ROUND 1 PICK 12 - Rashan Gary DE/LB - Michigan

Well I’m glad it’s bad take.  At least it’s a take.  

Gary plays defensive line.  He rushes the passer.  It’s not rocket science.  In fact, I’d argue it’s the least intuitive position group on the field.  You aren’t making play calls.  You aren’t diagnosing schemes.  You are lining up and trying to beat the guy in front of you.

BTW, did you actually watch TJ Watt or JJ Watt play at Wisconsin?   They were the best players on defense.  Arguably in some games they were the best players on the field.   They were good athletes for sure.  But their intensity, effort, toughness and will to win the play or the down was there 100% of the time.  Relentless is what I think of with both guys.  Not unlike the Bosa brothers.  My guess is they operated full throttle whether in the weight room or preparations (studying opponents) or playing field.

Where was Gary in most games at Michigan?  Where’s the production?   The intensity?  If he were so damn good you’d see him easily visible on tape with your own eyes like the other players I mentioned. But it wasn’t there.  Not consistently anyway.  And it’s translated over to the Packers.

I think what truly separates good players from elite players is they are never satisfied and their competitiveness to beat the other guy or the other team is there all the time.   Plus they work and operate like it’s their last game or last play.  The Watt’s in particular because they weren’t on the radar like other prospects but in retrospect probably should have been.

@Tschmack posted:

Where was Gary in most games at Michigan?  Where’s the production?   The intensity?  If he were so damn good you’d see him easily visible on tape with your own eyes like the other players I mentioned. But it wasn’t there.  Not consistently anyway.  And it’s translated over to the Packers.

I think what truly separates good players from elite players is they are never satisfied and their competitiveness to beat the other guy or the other team is there all the time.   Plus they work and operate like it’s their last game or last play.  The Watt’s in particular because they weren’t on the radar like other prospects but in retrospect probably should have been.

I hear a lot of U of M football talk from alums at work. The buzz when Gary was there was that he might have been the best athlete the program had ever had on the DL. They were constantly perplexed why Gary didn't just dominate in college. The narrative here was that he was getting doubled all the time and opening up things for other guys.

I think he plays hard and a good teammate. It is just instincts. It doesn't help if you have explosiveness if the OL can use it against you. The Michigan coaches couldn't get it to translate and, so far Tshmack is right, he looks the same in the NFL.

This happens in all sports. GMs look at athletic measurables and think that their coaches will unlock it for guys that were just OK or above average in college and often discount guys who just make plays. Chris Borland (who was on track to be a great Pro before he retired) forced more fumbles in college than any defensive player in history yet lasted until the 3rd found because he lacked measurables. Christian Kirksey of all people was the linebacker that was drafted before Borland in the 3rd round.

In the NBA it results in decisions like the Wolves drafting Ricky Rubio and Johnny Flynn over Steph Curry even though Curry was one of the best college shooters in history (and, surprise surprise, Curry has been a great shooter in the NBA).

Sometimes the college playmakers don't translate to the NFL. I thought Jabrill Peppers (another U of M guy who just seemed to make plays in college but didn't have great measurables) would be a much better pro. But usually, guys who make plays in college make plays in the NFL. They process a skill that allows them to process information quickly and then act on it on the field.

@Henry posted:

Fuck, this isn't a proper rebuild or building for the future or win now, it's just a fucking mess.  Pick a fucking lane.

Exactly.  What are we doing here.  Playing just the tip game with going for the Title and at the same time signing a celibacy contract in sex Ed class.   Make up your mind JR.

You have to be careful about assuming guys will automatically translate to the NFL.  I actually called the Jabril Peppers pick.  I thought he was completely overrated despite some calling him Woodson part II.  He was short, not NFL fast, and played with a really good compliment of players around him. He was a bit of a tweener gimmick player on defense much like Johnny Manziel on offense.  It’s the AJ Hawk syndrome.  Hawk played on one of the most talented defenses in modern day college football.   He just wasn’t as good as advertised because of everyone else around him.  I see a lot of that with Gary as well.

Chris Borland and Russell Wilson just made plays. Both suffered from the dreaded “lack of ideal size and speed” measurables but I’m not sure there are two players in the Big Ten (recently anyway) that maximized their utility like those two.  And more importantly, they had the uncanny ability to make the huge play at the key moment.  

As for Gary, who knows?  To this day I still think the most physical freak of an athlete I’ve seen in the Big Ten in my time on defense is Lavar Arrington.   He had a solid career in the pros.  But he also had a mean streak and presence on the field.  Gary’s intangibles are sketchy at best.

And you had to rub it in with Rubio and Flynn?  Thank the Wolves GM (Kahn) for that debacle.  Rubio was soft and Flynn just couldn’t shoot.  Ugh.

Isn't Gary also like 21 or 22 this year?  Clark took a while to grow into his position.

23 next month.

@Tschmack posted:

Gary plays defensive line.  He rushes the passer.  It’s not rocket science.  In fact, I’d argue it’s the least intuitive position group on the field.  You aren’t making play calls.  You aren’t diagnosing schemes.  You are lining up and trying to beat the guy in front of you.

Gary plays OLB in a multiple 3-4 scheme. Way too simplified, and wrong, to say you line up without diagnosing and just beat the guy in front of you. If that were the case you could totally ruin the defense by missing your assignment, losing contain, leaving a gap open, etc... it would send you to the bench.

Just some examples of a 3-4 OLB responsibilities ::: If there is a 3 call to your side, line up in a 6 technique with C gap responsibility.

If there is a 5 call to your side and no tight end, line up in a 90 technique and play D gap.

If there is a 5 call to your side and a tight end, line up in a 9 technique and play D gap.

If there is a 7 call to your side line up in a 90 technique and play D gap. It does not matter if a tight end is present or not.

What do you do if they motion the FB, or go 2 TE, etc....what if it's a run ?

Again, Gary is a great athlete, but I think he's struggling with the instincts and multiple concepts....at least right now.

@Tschmack posted:

BTW, did you actually watch TJ Watt or JJ Watt play at Wisconsin?   They were the best players on defense.  Arguably in some games they were the best players on the field.   They were good athletes for sure.

Where was Gary in most games at Michigan?  Where’s the production?   The intensity?  

Absolutely. The Watt brothers have everything it takes from a size and athletic standpoint, work ethic, and football instincts...and production.  As per the initial debate, hopefully you now realize , Gary is a very good athlete and supposedly is working hard, but his football smarts/instincts are horrid. Maybe he learns, or maybe he'll never get it. I think we are in  agreement that you don't pick a guy at #12 who is missing key parts of the equation.

I'm not sure who you are debating with your constant obsession with  TJ Watt.

• We all think TJ Watt is a great player
• We all thought they should have drafted TJ Watt over Kevin King
• Many questioned Gute taking Gary at #12
• We all think nuking Hiroshima was a horrid decision, but we can't go back and re-write history.

Unless you think Gute reads this site ??

@Packdog posted:

Gary plays OLB in a multiple 3-4 scheme. Way too simplified, and wrong, to say you line up without diagnosing and just beat the guy in front of you. If that were the case you could totally ruin the defense by missing your assignment, losing contain, leaving a gap open, etc... it would send you to the bench.

Just some examples of a 3-4 OLB responsibilities ::: If there is a 3 call to your side, line up in a 6 technique with C gap responsibility.

If there is a 5 call to your side and no tight end, line up in a 90 technique and play D gap.

If there is a 5 call to your side and a tight end, line up in a 9 technique and play D gap.

If there is a 7 call to your side line up in a 90 technique and play D gap. It does not matter if a tight end is present or not.

What do you do if they motion the FB, or go 2 TE, etc....what if it's a run ?

Again, Gary is a great athlete, but I think he's struggling with the instincts and multiple concepts....at least right now.

Exactly. A lot more than just "beating the guy in front of you".

Packdog

I'm a TV football fan.  Watch a lot my entire life.  Have pretty good "casual fan" knowledge, IMO.  My eyes glassed over reading your post. Clearly you have much more knowledge than a casual fan.  Good read, although you made me feel dumber than the day before.

@PackLandVA posted:

Packdog

I'm a TV football fan.  Watch a lot my entire life.  Have pretty good "casual fan" knowledge, IMO.  My eyes glassed over reading your post. Clearly you have much more knowledge than a casual fan.  Good read, although you made me feel dumber than the day before.

Don't sell yourself short PacklandVA.  I thought you had the post of the year last year, at the end of the season, during the NFCCG when the Niners were running at will, when you posted:

"It's pretty clear what the problem is, the wide receivers aren't stopping the run."

This after an entire season of fans bitching about the WR position even though we went 13-3.  Great post.

(I mean I think it was you; correct me if I'm wrong.)

Gary does just not seem to have the ability to execute multiple "parts" simultaneously of what it takes to have consistent success. He is not able to disengage blockers while he is finding the ball. Appears that he still does things in "parts" rather than everything at once.

I think he is playing better than Preston.    He's certainly not fluid, but he can hold the point better and is more explosive IMO.   He had trouble a couple times vs San Fran breaking down in space, but overall played a good game.  Keep in mind I hated the Gary pick, still do.

@Pistol GB posted:

This after an entire season of fans bitching about the WR position even though we went 13-3.  ]

Are you seriously holding onto that take? 

@Henry posted:

Are you seriously holding onto that take?

Says he, who bitched the same bitch nonstop all the way through the draft, our first loss, the trade deadline and MVS’s 1st quarter drop Thursday,  only to go quiet as a mouse after he snags 2 TD’s.

Right in synch buddy.  Crazily holding onto the notion that Gute and MLF knew what they are doing all along.

Are you fucking kidding me?

You seriously believe the Packers have a solid WR corp?  Still?

Could you drag in some more bullshit like a 13-3 strawman to legitimize the turd festival at WR?  They went 13-3 in spite of the WRs not named Adams.

Jesus fucking christ.  Can you get some more of those awesome stats to show how great those WRs are in separation but it's a literal fucking toss up if they'll actually catch the ball?  What are Allison's stats this year?  Oh yeah, he's fucking gone because he sucked.  Who took his place?  Nobody fucking knows!  This WR corp is a giant block of unshaped clay.  Only problem is the clay is actually dog shit with leaves stuck in it.

How many passes has MVS dropped?  The guy is a one trick pony and he's not even very good at that trick.

Since you brought it up, do you actually think MVS making a play against SF JV squad is why I wasn't on the board?  Do you really want to poke the bear?  It usually doesn't end well for you.

No dude.  Bitch away.  It's what bitches do.

And yes, I think we are okay at WR.  More importantly, I think the professionals who know their draft  boards, the available free agents, the cap space, and most importantly, are the ones who watch these players every freaking day, know more than you do.

Yes I trust their judgement, and yes, they obviously believe in MVS and yes, so do I.   Try to remember Adams' sophomore slump before you go off half cocked: If it were up to you--personally you--he wouldn't even be on this team.

No, they can't get Pro Bowlers at every position. No team can.  But I think what we are looking at here is the best overall offense we've ever had, and with Martin and Barnes emerging at ILB, enough of a defense to match.  All the pieces are there.

Post what you want.  What I'm saying is, I honestly think this is the start of a Super Bowl run and I for one intend to enjoy it.  I'd prefer not to spend it arguing with you either, so get your last word in and I probably won't respond.

("Dog shit" -- got it.)

You are truly a fucking idiot.

There's just nothing else to say.

Let's convert Gary to a WR.
Problem solved.

JFC we all didn’t think TJ Watt should have been drafted over King and Biegel.  Many on this board thought we got a steal with both!!!  Despite ignoring injury history on both guys.

And just to be clear Gute had nothing to do with it.  That was TTs draft.  Get the goddamn GM right before any critique on Gary’s so called “instincts” or lack thereof.

The next thing I’ll hear is the offense is too complex for MVS and we are offending his sensibilities.  At least he was only a 5th rounder.  Rashaun Gary was taken 12th overall.  What the hell. MVS was taken in the 5th round for a reason.  Maybe he ain’t too fucking good.  How’s that for an explanation. What’s Gary’s excuse?  Oh he works hard. Good for him.  He’s a great athlete.  So are 80% of NFL players.  I think his effort sucks.  I don’t think he pushes himself enough.  He might not be that smart or tough.  After all, what else can it be?  

Honestly I don’t GAF.  TJ Watt was sitting there and they passed on him.  We took a corner that has missed 50% of his games, spent 100MM on the Smiths and drafted Gary 12th.   At least 2 of those 3 decisions don’t need to be made if goddamn TT makes the easy and safe choice with TJ Watt and we are still paying for it today.

I wanted TJ Watt as well in that slot, but a lot of that is that I'm a Badger fan and I lived in the Waukesha/Pewaukee area for 4 years in college. I also had a colleague that played with JJ Watt when he was at Central Michigan before transferring to Wisconsin. I figured I was just overrating him because of personal bias.

TJ Watt was the 10th DE or LB drafted that year (and the 19th defensive player).  A lot of other teams passed him up as well. His scouting report lists some weaknesses that are ridiculous in retrospect.

https://walterfootball.com/sco...report2017tjwatt.php

Weaknesses:

• Has speed, but not extremely explosive

• Not twitchy or overly agile

• Needs to improve pass-rush moves

• One-year wonder

If they redo that draft, he's probably the second defensive player taken (Myles Garrett). He's also probably top 5-6 overall (Mahomes, Watson, Garrett, McCaffrey, Kamara).  The other guy that would be in the running is another Badger (Ramczyk). 

Again, a lot of GMs missed on TJ Watt. King is a decent player that struggles to stay healthy. At least we didn't trade up one spot in the first round and give up high 3rd and 4th round picks to draft Trubisky. And, we at least got a player who could help win games the first two years we had him on our roster.

Gute took a big risk taking Gary at #12. Most observers, fans and “draft gurus” alike, thought so. Even though many didn’t like the choice, we are still rooting for him to succeed. His athleticism is hard to deny, he just needs to translate it ....something that gets GM’s raises....or fired.   Still too early to call him a stud ... or a bust. TBD

Again, we all think TJ Watt is a great player .  But some of what you continually and incessantly post regarding TT missing on him ... might just be a bit revisionist (Tscmack’s first post when Kevin King was drafted) :

TschmackMember

I'm good with the first two picks.  Ted has had pretty good success drafting DBs over the years and it was certainly a position of need.

@Packdog posted:

Some of what you (people ™) continually and incessantly post might just be a bit revisionist (Tscmack’s first post when Kevin King was drafted) :

Fixed.

I've never opined as to whether a pick was good or bad...I don't even pretend that I'm an N.F.L. talant evaluator like many (mostly insurance salesman , carpenters, cheese-makers and foot doctors) pretend like they are.

RE: TJ Watt.

In the game yesterday PIT split him out to cover CD Lamb. Garrett through a TD.

I will guess Pittsburgh takes that play out of the playbook. I hope thevPackers did the same.

How could an NFL coach think a lamb v watt or P.Smith v any WR weren't TDs waiting to happen?

Mis-matches like that are what dreams are made of. Pettine is such a rocket sturgeon. /S

@Blair Kiel posted:

Fixed.

I've never opined as to whether a pick was good or bad...I don't even pretend that I'm an N.F.L. talant evaluator like many (mostly insurance salesman , carpenters, cheese-makers and foot doctors) pretend like they are.

You can be so transparent.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

I wanted TJ Watt as well in that slot, but a lot of that is that I'm a Badger fan and I lived in the Waukesha/Pewaukee area for 4 years in college.

Did you go to Carroll?

@Blair Kiel posted:

Fixed.

I've never opined as to whether a pick was good or bad...I don't even pretend that I'm an N.F.L. talant evaluator like many (mostly insurance salesman , carpenters, cheese-makers and foot doctors) pretend like they are.

Hey, don't knock cheesemakers!  You would die without them!!! 

Eat cheese or die!!!!!!!!!!!

@DH13 posted:

Did you go to Carroll?

Yes. Graduated in 1991

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

Yes. Graduated in 1991

There are 2 good things about Waukesha.

1. Triple Cripples and 5 cent wings at that shit hole..  Can't recall the name.  500 Club maybe?
2. PonzaRotta's.  If I was on death row, this would be the meal.

Regarding TT's 2010 to 2017 drafts--he had a terrible 2015 draft, otherwise, not bad.  TT struggled in the first round in that era, but made up for it late.

I have been very harsh on Gute's drafts and certainly Gary---but  I admit it's too early. Several of these players could develop- including Gary...But for me, stats/analytics aside--all you have to do is watch the Packers D line begging to line up against reserve niner tackle Justin Skule and everybody just eating his lunch..... except Gary....Skule looked like me when he lined up against the Smiths and Forrest Gregg when Gary was across the line from  him. He just shut him down...It was laughable.

@BrainDed posted:

There are 2 good things about Waukesha.

1. Triple Cripples and 5 cent wings at that shit hole..  Can't recall the name.  500 Club maybe?
2. PonzaRotta's.  If I was on death row, this would be the meal.

Jimmy's Grotto. Two of our kids also went to Carroll and I'd make it a point to visit the Grotto whenever we were in town. It's good I don't live too close because eating too many Ponzas will cut years off your life. For those who don't know, it's basically a Pizza folded upon itself and deep fried. You cut the first piece of crust and the grease just streams out.

Damn.

I don't think anyone would notice Gary's lack of production if our 2 starters were making the impact they're paid to make. If we were getting sacks, pressuring the QB, and stopping the run then no one would have a problem being patient with Gary. Overall defensive issues magnify deficiencies across the board. In reality Gary was drafted because 1) his H/W and athleticism is off the charts good, that's not an opinion it's a measurable fact 2) they believe he has the right attitude/effort to match his elite athleticism and 3) they already had 2 quality starts (+ Fackrell in '19) that they could be patient with Gary. It's only year 2 and I think we can all agree he's made an improvement...not as much as we would like, but noticeable improvement. Preston Smith will be sent packing this offseason and Gary will become a full time starter, that will be the true test of whether he's a bust or not honestly. Right now none of the OLBs are playing particularly well, so is it a Gary problem or an overall problem with the defense? Gute spending some capital to bring in DL reinforcements next to KC will help everyone tremendously.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

Jimmy's Grotto. Two of our kids also went to Carroll and I'd make it a point to visit the Grotto whenever we were in town. It's good I don't live too close because eating too many Ponzas will cut years off your life. For those who don't know, it's basically a Pizza folded upon itself and deep fried. You cut the first piece of crust and the grease just streams out.

Class of 94.  Been way too long since my last ponzarotta.  Or maybe that's why I'm still alive.

@Pakrz posted:

Damn.

Yes, that is correct.  They're near legendary to the area.  Many students swore by them as a hangover cure.  The ponza may be the perfect disgustingly delicious self-contained meal.  You don't have appetizers before or with it and you don't have desert after.  But you probably will need a nap.

Drafting Gary reminds me a lot of the Giants drafting Jason Pierre-Paul in 2010. They had a ton of resources already invested in Umenyiora, Tuck, Kiwanuka, and Canty in that DL and then picked a super raw, high ceiling prospect in JPP. He burst onto the scene in year 2, which we obviously haven't seen from Gary, but they're similar prospects in a lot of ways. I won't be surprised honestly if Gary burst on the scene next year in similar fashion, I equally won't be surprised if we never see him produce more than he is. It's the gamble of a boom/bust prospect.