Rodgers Wants A New Contract?

@4 Favre posted:

Ahh yes, what has Rodgers been thinking... why doesn't he simply play better? Like sure, he scores a lot of the time and rarely turns the ball over and that's pretty okay I guess. But maybe if he simply kicked his MVP Hall of Fame level play up a step up or two we fans could get the championships that we deserve?

What an irrational concept. Expecting your best players to play well in the biggest games. Hmmm! Don’t his teammates know that he deserves a break from carrying them? So what, if it’s the NFCC?

Rodgers likely has more issues in the playoffs because the regular season Packers are playing against playoff caliber teams in the playoffs, particularly defenses.

If only there were some way to help get the team over the hump?

It's not an indictment at all that when Rodgers doesn't play at his best the team gets shelled.

A big issue in the 2014 Seattle game for AR was that he was still suffering from the calf strain he got in the Tampa Bay game a few weeks earlier (if he's on the roster they should just sit him out for load management if they play in Tampa again. Half his pic 6s are in games in Tampa). His mobility was really compromised.

The special teams were terrible obviously, but the defense gave away some points, too.  The Peppers-ordered Burnett laydown on the interception was infuriating even in real time. The other one was CM3's crackback block on Wilson after an interception that took away a possession in the red zone and pushed it back to midfield.

Bakh getting hurt changed everything this year. You don't lose one of the top 10 pass-blocking LTs of all time and not have it affect you (even if the backups this year were not Spriggs-like stiffs).

I would argue that CMIII's block on Wilson affected that QB the rest of the game.

I also thought it was Mike Daniels penalty on the sideline that took us out of the red zone after an INT.

@Goalline posted:

What an irrational concept. Expecting your best players to play well in the biggest games. Hmmm! Don’t his teammates know that he deserves a break from carrying them? So what, if it’s the NFCC?

Irrational indeed, it's borderline mental illness to blame your best player regardless of how they played just because they're your best player. He should have just played better! How much better? Well, obviously how much they lost by plus 1.

@YATittle posted:

I would argue that CMIII's block on Wilson affected that QB the rest of the game.

Yes. There was no question that Wilson had a concussion. He could barely walk immediately after that hit.

A lot of people remember the Kings v Lakers game 6, but fewer remember the Blazers v Lakers game 7 two years earlier.

That was the famous - or infamous - Shaq alley oop game.   The game where people blamed Portland for blowing a 15 point 4Q lead.   What gets lost is the Lakers had a 21 FT attempt advantage and several Blazers fouled out.  

@Tschmack posted:

A lot of people remember the Kings v Lakers game 6, but fewer remember the Blazers v Lakers game 7 two years earlier.

That was the famous - or infamous - Shaq alley oop game.   The game where people blamed Portland for blowing a 15 point 4Q lead.   What gets lost is the Lakers had a 21 FT attempt advantage and several Blazers fouled out.  

There were some questionable calls there as well, but the Blazers also shot 5 for 23 from the floor in that quarter and only had 13 points. The Lakers actually shot poorly from the FT line (10 for 18). The Blazers were more responsible for their own demise.

In the infamous Kings-Lakers Game 6, the Kings outshot the Lakers in the 4th quarter. The Kings were 10 for 22 from the field and the Lakers were 5 for 13. The Lakers shot 27 FTs in that 4th quarter. The Kings scored 27 points in the quarter which should have been more than good enough to win. The Lakers had 1 FG the last 7 minutes of that game. It was egregious.

@4 Favre posted:

Irrational indeed, it's borderline mental illness to blame your best player regardless of how they played just because they're your best player. He should have just played better! How much better? Well, obviously how much they lost by plus 1.

Like, maybe not averaging a 78 passer rating when the Super Bowl is on the line? Clearly, playing your best in big games is so overrated unless you are a shitty white defensive tackle. Then we want a Reggie White like performance in the biggest games.

@Goalline posted:

Like, maybe not averaging a 78 passer rating when the Super Bowl is on the line? Clearly, playing your best in big games is so overrated unless you are a shitty white defensive tackle. Then we want a Reggie White like performance in the biggest games.

He was under constant pressure and they never would have made it anywhere close to that game without him. He's carried this team for years. I for one am not eager to see what the next chapter is like without him. It's likely to be pretty rough for a while unless Love improves an AWFUL lot.

Oh, if we get rid of Aaron we are winning a Super Bowl every year for the next decade. I guarantee it. Are you in now?

@Goalline posted:

Like, maybe not averaging a 78 passer rating when the Super Bowl is on the line? Clearly, playing your best in big games is so overrated unless you are a shitty white defensive tackle. Then we want a Reggie White like performance in the biggest games.

The shitty white defensive tackle shouldn't be there in the first place. 

To win a SB all need to step it up.

@Henry posted:

The shitty white defensive tackle shouldn't be there in the first place.

Leave him alone, you racist.

@Pikes Peak posted:

To win a SB all need to step it up.

Except Aaron?

@4 Favre posted:

Irrational indeed, it's borderline mental illness to blame your best player regardless of how they played just because they're your best player. He should have just played better! How much better? Well, obviously how much they lost by plus 1.

It's no more irrational than blaming a defense that has clear deficiencies but still manages to generate turnovers in playoff games. We all agree the ball needs to be in Rodgers' hands in crunch time, specifically because he's the best player on the team.

Based on a defense giving up 35/game in the playoffs, could we agree that 22 pts, 5 turnovers and 14-29 for 209, 1 TD and 4 INT with a 44.3 rating for the opposing QB should be a clear path to winning a game? They generated 5 sacks as well. Most of that was done after GB had screwed the pooch and had to settle for two chip shot FGs, too. What more are we to expect from such a clearly deficient and bumbling defense? Maybe 6 INTs would have sealed the deal?

This year, Rodgers outplayed Brady, aided by a defense that held Brady to a 73.6 rating and picked him off 3 times and should have been 4. Is it the fault of the defense that our left tackle was injured and inactive? Did the defense put the hex on Aaron Jones and make him cough up the ball? Brady took advantage of what his defense provided. That's what he does. That's what a HOF QB is supposed to do. It's what Rodgers has done far more often than not.

The week before Tampa Bay the Packers played a playoff caliber team and gave up 18 pts. Sacked Goff 4 times, allowed 270 total yards. Rodgers was "typical" Rodgers. 23-36 for 296, 2 TDs, 108 rating. A "typical" HOF performance from a HOF QB. It's what we've come to expect from Rodgers because he does it week in and week out. Why would anyone expect less after 15 years?

Those "blaming" defense are just as guilty as those "blaming" Rodgers. Both arguments are irrational in and of themselves.

This offseason... pic.twitter.com/B84kPWysDr

— Matt Mamba (@MattMamba24) May 20, 2021

@Goalline posted:

Like, maybe not averaging a 78 passer rating when the Super Bowl is on the line? Clearly, playing your best in big games is so overrated unless you are a shitty white defensive tackle. Then we want a Reggie White like performance in the biggest games.

Oh my bad you're right. I was being simple minded and saying he should have been margin of defeat plus one points better. But that's stupid. He should be something like 18.4 passer rating better. Then we'd get those Super Bowls we the fans truly deserve.

His passer rating is lower in championship games than in run of the mill regular season games? Well shit he must be playing way worse. He's definitely not playing on average better defenses the deeper in the playoffs the Packers get. And nothing the other players are doing affects that number whatsoever. It's as pure as data can possibly be!

When you see someone with a 102 rating in a game up against a guy who delivered a 74 passer rating you know the 102 won the game. You can take it to the bank. The 74 would have to make up 28 more passer ratings late to even get the game to overtime.

I appreciate you calling it "passer rating" and not "quarterback rating" though.

So Aaron is the greatest player ever against shitty defenses, but sucks against great defenses. That’s your defense?

@artis posted:

It's no more irrational than blaming a defense that has clear deficiencies but still manages to generate turnovers in playoff games. We all agree the ball needs to be in Rodgers' hands in crunch time, specifically because he's the best player on the team.

<snip>

Those "blaming" defense are just as guilty as those "blaming" Rodgers. Both arguments are irrational in and of themselves.

That's a false equivalence. Offense vs defense would be a fair comparison, and in that context I'm not even sure if I'm putting the majority of the NFCCG on the defense. Probably close to 50/50.

But that's not what I see in this thread. This is fans mad about Aaron's behind the scenes disputes with the front office as mostly reported by hacks and dullards. And because of that he is somehow the reason we've stalled out in the NFCCG multiple times now. His petulance and greed. Those are the factors at play. They're not a set of different teams, who failed in different ways. Nope. It's just Aaron Rodgers didn't play good enough.  If he played like he was supposed to we'd win.

If anything I'm on team "get Rodgers some better receivers". I mean just look at the interception that was intended for Lazard. Even when you take into consideration, okay... Lazard isn't going to get the most separation in the world... he lets the dude hold him, with nary a complaint. No hollering at the official after the play, no windmilling with his arm during the play to get the dude off of him. It makes me wonder how often during the course of the game he's being held and just letting it happen to the point it's normalized Then he proceeds to continue his route as if he's wide open, tracking the ball into his hands and starting to turn up field... ignoring the fact that ya know... the guy who has been holding him is right there. You'd think he'd know on account of the guy pulling on his jersey. But the second hint of I don't know... the DB filling up his vision maybe could have triggered a response of fighting for the ball?

To me that might be worse than Angry Bald Man getting a little too aggro and trying to deny a follow up field goal. At least there's an actual thought process there. Though the caveat there is they should have been ready for Speedy White Dude. I don't know, I didn't know anything about Speedy White Dude as scouting opposing teams for free just to be that much more informed while 'enjoying' sports is a step too far for me at this point. Still a big failure it's just not quite as clear where all the fault lies. In real time as I watched it unfold I had a really bad feeling when the wheels turned in Bruce and Tom's head and they called that timeout to go for it. Hats off to them though. So many years of Sherman and McCarthy not seeing situations where they could go for a play with little to no downsides made me appreciate it all the more.

And then of course my least favorite play in football. "Whoops I fumbled ya know what on second thought I'm too hurt to keep playing that's why I fumbled good luck guys!"

Plenty of blame to go around for that loss, I'll give ya that, on coaches AND players. So reminiscent of the Seattle debacle.

@4 Favre posted:

That's a false equivalence. Offense vs defense would be a fair comparison, and in that context I'm not even sure if I'm putting the majority of the NFCCG on the defense. Probably close to 50/50.

But that's not what I see in this thread. This is fans mad about Aaron's behind the scenes disputes with the front office as mostly reported by hacks and dullards. And because of that he is somehow the reason we've stalled out in the NFCCG multiple times now. His petulance and greed. Those are the factors at play. They're not a set of different teams, who failed in different ways. Nope. It's just Aaron Rodgers didn't play good enough.  If he played like he was supposed to we'd win.

If anything I'm on team "get Rodgers some better receivers". I mean just look at the interception that was intended for Lazard. Even when you take into consideration, okay... Lazard isn't going to get the most separation in the world... he lets the dude hold him, with nary a complaint. No hollering at the official after the play, no windmilling with his arm during the play to get the dude off of him. It makes me wonder how often during the course of the game he's being held and just letting it happen to the point it's normalized Then he proceeds to continue his route as if he's wide open, tracking the ball into his hands and starting to turn up field... ignoring the fact that ya know... the guy who has been holding him is right there. You'd think he'd know on account of the guy pulling on his jersey. But the second hint of I don't know... the DB filling up his vision maybe could have triggered a response of fighting for the ball?

To me that might be worse than Angry Bald Man getting a little too aggro and trying to deny a follow up field goal. At least there's an actual thought process there. Though the caveat there is they should have been ready for Speedy White Dude. I don't know, I didn't know anything about Speedy White Dude as scouting opposing teams for free just to be that much more informed while 'enjoying' sports is a step too far for me at this point. Still a big failure it's just not quite as clear where all the fault lies. In real time as I watched it unfold I had a really bad feeling when the wheels turned in Bruce and Tom's head and they called that timeout to go for it. Hats off to them though. So many years of Sherman and McCarthy not seeing situations where they could go for a play with little to no downsides made me appreciate it all the more.

And then of course my least favorite play in football. "Whoops I fumbled ya know what on second thought I'm too hurt to keep playing that's why I fumbled good luck guys!"

And my point is that it's all false equivalence. Like YA said, many people to blame for losses in big games. What I've seen in the last few pages of this eternal thread is "if AR had a defense like Brady, like Ben, etc." That is the false equivalence being made. In playoff games where the defense stepped up, other facets of the team played small. Sometimes it's special teams, sometimes it's "Whoops I fumbled ya know what on second thought I'm too hurt to keep playing that's why I fumbled good luck guys!" (that's the one that burned me up), and yes, sometimes it's Rodgers. Sometimes it's coaching, or putting a gimpy DB on the field when he's a liability. Now the go-to reason for missing the SB for 10 years is because they never put a good enough defense together, even though they HAVE shown up in certain playoff games that resulted in losses. How many top Packer offenses have run up against a playoff defense and underachieved?

Two years ago after the wk 1 win vs the Bores, Rodgers himself said "we've got a defense!" In those two years, they have stretches where they stink, they have glaring weaknesses, they have guys who simply don't belong on the field. And in big moments when they hold their own, even create turnovers, seal wins, etc they still get lumped in with the other 7, 8 9 years of "Rodgers never had a defense."

A HOF QB with the highest scoring offense should also be held to the same standard, if they set a standard and fail to match it when it matters most.

@Goalline posted:

So Aaron is the greatest player ever against shitty defenses, but sucks against great defenses. That’s your defense?

Everyone 'sucks' against great defenses. That's why they're great defenses. Having better numbers against bad defenses compared to great defenses is going to be a pretty universal trend. It's a much better argument than taking a largely arbitrary stat like passer rating, and stripping it of most of its usefulness by shrinking its sample size to a small cherry-picked set.

For that matter let's talk about his "average" of 78. Well... the mean of his NFCCG passer ratings is 80.2. Since he has 5 appearances in the NFCCG looking at the median is probably more useful, especially with the stated goal of him playing well enough to win more than one of those games. His median would be 91.6 from the ATL game.

And his passer rating for NFCCGs (i.e. not an average, but just the formula applied to his cumulative stats which is how the thing is used everywhere else, e.g. passer rating for a season) is 83.7.

So 78 isn't even quite the correct number no matter how you look at it. So long as you're cherry-picking at least get the math right.

LOL, you've made so many excuses for him you've spun yourself into a pretzel. Throw in the actual mean and then toss in the median, none of which is particularly impressive and then use that to back the lame excuses that a great QB won't be great against great defenses. It seems you don't have any problems expecting very average defenses to perform against great offenses.

Good thing I replaced the batteries in my mouse. Lots of scrolling. If I was using my phone I would need to keep it on the charger just to get through the constant long posts and all the quoting of  long posts.

If you don't want number pretzels, don't make up numbers to support your argument. As for the defense I haven't been that negative about them in the context of the 2020 NFCCG and I don't know if anyone has been arguing that they've been adequate in previous years.

My biggest concern during the season was the lack of competent receiver depth and nothing in the NFCCG convinced me that I was wrong.

Also fear not @GBFanForLife using your scroll wheel isn't going to meaningfully affect your battery life, but you could also just ride the PGDN key to skip my posts faster.

Can't it multiple things be true at the same time?  Rodgers hasn't played well in the NFCC but neither have the defense and special teams.  And coaching, for that matter.  But to say Rodgers has been fine and the problem is everyone else is just not true.  10 TDs against 7 picks plus a fumble in 5 games just isn't good enough.  Of course, the defense, special teams, and coaching haven't exactly risen up to compensate (except against the Bears). 

Problem is, this team is built around Rodgers throwing the ball - him, Bakh and Adams combine for a cap hit of $50m in 2020.  That hit is $65m in 2021.  If this team has a down game throwing the ball, they're going to have a hard time winning. 

@CUPackFan posted:

Rodgers hasn't played well in the NFCC but neither have the defense and special teams.  And coaching, for that matter. 

Problem is, this team is built around Rodgers throwing the ball - him, Bakh and Adams combine for a cap hit of $50m in 2020.  That hit is $65m in 2021.  If this team has a down game throwing the ball, they're going to have a hard time winning.

Nah, the principal problem is and has been that -- despite spending 9 of the past 10 top picks on the DEFENSE (can't remember who the lone offensive pick was spent on, anyone else recall) as well as a majority of the 2nd round picks on the D, the consistently mediocre to bad Packer defenses of the past decade.

Blame it on poor coaching (yep), poor drafting (yep), an organizational blind spot when it comes to the importance of the D Line and ILB positions (yep) or whatever else you want to attribute it to, but when a defense gives up an A V E R A G E  of 35 points in its 9 playoff defeats with Rodgers at QB, looking anywhere but the defense to explain why the Green Bay Packers have to as many Super Bowls as the Queens, Lions, or Bears is just silly.

Not even the GOAT Tom Brady has ever won a playoff game when his D has given up 35 points.

Then again, if someone wanted to argue that the Packers' Special Teams units have somehow been even worse than the defense during the Rodgers era I doubt even Shawn Slocum, Ron Zook, or Shawn Mennega would argue otherwise.

@4 Favre posted:

If you don't want number pretzels, don't make up numbers to support your argument. As for the defense I haven't been that negative about them in the context of the 2020 NFCCG and I don't know if anyone has been arguing that they've been adequate in previous years.

My biggest concern during the season was the lack of competent receiver depth and nothing in the NFCCG convinced me that I was wrong.

Also fear not @GBFanForLife using your scroll wheel isn't going to meaningfully affect your battery life, but you could also just ride the PGDN key to skip my posts faster.

Your “real” numbers vs my pulled out of my arse numbers both demonstrated the QB who is taking up 75% of our cap(another made up number) has been perfectly ordinary in NFCC games with the Super Bowl on the line. End off.

@4 Favre posted:

Everyone 'sucks' against great defenses. That's why they're great defenses. Having better numbers against bad defenses compared to great defenses is going to be a pretty universal trend. It's a much better argument than taking a largely arbitrary stat like passer rating, and stripping it of most of its usefulness by shrinking its sample size to a small cherry-picked set.

For that matter let's talk about his "average" of 78. Well... the mean of his NFCCG passer ratings is 80.2. Since he has 5 appearances in the NFCCG looking at the median is probably more useful, especially with the stated goal of him playing well enough to win more than one of those games. His median would be 91.6 from the ATL game.

And his passer rating for NFCCGs (i.e. not an average, but just the formula applied to his cumulative stats which is how the thing is used everywhere else, e.g. passer rating for a season) is 83.7.

So 78 isn't even quite the correct number no matter how you look at it. So long as you're cherry-picking at least get the math right.

Stats are only useful when in comparison to others so I took a look at Tom Brady. 12 Conference Championship games. His "average" QBR is 86, median 75. He's had 4 games above 100 and 3 games below 70.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

12 probably gets too much credit when they win and too much blame when they lose.

That said, I’m still of the opinion that GB should trade him if the price is right.

@FLPACKER posted:

Stats are only useful when in comparison to others so I took a look at Tom Brady. 12 Conference Championship games. His "average" QBR is 86, median 75. He's had 4 games above 100 and 3 games below 70.

All the evidence you need to know that Rodgers is OVERPAID if you want to win a championship. If he does a Brady and reduces his cap number we will win one. He won’t.

As a counter point, why are teams so willing to give up so much to get a franchise QB if they're not worth it? Looking at the Super Bowl winners in the modern era, the team that wins has one of three things:

1. The best QB on the field, usually long-term franchise quality, though occasionally on a ridiculous hot streak (hence the best on the field for the short-term, see: Flacco, Joe and Manning, Eli) and a defense playing well.

2. A Historic (not just good, but historically good) defense with a top-notch run game (see: 2000 Ravens)

3. Facing a team with key injuries (arguably 2021 Bucs)

@Goalline posted:

All the evidence you need to know that Rodgers is OVERPAID if you want to win a championship. If he does a Brady and reduces his cap number we will win one. He won’t.

Unfair comparison ... Brady is the ONLY player in the modern era that has done this ... Brady is the ONLY player in the modern era who has a wife that is worth 400 Million dollars. So does Brady take less because he is just a swell guy?

Maybe.....no one knows but Tommy and the model.

@FLPACKER posted:

Unfair comparison ... Brady is the ONLY player in the modern era that has done this ... Brady is the ONLY player in the modern era who has a wife that is worth 400 Million dollars. So does Brady take less because he is just a swell guy?

I don’t give a shit who is more swell. I care who puts their team in a position to win. Brady does. Rodgers backers would rather ignore reality.

@FLPACKER posted:

Unfair comparison ... Brady is the ONLY player in the modern era that has done this ... Brady is the ONLY player in the modern era who has a wife that is worth 400 Million dollars. So does Brady take less because he is just a swell guy?

Ummmmm. Apparently Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates were “players” and their wives are worth more than $400 million.

Apparently, Rodgers can’t survive on a mere 120 million dollars. Can we hook him up with Melinda Gates?