How can that possibly be true?!?! Does PFF not see the flaw in whatever methodology they use? How can you have the top rated pass blocking OL and one of the top rated QBs all while give up the most sacks in the league, but only 15% are charged to the QB?!?! Did they charge 90% of the sacks to TEs? Makes no sense.
I'm not even a big stats guy but I always liked what Football Outsiders used as a methodology.
A completely different perspective on the same play Fennell highlighted that started this recent PFF discussion.
It's an interesting look at how teams may be using Rodgers hard count to show him defensive reads they don't intend to use.
ChilliJon posted:A completely different perspective on the same play Fennell highlighted that started this recent PFF discussion.
It's an interesting look at how teams may be using Rodgers hard count to show him defensive reads they don't intend to use.
Thanks for posting that. Good read
Yes thanks for posting, that's a great breakdown.
This is exactly the situation where a veteran WR core, raised in this offense, would have recognized Slay's move and adjusted the route. If this play was Jordy Nelson instead of MVS I think he recognizes Slay's move and adjusts the route inside. I would expect a veteran TE like Graham to see this also and adjust his route accordingly. Same thing with Kumerow, as soon as he sees that CB bail out in zone he needs to not run that route so shallow.
Rodgers isn't pulling the trigger because he's not seeing what he expects to see and I don't think it's anything unique the defense is doing, I don't think he's getting the adjustments from the receivers that he should on this play. Not saying Gute was wrong for sending Jordy away, but this is what happens when you're relying on players in their first year in this offense. Blame the scheme all you want, but these kinds of adjustments are critical in most schemes, it's why it's easier to make an impact as a deep threat early in your career when all you have to do is run deep.
Tschmack posted:Anyone thinks the Packers OL graded out in the Top 10 needs to have their head examined.
Bahktari, yes. Linsley, perhaps. The rest? No ****ing way. Their guard play alone may have been in the bottom 6 in the league.
If you were a student of the game AND took the time to break down each game film...in isolation mind you...you would then understand.
Just sayin.
You might come to the conclusion that MM was canned because he didn't have enough experienced WR's (TT's lack of drafting them) or capable OL. His scheme wasn't stale, it could not longer be executed by the 2018 roster. Or another angle is that his offense didn't put younger players in a position to succeed.
You could extrapolate that to the offense being on a steady decline since 2014 because of the steady decline of the OL and WR's. And Lacy.
oldschool posted:Tschmack posted:Anyone thinks the Packers OL graded out in the Top 10 needs to have their head examined.
Bahktari, yes. Linsley, perhaps. The rest? No ****ing way. Their guard play alone may have been in the bottom 6 in the league.
If you were a student of the game AND took the time to break down each game film...in isolation mind you...you would then understand.
Just sayin.
How's your QB mentoring going?
DH13 posted:You might come to the conclusion that MM was canned because he didn't have enough experienced WR's (TT's lack of drafting them) or capable OL. His scheme wasn't stale, it could not longer be executed by the 2018 roster. Or another angle is that his offense didn't put younger players in a position to succeed.
You could extrapolate that to the offense being on a steady decline since 2014 because of the steady decline of the OL and WR's. And Lacy.
The WRs declined a lot, but the offensive line declined from being one of the best OLs in football (and one of the best in Packer history) to a bottom third OL. It really makes what Aaron Jones did his year even more remarkable.
In 2014, 4 of the 5 starting OL were Pro Bowl level - Bakh, Sitton and Lang at the guards, and a healthy Bulaga at RT. The worst offensive lineman was Linsley and the top backup was Tretter. All 5 were 28 years old or younger.
Bakh and Linsley started every game. Lane Taylor is at least average, but the drop-off from a guy who will at least get discussed as a potential HOFer (Sitton) to Taylor is large. The drop-off from Lang to Bell/McCray/Patrick is huge. Bulaga managed to start 14 games, but he couldn't finish a lot of them. The drop-off to Spriggs when he had to play was immense.
The problems all go back to whiffing on so many DB high draft picks. From 2015-2018, the Packers had 12 picks in the first 3 rounds. They drafted two offensive players - Spriggs and Montgomery. They've literally added no Round 1-3 contributors to the offense in the last 4 drafts. Also, the first player they've picked in the last 7 drafts has been a defender.
They need to go BPA every time. They got in trouble because they were constantly trying to fix the DB position.
Gotta love Vegas....you can darn near bet on anything :
Green Bay Packers head coach in Week 1 of 2019 reg. season
- Josh McDaniels +100 (1:1)
- Matt LaFleur +250 (5:2)
- Jim Caldwell +350 (7:2)
- Dan Campbell +500 (5:1)
- Mike Munchak +1000 (10:1)
- Brian Flores +1000 (10:1)
- Chuck Pagano +1500 (15:1)
- Joe Philbin +2000 (20:1)
In terms of the decline, it's probably not a coincidence that the last time they had a season this poor (other than Rodgers' first year as a starter) was in 2005 when they also had poor OG play. They from 10-6 in 2004 to 4-12 in 2005. The offense went from averaging 26.4 points to 18.6 points.
They lost Javon Walker to a knee injury in the first game, but a big difference is that they changed their starting guards from Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle to Will Whitaker and Adrian Klemm. Having good guards makes a huge difference.
Packdog posted:Gotta love Vegas....you can darn near bet on anything :
Green Bay Packers head coach in Week 1 of 2019 reg. season
- Josh McDaniels +100 (1:1)
- Matt LaFleur +250 (5:2)
- Jim Caldwell +350 (7:2)
- Dan Campbell +500 (5:1)
- Mike Munchak +1000 (10:1)
- Brian Flores +1000 (10:1)
- Chuck Pagano +1500 (15:1)
- Joe Philbin +2000 (20:1)
I can't believe Philbin is only 20 to 1. I'd say he has no chance of returning.
MichiganPacker2 posted:In terms of the decline, it's probably not a coincidence that the last time they had a season this poor (other than Rodgers' first year as a starter) was in 2005 when they also had poor OG play. They from 10-6 in 2004 to 4-12 in 2005. The offense went from averaging 26.4 points to 18.6 points.
They lost Javon Walker to a knee injury in the first game, but a big difference is that they changed their starting guards from Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle to Will Whitaker and Adrian Klemm. Having good guards makes a huge difference.
Look at what the Colts did with that rookie guard
MichiganPacker2 posted:Packdog posted:Gotta love Vegas....you can darn near bet on anything :
Green Bay Packers head coach in Week 1 of 2019 reg. season
- Josh McDaniels +100 (1:1)
- Matt LaFleur +250 (5:2)
- Jim Caldwell +350 (7:2)
- Dan Campbell +500 (5:1)
- Mike Munchak +1000 (10:1)
- Brian Flores +1000 (10:1)
- Chuck Pagano +1500 (15:1)
- Joe Philbin +2000 (20:1)
I can't believe Philbin is only 20 to 1. I'd say he has no chance of returning.
Totally agree on Philbin. Was a bit surprised Fitzgerald wasn't on the list.
Otherwise agree that McDaniels and LeFleur appear to be the front runners.
Apparently no one is taking Kris Richard seriously.
Henry posted:oldschool posted:Tschmack posted:Anyone thinks the Packers OL graded out in the Top 10 needs to have their head examined.
Bahktari, yes. Linsley, perhaps. The rest? No ****ing way. Their guard play alone may have been in the bottom 6 in the league.
If you were a student of the game AND took the time to break down each game film...in isolation mind you...you would then understand.
Just sayin.
How's your QB mentoring going?
Racist
Still hoping it is McDaniels. At least he could have a functional offense when Brady was out. Mm could never get anything consistent without rodgers playing superman.
Multiple NFL teams made inquiries on Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald, but agent Bryan Harlan said Fitzgerald said he will not be a candidate for any NFL openings, including the #Packers.
Interesting note...fitz agent is Bob Harlan's son. He has a lot of connections to 1265.
CoPackFan posted:Multiple NFL teams made inquiries on Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald, but agent Bryan Harlan said Fitzgerald said he will not be a candidate for any NFL openings, including the
#Packers.
Good. He's just fine where he's at.
He’s the only person reporting Packers’ interest in Gase. Time will tell. https://t.co/nVSVnwRVWU
— Michael Rodney (@PackersNotes) January 3, 2019
Reminds me of “Limo driver in Detroit just picked up Khalil Mack at the airport”.
These constant Fitzgerald updates and stories from the local beat guys about “Fitzgerald having zero interest” have a really bad whiff of Murphy sweeping in at the 11th hour and landing the guy he had no chance of landing and being hailed as a negotiating genius. Don’t like it at all.
michiganjoe posted:For Packers, Josh McDaniels’ upside outweighs his red flags
Risk and red flags with all the candidates. It's a roll of the dice, just like the draft.
No, it doesn't.
Guy was an epic tool and an utter failure in Denver and he's still a hapless ****stick. Indy dodged a bullet and got a better coach. Jishy wants to be named BB's heir.
Yeah, I actually think Fitzgerald is a fine coach, but I think he'd be a questionable fit here. I'll root hard for him if he gets his shot, but there would be a lot of reasons he could easily fail.
The biggest concern with McDaniels would be whether he could convince top assistants to be under him after he left the Colts at the altar. Maybe no one worth their salt would trust him to stay in GB for very long if something else popped up. Who knows, maybe there were good reasons behind what he did there.
I like Gase and think he'd do better here than in Miami.
I'd be fine with Gase, Campbell or LaFleur, not sure how I feel about Munchak or Pagano.
The only concern I have with McDaniels is Gutes comfort level with him. If Gute feels hes going to just be a coach and build a staff and be good with it then he’s the best pick there is. Gute is a huge influence on this one.
Gute and McDaniels were potential GM/HC combo in SF but Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch got the gig. The 2 reportedly have good rapport and McD would have to think long and hard about ditching a second-team. But I'm concerned if Packers wait on McD and NE wins Super Bowl then Belichick rides off into the sunset. Bingo, McD takes his dream job as new Patriots HC and doesn't have to relocate his family. Meanwhile the Packers have no HC and all good assistants are gone.
Very good post. I’m interested to see what might shake out if NE loses next weekend.
It's been widely reported that Gute and McDaniels researched each other in preparation for their respective 49er jobs. Guess we'll find out how impressed Gute was with McDaniels.
As far as McDaniels assistants wstill wanting to work for him after the Indy fiasco, while i believe several actually stayed in Indy, there's this :
"A handful of NFL assistant coaches have indicated interest in joining a McDaniels-led coaching staff in Green Bay, according to sources who spoke to Yahoo Sports on Sunday," Robinson wrote. "So much so that at least one has pulled his name from consideration for a college coordinator position. While such a development doesn’t guarantee mutual interest between the Packers and McDaniels, it is an indication the Patriots assistant is maintaining a list of staff candidates if he chooses to depart New England."
fightphoe93 posted:Yeah, I actually think Fitzgerald is a fine coach, but I think he'd be a questionable fit here. I'll root hard for him if he gets his shot, but there would be a lot of reasons he could easily fail.
The biggest concern with McDaniels would be whether he could convince top assistants to be under him after he left the Colts at the altar. Maybe no one worth their salt would trust him to stay in GB for very long if something else popped up. Who knows, maybe there were good reasons behind what he did there.
I like Gase and think he'd do better here than in Miami.
I agree on Fitzgerald he is a decent coach who is doing well in a place that is very hard to compete in. But, I think he is the perfect coach there doesn't mean he is cut out to be an NFL guy. Maybe its just me but I don't get the interest in him I just don't.
I of course have no insight at 1265 but if I was a betting man I would say it is going to come down to McDaniels or Gase. Not basing that on anything just a hunch.
It could go either way with McD and Gase. I'm not sure there's a middle ground. With McD's track record in Denver and then Indy, and the reports coming out of Miami of players hating playing for Gase, you have to hold your breath that they have learned their lessons from past mistakes. If not, it's not going to be pretty.
I'm still waiting on the guys from NO. Haven't heard too much other than the usual praise-and-glory-be, but a complete new HC might be the way to go.
Munchak, Pagano, Caldwell are all retreads IMO. They're the type that will run a good team, have a good regular season, with an early exit from the playoffs. Good coaches, not sure they're SB coaches.
All the other coaches are high risk, high reward. Gase and McDaniels clearly have personality or professionalism issues, which isn't odd for NFL coaches, but there's a risk things could go sour quickly if they don't have their shit together. Both could also get things moving very quickly and we will be right back in the hunt next year. I worry about McDaniels bolting for NE as soon as BB retires also. Campbell and Carmichael are unknowns at this point, but based on things I've read it seems like either would be strong choices. Carmichael seems like the lowest bust risk as he likely will run a good offense and get Aaron Rodgers back on track, while Campbell seems like someone who could really change the culture.
These coaching hires are just like politics. Many say throw the incumbents outof office, throw the bums out, but they keep getting reelected. Many say don't hire a retread but who is getting most of the interviews? Guys who have already been NFL head coaches.
There is more to coaching than calling plays. The staff that’s assembled is paramount. And the next OC and STs coach are very important.
McDaniels seems to be the name that keeps floating to the top of list, having the offensive knowledge credentials that are hard to ignore and would seem to be very tempting given the Packers pathetic offensive performance of late and the AR issues. However, the Packers have always seemed to put a high value on "character" guys and a certain kind of image that blends with the Packer tradition. I'm not sure that Josh McDaniels fits that. Fitzgerald did, but as suspected he's not going anywhere. Unless one of the interviews this weekend knocks their socks off, I wouldn't be shocked that Caldwell is getting serious consideration. He seems to be the "safer" pick out of the bunch from a character standpoint and has the "CEO" quality that I'm guessing Murphy likes. If that were the case I'd want to see him put together a blockbuster staff. I feel the same way as many about "re-treads" but have doubts about Murphy wanting to stick his neck out too far.
I think McDaniels camp is the one that is keeping his name churned up as the top candidate for this job or multiple jobs. Personally, I think he's angling for Kraft to make a move with Belichick so he can stay there. I don't think McDaniels has any intention of leaving NE, but will if Kraft doesn't make a move. Wouldn't be surprised if GB made him an offer, he declines, and then we hear a rumor come out that this is Belichick's last year in NE.
I think Campbell would be good for GB. He is a TE coach in NO and would actually know how to use the TE position in the offense. The TE position was lost under MM. Hire Campbell, resign Marcedes Lewis, keep Tonyan then use them often underneath the coverage and down the middle of the field. Lewis was targeted only 4 or so times all season long. It's hard to build any kind of rapport with your QB, that way. He was used as a pass blocker slightly more than he was as a receiver. Lewis was pretty good in Jacksonville. Let's use him and Tonyan more often in our offense and move those chains!
I agree with the post above and think waiting for McBailout would be a mistake.