I would say it's probably a combination of his concussions and the money. If reefer was an issue with this team than Letroy Guion would be gone. This organization has been firm that they won't put players with serious long term issues on the field...plus they don't want to be on the hook for all 11 million if his concussion costs him another whole season.
Good player, great Packer. Wish him well. Hope he DOESN'T play again and that he takes care of his brain!
PackFoo posted:And he's bitter AF
He said he wants to keep playing, why does he think they won't let him retire from the Packers? If he wants to a retire a Packers then I guarantee they would allow that. Not sure why he takes it so personally, if his agent hadn't prepared him for this then he has a sh*tty agent.
I see a guy trying to come to grips with the fact that his career is over and he really doesn't want it to end like this. His "at least let me retire from the Pack" tells me he didn't ask if that was a possibility before they released him. It is a business and if you don't make your wishes known, don't complain when they aren't fulfilled.
With regard to the reefer...there have been some rumblings the amount he had points to more than just personal use.
There may be some legal proceedings we are not privy to.
Also, the concussions are enough to justify the Packers cutting bait.
He needs to retire and make sure that he can live a happy and healthy life. He was a great Packer and I thank him for the time he was able to give the team but it was time to make the decision for him if he doesn't decide to retire.
PackFoo posted:With regard to the reefer...there have been some rumblings the amount he had points to more than just personal use.
There may be some legal proceedings we are not privy to.
Also, the concussions are enough to justify the Packers cutting bait.
When your importing an illegal substance, it makes sense to get a decent quantity so you don't have to incur the risk of shipping as often.
If we are talking about pounds, ok, but that article said a couple jars. This is consistent with personal use and since it's coming from CO, it's probably just different strains and that is why it's separated. If it were coming from Mexico, then I might suspect distribution.
I think they released him because he uses too many #.
Ok, so now we have some wiggle room as far as the cap. So on the O-line I boldly predict we sign both Lang and Tretter, not resign Barkley. Spriggs remains backup at tackles and guard. Tretter is IMHO the better center and can fill in elsewhere. We resign Cook the better blocker and tight end. Our line is what keeps Aaron hot.
On defense, Jones is gone and we resign Elliot. I would not be surprised if we resign Phat Eddie. I doubt we try to resign Peppers.
I see a couple of FA signings at CB and D-line because of the loss of Pennell and Shields.
Other needs will be addressed in the draft but only by BPA.
I also predict we carry another 8 million in needless cap room into next year once again.
So I guess that if the NFL cap goes up, the actual cash the Packers have on hand to pay the players goes up.
Yes. As does everyone else's.
Sadly, either no one close to Sam is reminding him that still having concussion symptoms months and months after the initial injury should be scaring the **** out of him ...or they have and he just doesn't care.
He earned a good deal of money playing in the NFL. He can still walk and talk. Dude, be blessed and walk away.
It's widely known in the NFL if the Packers determine a players career is done due to injury, then no other team will touch them either. Nick Collins, Jermike, Terrence Murphy, etc all begged their agents to find them another team. No team would over rule the Packers medical staff. Pretty sure the same will apply with Sam.
Do we know how he was informed? Strikes me as possible that Ted sent him a fax he never received.
One of the reasons Shields didn't get drafted was that he was a very raw project. The other reason was that he got arrested for weed possession the month before the draft. I doubt we are talking about a Charles Woodson-level intellect here. As someone else said, I hope he's managed his money well.
http://archive.jsonline.com/sp...ackers/92026479.html
Shields, 5 feet 10Â― inches and 184 pounds, ran the 40-yard dash in 4.31 seconds at pro day in March. He also had a 39-inch vertical jump, an 11-foot 1-inch broad jump and 15 reps on the bench press, all numbers befitting a mid- to late-round selection.
Shields' chances to be drafted were damaged significantly in March when he was arrested and charged with misdemeanor possession of marijuana.
The Packers did Shields a favor by releasing him. If they let him retire then the Packers would still retain his rights and he wouldn't be able to sign with another team should another team be interested. By releasing him, they let Sam test the waters himself to see if another team wants to give him a shot.
DH13 posted:Yes. As does everyone else's.
Interesting, the cap goes up and now they have more money in the bank.
With regard to the reefer...there have been some rumblings the amount he had points to more than just personal use.
Distribution shouldn't be illegal, either.
It was misdemeanor possession with a maximum six month jail term and no indication of anything other than personal use. The fact that Sam apparently never left the protocol after all this time would seem to indicate that his football playing days are likely over.
GBFanForLife posted:DH13 posted:Yes. As does everyone else's.
Interesting, the cap goes up and now they have more money in the bank.
The increase of the cap comes from the revenue-sharing 'pool', so each team gets the same amount of money. For instance, the cap for 2016 was roughly $155M. The projected cap for 2017 is $168M. Each team will receive the additional $13M from the league.
GBFanForLife posted:Interesting, the cap goes up and now they have more money in the bank.
This extra $13M freed up by Shields and Starks is the biggest reason why I could see slightly more activity in FA this year. Cuts like these are pretty rare with Ted, so his 5-year plan almost surely assumed this money was spoken for in 2017.
Perhaps it just means he resigns more of his own outgoing players than he planned on, but this wiggle room will definitely come into play somehow.
The next rookie free agent signing and I'm totally quoting the above post as evidence.
Ok, now I wonder about the inflated contracts of Matthews and Cobb. How much longer are we willing to carry that number? My next bold prediction is that one of those two contracts is addressed.
After all, for TT its all about the cap.
The cap is going up by over 10 million this year, those "inflated" contracts are likely not even on Ted's radar right now
10 million can buy 15 UDFA's... just saying
Seriously, even a cap friendly "extension" would free up enough $ for one impact FA.
Fedya posted:With regard to the reefer...there have been some rumblings the amount he had points to more than just personal use.
Distribution shouldn't be illegal, either.
Agree. It's amazing to me that if was sitting on his sofa drinking 12 cans of beer every night until he passed out, no one would even report it, but if he gets caught with some weed it reflects poor judgement.
And don't even get me started on shooting up with enough painkillers to kill a horse relative to smoking weed.
Hereâs what I feel is a likely scenario.
Perry: Gone â Someone will make him a big offer with the dearth of pass rushers that TT wonât meet, though heâll have a solid offer from Green Bay also.
Jones: Back â Heâll come back for a decent (some fans will say too big) contract for one year, maybe two, looking to up his stats to cash in on the market, ala Perry. He also provides depth while young guys develop.
Hyde: Gone â someone will feel heâs a starter and pay him as such.
Tretter: Back â Heâs young, heâs the better OC and heâs versatile. Heâll get what some fans think is a âbigâ contract.
Lang: Gone â Unless they donât like what they see in him, Trent Murphy, Don Barclay and a mid-late draft pick will fight it out for his spot.
Barclay: Back â Suckitude aside. heâs young, cheap and knows the system. Thatâs not to say heâs a roster lock, but heâll have a chance to compete again next summer, if not fall.
Peppers: Gone â Itâs been a nice run. Stay in shape and donât turn off your phone before New Yearâs because âdonât call us, weâll call youâ could be in play.
Lacy: Back â Heâll get a solid contract (some fans will complain big) offer with some incentives that could make it very nice.
Cook: Back â Heâll get a very nice, three-year deal.
Draft: Round 1 â Gareon Conley CB â Ohio State if heâs there, otherwise a pass rusher like Takkarist McKinley, TJ Watt, Ryan Anderson, Tim Williams or maybe Hassan Reddick. A slight trade back might be in play. Wild Card â Cooper Kupp. I admit, a Reddick/Matthews duo would be intriguing and versatile.
I think heâll take a long look at Fabian Moreau from UCLA in the second/third if Conley is gone. If Conley is there and one of the pass rushers fall, I could see TT maybe doing a trade up in the second.
I also think heâll draft a pass catcher before an OG.
chickenboy posted:Do we know how he was informed? Strikes me as possible that Ted sent him a fax he never received.
We have a word for that here at work - it is "invisafax" - a fax someone said they sent you but you never got.
Not really sure how the team can go into next year without getting a proven player at CB. Can't be sure about either Rollins or Randall and it's awfully risky to use the draft to fill the present gaping hole. My guess is he gets a vet and also uses a mid-round pick on the position.
Here's another way to look at the off-season. Who are the team members that if they got hurt couldn't be replaced by a league average guy without costing us wins?
Group 1. There's obviously one guy that if he got hurt, for all intents and purposes the season would be over and that's Rodgers. Losing him for the year would be a 6-8 game swing.
Group 2. The next group of guys are difference makers. They'll make plays (or prevent other guys from making big plays) that will change games consistently. This could be because of talent as well as the position that they play. This group is Bakhtiari, Jordy Nelson, a healthy CM3, Mike Daniels, and maybe the two safeties. Sam Shields was probably in that group as well. Bulaga's probably a borderline case. All of these guys are signed.
Group 3. There's a big group that are solid football players, but for the most part there are a multitude of guys around the league you could replace them with without losing much. This is also based on what position they play. These are guys like Cobb, Cook (more on that below), D. Adams, Micah Hyde, Datone Jones, Nick Perry, etc. It's nice to have these guys, but someone will overpay them thinking they can be Group 2 guys. Lang is a great guard, but how often does a great guard make a difference relative to an average guard? Sitton is probably a lot better than Lane Taylor, but did letting Sitton go cost us anything in terms of wins/losses? Maybe on a run-first team like Dallas, but with Rodgers, the guards just have to make sure they can't be bull rushed into the pocket.
Group 4. These guys are bad enough to lose you games or constrain your game plan so much they have a domino effect on the rest of the team. They should not be in their current roles (or are playing injured and can't function at the level they should) RichRod as your #1 TE does this because of his lack of speed to threaten a defense. Cook isn't a group 2 guy, but he's so much better than RichRod it improved everything when he played. Our CBs this year were clearly group 4 guys. Our ILBs were borderline Group 3/4 guys. Our RB situation got to this point this year (Monty bailed them out to some degree).
What's the difference between New England and Green Bay? They both basically have one guy in Group 1 and Rodgers is better than Brady. Put Brady on the Packers and they are probably a 7-9/8-8 type team. They'd still be a borderline playoff contender, but Brady can't throw guys open like Rodgers. Put Rodgers on the Patriots and there is no dropoff. Both teams have a similar number of Group 2 guys that they don't overpay for. I'd argue the difference is that the Patriots do a better job of getting rid of Group 4 type guys. Belichick will cut guys mid-season and trade for stopgaps to try to make sure that he doesn't have players that lose games for him. TT/MM are more likely to stick with guys longer because of the draft and develop philosophy. Belichick can be pretty ruthless when it comes to guys that are Group 2 and 3 guys. TT did this with Sitton who was still a good player, but wasn't worth the big money relative to a replacement level player. Belichick gets rid of guys like Sitton all the time. Jamie Collins this year - mid-year. Ty Law years ago. Lawyor Milloy after a Super Bowl win years ago.
Belichick wins as a GM because he is one of top head coaches of all time and he isn't afraid to cut popular players or shuffle the bottom part of his roster. He also signs other teams castoffs at bargain prices to provide band-aids to weak spots on his roster.
FB.
Group 1. There's obviously one guy that if he got hurt, for all intents and purposes the season would be over and that's Rodgers. Losing him for the year would be a 6-8 game swing.
Didn't Bad Bob say the Packers could go 11-5 without Rodgers?
Fedya posted:Group 1. There's obviously one guy that if he got hurt, for all intents and purposes the season would be over and that's Rodgers. Losing him for the year would be a 6-8 game swing.
Didn't Bad Bob say the Packers could go 11-5 without Rodgers?
Dick?
Fedya posted:Group 1. There's obviously one guy that if he got hurt, for all intents and purposes the season would be over and that's Rodgers. Losing him for the year would be a 6-8 game swing.
Didn't Bad Bob say the Packers could go 11-5 without Rodgers?
I remember reading that and almost choking on my coffee. The Packers might have been the most one dimensional team ever to make a conference championship game. Their defense was helpless against any team with an experienced QB and a passing attack other than Russell Wilson and Eli Manning (and the Giants WRs dropped a bunch of passes while running wide open in the first quarter of the playoff game that would have changed the whole nature of that game). They had no real running backs.
Couldn't stop the pass
Adequate against stopping the run
Couldn't run
On page 1 I had my prediction of what Thompson will do this off-season.
This post is how Iâd approach the off-season if I was in Thompsonâs chair.
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Cut:
CB-Sam Shields
RB-James Starks
CB-Demetri Goodson
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Re-sign:
OG-T.J. Lang â 3 years, 21 million, 8.5 million guaranteed, 4 million cap number in 2017
3 million dollar signing bonus, 3 million base in 2017 (all guaranteed), 7 million base in 2018 (2.5 million guaranteed), 8 million base in 2019
TE-Jared Cook â 3 years, 20.25 million, 10 million guaranteed, 4.5 million cap number in 2017
3.75 million dollar signing bonus, 3.25 million base in 2017 (all guaranteed), 6 million base in 2018 (3 million guaranteed), 7.25 million base in 2019
OLB-Julius Peppers â 2 years, 9 million, 4 million guaranteed, 3.5 million cap number in 2017
1 million dollar signing bonus, 3 million base in 2017 (all guaranteed), 5 million base in 2018
LS-Brett Goode â 1 year, 0.9 million
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Tender the following players at minimum level:
OLB-Jayrone Elliott
ILB-Joe Thomas
P-Jacob Schum
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Also, tender all the exclusive right free agents.
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Free agent signings:
CB-A.J. Bouye â 5 years, 65 million, 27.5 million guaranteed, 7.5 million cap number in 2017
12.5 million dollar signing bonus, 5 million base in 2017 (all guaranteed), 10 million base in 2018 (all guaranteed), 11 million base in 2019, 12.5 million base in 2020, 14 million base in 2021
RB-Darren McFadden â 1 year, 1.5 million, no guaranteed money
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The following free agents would not be re-signed: Nick Perry, Don Barclay, Datone Jones, Micah Hyde, J.C. Tretter, Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael. Jordan Tripp is a restricted free agent who would not be tendered.
After the above moves the Packers would have ~18.4 million of available cap space, then subtract another 5 million for the rookie class and it leaves them with a reasonable ~13.4 million in cap space entering the 2017 season.
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After reviewing some commentary from around the web (such as McGinn, Pro Football Focus, etc.), T.J. Lang became my #1 priority re-sign. Lane Taylor gets a passable grade at LG but itâs questionable if he even carries an average grade at the position. Subtracting Lang out of the mix just makes the interior of the offensive line too big of a question mark. Spriggs looks like he has zero chance of playing guard and McGinn indicated the team seems to like Murphy more at tackle. It seems the coaches like Tretter much more at center than anywhere else so plugging him in at RG may not be the best move. Lang is risky because heâs shown some signs of breaking down, but heâs such a good player and it sounds like he might be willing to come back to Green Bay for a bit less than what he could demand on the market. 3 years with 8.5 million guaranteed seems like an offer thatâs fair for both sides. Before starting this the plan was to let Peppers go and maybe look to sign someone like Demarcus Ware to a 1 year deal. But the more reading I did, it really seems that Peppers outperformed all the other OLBâs that will be âreasonably pricedâ on the free agent market. Coming up with an appropriate contract for Peppers is a complete unknown because there arenât too many comparables. How many 37-year-old OLBs are out there that can still play pretty well? If another team comes up with a 2 year, 15-million-dollar deal with 7 million in guarantees then Iâm out. I guess weâll see what happens. But after allowing Perry to walk and throwing all that money (and more) at Bouye, I didnât feel comfortable with having the OLB group being Matthews, a first round pick and a bunch of other unproven guys. Iâll be really interested to see what kind of a contract Jared Cook gets. Good chance Cookâs contract numbers are high but they are numbers Iâm comfortable with.
A.J. BouyeâĶit could be a crazy move because he could be a one year wonder. But the word was out on him earlier so I paid particular attention to him when the Texans played the Packers and he looked good. Rodgers threw at him a couple times early but not much more after that. Overall his performance was so good this season and when his skills, size and age are all factored in I felt better about throwing big money at him rather than someone like Nick Perry or Chandler Jones. I think Bouye will get big numbers on the market, it will be interesting to see what kind of deal he eventually signs. I have no particular love for McFadden, but heâs still fairly young, wasnât used that much in game situations last year (elbow injury) and isnât that far removed from a 1000-yard season. Heâll be cheap and will provide decent enough veteran depth at running back.
As far as players leaving, this was a defensive housecleaning except for Peppers who I also originally intended to let go prior to reviewing what would be available on the market and the 2016 evaluations/grades for players. No way to bring Perry back after throwing the huge contract at Bouye. I totally disagree with the thought that Tretter is better than Linsley, Iâd rather have Linsley and with him at center Iâm not that interesting in bringing Tretter back. Eddie Lacy is a guy Iâm done with. Could he come back and have a big year in 2017? Sure. But I am done with him. Thompson put all those RB eggs in the Lacy/Starks basket last year and struck out big time. I have no interest in fat, injury-prone running backs and even though McFadden isnât a world-beater by any means Iâd rather take a chance on him. Hyde was a tough decision. I love his versatility and the good punt return ability. But I didnât want to stress the salary cap situation and sinking another 4-5 million on him would have been pushing it further than I wanted to go.
As far as impact on future compensatory picks. The Bouye signing would likely cancel out the loss of Perry. Iâm thinking Perry would sign with another team at the dollar level that would return a third-round pick (maybe a fourth), so signing Bouye would take that third rounder out of the mix. The McFadden money is low and probably would cancel out the loss of Datone Jones (Iâm assuming there would be a modest market for Jones). The lowest projected compensatory pick in the 2016 was for the loss of a ~1.9 million-dollar contract so Lacy would have to get more than that on the market for the Packers to get any type of compensation for him. That leaves Tretter and Hyde, depending on the deals they would probably bring back either fifth or sixth round picks for Green Bay. Iâll split the difference and guess that after this off-season activity the Packers would end up getting a fifth-round compensatory pick and a sixth-round compensatory pick in the 2018 draft.
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Draft:
Trade down: Carolina gets first round pick (#29 overall) and third round pick (~91 overall), Packers get second round pick (#40 overall), third round pick (~72 overall), fifth round pick (~147 overall) and 2018 sixth round pick. There are 3 tackles that grade far ahead of the rest of the group (Ramczyk, Cam Robinson and Garrett Bolles). Ramczyk will be the first one gone but Robinson and Bolles are projected in the #25-#35 area). Neither will make it to Carolinaâs second pick so they move up to #29 to select one of the tackles. Tackle is their #1 need but they probably wonât take one in the first because Ramczyk may be good but heâs not top 10 overall good.
2 (from Carolina) â Gareon Conley/CB/Ohio State
2 â Chris Wormley/DE/Michigan
3 (from Carolina) â Tarell Basham/OLB/Ohio
4 â Carlos Henderson/WR/Louisiana Tech
5 (from Carolina) â Kareem Hunt/RB/Toledo
5 â Cole Hikutini/TE/Louisville
5 (compensatory) â J.J. Dielman/OG/Utah
6 â Harvey Langi/ILB/Brigham Young
7 â Wes Lunt/QB/Illinois
I felt no need to make a high cornerback pick after the big investment in Bouye, if anything felt the need to go OLB, but I just like the cornerbacks better than the outside linebackers in the late first round through mid-second round area. I figure Takkarist McKinley will be gone. Tim Williamsâ character concerns me. Charles Harrisâ size concerns me. T.J Wattâs knees concern me. I like Haason Reddick more as an inside linebacker and had him under strong consideration at #29 (will be gone by #40 unless he tanks it during workouts). In the end, there were just so many attractive size/speed cornerbacks that I went with the one that figures to grade the highest at #40 right now, Gareon Conley. But all the cornerback rankings will get shuffled around after the combine because with Conley, Quincy Wilson, Cordrea Tankersley, Chidobe Aeuzie (and maybe Rasul Douglas if he runs fast enough) there are a bunch of big corners that could go anywhere from late first to early third. OLB still not looking that great at the end of round two, so I looked to get pass-rush from the defensive line rather than linebacker. I saw Michigan three times this year and Wormley looked good with the potential to get much better. He wonât be a 10-sack guy but could be a pocket collapser and contribute five to seven sacks per season. With Daniels at the three, Clark on the nose and Wormley at the fiveâĶthat could be a good 3-4 DL pass-rush group. I would feel pretty good about the DE unit with the Wormley/Lowry combination. Tarell Basham was a 259-pound college defensive end that would have to transition to OLB. He had 11.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss and Mike Sherman would be certain to point out his 10 3/8 inch hands. Carlos Henderson would be a value pick as a project wide receiver and kickoff return specialist. He averaged 18.7 yards per catch with 19 touchdowns and 32.2 yards per kickoff return with 2 touchdowns in 2016. Ourlads had Kareem Hunt as the #1 senior running back entering the season. He isnât real big (5-10 Â―, 208 pounds) and isnât a home run hitter, but is pretty good both as a runner and pass-catcher. Cole Hikutini is a pass-catching tight end that canât block a lick. J.J. Dielman has college experience at tackle and center. I doubt if heâs an NFL starter but could fill multiple spots along the line as a backup (couldnât be worse than Spriggs was this year). Probably a poor manâs J.C. Tretter. Langi is a good-sized project ILB. I had ILB in the top 3 on the needs lists and would have loved to have taken one earlier. I really like Luntâs tools. The draftniks will be down on him because he canât move at all but Iâd rather have a pocket QB with a decent combination of arm-strength and accuracy rather than having a runner that canât hit the broad side of a barn. Heâd get a chance knock Callahan off the roster and earn a spot on the 53.
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2017 roster candidates:
QB â A. Rodgers, B. Hundley, Wes Lunt (rookie), J. Callahan
RB â T. Montgomery, Darren McFadden, Kareem Hunt (rookie), J. Crockett, D. Jackson
FB â A. Ripkowski, J. Kerridge
WR â J. Nelson, R. Cobb, D. Adams, G. Allison, Carlos Henderson (rookie), J. Janis, T. Davis
TE â J. Cook, R. Rodgers, Cole Hikutini (rookie)
OL â D. Bakhtiari, B. Bulaga, T.J. Lang, C. Linsley, L. Taylor, J. Spriggs, JJ Dielman (rookie), K. Murphy, L. Patrick
DL â M. Daniels, L. Guion, K. Clark, Chris Wormley (rookie), D. Lowry, B. Price, C. Ringo
OLB â C. Matthews, J. Peppers, Tarell Basham(rookie), J. Elliott, K. Fackrell, R. Gilbert
ILB â J. Ryan, B. Martinez, J. Thomas, Harvey Langi (rookie)
CB â A.J. Bouye, Gareon Conley (rookie), D. Randall, Q. Rollins, L. Gunter, M. Dorleant, J. Hawkins, H. Waters
S â M. Burnett, H. Clinton-Dix, K. Brice, M. Evans
K â M. Crosby
P â J. Schum
LS â B. Goode
Are you sure you want to cut Shields and Starks?
I'm not sure our GM would do that
You lost me at McGinn.
Everyone seems to assume AJ Bouye will be a UFA, why would the Texans not want to lock down a star CB? If his own team doesn't want to lock him down long term, why would we? I'm not familiar with the Texans cap situation, but even if they're tight against the cap surely they could make room to re-sign him. That's part of the hesitation I always have with UFA's because I know the reason GB let's guys walk.
Texans will only have about 20 million dollars in cap space after rookies. They put themselves in a tight situation with the Osweiler contract, and they can't dump him because it would take an additional 6 million dollars of cap space away. There has been talk they could cut Johnathan Joseph to free up space for Bouye. Joseph is probably past his prime but is still a very solid player and IMO almost a complete guarantee that Thompson would go after him if he was cut (I sure would). The Texans also have Kareem Jackson and Kevin Johnson at corner and both of those guys had solid seasons. It would be pretty reasonable for them to keep Joseph, Jackson and Johnson and let Bouye walk considering he's only had one great year.
Pretty pathetic that the Texans had four cornerbacks that were better than anybody the Packers had at the position last year.
PackerJoe posted:Texans will only have about 20 million dollars in cap space after rookies. They put themselves in a tight situation with the Osweiler contract, and they can't dump him because it would take an additional 6 million dollars of cap space away. There has been talk they could cut Johnathan Joseph to free up space for Bouye. Joseph is probably past his prime but is still a very solid player and IMO almost a complete guarantee that Thompson would go after him if he was cut (I sure would). The Texans also have Kareem Jackson and Kevin Johnson at corner and both of those guys had solid seasons. It would be pretty reasonable for them to keep Joseph, Jackson and Johnson and let Bouye walk considering he's only had one great year.
Pretty pathetic that the Texans had four cornerbacks that were better than anybody the Packers had at the position last year.
Texans front D was stout - but the secondary was unimpressive in the divisional round. I never saw them once turn and look for the ball - if they had, there were a few Brady picks to get. Why are people so high on Bouye? Is it just a fun name everyone want's on their team?
GBFanForLife posted:You lost me at McGinn.
You got further than I did.
PackerJoe posted:On page 1 I had my prediction of what Thompson will do this off-season.
This post is how Iâd approach the off-season if I was in Thompsonâs chair.
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Cut:
CB-Sam Shields
RB-James Starks
CB-Demetri Goodson
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Re-sign:
OG-T.J. Lang â 3 years, 21 million, 8.5 million guaranteed, 4 million cap number in 2017
3 million dollar signing bonus, 3 million base in 2017 (all guaranteed), 7 million base in 2018 (2.5 million guaranteed), 8 million base in 2019
TE-Jared Cook â 3 years, 20.25 million, 10 million guaranteed, 4.5 million cap number in 2017
3.75 million dollar signing bonus, 3.25 million base in 2017 (all guaranteed), 6 million base in 2018 (3 million guaranteed), 7.25 million base in 2019
OLB-Julius Peppers â 2 years, 9 million, 4 million guaranteed, 3.5 million cap number in 2017
1 million dollar signing bonus, 3 million base in 2017 (all guaranteed), 5 million base in 2018
LS-Brett Goode â 1 year, 0.9 million
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Tender the following players at minimum level:
OLB-Jayrone Elliott
ILB-Joe Thomas
P-Jacob Schum
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Also, tender all the exclusive right free agents.
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Free agent signings:
CB-A.J. Bouye â 5 years, 65 million, 27.5 million guaranteed, 7.5 million cap number in 2017
12.5 million dollar signing bonus, 5 million base in 2017 (all guaranteed), 10 million base in 2018 (all guaranteed), 11 million base in 2019, 12.5 million base in 2020, 14 million base in 2021
RB-Darren McFadden â 1 year, 1.5 million, no guaranteed money
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The following free agents would not be re-signed: Nick Perry, Don Barclay, Datone Jones, Micah Hyde, J.C. Tretter, Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael. Jordan Tripp is a restricted free agent who would not be tendered.
After the above moves the Packers would have ~18.4 million of available cap space, then subtract another 5 million for the rookie class and it leaves them with a reasonable ~13.4 million in cap space entering the 2017 season.
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After reviewing some commentary from around the web (such as McGinn, Pro Football Focus, etc.), T.J. Lang became my #1 priority re-sign. Lane Taylor gets a passable grade at LG but itâs questionable if he even carries an average grade at the position. Subtracting Lang out of the mix just makes the interior of the offensive line too big of a question mark. Spriggs looks like he has zero chance of playing guard and McGinn indicated the team seems to like Murphy more at tackle. It seems the coaches like Tretter much more at center than anywhere else so plugging him in at RG may not be the best move. Lang is risky because heâs shown some signs of breaking down, but heâs such a good player and it sounds like he might be willing to come back to Green Bay for a bit less than what he could demand on the market. 3 years with 8.5 million guaranteed seems like an offer thatâs fair for both sides. Before starting this the plan was to let Peppers go and maybe look to sign someone like Demarcus Ware to a 1 year deal. But the more reading I did, it really seems that Peppers outperformed all the other OLBâs that will be âreasonably pricedâ on the free agent market. Coming up with an appropriate contract for Peppers is a complete unknown because there arenât too many comparables. How many 37-year-old OLBs are out there that can still play pretty well? If another team comes up with a 2 year, 15-million-dollar deal with 7 million in guarantees then Iâm out. I guess weâll see what happens. But after allowing Perry to walk and throwing all that money (and more) at Bouye, I didnât feel comfortable with having the OLB group being Matthews, a first round pick and a bunch of other unproven guys. Iâll be really interested to see what kind of a contract Jared Cook gets. Good chance Cookâs contract numbers are high but they are numbers Iâm comfortable with.
A.J. BouyeâĶit could be a crazy move because he could be a one year wonder. But the word was out on him earlier so I paid particular attention to him when the Texans played the Packers and he looked good. Rodgers threw at him a couple times early but not much more after that. Overall his performance was so good this season and when his skills, size and age are all factored in I felt better about throwing big money at him rather than someone like Nick Perry or Chandler Jones. I think Bouye will get big numbers on the market, it will be interesting to see what kind of deal he eventually signs. I have no particular love for McFadden, but heâs still fairly young, wasnât used that much in game situations last year (elbow injury) and isnât that far removed from a 1000-yard season. Heâll be cheap and will provide decent enough veteran depth at running back.
As far as players leaving, this was a defensive housecleaning except for Peppers who I also originally intended to let go prior to reviewing what would be available on the market and the 2016 evaluations/grades for players. No way to bring Perry back after throwing the huge contract at Bouye. I totally disagree with the thought that Tretter is better than Linsley, Iâd rather have Linsley and with him at center Iâm not that interesting in bringing Tretter back. Eddie Lacy is a guy Iâm done with. Could he come back and have a big year in 2017? Sure. But I am done with him. Thompson put all those RB eggs in the Lacy/Starks basket last year and struck out big time. I have no interest in fat, injury-prone running backs and even though McFadden isnât a world-beater by any means Iâd rather take a chance on him. Hyde was a tough decision. I love his versatility and the good punt return ability. But I didnât want to stress the salary cap situation and sinking another 4-5 million on him would have been pushing it further than I wanted to go.
As far as impact on future compensatory picks. The Bouye signing would likely cancel out the loss of Perry. Iâm thinking Perry would sign with another team at the dollar level that would return a third-round pick (maybe a fourth), so signing Bouye would take that third rounder out of the mix. The McFadden money is low and probably would cancel out the loss of Datone Jones (Iâm assuming there would be a modest market for Jones). The lowest projected compensatory pick in the 2016 was for the loss of a ~1.9 million-dollar contract so Lacy would have to get more than that on the market for the Packers to get any type of compensation for him. That leaves Tretter and Hyde, depending on the deals they would probably bring back either fifth or sixth round picks for Green Bay. Iâll split the difference and guess that after this off-season activity the Packers would end up getting a fifth-round compensatory pick and a sixth-round compensatory pick in the 2018 draft.
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Draft:
Trade down: Carolina gets first round pick (#29 overall) and third round pick (~91 overall), Packers get second round pick (#40 overall), third round pick (~72 overall), fifth round pick (~147 overall) and 2018 sixth round pick. There are 3 tackles that grade far ahead of the rest of the group (Ramczyk, Cam Robinson and Garrett Bolles). Ramczyk will be the first one gone but Robinson and Bolles are projected in the #25-#35 area). Neither will make it to Carolinaâs second pick so they move up to #29 to select one of the tackles. Tackle is their #1 need but they probably wonât take one in the first because Ramczyk may be good but heâs not top 10 overall good.
2 (from Carolina) â Gareon Conley/CB/Ohio State
2 â Chris Wormley/DE/Michigan
3 (from Carolina) â Tarell Basham/OLB/Ohio
4 â Carlos Henderson/WR/Louisiana Tech
5 (from Carolina) â Kareem Hunt/RB/Toledo
5 â Cole Hikutini/TE/Louisville
5 (compensatory) â J.J. Dielman/OG/Utah
6 â Harvey Langi/ILB/Brigham Young
7 â Wes Lunt/QB/Illinois
I felt no need to make a high cornerback pick after the big investment in Bouye, if anything felt the need to go OLB, but I just like the cornerbacks better than the outside linebackers in the late first round through mid-second round area. I figure Takkarist McKinley will be gone. Tim Williamsâ character concerns me. Charles Harrisâ size concerns me. T.J Wattâs knees concern me. I like Haason Reddick more as an inside linebacker and had him under strong consideration at #29 (will be gone by #40 unless he tanks it during workouts). In the end, there were just so many attractive size/speed cornerbacks that I went with the one that figures to grade the highest at #40 right now, Gareon Conley. But all the cornerback rankings will get shuffled around after the combine because with Conley, Quincy Wilson, Cordrea Tankersley, Chidobe Aeuzie (and maybe Rasul Douglas if he runs fast enough) there are a bunch of big corners that could go anywhere from late first to early third. OLB still not looking that great at the end of round two, so I looked to get pass-rush from the defensive line rather than linebacker. I saw Michigan three times this year and Wormley looked good with the potential to get much better. He wonât be a 10-sack guy but could be a pocket collapser and contribute five to seven sacks per season. With Daniels at the three, Clark on the nose and Wormley at the fiveâĶthat could be a good 3-4 DL pass-rush group. I would feel pretty good about the DE unit with the Wormley/Lowry combination. Tarell Basham was a 259-pound college defensive end that would have to transition to OLB. He had 11.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss and Mike Sherman would be certain to point out his 10 3/8 inch hands. Carlos Henderson would be a value pick as a project wide receiver and kickoff return specialist. He averaged 18.7 yards per catch with 19 touchdowns and 32.2 yards per kickoff return with 2 touchdowns in 2016. Ourlads had Kareem Hunt as the #1 senior running back entering the season. He isnât real big (5-10 Â―, 208 pounds) and isnât a home run hitter, but is pretty good both as a runner and pass-catcher. Cole Hikutini is a pass-catching tight end that canât block a lick. J.J. Dielman has college experience at tackle and center. I doubt if heâs an NFL starter but could fill multiple spots along the line as a backup (couldnât be worse than Spriggs was this year). Probably a poor manâs J.C. Tretter. Langi is a good-sized project ILB. I had ILB in the top 3 on the needs lists and would have loved to have taken one earlier. I really like Luntâs tools. The draftniks will be down on him because he canât move at all but Iâd rather have a pocket QB with a decent combination of arm-strength and accuracy rather than having a runner that canât hit the broad side of a barn. Heâd get a chance knock Callahan off the roster and earn a spot on the 53.
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2017 roster candidates:
QB â A. Rodgers, B. Hundley, Wes Lunt (rookie), J. Callahan
RB â T. Montgomery, Darren McFadden, Kareem Hunt (rookie), J. Crockett, D. Jackson
FB â A. Ripkowski, J. Kerridge
WR â J. Nelson, R. Cobb, D. Adams, G. Allison, Carlos Henderson (rookie), J. Janis, T. Davis
TE â J. Cook, R. Rodgers, Cole Hikutini (rookie)
OL â D. Bakhtiari, B. Bulaga, T.J. Lang, C. Linsley, L. Taylor, J. Spriggs, JJ Dielman (rookie), K. Murphy, L. Patrick
DL â M. Daniels, L. Guion, K. Clark, Chris Wormley (rookie), D. Lowry, B. Price, C. Ringo
OLB â C. Matthews, J. Peppers, Tarell Basham(rookie), J. Elliott, K. Fackrell, R. Gilbert
ILB â J. Ryan, B. Martinez, J. Thomas, Harvey Langi (rookie)
CB â A.J. Bouye, Gareon Conley (rookie), D. Randall, Q. Rollins, L. Gunter, M. Dorleant, J. Hawkins, H. Waters
S â M. Burnett, H. Clinton-Dix, K. Brice, M. Evans
K â M. Crosby
P â J. Schum
LS â B. Goode
X4 Not for Pussies
