Packers vs Niners — NFC Divisional Round

@FLPACKER posted:

Only 2 ways we lose this game ; 1) Lose the turnover battle  and /or 2) Not be able to block them.

Agree, turnovers will play a big part. Garrapolo is much more likely to turn it over, but we will see.

#2 for me is how the returning players play.  If they get 100%, then relax, 90% then still should beat them, 80% then it could be close.

This is not the 49ers from 2 years ago, they barely beat the Cowboys after looking dominant in the first half and the Cowboys committing 14 penalties.  I have confidence that MLF and Perry will scheme their A game and make any adjustments.

The Packers may have caught a major break with injuries to Bosa and Warner although I think there’s a 95% chance they both play.  Whether they are just as effective remains to be seen.

The Niners pose a threat for 3 specific reasons:

1) Shanahan knows MLF and his tendencies better than anyone.  He also knows how to scheme against our defense.  

2) SF will actually commit to running the ball and the Packers run defense is suspect

3) Robbie Gould may not have a huge leg, but he’s a proven kicker in crap weather conditions.  Anything under 45 yards is automatic for him.  For most other kickers it’s a crapshoot.  In what might be a close game, having a reliable outdoor kicker is a plus.

To me, beating SF would be more impressive than Dallas because the Cowboys are a finesse team and mentally weak and this Niners team is tough and physical and won’t give you anything easy.  It’s also a perfect warm up to what they can expect from TB.  Only difference is Jimmy G isn’t TB12.

@Goalline posted:

Not sure you are right.

1. Can we stop the run?

2. Cab Savage cover Kittle?

3. Will we run the ball to slow down their pass rush?

4. Will Aaron hold the ball like he always does against great pass rush defenses?

Niners don’t have a great pass defense anymore

Keke and Northwestern, that is my concern.  They are becoming a major liability just in time for the playoffs like always.

Two wins for the Packers to get to the Super Bowl.  Two.  It's within their grasp. 

@Dr._Bob posted:

Two wins for the Packers to get to the Super Bowl.  Two.  It's within their grasp.

Both at Lambeau where they are 8-0 this year.

@Goalline posted:

4. Will Aaron hold the ball like he always does against great pass rush defenses?

In that first matchup. Aaron was getting the ball out quick and that was huge out there with their crowd behind them. Sure, you have to stretch the defense (83) but he pretty much stuck to that passing attack.

While the run defense has been crapping out, some of that has to do with contain on the outside, I do think Barnes in year 2 and Campbell aren't going to allow a track meet.  REALLY need Z to come back and be effective.  Also, Mercilus is a solid run defender.

@YATittle posted:

Niners don’t have a great pass defense anymore

They're fine when you consider the pressure their DL gets.

@YATittle posted:

Niners don’t have a great pass defense anymore

Pass RUSH!

@Henry posted:

While the run defense has been crapping out, some of that has to do with contain on the outside, I do think Barnes in year 2 and Campbell aren't going to allow a track meet.  REALLY need Z to come back and be effective.  Also, Mercilus is a solid run defender.

Z has been part of the problem in the past against the run. He sets the edge fine when he wants to, but then he goes seeking those delicious pass rush opportunities.

That’s a big reason why I’d prefer Z seeing most of his snaps rushing from the inside, along side Kenny. Jimmy G is terrible with pressure in his face.

@GratefulPack posted:

Agree, turnovers will play a big part. Garrapolo is much more likely to turn it over, but we will see.

#2 for me is how the returning players play.  If they get 100%, then relax, 90% then still should beat them, 80% then it could be close.

This is not the 49ers from 2 years ago, they barely beat the Cowboys after looking dominant in the first half and the Cowboys committing 14 penalties.  I have confidence that MLF and Perry will scheme their A game and make any adjustments.

Turnovers are key, but Rodgers is prone to turnover in the Playoffs which is scary. In his 9 Playoff loses Rodgers threw 10 interceptions in 8 of those games.

@Goalline posted:

Pass RUSH!

Minimize it with quick throws, screens, tempo.

@ilcuqui posted:

That’s a big reason why I’d prefer Z seeing most of his snaps rushing from the inside, along side Kenny. Jimmy G is terrible with pressure in his face.

Ideally, but we are going to need him to spell guys on the outside.

Perhaps they can just tell Z to remember his assignment and set the edge.

And give up all those delicious sacks that improve his free agency profile?

@NumberThree posted:

Turnovers are key, but Rodgers is prone to turnover in the Playoffs which is scary. In his 9 Playoff loses Rodgers threw 10 interceptions in 8 of those games.

He’s not prone to turnovers in playoff games, he’s prone to turnovers in playoff games that the Packers have lost.

In 21 playoff games he’s thrown 13 ints and 45 TDs.

@Goalline posted:

Not sure you are right.

1. Can we stop the run?

2. Cab Savage cover Kittle?

3. Will we run the ball to slow down their pass rush?

4. Will Aaron hold the ball like he always does against great pass rush defenses?

We can survive everything else but losing the turnover battle (the most predictive variable in any single game outcome) and / or not being able to block them ...which will pretty much shut down our offense.... look at their game yesterday . Even with all the penalties / stupid plays / not being able to stop the run, etc. Dallas wins the game if Dak doesn't throw the pick and SF doesn't get 5 sacks to Dallas' zero.  

@bdplant posted:

He’s not prone to turnovers in playoff games, he’s prone to turnovers in playoff games that the Packers have lost.

In 21 playoff games he’s thrown 13 ints and 45 TDs.

EXACTLY!!

In AR's playoff career when he throws at least 1 INT:

-2 Wins, 10 Losses, 20/10 TD/INT ratio *edit - ratio is in losses only

In AR's playoff career when he doesn't throw an INT:

-9 Wins, 1 Loss, 25/3 TD/INT ratio *edit - ratio is in wins

*thanks to Fedya for making me double check my numbers, and I still don't know what "compendium" means

@NumberThree posted:

Turnovers are key, but Rodgers is prone to turnover in the Playoffs which is scary. In his 9 Playoff loses Rodgers threw 10 interceptions in 8 of those games.

I think we get spoiled with Rodgers. He has more interceptions in the playoffs than during the regular season, but at some level that's to be expected. You are playing better teams with better defenses. He's certainly not prone to bad turnovers.

He's at 45 TDS and 13 interceptions in his playoff career. That TD to Int ratio would be #3 all-time compared to regular season ratios (behind himself and Mahomes).

In the last 9 playoff games (since the Seattle debacle), he's at 22 and 6. That's an even better ratio. 5 of those interceptions came in losses. They are the following:

1. Atlanta title game. On a 3rd and 21 in their own territory, he threw an interception 55 yards downfield with no return. It may have actually improved their win probability since it was better than a punt.

2. San Francisco title game blowout. 2nd and 15 he threw a pick 39 yards downfield that was returned 9 yards. Not great, but not what you'd call a killer interception. Not really different than if they would have had to punt after the next down.  

3. San Francisco title game. He thew a pick down 17 points with under 2 minutes left in the game by forcing it to the end zone. It made no difference in the outcome.

4. Interception against the Cardinals in the Hail Mary Game. It was a short throw to Abbrederis in the flat. I can't find exactly what happened on that one.

5. The interception against TB last year just before the half. This was the worse one, but the officiating crew missed an obvious hold on Lazard that allowed the INT to happen.

My point is, there are no pick 6s, no bad throws in the red zone that took chip shot FGS off the table, and only 2 interceptions that could have affected an outcome in any matter. The TB one is really the only egregious one and that's questionable due to the way the play was officiated.

@bdplant posted:

He’s not prone to turnovers in playoff games, he’s prone to turnovers in playoff games that the Packers have lost.

In 21 playoff games he’s thrown 13 ints and 45 TDs.

That's what I meant, worded it poorly.

i want to see twitter feeds of 2 and boho in the stadium making fg's - all week long...i want to see feeds of the st running ko's and punts back inside LF...that is where we are vulnerable big time.

@pkr_north posted:

i want to see twitter feeds of 2 and boho in the stadium making fg's - all week long...i want to see feeds of the st running ko's and punts back inside LF...that is where we are vulnerable big time.

I had to read that a couple of times before I understood what you were talking about.

@pkr_north posted:

i want to see twitter feeds of 2 and boho in the stadium making fg's - all week long...i want to see feeds of the st running ko's and punts back inside LF...that is where we are vulnerable big time.

If your on Twitter follow me. @WarhawkGuy

@PackLandVA posted:

EXACTLY!!

[...]

In AR's playoff career when he doesn't throw an INT:

-10 Wins, 1 Loss, 25/3 TD/INT ratio

Shouldn't this second one be 0 INT if it's a compendium of games in which Rodgers doesn't throw an INT?

New nickname:

Scam Francisco ™

Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau Field during the playoffs.

8 games.

187-191, 2278 yards, 18 TDs, 2 Ints. 106.1 Rating.

The two interceptions were on the last offensive play of the Giants loss in January 2012 when they were already down 17 and the Lazard play against TB last year.

I'm not worried about Rodgers in a home playoff game. They should beat the Niners at home 9 out of every 10 times. The reasons to be concerned that the 1 out of 10 will happen are some combination of the following happening.

1. Giving up huge field position swings on special teams.

2. Missing FGs or getting a FG or a punt blocked.

3. If the Niners can control Kenny Clark 1x1 they will likely run wild. If they can't, the Packers will probably be fine in that area.

5. Bosa dominates Billy Turner or Dennis Kelly.

6. Kittle goes wild.

7. Samuel gets some big plays in the running game because Gary or Z. Smith fail to set the edge.

@Fedya posted:

Shouldn't this second one be 0 INT if it's a compendium of games in which Rodgers doesn't throw an INT?

You lost me at compendium.  But I edited my original post. 

@Goalline posted:

Z has been part of the problem in the past against the run. He sets the edge fine when he wants to, but then he goes seeking those delicious pass rush opportunities.

True, but I want to see him on the inside more.  Also, delicious pass rush is what you want just as long as they're getting home, which he does pretty well. 

@PackLandVA posted:

You lost me at compendium.  But I edited my original post. 

Don't encourage him!

A compendium shows a lot of hubris.

This board is a compendium of hubrosities.  And Eeyoritis.  Such a fine line in between.

@PackLandVA posted:

You lost me at compendium.  But I edited my original post. 

I probably should have used the word "aggregate".

BTW: Are you sure Rodgers has 11 playoff losses?  By my count (and the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's) it should be 9:

08: missed playoffs
09: Lost to Arizona in Wild Card
10: won Super Bowl
11: Lost to Giants in Divisional Round
12: Lost to San Francisco in Divisional Round
13: Lost to San Francisco in Wild Card
14: Lost to Seattle in Championship Game
15: Lost to Arizona in Divisional Round
16: Lost to Atlanta in Championship Game
17: missed playoffs
18: missed playoffs
19: Lost to San Francisco in Championship Game
20: Lost to Tampa Bay in Championship Game

@ilcuqui posted:

That’s a big reason why I’d prefer Z seeing most of his snaps rushing from the inside, along side Kenny. Jimmy G is terrible with pressure in his face.

That's my take.  It's not so much that Z will stone the run rather he can slice through the line and blow plays up.

This is where you have Mercilus playing outside opposite Gary or P, who better play fucking contain.

This is what I'd love to see Slaton grow into.  Using him only as a hogger just seems a waste.

And doesn't seem to be what he is good at.

Sorry for the scare yesterday everyone, I appreciate everyone showing love and support for me and the fellas🙏🏾. We’ll be good to go. Huge win, onto the next.

— Fred Warner (@fred_warner) January 17, 2022

Question is how effective he'll be.

@Goalline posted:

Z has been part of the problem in the past against the run. He sets the edge fine when he wants to, but then he goes seeking those delicious pass rush opportunities.

And Gary picked up that habit from him as well.  Or there's a glitch in the coaching matrix on that.

Whatever it is, I agree it can't happen Saturday.