ROUND 1 PICK 12 - Rashan Gary DE/LB - Michigan

@Grave Digger posted:

Moving your team into cap hell just to win a SB sooner is exactly why the Broncos and other teams recently have been a shambles.

First, the Broncos have been "in shambles" since they won the Super Bowl in 2015, not because they have been in "cap hell" but rather because Elway has utterly failed to come up with a competent QB.

Second, please list all of the other NFL franchises who have supposedly been undone by this "CAP HELL" that that so many Packer fans seem to have been so worried about for so long.

Third, if the goal of the Green Bay Packers' organization (or at least some of the organization's fans) is to avoid this so called "CAP HELL" then Ted, Gute, Murphy and the boys have had one heck of a run from 2011 onward.

However, if the goal has truly been to get to another Super Bowl with one of the top QBs ever to play the game no matter how many resources it takes to get there, then the organization has failed miserably.

Not sure where it was posted but Josh Jackson was selected in the 2018 draft and Gute was the GM, not TT.

Other than Jaire Alexander the rest of that draft is looking like garbage.

Gute isn't going anywhere at least until 1265 sees how Love turns out.  He staked his job on that pick and has the luxury of a HOF'er being his transitional QB until then.

@SteveLuke posted:

First, the Broncos have been "in shambles" since they won the Super Bowl in 2015, not because they have been in "cap hell" but rather because Elway has utterly failed to come up with a competent QB.

Second, please list all of the other NFL franchises who have supposedly been undone by this "CAP HELL" that that so many Packer fans seem to have been so worried about for so long.

Third, if the goal of the Green Bay Packers' organization (or at least some of the organization's fans) is to avoid this so called "CAP HELL" then Ted, Gute, Murphy and the boys have had one heck of a run from 2011 onward.

However, if the goal has truly been to get to another Super Bowl with one of the top QBs ever to play the game no matter how many resources it takes to get there, then the organization has failed miserably.

Yes Denver failed to find a QB, but you're dead wrong about their cap management. In 2020 they have $13M in dead cap to Joe Flacco alone, who plays for the Jets I believe, in 2019 they had almost $30M in dead cap between Case Keenum, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon Marshall, Paxton Lynch, and a couple other players that contributed little to nothing that year. In 2018 they had over $20M in players that barely or didn't play for them. Same continues in previous years. They rented really good players short term, got lucky getting extreme production out of guys like Vonn Miller on rookie deals and then had to shed key starters every offseason just to afford to finally pay guys like Miller. That's when you have to stop and rebuild. It's not that I wouldn't love to go all-in and get Rodgers another ring, but I don't want to see lean years where we're rebuilding. That WILL happen if we start blowing capital and spending like the Broncos did. SB teams aren't built on bold moves, they're built on drafting well and getting quality production from players on rookie deals. Teams go into cap hell every year, its why we see veteran cuts in the offseason, rebuilding teams, etc. The Falcons were in the SB just 4 years ago and they have a QBs salary worth of dead money in 2020, they're essentially paying a starting QB to NOT pay for them.

The 2010 Packers had Clay Matthews, BJ Raji, Des Bishop, Bryan Bulaga, James Starks, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Jermichael Finley, and other key players on rookie or minimal deals based on their production. Even Rodgers was still on his "prove it" deal and wasn't paid like one of the top QBs. They got SO MUCH production for so little cost allowed them to afford other key veterans like Woodson, Driver, Jennings, Collins, etc. while still being able to sign vets like Howard Green mid-season. In summary: the answer to another SB is Gute needs to fucking draft better, we need more production from players on rookie deals, and we need veteran players to stop blowing chunks.

Pretty pretty good take.

@Grave Digger posted:

Yes Denver failed to find a QB, but you're dead wrong about their cap management. In 2020 they have $13M in dead cap to Joe Flacco alone, who plays for the Jets I believe, in 2019 they had almost $30M in dead cap between Case Keenum, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon Marshall, Paxton Lynch, and a couple other players that contributed little to nothing that year. In 2018 they had over $20M in players that barely or didn't play for them. Same continues in previous years. They rented really good players short term, got lucky getting extreme production out of guys like Vonn Miller on rookie deals and then had to shed key starters every offseason just to afford to finally pay guys like Miller. That's when you have to stop and rebuild. It's not that I wouldn't love to go all-in and get Rodgers another ring, but I don't want to see lean years where we're rebuilding. That WILL happen if we start blowing capital and spending like the Broncos did. SB teams aren't built on bold moves, they're built on drafting well and getting quality production from players on rookie deals.

As stated above, Denver is not (as you contend) in shambles on the field because it is or was in CAP HELL but rather because Elway missed on the 3 the QBs you mentioned (Lynch, Keenum, and Flacco and others).

And I love the notion of contending that Denver just "got lucky" to win the Super Bowl in 2015 when it signed a boat load of free agents while simultaneously proclaiming that "SB teams aren't built on bold moves."

Do the Patriots win their most recent "lucky" Super Bowls without "bold moves" such as signing top end free agents like Darrelle Revis and Stephon Gilmore -- not to mention the numerous other bargain bin free agent signings and by making more trades for players than any other NFL team?

You know they types of moves that put NE in CAP HELL?

Well, they don't at least according to their longtime coach & GM.

I know Belichik can't compare to the Pack's front office wizards, but maybe, just maybe, it might be worth considering BB's words from yesterday:

"That's what we did the last five years. We sold out and won three Super Bowls, played in a fourth, and played in an AFC championship game. This year we have less to work with. It's not an excuse. It's just a fact."

https://www.usatoday.com/story...-success/6133646002/

Then again, poor Patriots fans may well be ruing the fact that they may have to endure a couple of more lean years like 2020 after all those Super Bowl victories.

Indeed, I wonder if Patriots fans are jealous while watching a well-run, frugal organization like the Green Bay Packers win another NFC North Title ... before flaming out in yet another playoff beatdown at the hands of one of those "lucky" organizations that goes all in.

@Tschmack posted:

Not sure where it was posted but Josh Jackson was selected in the 2018 draft and Gute was the GM, not TT.

Correct, my mistake. Just Adams was a TT pick.

@SteveLuke posted:

As stated above, Denver is not (as you contend) in shambles on the field because it is or was in CAP HELL but rather because Elway missed on the 3 the QBs you mentioned (Lynch, Keenum, and Flacco and others).

And I love the notion of contending that Denver just "got lucky" to win the Super Bowl in 2015 when it signed a boat load of free agents while simultaneously proclaiming that "SB teams aren't built on bold moves."

Do the Patriots win their most recent "lucky" Super Bowls without "bold moves" such as signing top end free agents like Darrelle Revis and Stephon Gilmore -- not to mention the numerous other bargain bin free agent signings and by making more trades for players than any other NFL team?

You know they types of moves that put NE in CAP HELL?

Well, they don't at least according to their longtime coach & GM.

I know Belichik can't compare to the Pack's front office wizards, but maybe, just maybe, it might be worth considering BB's words from yesterday:

"That's what we did the last five years. We sold out and won three Super Bowls, played in a fourth, and played in an AFC championship game. This year we have less to work with. It's not an excuse. It's just a fact."

https://www.usatoday.com/story...-success/6133646002/

Then again, poor Patriots fans may well be ruing the fact that they may have to endure a couple of more lean years like 2020 after all those Super Bowl victories.

Indeed, I wonder if Patriots fans are jealous while watching a well-run, frugal organization like the Green Bay Packers win another NFC North Title ... before flaming out in yet another playoff beatdown at the hands of one of those "lucky" organizations that goes all in.

Belichick sold out because he's drafted like shit for a while. Ted Thompson's approach won 1 SB, I didn't say it was the right way, but the team was in contention every year. He drafted like shit too, if he had sold out like Belichick we probably would have more SBs. I'm not denying that a SB win is better than not winning a SB, but I would rather have a chance every year than just have a 1 year window like John Elway's method though. His team sucks because he mismanaged everything, including the cap, if you think they've been a QB away from winning more SBs then you're just wrong.

I don't know what move you think the team should make, you seem more interested in arguing about Denver, but you understand that there is a salary cap and there's a case to be made the team cannot afford to make a Gilmore-esque move? GB is going to have shed some guys next year just to afford to resign the quality young talent they have. They don't need "bold moves", they need to fucking draft better and catch good players on rookie deals. We already have a SB team, they just need to get their shit together and stop losing to inferior teams.

Denver is in shambles because John Elway is a terrible GM.  He’s the Isiah Thomas or Michael Jordan of the NFL.  Great player, but not good in the front office making personnel related decisions.

As for Gute, he’s basically staked his career on Jordan Love.   Especially when you consider all of the WR prospects that were there in R1 and R2.  Quite frankly, he may be on thin ice already.  Josh Jackson is a bust, Rashaun Gary can barely crack the rotation, and Darnell Savage has regressed terribly.   Perhaps it is the coaching that’s the real problem.  But Pettine and Gute should not be safe.  No way no how.  

Denver had more than a one year window with Manning.

The TT debate is interesting because despite passing on a lot of free agents and trades he built a very formidable roster for almost a decade.  His last couple of drafts left a lot to be desired but let’s not forget the franchise decided to hold onto McCarthy way too damn long.  Everyone should have been canned after the Seattle playoff debacle.

Had they gotten rid of MM and Compers earlier who knows how things may have turned out?   Murphy was too damn patient with all of them including TT.

@Grave Digger posted:

Belichick sold out because he's drafted like shit for a while. Ted Thompson's approach won 1 SB, I didn't say it was the right way, but the team was in contention every year. He drafted like shit too, if he had sold out like Belichick we probably would have more SBs.

BB did draft like shit.

But he did (and does) not limit his talent acquisition to just the draft and undrafted free agents.

BB has made more player trades than any other GM and signed both high-end and bargain basement free agents.

BB was/is not afraid of going all in.

And he has won 6 SBs and played in 3 others.

Denver likewise went all in and won a SB in 2015 after playing in another Super Bowl two years earlier.

Seattle under Schneider continually goes all in (at least in Packer terms). Schneider has 2 SB appearances and 1 SB win to his credit in less time than Ted spent as GM in GB. And going all in has not prevented them from being 6-1 this season.

Unlike BB, Ted drafted awesomely ... but only between 2005 and 2010. The drafting went to shit after 2010.

Also unlike BB, Ted avoided free agency like the plague and almost never traded away for a player and certainly for no players of consequence.

Gutey has publicly (and through his signings) disavowed Ted's disdain for free agency.

If Gutey is serious about the Packers competing for a Super Bowl ... in 2020 then he has every opportunity to break the Packers tradition of not trading for players in-season to cover holes on the roster.

Practically every other contender has made such a trade in 2020, it is really not a radical approach nor does it necessarily put these teams in "CAP HELL."

The Packers have 3 additional compensatory picks (10 total) in the 2020 draft.

If they are unwilling to unload one of those picks to upgrade the roster in what is a relatively down year for the NFC, then I guess we can applaud the organization for at least always being financially prudent.

Are there trophies for being financially prudent?

i suggest a Oracle Of Omaha bank book.

A lot of teams spend years in purgatory because they can't find a franchise QB. We've had the franchise QB part covered for 28 years with 2 of the top 10 or 20 all-time. We've been to 3 Super Bowls and won 2. We should have won about 5. If Holmgren doesn't leave, we probably win another 1 or 2 in the late 90s. If Wolf hired Andy Reid like he probably wanted to (instead of Ray Rhodes to cover him for not wanting to hire Sherm Lewis) the same thing happens. If Philbin's son doesn't drown the week of the Giants playoff game in 2011, they probably win that year. If TT would have used free agency to fill in some glaringly obvious holes at LB in the early 2010s, we probably win another one. The mid-2010s drafts were really bad too. Tolerating terrible special teams for years ended up costing us in Seattle. There's a lot of blame to go around, but it really comes down to defensive playmakers. Those guys make up for a lot of other mistakes.

But it usually comes down to playmakers. In years they have playmakers on defense close to their prime they won Super Bowls (Reggie White, LeRoy Butler, Charles Woodson, Nick Collins). The year of the Seattle debacle Julius Peppers was that guy. They don't have that guy on defense that can make game-changing plays. In a 5 year period in Green Bay, Charles Woodson returned EIGHT interceptions for TDs - EIGHT. In the 2010 Super Bowl run, Tramon Williams' pick 6 against the Falcons turned that game into a route and Collins' pick 6 in the Super Bowl ended up being the difference. If teams never throw at Jaire Alexander someone else has to make plays. So far, just Chandon Sullivan has (and that was scheme, not necessarily just a great individual play). They need a Woodson/Collins/Butler (and yes even Sharper) type playmaker. Savage, Amos, and King just don't give you that.

Bottom line with Gutey is that he appears to be continuing a disturbing trend of the later TT years: drafting that simply isn't good enough. Agree he's not going anywhere for a while but he needs to improve his performance for any sort of longevity in the position.

@SteveLuke posted:

If Gutey is serious about the Packers competing for a Super Bowl ... in 2020 then he has every opportunity to break the Packers tradition of not trading for players in-season to cover holes on the roster.

Practically every other contender has made such a trade in 2020, it is really not a radical approach nor does it necessarily put these teams in "CAP HELL."

The Packers have 3 additional compensatory picks (10 total) in the 2020 draft.

If they are unwilling to unload one of those picks to upgrade the roster in what is a relatively down year for the NFC, then I guess we can applaud the organization for at least always being financially prudent.

Forget the idea of cap trouble, where do they fit an "all-in" move under the cap right now? I mean at a very basic level, Will Fuller's base salary through the remaining 9 games will total $5.7M, right now we only have $7M. So right off the bat you're basically limiting yourself to just that move. I'm not saying you're advocating for that specific trade, but it's not going to be much different for another impact player. GB can basically only afford 1 impact player via trade or FA or whatever unless they work overdrive to renegotiate an extension to get some relief. I'm sure they're hoping to spread out Bakh's big contract over this year, but that means we have to pay him money this year, same for Aaron Jones.

So if we're talking a trade TODAY, it basically means we're putting off all extensions until the offseason. That's not a ridiculous thing, but if we're looking ahead to signing FA's or acquiring players in '21 via trade then it has an impact. You can't have everything. Somewhere the money has to make sense.

This is shocking. New Orleans is $95M over the cap in '21 right now. PIT is $20M over. KC $15M over. Lot of shedding that has to happen with this teams this offseason to get their houses in order. NO especially has a closing window. there will be talent available this offseason for GB to acquire.

2021 Salary Cap

@michiganjoe posted:

Bottom line with Gutey is that he appears to be continuing a disturbing trend of the later TT years: drafting that simply isn't good enough. Agree he's not going anywhere for a while but he needs to improve his performance for any sort of longevity in the position.

That's the killer.  As GD pointed out, if you don't have a segment of your young guys producing on rookie contracts you'd have to make a ton of "splash" moves, which is a danger unto itself.

Yeah great, he plays hard. So did Rudy Rudiger...this is the NFL...at some point hard work isn't enough if you're not making plays.

For a guy that is such a physical beast, and plays so hard, you'd think we'd get more JJ Watt like production. And yet...here we are.

To me, a guy you take at #12 overall needs to be a more disruptive force...you can say "well he doesn't get sacks but he disrupts plays and other guys benefit."

Bull...fuckin...shit. That's right there with "she's ugly as fuck, but has PERSONALITY FOR DAYS!!!"

My guess is this is the best version of Gary we will see until his contract year, and then he will explode forcing us to meet his demands, and then back to Gary 1.0

Something to consider, he looked pretty good very early on in the season. Then sustained a high ankle sprain which we all know will slow down any player, but especially a speed pass rusher.

Just maybe, starting with last night, that ankle is feeling much better. Let's see how he does moving forward. Beyond "trying hard", Gary got decent pressure last night several times. He also showed very good pursuit chasing down that RB near the goal line that prevented a TD.

I'll take that kind of effort every time. 

"Effort guys" are great for UDFAs and late round picks.  Need more from the #12 overall.  But hey, at least his name was called on the broadcast a couple of times last night.  Baby steps, right?

@Chongo posted:  ....

Bull...fuckin...shit. That's right there with "she's ugly as fuck, but has PERSONALITY FOR DAYS!!!"

AND... light on her feet!

@packerboi posted:

Something to consider, he looked pretty good very early on in the season. Then sustained a high ankle sprain which we all know will slow down any player, but especially a speed pass rusher.

Just maybe, starting with last night, that ankle is feeling much better. Let's see how he does moving forward. Beyond "trying hard", Gary got decent pressure last night several times. He also showed very good pursuit chasing down that RB near the goal line that prevented a TD.

I'll take that kind of effort every time.

FINE Pboi...you talked me off the ledge...

You can’t compare JJ Watt to Rashaun Gary.  Watt was an unheralded recruit but his work ethic and progression was almost unparalleled.   He had a dominant junior year at UW.  In retrospect, Watt is or was probably a better athlete than he gets credit for but it is what it is.

As for Gary, he was a much more highly regarded prospect.  He had a good career but nothing close to Watt in terms of being an impact player and producing consistently at a high level.

You take a guy 12th overall and you have to project he’s either a production machine or an elite athlete that could develop into a dominant player. IMO, I don’t see Gary as either of those examples.  

Season is half over...Gary has 1.5 sacks. If he has 1.5 sacks, coupled with his 2 last year, he will have fewer sacks in 2 years than Watt had in his first year.

I'm not expecting Gary to be Watt, but I certainly expect more than a couple sacks a season. 10 sacks is not an unreasonable number to expect.

Hope he gets there and the ankle sprain is the real problem.

Only halfway through the three-year period on which you can really only begin to judge a draft pick. Packers drafted him with the knowledge he was a project and fans need to show some patience.

I think that’s fine for a 4th round pick but Gary was taken 12th overall in the draft.  I don’t need 3 years to tell me it’s been a terrible return on investment.

Usually, pass rushers show you something right away.  He’s barely gotten snaps his first 20 games or so.  That’s not a very positive development.

@Tschmack posted:

I think that’s fine for a 4th round pick but Gary was taken 12th overall in the draft.  I don’t need 3 years to tell me it’s been a terrible return on investment.

Usually, pass rushers show you something right away.  He’s barely gotten snaps his first 20 games or so.  That’s not a very positive development.

Gary is judged by being a high first-round pick in the same way that AJ Hawk was. They are supposed to be in consideration for Pro Bowl spots and that wasn't/isn't the case for either. The thing is that they are what they are for opposite reasons.

AJ Hawk, despite being a top 5 pick, never really had the athleticism to be an impact guy. He was mostly in the right place and knew where to go, played hard, but his classic play was to tackle a RB after a 2-3 yard run and got dragged for another 2-3 yards after contact.

Rashan Gary is a tremendous athlete, plays hard, but just has weak football instincts. Some guys just have a feel for the game to make plays. Great athletes with these instincts turn out to be HOFers (Charles Woodson and Ed Reed).  Gary just doesn't have that to much of any degree.

@Tschmack posted:

I think that’s fine for a 4th round pick but Gary was taken 12th overall in the draft.  

Legitimate to criticize the team for investing that high a pick based on potential, but that doesn't change the fact that he was drafted as a project. Pretty silly to expect a sudden return on investment.

Weak football instincts?  He’s not a QB or middle linebacker.  Or OL.  He’s paid to rush the passer.   It’s not supernatural.

I think his motivation and effort is the problem.  Worse yet, maybe he’s not as good of an athlete as they thought with limited upside.  That’s not good.  

The comparisons to AJ Hawk are actually pretty good.  Hawk IMO was overrated athletically because of numerous other stud players around him.  At the next level, he was OK, but he ain’t no Bosa or Watt or Woodson that took their decent physical talent and simply outhustled and outworked just about everyone.  Plus their football IQ was off the charts.

I’ve watched a ton of Big Ten football.  Gary is just another guy.   He’s nothing special.

Actually his effort is the one thing people are noticing.

@Tschmack posted:

I think that’s fine for a 4th round pick but Gary was taken 12th overall in the draft.  I don’t need 3 years to tell me it’s been a terrible return on investment.

Usually, pass rushers show you something right away.  He’s barely gotten snaps his first 20 games or so.  That’s not a very positive development.

Your excessive man love for TJ Watt is showing.

The big difference now is there is a rookie salary cap so first round draft picks don't get paid stupid money. You can take chances on a draft pick. But "fans" always want immediate gratification.

Talking about JJ Watt’s athleticism, I saw a video of him a few years back doing a box jump that was almost inhuman.  Guys that big aren’t supposed to be able to jump that high, he has some freaky explosiveness.

I’m sure Gary is a fine athlete, I doubt he even comes close to Watt’s explosiveness and short area quickness though.

If the Packers drafted Gary knowing that he was a project and "needed a couple years" before realistically expecting weekly production, then it's another dumb reason to draft him.  They have a HOF QB now and are drafting players that'll help them in a few years.  Way to continue to waste the QB's final years.

I can't figure out which line of thinking is correct.  Are we expecting too much of the #12 overall?  Or does he get more time to "figure it out" because he's the #12 overall pick?

I think the issue is they are trying to do both, what's best now and what's best in 3 years.  Doubly difficult vs picking one and going for it.

Kechman had a funny line the other day.  "They're rebuilding around Love but AR is screwing it up by playing well enough to keep them at the bottom of the draft".

@DH13 posted:

I think the issue is they are trying to do both, what's best now and what's best in 3 years.  Doubly difficult vs picking one and going for it.

Kechman had a funny line the other day.  "They're rebuilding around Love but AR is screwing it up by playing well enough to keep them at the bottom of the draft".

This is the only thing that makes sense. They thought Rodgers was a descending player. Now they have a situation where a guy who says he wants to play until he's 40 (3 more years) is on pace for 4500 yards, 48 TDs, and 4 interceptions with a QB rating of 117.5. He's done this with his top 2 WRs missing 7 combined games and the top RB missing 3.

Unlike Favre, he's never said he was thinking of retiring after a season.

I'd like to give them a shot of truth serum and see if they thought this was possible. I think they expected him to be an "average" guy and move on in a year. Instead, he's going to probably be runner-up for MVP (Wilson) and they did NOTHING to improve the team for this year in the off-season.

@fightphoe93 posted:

I’m sure Gary is a fine athlete, I doubt he even comes close to Watt’s explosiveness and short area quickness though.

@Tschmack posted:

Weak football Instincts ??

I think his motivation and effort is the problem. Worse yet, maybe he’s not as good of an athlete as they thought...

It’s been said Gute puts a high value on athletic scores in the draft...too much so imo...draft football players.

One of the premier metrics is RAS (relative athletic score.) Shows speed, explosiveness, strength, etc....

Gary was off the charts. I agree with MP2 on Tschmacks bad take...by all accounts Gary is a gifted athlete, a hard worker and hustles, but so far has limited instincts. Hugely important for a defensive player to play with football intelligence and instincts ...even a OLB(man that was a bad take). Gary appears lacking in this category so far...huge negative that Gute either missed, or thought they could coach out of him ... gamble at the 12th pick

here are some pre-draft comparatives: 9.95 is ELITE .. but doesn’t mean your good at football.

JJ WATT HAD A 9.76 RAS.

ALL 3 ARE ELITE ATHLETES : It appears 2 of the 3 combine that with superior football instincts. Gotta hope the Packer coaches can improve Gary’s football smarts...he’s more than athletic enough to be a very good player.

@MP2, they will have a huge decision to make this coming offseason as far as AR still having very high draft value, if their intent is really to build around Love in a 3-4 year plan.  Considering Love will probably end the season never even having been activated on game day, they are probably at least another year away from him being even close to ready.  But we will see again in the draft if their strategy is any different than it was this last spring.

Another thing that's great about drafting "potential" is if they actually live up to that potential 3 years down the road now they've got a contract negotiation coming up.  Again, not getting production on their rookie contracts. 

Fuck, this isn't a proper rebuild or building for the future or win now, it's just a fucking mess.  Pick a fucking lane.