State of the Packers

Won't know anything for several years. If the GM is correct, Packers will have a run at QB that will be unprecedented. The wait-and-see approach seems much better than the wailing and gnashing of teeth I'm seeing from some fans.

Good breakdown Koopla.   Only one I'd disagree with is LB.  I'll admit though that I don't know a lot about Kirksey, other than his injury history.  So I guess we'll just have to see.  And the weakness at OT does worry me.  

This year will depend heavily on the improvement of second and third year players - Savage, Gary, Jackson, Burks, Keke, MVS, ESB, Lazard, and Sternberger.  If all these players improve and play to what Gute thinks they can, we'll be fine.  Probably better than fine.  

@michiganjoe posted:

Won't know anything for several years. If the GM is correct, Packers will have a run at QB that will be unprecedented. The wait-and-see approach seems much better than the wailing and gnashing of teeth I'm seeing from some fans.

It usually takes three years to know how a draft plays out. Admittedly,this draft caused me a lot of consternation( i.e. upset ego). I now feel that GB had a decent draft and bolstered our O Line, which was neglected the past few years, except for Elgton Jenkins. If Love works out, like he may, I think Michiganjoe is correct in saying the Packers will have an unprecedented run at the QB position. I think Jamaal Williams will be trade material and Dillon will be expected to fill that void. I also think we may have a sleeper, or two, from our newly signed UDFAs. RB Patrick Taylor, Jr. comes to mind, as does DB Mark Antoine DeQuoy, just to name a couple of UDFAs. GO PACK, GO!!! Now, let's see if we can even have a football season this Fall.

Good post Koopla. GB definitely caught some serious breaks in 2019, especially with health. It's hard to say GB is better at positions like WR and TE because there are a lot of unknowns, but I think its obvious to say they're not WORSE. After years of watching TT be so clearly out of sync with McCarthy, it is nice to see a GM actually give the coach what he wants. Everything rests on LaFleur being the next Kyle Shannahan rather than the next Adam Gase, but so far he's demonstrated he can 1) change the locker room culture for the better and 2) work effectively with a HOF QB and 3) use his talent correctly. He fed, and at times forced, the ball to our elite playmakers in Adams and Jones. Normally you would expect a slump in year 2 now that teams have film on tendencies, but I don't expect we will see a huge dip in production because 1) Aaron Rodgers is the savviest QB to ever play the game and he doesn't often get diagnosed or make crucial mistakes. 2) they're beefing up the run game not only with a beefier bellcow back, but they replaced Bulaga (who wasn't an elite run blocker) with a more proven run blocker (see Wagner in Baltimore) and we will likely see a beefier RG in Lane Taylor over Turner. A philosophical shift in the run game is a wrinkle teams won't quite be prepared for and it will allow MORE flexibility with Jones and Rodgers. 

@Koopla Krash posted:

 

• DL - Clark, Lowry, Lancaster, Adams, Keke - no change to 2020 

Think "no change" is the problem. Expecting a horribly porous run defense to magically improve doesn't seem terribly realistic.

We're not worse!   We're not worse!  There is a rallying cry if I ever heard one.

And I think it is correct.  Lets hope for a real season and let it play out.

@Grave Digger posted:

Good post Koopla. GB definitely caught some serious breaks in 2019, especially with health. It's hard to say GB is better at positions like WR and TE because there are a lot of unknowns, but I think its obvious to say they're not WORSE. After years of watching TT be so clearly out of sync with McCarthy, it is nice to see a GM actually give the coach what he wants. Everything rests on LaFleur being the next Kyle Shannahan rather than the next Adam Gase, but so far he's demonstrated he can 1) change the locker room culture for the better and 2) work effectively with a HOF QB and 3) use his talent correctly. He fed, and at times forced, the ball to our elite playmakers in Adams and Jones. Normally you would expect a slump in year 2 now that teams have film on tendencies, but I don't expect we will see a huge dip in production because 1) Aaron Rodgers is the savviest QB to ever play the game and he doesn't often get diagnosed or make crucial mistakes. 2) they're beefing up the run game not only with a beefier bellcow back, but they replaced Bulaga (who wasn't an elite run blocker) with a more proven run blocker (see Wagner in Baltimore) and we will likely see a beefier RG in Lane Taylor over Turner. A philosophical shift in the run game is a wrinkle teams won't quite be prepared for and it will allow MORE flexibility with Jones and Rodgers. 

^This^  I think what we have now is a shift in philosophies for what the HC wants and the GM being very willing to give him the players he wants.  I think as fans of the Packers we have grown used to kind of an air raid offense but now we are transitioning to a more of a physical run first team.  

Digger, I also agree with your assessment of MLF.  He seems to have the pulse of this team and uses the talent he has very well.   

Koopla, you are right the sky is not falling and as I sit back more and think about it this team is in good hands with Gute and MLF.  As fans we may not agree with the moves but we also are looking at it from afar and we have not idea what is talked about at 1265.

The team could actually be improved this year and not come close to the 13-3 record.

I’m more interested in seeing player progression and development.   Will some of the WRs and TEs make a leap?   Will some of the younger guys like Savage and Alexander and Gary take a step forward?   Can a Dean Lowry or Lancaster surprise us?  Can anyone at ILB step up and perform? 

Then there is player health.  Good luck trying to predict that. 

Health is a concern, as they were pretty lucky last year.  Adams was out awhile and there were some minor injuries like Greene, Burks and Bulaga (had to sit out part of a few games, if I remember right) but overall, they had it pretty good.  

Other thing - this team won games last year that they probably should have lost.  They went 6-1 in games decided by 7 or less.  They beat the Chiefs without Mahomes.  It was already going to be very hard to repeat 13 wins in 2020 without significant roster upgrades, and I'm just not sure they did enough.  Guess we'll see.  

@CUPackFan posted:

Health is a concern, as they were pretty lucky last year.  

Other thing - this team won games last year that they probably should have lost.  

Agreed on health. 

They also lost games they should've won. Losing to the Chargers is a joke & losing to Eagles at home equally bad

If the Packers win 10 games this year & make the playoffs -- will everyone be happy?

@CUPackFan posted:

Health is a concern, as they were pretty lucky last year.  Adams was out awhile and there were some minor injuries like Greene, Burks and Bulaga (had to sit out part of a few games, if I remember right) but overall, they had it pretty good.  

Other thing - this team won games last year that they probably should have lost.  They went 6-1 in games decided by 7 or less.  They beat the Chiefs without Mahomes.  It was already going to be very hard to repeat 13 wins in 2020 without significant roster upgrades, and I'm just not sure they did enough.  Guess we'll see.  

Agreed. 13 wins is unrealistic, but 10 wins would have won our division and 9 wins (depending on the specific wins/losses) would have made the playoffs. So even if they come back down to earth and lose a couple of those games I don't think it's a huge deal. Honestly I think it was partly luck not having to face Mahomes, but I do credit Gute/MLF with bringing in key players like Amos, Smiths, etc. who truly came up big in those key moments and won in tight situations. In the past we relied on an aging CM3 or Daniels to come up big in those moments and those guys just weren't up to the task. 

Here's what I think:

Through 2005-2012, for the most part, Ted Thompson was a pretty damn good NFL GM. And in those years, including when he drafted AR, he did things that infuriated fans. 

A GM worth their salt are going to make occasional moves that knee-jerk, reactionary, emotional fans hate at the time (myself included). If we want the kind of GM who does what fans want, then we should become Cowboy fans. Because that's precisely what Jerry Jones is. That's the same dude who literally (according to stories) had to be restrained from taking Johnny-dumbfuck-Manziel a few years ago. 

The bottom line is we simply don't know if selecting Love, Dillon, etc was the right move. We will not know that for years. But we DO know now is that this is a GM who is consulting his HC and drafting players LaFleur wants. Something in the later years Ted refused to do despite McCarthy and Capers telling him over and over the kind of players they needed. And that also includes FA and trades where Ted sat on his hands and did jack squat. 

We also know that Gute is not a strictly draft and develop GM either. He will keep kicking tires and overturning rocks to build the best roster he can. Free agency, in-season trades, the whole lot of options. Something Ted didn't do for most of his tenure here either. 

I really don't give a shit if the Packers become the Titans/49ers/Rams and they are a primarily run offense. If that results in 10-12 minute, smothering, plodding drives that gas defenses and it's a 19-13 type win, fine by me. That's exactly what the 2017 Rams did when Gurley was healthy and productive. The Rams put together 2-3 of those kinds of drives and the opposing defenses were simply gassed by the 3rd Q. 

Even if you have a shitty defense, if they never see the field because your offense is always on the field, they will look pretty damn good. I've heard and seen worse head coaching game plans then that. If MLF succeeds and the Packers dominate in time of possession, he and Gute will look like geniuses. 

I actually give a ton of credit to Lefleur for pulling out as many close games as they did last year, especially when Adams was out.  He shifted to a run heavy offense and made Jones a serious threat in the passing game.  I think 10 or 11 wins 2020 is realistic (if the season happens).  

Gute crushed it with the Smith Bros. and Amos.  This year will really give us an idea of Gute's drafts though.  Alexander, Scott, Jenkins and Savage have proved they are starters in this league (and possibly more).  But Jackson, Burks, MVS, EQ, Sternberger, and Keke, are just as close to JAGs than they are being solid NFL contributors.  I think our 2020 success rests on those guys, plus Dillon.  

EDIT: Bill Barnwell wrote about the Packers going in to the 2020 season.  Pretty much exactly what I wrote in my previous post with even more stats about injuries and their close games. 

As others have said, health will a key factor in our success next season. Yes, I expect less than 13 wins, but the real question is "will we be good enough to beat the very best teams in the playoffs"? Personnel-wise that does not appear to be the case. We've not closed the gap in talent level between us and SF (just using them as a benchmark for talent needed). Gute is banking on the system to make up for that disparity but in reality it seldom does. 

Last year the Pack was definitely the 2nd best team in the NFC.

The question is....will they regress, stay the same or vault to #1?

I mean.....the Vikings look really tough with the A++++ draft they had 🙄

By the by, The Packer in 2018 were 21st in TOP. In 2017, they were 27th.

In MLF's rookie year, they sky rocketed to 6th.

I just gotta say I don't think the Niners will be a threat next season. 

1.) They just lost the Super Bowl, a game they could have and should have won. That seldom works out well the next season.

2.) I think they're in the best division in the NFL. Cardinals and Seahawks improved considerably in the off season and the Rams have talent. I don't see the Niners with their first place schedule this year waltzing to the top seed.

JMHO.

I would be happy with 10 wins. Last year was a learning curve and I think GB over-achieved and pulled out some close ones that maybe they'll lose this year, and this year the schedule would be tougher, teams would have a chance to study more tape on MLF and his system and tendencies, etc. But, I still want to see them improve in smoothness of operation on offense, and I want them to make better adjustments on defense. The jump in TOP is HUGE because our defense was always on the field previously. TOP also points to more sustained drives. I'll take the four boring 10-play drives that end in three TDs and a FG over four three-and-outs and one long-strike TD any day. It's was hard to watch MM's pass-pass-pass-punt offense those last years.  

The X factor nobody talks about is Mason Crosby.  Now that he has a deal that will probably keep him Green Bay until his career is over he could be as good as he was in 2019.   If they get to the 30 he can make them, consistently.  Some close losses become close wins. 

Good point, Ammo. I guess that except for that one lousy year, we take Money Mason for granted. 

I had to look up some stats for Mason, and they validate the above statements.
Over his career, he is:

9/9 inside of 20 yards
92/94 (98%) between 20-29 yards
108/123 (88%) between 30-39 yards
85/114 (75%) between 40-49 yards
35/66 (53%) for 50+ yards. Longest kick made is 58 yards.
Overall, that is 329/406  (81%) for his career, while making 98% of his PATs.

However, in the playoffs is where he really earns the "money" moniker.
26/29 (90%) FGs (not broken down by distances), 100% on PATs.

My favorite thing about Crosby is his tackling. One of the best tackling kickers I've ever seen. I think he's old enough now the coaches really discourage him from sticking his nose in there, but he's a killer if he does!

I dunno what everyone is watching.  Maybe I am watching a different team.  This team had zero WR threats outside of 17.  One RB, 33 and zero TE.  On defense, they were swiss cheese on the run and gave up a ton in the middle soft zone.  they were good in coverage and had good pash rush...nothing has changed there except being year 2 in the offensive scheme.  This is why the draft was gut wrenching it was an opportunity to add some juice on the cheap...I mean some legit juice, adding Queen and a 2nd round wr would have really changed the dynamic of this thing...we can deal with a body up front, sign a FA like yesterday, but the middle would have drastically improved  IMO.

@pkr_north posted:

I dunno what everyone is watching. 

We're watching the Packers. They swept the division, went 4-0 without Adams, threw for more than 4000 yards, scored 19 rushing TDs and had the 2nd best regular season record in the entire NFL. You can look that up right here:

https://www.nfl.com/standings/league/2019/REG.  Just sort it by "league"

Then they took their team into the playoffs, beat the Seahawks and made it to the NFC CG. That's what we're watching and it was a lot of fun both for the fans and for the players. A bunch of the players said they really came together and really had a blast playing for each other. Super cool to see for the new HC

Its a darn shame you missed all the fun - but that's on you, not the Packers

I guess I am scarred from watching my team get repeatedly smashed around at the most important times.  entirely embarrassed on the national stage.  if you are happy getting a beating on national tv, that's ok too.  I love my team, I also know when you have an opportunity, don't let it slip by...they did just that.  The lack of a mlb is just astonishing.  The deepest draft at WR.  They hit a lot of lucky breaks this year, that will not happen again.  I want to see them to take the next step, it just hasn't happened, I am a realist.  A win is a win, for sure - I want them to be in the SB one more time before the HOF'er retires.  Make no doubt though, my angst is wanting them to be the best, with AR still there, I am tired of watching that slip away, year by year...ah, it was fun, when do we want to get the big one? frustrating as hell.

Can both be right?   They did just fine, as their record shows AND they did get mauled at times.

Lots of teams get smashed around at the most important time, every year.

Someone once said, the journey is the reward. Last year's journey was a blast to be a part of.

I don't think you can compare position groups from year to year.  Take for example the DL group which hasn't changed. That should be a wash I guess because it's the same players.

But that isn't how it actually works. Players are either getting better or they are getting worse. There is no stasis in player development. So as I look at the DL I would project that the 2020 group would be better than the 2019 group simply because the group is so young that they should still be developing.

Likewise I would say the CB position should be better this season with the further development of King and Pocket Hercules, never mind the probably loss of Williams. 

On the other side would be a position like C. I don't think Linsley is getting better and the change of back up doesn't make me think that overcomes the downward trajectory Linsley has shown.

Last year was fun to watch as we saw them overachieve and come up one game short with a rookie HC.   Rodgers looked like he recovered a bit and the Smiths were great additions.  Amos was solid.  Aaron Jones and Mason Crosby had fantastic years as well.  Jenkins was a diamond in the rough at guard and Bulaga had probably his best year as a pro.

A lot has to happen this year for this team to get back to where they were namely some of the younger guys like Savage and Gary and MVS (or another WR) have to step it up.  King and Alexander need to play to their potential.  Someone on the OL and DL has to step up.  Same thing with TE.

The draft is the draft.  Everyone is hammering Gute and maybe the critics will be right eventually.  Don’t know.  

Personally,  I will be happy if they play this season.  If they do, then let the chips fall where they may.

Last year GB was 4-0 without Adams. Rodgers played some of his best games visually and statistically because he had to spread it around. OL and Receivers must have been doing something right and we found a great passing weapon in Jones.

Adams came back, Rodgers fixated on him again and we were back to nail biters and throws into tight coverage again.

Then we draft predominately O players. BOO HOO if you want to bitch about not giving him weapons while 4 of our D front 7 are gone or lightweight pushovers. We have no nose tackle so Clark gets no help from double teams.

The only help the D got was an ILB coming off knee surgery who started 18 of 45 games with powerhouse Minny. Sigh. (Gutekunst showed our lightweight D token thought  with the last 2 picks.)

Ignoring D, especially our front 7, so the 9ers mauled us twice, really makes me think a SB next year is so much harder after this draft. So hope Gutekunst is right. Even if all these new moving parts work out, he's a damn dummy if he eliminated a SB chance this year. 

@AtTheMurph posted:

I don't think you can compare position groups from year to year.  Take for example the DL group which hasn't changed. That should be a wash I guess because it's the same players.

But that isn't how it actually works. Players are either getting better or they are getting worse. There is no stasis in player development. So as I look at the DL I would project that the 2020 group would be better than the 2019 group simply because the group is so young that they should still be developing.

Likewise I would say the CB position should be better this season with the further development of King and Pocket Hercules, never mind the probably loss of Williams. 

On the other side would be a position like C. I don't think Linsley is getting better and the change of back up doesn't make me think that overcomes the downward trajectory Linsley has shown.

The biggest factor is injury. If Clark misses 8 games, Lowry 5 , etc., there is no way they will be better. Same applies to each position group. This is what makes improving this season a daunting task. We were 5th in "least games lost by starters" last season .... and that includes Lane Taylor, whose loss ended up "addition by subtraction". 

@FLPACKER posted:

The biggest factor is injury. If Clark misses 8 games, Lowry 5 , etc., there is no way they will be better. 

If Lowry missed 5 (or more) games would they be any worse?

@AtTheMurph posted:

I don't think you can compare position groups from year to year.  Take for example the DL group which hasn't changed. That should be a wash I guess because it's the same players.

But that isn't how it actually works. Players are either getting better or they are getting worse. There is no stasis in player development. So as I look at the DL I would project that the 2020 group would be better than the 2019 group simply because the group is so young that they should still be developing.

 

I don't think Kenny Clark will be much better in 2020 because he was already damn good in 2019 without much help and I don't foresee him getting much help in 2020 either.

Keke is still young and has not gotten his shot, so I can understand at least hoping he improves the DL play in 2020.

But did young player Montravious Adams get better in year 3 (2019) or worse?

Did young player Tyler Lancaster get better in year 2 (2019) or worse?

Did 4th year player (in 2019) Dean Lowry get better or worse?

I look at the DL and see a former 3rd round pick who has never produced over his 3 seasons in GB in Adams, an UDFA who was never projected to be much of a player and has not been much of a player in his 2 seasons in GB in Lancaster, and a now 5th year player who had ZERO sacks while consistently getting washed out in the run in 2019 in Lowry. 

Are folks really optimistic this trio is going to be better in 2020 than they were in 2019?

I think the fact that Gutey recently made waivers claims on Gerald Willis and Jamal Davis and just signed Treyvon Hester is a pretty good indicator of just how confident they are in seeing "improvement" among the incumbents along the DL.

Not very.

@pkr_north posted:

I guess I am scarred from watching my team get repeatedly smashed around at the most important times.  entirely embarrassed on the national stage.  if you are happy getting a beating on national tv, that's ok too.  I love my team, I also know when you have an opportunity, don't let it slip by...they did just that.  The lack of a mlb is just astonishing.  The deepest draft at WR.  They hit a lot of lucky breaks this year, that will not happen again.  I want to see them to take the next step, it just hasn't happened,
I am a realist.  A win is a win, for sure - I want them to be in the SB one more time before the HOF'er retires.  Make no doubt though, my angst is wanting them to be the best, with AR still there, I am tired of watching that slip away, year by year...ah, it was fun, when do we want to get the big one? frustrating as hell.

Yes, you are scarred and once again, that's on you not the Packers.
I'm pretty much happy all the time, because I alone am responsible for my happiness, not the Packers.

Your unhappiness is tied to the concept that the Packers made different choices than you would. You've conflated that with "the Packers are doing it wrong" 
That is not at all logical.

You are not a realist, you're a prisoner of your opinions. You've created all of your own unhappiness and pinned responsibility on the Packers.
That's not an enlightened approach

You're tired of watching "it" slip away. OK, so what is it that YOU are going to do about it other than whining on a message board ?  

You have exactly one job as it relates to the Green Bay Packers:
Watch and enjoy the games. That's it.
And if you aren't enjoying the games, then you are doing it rong.

The Packers want to win as badly as we all do, they simply chose a different strategy than you would espouse - and because of that - you are miserable.
Think about that for a moment....all of your misery is because of you. 

As soon as you accept that reality, your life will improve (and so will ours)
We all make our own sandwiches in life -  its time to start taking responsibility for what you put on yours.

Go Packers  

All good points Satori.

That said, I wouldn't want you to be the one called to talk me down from a ledge.

If Satori had a sub machine gun, he would have liked all of you people in the draft threads.

Satori, the voice of reason....whoda thunk it

So shoot myself in the face and have a shit sammich afterwards.  Got it.

wow, for someone who knows absolutely nothing about me, you win.  this was a good thread....

and I still think the PACKERS had a shit draft.