of breaking down last year but will still likely get a good enough contract on the open market that would return the Packers a fourth-round compensatory pick in 2018 which would be more motivation for Thompson to let him go.  Two months ago, I figured if Lang was out then Tretter would be re-signed, but post-season comments from writers indicate the Packers like him much more at center than anywhere else and he’s not better than Linsley.  The Packers will probably let him test the market and some team will overpay and give him the equivalent to what Dietrich-Smith got back in the day and Thompson will let him walk at that price.  The combination of Lang and Tretter leaving probably forces the Packers to draft two offensive linemen but I think Thompson will be comfortable with that.  Hyde is in a similar situation as Tretter, I don’t think Thompson will put a high priority on him and when he hits the market he will end up going for more than what was originally anticipated.  I also have the Packers letting Barclay go (finally), but if Tretter is out of the picture then there is a decent enough chance Barclay returns because he can play center.

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 Draft:

1 – Gareon Conley/CB/Ohio State

2 – Dorian Johnson/OG/Pittsburgh (trade second and third round pick to move up ~15 spots to draft Johnson)

4 – Elijah Lee/ILB/Kansas State

5 – Brian Hill/RB/Wyoming

5 – Scott Orndoff/TE/Pittsburgh

6 – Chase Roullier/OG-C/Wyoming

7 – Collin Bevans/DE/Northwest Missouri State

I have four cornerbacks off the board by the time the Packers pick (Lattimore, Tabor, Jones, Humphrey).  Thompson likes the size/speed guys at cornerback so while there might be other players like White, King, Tankersley and Lewis that may grade higher, I think Ted would go with Conley because of that height/speed combination.  But Ted goes cornerback with this pick and he goes height/speed combo, we’ll see what players like Conley, Tankersley, Wilson and Awuzie do during the workouts (I’d guess these guys are the prime targets).  Johnson would be somewhat of a tendency breaker because he’s a pure guard, not a left tackle that is projected to move to guard.  But when looking at the available talent, there seemed to be such a huge dropoff between Johnson and the next best offensive lineman that I had the Packers moving up to take him.  He’s an advanced, safe pick that can probably step in and start from day one.  Lee is a thin outside linebacker (228 pounds) that would move inside in an attempt to bring more athleticism to the Packer’s inside linebacking group.  In a “normal” defense he would see limited snaps as a nickel/dime linebacker but since the Packer’s base defense is a nickel then a fourth-round investment in this type of player isn’t that much of a gamble.  Hill is a good-sized back that can catch the ball.  Orndoff is an H-back, pass-catching type of tight end that can’t block a lick but it’s been a decade since the Packers have cared if a tight end can block or not.  Roullier is a long-shot that gets drafted because he can play guard and center and the Packers can use that type of player if Lang and Tretter and Barclay are all out of the picture.  Bevans can battle it out with Price for the sixth defensive lineman spot (assuming the Packers keep that many).  I would agree that this draft is unrealistic from the standpoint that the Packers didn’t draft at least three players out of Sam Seale territory.  Interesting how the board fell where the Packers end up with two players out of Pittsburgh and Wyoming.  That’s just the way it worked out.

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Projected 2017 roster:

QB – A. Rodgers, B. Hundley, J. Callahan

RB – T. Montgomery, E. Lacy, Brian Hill (rookie), (Crockett, Jackson)

FB – A. Ripkowski (Kerridge)

WR – J. Nelson, R. Cobb, D. Adams, G. Allison, T. Davis, J. Janis

TE – J. Cook, R. Rodgers, Scott Orndoff (rookie)

OL – D. Bakhtiari, B. Bulaga, C. Linsley, L. Taylor, Dorian Johnson (rookie), J. Spriggs, K. Murphy, Chase Roullier (rookie) (Lucas)

DL – M. Daniels, L. Guion, K. Clark, D. Lowry, C. Ringo, Collin Bevans (rookie) (Price)

OLB – C. Matthews, N. Perry, D. Jones, J. Elliott, K. Fackrell (Gilbert)

ILB – J. Ryan, B. Martinez, J. Thomas, Elijah Lee (rookie)

CB – L. Gunter, D. Randall, Q. Rollins, Gareon Conley (rookie), D. Goodson, J. Hawkins, M. Dorleant (Waters)

S – M. Burnett, H. Clinton-Dix, K. Brice, M. Evans

K – M. Crosby

P – J. Schum

LS – B. Goode

Have the traveling secretary reserve rooms in Minneapolis for the first week of Feb.

I see a future for Makinton Dorleant at CB. The team kept him around for a reason. I think they saw something.  I see his 4.4 time in the 40 as a plus. Its not Sam Shields speed but not bad. If Witt can coach him up I see the kind of cap friendly player that TT likes to keep. Perhaps as a gunner first and then as a CB when he is ready. I see him as a replacement for Goodson. Herb Waters (4.5, 40) is still too raw because of his switch from WR.

I don't see us keeping Datone Jones.

Damn.  Nice effort, PackerJoe.    

1) TT does not draft a CB high.  He instead dips into free agency to grab a starter on the outside.  

2) TT drafts a pass rusher in the first round.  He drafts skill position in the second round and  a CB in the third.   

3) He resigns Perry.  There is no replacement on this team for Perry, so hard to see TT letting him go.  

4) Either Tretter or Lang is signed, but don't see TT signing both.  No idea which one stays though - I can make a case for both.  

5) D Jones, Shields and Peppers don't come back.  

6) Cobb is released or restructured.  $12.75m cap hit next year does not match his production.  Only way he comes back is around $6m plus incentives based on production.  

7) Lacy is back on the cheap, with some big incentives based on playing time.  

8) Cook is resigned for ~$4m per year.  I don't see a big market for him, as he will fall into the "Rodgers made him" category.  

9) CMIII's contract does not get restructured and he starts playing more ILB, hoping he'll stay healthier.  OLB will be manned by part-time CMIII, Perry, Fackrell, Elliot and first round draft pick.  

10) Dom Capers enters 2017 as the defensive coordinator.  

Not sure about #6, restructure is an option but not sure about the $$ you present. I agree with the rest as very possible.

I remain angered and nothing outside of status quo happens.

they do manage to resign cook and lacy.  

Capers returns as DC

Cook is resigned to a 3 year deal

Lacy resigned to a one year incentive loaded deal

Lang  and Goode returns

Perry resigns

Starks and Shields don't return

In the draft TT goes pass rush and CB at the top of the draft.  He trades out of the first round and get multiple 2nd and 3rd picks.  He goes for quantity in this draft.

Free agency?  status quo with few signings

My biggest prediction is we will in about May wonder why again the Packers haven't signed many free agents.  And we will wait for the June cuts to sign a FA which wont happen.

I predict I will sit back and see what happens and not waste my time trying to discern what should happen as it won't make a hill of beans difference.

I will use PJ's template. 

Cut:

CB-Sam Shields

RB-James Starks

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Re-sign:

C JC Tretter – 4 years, 32 million, 12 million guaranteed, 6 million cap number in 2017

OG-TJ Lang – 3 years, 24 million, 12 million guaranteed, 5 million cap number in 2017

OLB-Nick Perry – 5 years, 45 million, 20 million guaranteed, 5 million cap number in 2017

CB-Micah Hyde - 4 years, 20 million, 8 million guaranteed, 4 million cap number in 2017

TE-Jared Cook – 4 years, 12 million, 5 million guaranteed, 2 million cap number in 2017

OLB-Datone Jones – 2 years, 8 million, 4 million guaranteed, 2 million cap number in 2017

RB-Eddie Lacy – 2 year, 10 million, 4 million guaranteed, 2 million cap number in 2017

LS-Brett Goode – 2 year, 2 million, 1 million cap number in 2017

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Tender the following players at minimum level:

OLB-Jayrone Elliott

OLB-Jordan Tripp

P-Jacob Schum

Also, tender all of the exclusive right free agents (Joe Thomas, Christian Ringo,  Joe Kerridge)

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Free agent signings:

None

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The following free agents would not be re-signed: Julius Peppers, Christine Michael, Don Barclay.

Cutting Starks and Shields would give us roughly 11.3 million in extra room on top of the expected 31.4 in cap room for a total of 42.7 in available cap space. Save roughly 6 million for the rookie pool, we would likely have 36.7 available. After the above moves the Packers would be spending 32.5 million on re-signings, leaving the team with 

Thompson tends to re-sign his own if they are interested. I expect him to use most of this years cap to keep these players in the fold. Tretter will be the starting Center, flanked by Lang, with Lindsley as the top backup at Center and Guard. Although I'm not a fan of Hyde starting, he does show the instincts and playmaking ability that we badly need in the backend of the defense. Perry showed flashes of being a really good pass rusher, if he wants to stay I think there will be a contract there for him. Cook sounds like he wants to be in GB and play for a winner, I doubt Thompson goes back to the time between Finley and Cook where Richard Rodgers was our best guy. Jones and Lacy will get some "prove it" deals, with a small investment, although Lacy's deal will be reflective of his production in years 1-3. I expect both will get their sh*t together and realize the real world money implications of not performing at a high level. Goode gets league minimum. 

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 Draft:

1 – Solomon Thomas/Pass Rusher/Stanford

2 – Budda Baker/DB/Washington

3 – Wayne Gallman/RB/Clemson

4 – Cole Hikutini/TE/Louisville

5 – Ryan Glasgow/DL/Michigan

6 – Corn Elder/CB/Miami

7 – Darius English/OLB/South Carolina

Thomas may go higher, but I've seen predictions that he goes anywhere from 17 to 45. He's a tough MF'er though and is the kind of relentless pass rusher we need for the future. I've talked about Baker before, I think he has the skills to be a top FS or even a NB. Gallman has the size they seem to like and is the kind of do-everything back that could succeed in this offense. Hikutini is an athlete in the mold of Cook, big and fast with good hands. Glasgow looks like a Dean Lowry clone, stout at the POA and willing to do the dirty work. Elder reminds me of Tramon, he's undersized but has the instincts, willingness, and speed to make big contributions. English is a project like Adrian Hubbard, he has a tall lean frame with a lot of athleticism, but hasn't put it together yet. 

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Projected 2017 roster:

QB – A. Rodgers, B. Hundley, J. Callahan

RB – T. Montgomery, E. Lacy, W. Gallman*

FB – A. Ripkowski 

WR – J. Nelson, R. Cobb, D. Adams, G. Allison, J. Janis

TE – J. Cook, R. Rodgers, C. Hikutini*

OL – D. Bakhtiari, B. Bulaga, TJ Lang, JC Tretter, C. Linsley, L. Taylor, J. Spriggs, K. Murphy

DL – M. Daniels, L. Guion, K. Clark, D. Lowry, C. Ringo, R. Glasgow*

OLB – C. Matthews, N. Perry, S. Thomas*, D. Jones, J. Elliott, K. Fackrell

ILB – J. Ryan, B. Martinez, J. Thomas

CB – L. Gunter, D. Randall, Q. Rollins, M. Hyde, C. Elder*, D. Goodson, J. Hawkins, M. Dorleant

S – M. Burnett, H. Clinton-Dix, B. Baker*, K. Brice

K – M. Crosby

P – J. Schum

LS – B. Goode

Solomon Thomas is a beast.  I can't imagine him falling.  If he does, that is a great pick.  

I think you have Hyde signing for too much money... but I'm fairly confident your numbers are probably spot on.  Like I said before, contracts are going to mess with peoples heads this summer.  

I do think Cook will sign for more.  I'm not sure the market expanded that much for him since last year, but he chose the right time for a one year contract.  

Hyde will be a weird one IMO. His stats are not similar to any CBs or even Safeties:

I know people hate to talk about Casey Hayward, but he's the closest comparison:

Hyde is basically the same in Tackles and INTs, but way ahead in sacks, but way behind in starts. Hayward got 3 years/15 mil with 6.8 guaranteed. Hyde gets slightly less per year and slightly less % guaranteed. 

Tdog posted:

I predict I will sit back and see what happens and not waste my time trying to discern what should happen as it won't make a hill of beans difference.

Excellent advice to all of the fine fans who borrow trouble  and soil themselves over things that may... or may not come to fruition.

Per WTMJ, the Packers have released RB James Starks. 

Some really good stuff here. I know Lacy has weight and injury issues but it seems that some team might give him a 2-3 year deal or if not I don't think his prove it contract will be as cheap as some might think. The guy is a hell of running back. 

Does anyone think Peppers would come back at like a vet minimum type deal for a year to see if he can get a ring. He hasn't announced his retirement I don't think and the Packers are probably as good a bet as any to still get him the ring?

I do not get the love for Datone Jones. I predict we DO NOT resign him and find a veteran CB  for the same money.

As far as draft picks, we go BPA mostly defense again.

Otherwise PJ's post makes sense.

packerboi posted:

Per WTMJ, the Packers have released RB James Starks. 

PackerPatrick posted:

I do not get the love for Datone Jones. I predict we DO NOT resign him and find a veteran CB  for the same money.

As far as draft picks, we go BPA mostly defense again.

Otherwise PJ's post makes sense.

I don't love Datone, but there is still physical potential there. It would be interesting to see what he does in year 2 of transition to Elephant End. He hasn't lived up to his draft slot, but he would be worth a couple extra years to see what he can do.

Jones showed plenty this year- he is not a smart football player. Physically you like his versatility. But I don't think the Packers coaches or front office liked the silly penalties, of which Jones had far too many. 

Calais Campbell is available. Lowery is a viable replacement at DE. They have Fackrell as a developmental player at OLB. Perhaps a speedy edge guy falls. But no way would I bring Jones back. 

Brownies release Tray-mon...has to be a better option than Gunter.

Tramon was slow before he left.

starks cut.

@PackersNotes 2h2 hours agoTed basically gave Starks a $3M going away present. He was on his last legs late in '15 season - before signing a 2-year, $6M deal.

Hindsight's always 20/20 (I highly doubt Ted would do that contract again), but all in all, Starks had a nice career for a 6th round pick. He ended up being healthier then it initially looked like he would be and managed to get a 7 year career as a RB while making some pretty good coin. Good for him.

Grave Digger posted:

 

 Draft:

1 – Solomon Thomas/Pass Rusher/Stanford

 

Thomas may go higher, but I've seen predictions that he goes anywhere from 17 to 45.  

 

Thomas

#3 on CBS Sports top prospect list

tied for 3rd highest grade overall at NFL.com

#4 at the Great Blue North Report

#5 at ESPN (Scouts INC)

I think Jones has shown everything he has.  He reminds me of Mike Neal, in that he never really panned out as a d-lineman so to salvage something from a high pick, they moved him to "elephant" where he was serviceable.  But not sure what else he has to show.  Time to move on, for both sides.  

I forgot about Hyde.  He definitely resigns but no idea how much.  If I had to bet, I'd say $15m over 4 years.  He's not a starter and has never been one (outside of injuries), so hard to imagine him getting over $4m per year.  

The area where I could see Thomas getting knocked is that his pro position is a little hard to figure out. At 6'3" 270 lbs he's not quite lean enough to be an OLB, not speedy enough to be a RDE in a 43, and not bulky/stout enough to be an every down NFL interior player. CBS compared him to Aaron Donald and I don't see it, I see him as more impactful Trent Murphy IMO. Who knows though, he may be a top 15 player and I may be dead wrong. 

Missouri DE Charles Harris is another guy I think is possible. He's been stuck on crappy Mizzou teams the last couple years and still has had success despite being the focus of offenses.

And when Mike Neal's rookie contract ran out....Ted signed him for two more years.

I'd prefer to see Jones gone but Ted loves his first round picks.  Jones might be the best example ever of a "close but no cigar" type player.  It seems nearly impossible that a player could have 31 1/2 pressures (McGinn's count) and only total 1 sack.  The 31 1/2 pressures were a 75% improvement over his previous season-high.  Ted could very well see his first rounder fulfilling his promise and another 31 1/2 pressures turning into 7 sacks in 2018.  And if that happens, only 2 million in guaranteed money would be a bargain.  I don't think Jones will get any better, but if history has taught us anything it is that Ted will give his top draft picks a benefit of a doubt and continue to stick with them. 

Wow Jones had 31 1/2 pressures this year?  Guess I'm wrong, I just don't remember Jones having that kind of impact this year.  Maybe they do bring him back.  

Why wouldn't he give them a try if it's a low investment? Jones has talent and has only been at OLB for 1 year, maybe another offseason of changing his body and focusing more on OLB will help him improve. I didn't see a consistent impact from him, but I saw more impact in 2016 than the previous 3 years. Could be trending up and if you can get an ascending player for cheap then that's a good move!

If Solomon Thomas is available at 29 then lap falling has a new poster boy. 

Lambeau Lobo posted:

Damn.  Nice effort, PackerJoe.    

not really - he didn't sign a FA

PackFoo posted:

Brownies release Tray-mon...has to be a better option than Gunter.

Browns are likely to have a top flight defense next year. Doesn't say much for Traymon.

Packers just released Sam Shields. 

And he's bitter AF

The "at least let me retire" is interesting. Is he suggesting that was an option he presented?

With his concussion history, no team in their right mind will touch him. Best of luck to Sam, he was a very good Packer. I hope he managed his money carefully.

Concussion history played a part for sure. Not to mention a recent case of "Reefer Madness".

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