Sorry for the length of this post, but I really wanted to see if my initial critical thoughts of the 2020 draft was fair to the Gutey/LaFleur combo. Getting a 13-3 record required a lot of favorable breaks, along with a fairly clean injury slate. With such a supposed loaded draft class littered with many high quality WRs and OTs, along with 3-4 real possibilities at ILB, it seemed the Pack was well positioned to check the boxes on the team's most glaring needs...but that didn't happen. Just how do the Packers even have a chance to have a better outcome than missing the Super Bowl by one game? How could the Packers' brain trust have such a bad weekend at the draft?
LaFleur used last year to evaluate player strengths/weaknesses to see how well they fit his vision of a winning formula. He seems to want a ball control, punishing offense that utilizes motion and plays running on script - not the ad-lib style with one-on-one WR battles that AR12 was so successful with when he was throwing to multiple seasoned WRs (which require quick, accurate coverage reads by the QB and WR to execute well-timed back shoulder and quick out throws). LaFleur's system should be less prone to those damn delays of game/time outs that always seemed to happen 1-2 times per half in the old system; the down side is you take away some of the in-play, creative genius from a future HOFer that can identify weaknesses in coverage and also may diminish AR12's use of the "hard count" to get the opposing defenses to jump offside for the free play. LaFleur is content with getting chunk plays down the field - while the explosive plays are nice to have, they aren't what he wants as his base for his offensive philosophy.
Gutey was intent on taking direction from LaFleur on the style of players he wants to run his system effectively and drafted players accordingly. I find it refreshing that the head coach and the GM seem to be walking in unison. Regarding the defense, he seems to be content letting Pettine manage the defense and I'm ok with that. Let's compare the roster and key backups (2019 vs 2020):
- QB - AR12 & Boyle < AR12 & Love
- RB - Jones & Williams < Jones & Dillon
- WR - Adams, Allison, Lazard < Adams, Lazard, Funchess
- TE - Graham, Lewis < Sternberger, Lewis
- OT - Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Veldheer > Bakhtiari, Turner, Wagner
- OG - Jenkins, Turner, Patrick < Jenkins, Runyan, Taylor
- C - Linsley, Patrick = Linsley, Hansen
2020 wins 5, 2019 wins 1, 1 tie
- DL - Clark, Lowry, Lancaster, Adams, Keke - no change to 2020
- ILB - Martinez, Goodson, Burks < Kirksey, Martin, Burks
- OLB - Smith, Smith, Fackrell < Smith, Smith, Gary
- CB - Alexander, King, Williams, Jackson = Alexander, King, Sullivan, Jackson
- S - Amos, Savage, Redmond < Amos, Savage, Greene
2020 wins 3, 2019 wins 0, 2 ties
So the overall top 35 positional players grade out to show the respective units with a score of 2020 8, 2019 1, with 2 ties (and the draft created four of those wins for the 2020 group). The OT position is a big downgrade, but if the offense is run on script and with a heavier run emphasis, the need to have stud OT pass protection may not be as important. I understand these grades require some development of a handful of players (especially guys that were rookies last year and rookies this year), but a majority of the players are the same.
In the face of five key FA at the end of the year (Clark, Bakhtiari, King, Jones, and Linsley), the Pack seems to be best positioned to let Linsley walk and if Jones asks for the farm, he will be in the line out behind him. Clark is the most integral due to his age and the lack of depth behind him - will likely get franchise tagged if no long term deal is made. Bakhtiari is a better pass blocker than run blocker, so I can actually vision how Gutey might let him walk (75% likely he will resign) - could see Bakh getting the transition tag. King is truly a coin flip - I believe he will need to play at least 14 games to get a new contract. I'm hoping either Clark or Bakh get extended during the season and therefore can use the franchise tag on the other player.
In the end, the sky is not falling. The Pack should be considered the favorite to win the NFC North and once in the playoffs, anything can happen - especially if the LaFleur's smash-mouth offense is rolling and games are played in January in Green Bay (a distinct possibility if the season gets delayed due to COVID-19).
I was wrong, the draft was a success. GO PACK GO!!!