Talkin2Phil posted:I see some blocked field goals in our future!
I think Crosby will shake it off and be fine
PackerJoe posted:Thompson really seems to put a ton of value into workout numbers when drafting defense. And when you get into the defensive front seven, the short shuttle and 3-cone drill times seem to be even more important to Thompson.
Somebody here a couple years ago put together a spreadsheet that showed TT's tendencies through analysis of stats and measureables of his draft picks. He then offered predictions of picks based on which prospects fit those measureables. I don't recall how accurate he ended up being but it sounds like the same direction you're going in.
I've seen too many championship caliber Packer teams struggle after losing their starting defensive tackle. This pick makes good sense to me.
Rusty posted:Diggr14 posted:Well, he hasn't drafted very well this decade. Maybe people are making excuses for him still. He's cashing that AR-12 check hard and has been for a while. Fell into his lap.
Hey!! Who let the cockroaches in?!
GB was 21st in rushing defense giving up 4.5 yards a carry. They needed to "get that fixed" as MM would say and this kid goes a long way in doing that.
If AR and company get back on track on offense (and I fully expect they will), and this Packer defense can improve their run defense couple that with this promising secondary, well, look out. It's very cliche but it's also true. Games are won and lost in the trenches. The Packers needed DL depth and youth/speed.
They got it with Clark. I like the pick!
I am hardly an "in TT I trust" devotee, but I am having a hard time understanding why so many fans seem upset by the selection of Kenny Clark?
NT/DLine was a need BEFORE Raji stepped away. It was imperative that TT add some quality on the DLine and, unless someone has a crystal ball, Clark looks to be as promising as anyone who was on the board, so what is the problem?
PS With all of his Pac-12/California high-schooler picks, TT obviously places significant trust in Sam Seale's opinion on players, so I'd love to know what Sam thinks about S'ua Cravens who played high school ball just down the road from Clark.
Well informed fans who did their homework and read up on this pick are liking this pick. Casual fans or fans who have hate for TT no matter what of course don't like it. This is a board for the most part who have very well informed fans. And you will see the vast majority here see this as a promising pick and a good move.
Diggr14 posted:Well, he hasn't drafted very well this decade. Maybe people are making excuses for him still. He's cashing that AR-12 check hard and has been for a while. Fell into his lap.
Most of TT's success has come in the mid to late rounds. In the past decade, he hasn't done well in the first round:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft20...ston-texans-top-list
27. Green Bay Packers
Surplus AV per pick: Minus-2.4
Biggest hit: Clay Matthews (No. 26, 2009 draft)
Biggest miss: Justin Harrell (No. 16, 2007 draft)
Green Bay ranking 27th on any draft list doesn't seem right. The Packers and GM Ted Thompson have consistently built through the draft, and they are among the top drafting teams based on overall surplus AV. While Green Bay has been able to find late-round value better than any other team in the league, its first-round picks in the past decade (particularly the past five seasons) are full of missed opportunities.
(Admittedly, this doesn't take AR into consideration since it's only the past 10 years)
All first round picks should make the Pro Bowl every season they are in the league. At least that is what the expectation seems to be. The draft is a complete crap shoot. It seems to me that the mid round guys work harder to make the team and become better players.
I was a little surprised by the pick but not unhappy about it. I was hoping for Ragland just because it seems that most great defenses have dominant linebackers (Nitschke, Butkus, Lewis, Singletary, etc). TT doesn't seem to put much importance to the ILB position.
the only honest complaints that can be made against TT for his bad first round picks can be:
harrell for his known injury history
perry for being a 4-3 end not a 3-4 LBer
the rest are normal misfires or injury issues which happens to every team.
The pick is fine. It addresses one of the areas of need. Seems like a solid kid. Feels like a typical Thompson pick. Hope he's the next BJ Raji!
I personally believe that this defense will be subpar until we can get an actual NFL quality Inside Linebacker. And, while I wish one of those would have been available at 27, it doesn't appear that was the case. But, again, solid pick and nothing to complain about with much vigor - outside of a couple trolls that will complain about everything in order to get people riled up.
I think the DT draft crop was very hard to compare to each other b/c they’re so different. Chris Jones has a sky high ceiling as a pass rusher but bigger bust potential. Robinson and Reed are likely high floor/low ceiling run stoppers with almost no pass rush. Billings is an NT and that’s about it. Butler ahs it all but is super raw and didn’t put up that good of production against weak competition. I could go on but there is no “best” DL, just “different”.
In reading more about Clark, sounds like he’s the most versatile guy with the best chance to develop as a pass rusher while being able to contribute as a run stopper on early downs. I’d like this pick much more if they would have gotten him 10 picks later and picked up a 4th, then used that 4th to move up in the 2nd only b/c I thought Clark would be there later and as we saw, the Broncos and 49ers moved up. But that’s only based on mock drafts I’ve seen and as we’ve learned this year, those mock drafts are meaningless. Plus, trades are never simple. Maybe there were no trade partners at #27.
Something to watch today……..TT using his 4th rounder to move up in the 2nd if a player drops. He rated CMIII as a top ten guy and when he dropped to the 20’s, he got him. I wonder if there is a guy TT has rated in the 20’s that makes it to 40’s and he trades up. Probably not but there is a lot of talent on the board right now……..
Yeah I'm kind of expecting that 4th to come in to play as well. He loves his 4th round picks, but seems as though there will be some real talent within reach of our r2 pick.
The thing about trading down is, as we saw with Seattle & SF, someone may jump in front of you & trade up to grab "your guy."
You'll notice Seattle drafted a Guard after the Niners jumped in front of them and drafted a Guard.
Some people forget the other guys get paid too.
Boris posted:The thing about trading down is, as we saw with Seattle & SF, someone may jump in front of you & trade up to grab "your guy."
You’re definitely right Boris and maybe Kenny Clark was “TT’s guy”. Maybe the guys we kicked around (Reed, Robinson, Billings, Butler, Ragland, Jack, etc.) weren’t even close to Clark on TT’s board. Maybe Clark was a top 10 guy on TT’s board in which case trading back would have been stupid. But most of us (with our limited knowledge) considered Clark as a pretty similar prospect to those other guys, which is when a trade down makes sense: get a similar rated player all while picking up a another pick (ie: like when TT traded back and got Lacy). Either TT disagreed that Clark was a similar player to those other guys, or he never found a trade partner (as I stated earlier, some teams don’t trade with each other so maybe 49ers never called TT). So much we will never know. Hell, we’re still debating whether or not Crabtree was higher on TT’s board than Raji.
Just speculation, but judging how it went down and the comments from TT after the pick would seem to indicate that Clark was very highly rated on their board. Appears Denver wanted to trade up and I think TT simply didn't want to risk losing the guy they really wanted.
The more I find out about Clark the more I love the pick.
Boris posted:The thing about trading down is, as we saw with Seattle & SF, someone may jump in front of you & trade up to grab "your guy."
You'll notice Seattle drafted a Guard after the Niners jumped in front of them and drafted a Guard.
Some people forget the other guys get paid too.
Apparently same thing happened with the Texans. I thought it was odd that the Texans only moved up one spot (swapping picks with Wash) to pick a WR. Well turns out they did it because the Vikings were trying to move up to get Washington's pick, and the Texans wanted to make sure they got "their guy" at WR.
The funny part is that all 3 teams ended up grabbing a WR, which means MN had two more WRs go before they got their pick...and they picked a WR anyway.
They were never taking Ragland in round 1 after the aorta problem was revealed.
The key is pass rush. Look at the draft before us. QBs, CB, WR and edge rushers ruled. High rated run stuffers sat on the board. Nobody wanted thumpers. In the college game, those run stuffers and thumpers control the game, but in the NFL, its all about the pass and stopping the pass. Thus Clark becomes our pick and not the mock draft picks from Alabama who offer little in pass rush.
Part of our pass rush problems came because no one collapsed the pocket and the edge rushers could not get home. The QBs just step up.
SteveLuke posted:I am hardly an "in TT I trust" devotee, but I am having a hard time understanding why so many fans seem upset by the selection of Kenny Clark?
I don't think anyone is really upset with Clark, per se, just that there seemed to be a lot of comparable talent also there in Butler, Reed, Robinson, etc. and both Seattle and KC got nice trade down offers not moving very far. Heck, Carolina, with a very good history of drafting DLinemen, two stud starters, and garbage at OT jumped all over Butler at 30.
Herschel posted:Heck, Carolina, with a very good history of drafting DLinemen, two stud starters, and garbage at OT jumped all over Butler at 30.
Which is the definition of drafting BPA.
No telling if they would have JUMPED ALL OVER Clark if he had been there. Our perceptions of what is needed is obviously not of any consequence. TT sounded rather ecstatic at being able to get him so. Time will tell.
excalibur posted:They were never taking Ragland in round 1 after the aorta problem was revealed.
I'm convinced we wouldn't have taken Ragland even without any problems. "Thumpers" aren't where the NFL is headed. Light, agile and quick LB's are. Spread offenses have changed the game. Ragland is a great player but he's a player of a different era.
That is half true. You still need to stop the run in today's NFL and we didn't do a good job of that last year. Clark was drafted to help that more than to help the pass rush.
In a 34 it doesn't matter who is at ILB if your DL can't eat blocks.
Maybe Edie should play DL.
Capers will find a way to misuse him
hof1991 posted:Part of our pass rush problematic came because no one collapsed the pocket and the edge rushers could not get home. The QBs just step up.
Might be the post of this thread. Spot on and Clark was drafted with that in mind. He may have been the best run/pass DL on the board at 27.
We could have had Smith or Jack in round 1 and then Reed in the 2nd. We probably won't have another chance to get top ten talent at ILB again until Rodgers retires.
Hope this kid is worth it.
Easy to look back and say who should draft in round 1, knowing who is available in round 2. Not exactly reality though......
Knee injuries are not something you mess around with players who need explosiveness, Every medical staff in the league said two top 5 players were not worth it in round 1. That says something. And did we really want Justin Harrell 2.0 with our first round pick?
BrainDed posted:We could have had Smith or Jack in round 1 and then Reed in the 2nd. We probably won't have another chance to get top ten talent at ILB again until Rodgers retires.
Hope this kid is worth it.
Or maybe the Cowboys take Reed early in the 2nd if GB takes Smith in R1.
See how that speculation game works?
See Clark's TD catch in the video from the original post? I think he's our future deep threat at TE as well. With the size of that ass, you know he's busted many seams...in his pants.
The one draft that sticks out of late was 2013. They had a very nice draft that season. Otherwise, they really have been average at best drafting. I still have hope for HHCD - to answer the response from earlier. He could develop nicely, but they have had major errors drafting DL plays (except Daniels) and LBs. Hopefully this years class will change that. But really, overall.. they've been pretty average at best drafting and yes I acknowledge that they have worse position than other teams in the draft and that is definitely part of it.
To say you'd not rather have any other GM running this team is just moronic. There are at least 10 better GMs (maybe more) for this current roster. Rodgers brings us at least 3-4 extra wins / year - even in down a year he still was that much better than any replacement. He really covers up for some ugly deficiencies that we have on our team which there are many and we saw that last season. To have a GM that refuses to use Free agency as a strategic tool is silly - and will be telling the next few years during Rodgers' sunset years with the Pack. They should do everything they can to win another Super Bowl or two.. but will likely just be content with building 9-11 win teams that get bounced due to talent or poor coaching in the playoffs.
They really do need to change coaches / GM - and should have done it this offseason, the direction of the team was pointing downward last season and maybe they fix it. But, they will need some huge strides to be made by some of these guys picked in the last 3 drafts (including big roles for a few rooks in this class).
This is a 5-7 win team with an average quarterback running the show. As I said prior. TT is still cashing in on that AR-12 chip because that one player has masked serious deficiencies in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
So, we should choose 10 of the GM's who passed on Rodgers, because the guy who picked Rodgers actually benefits from Rodgers. Yes, that makes sense to me.
I posted this last time you went on a "TT sucks" rant:
http://www.sportingnews.com/li...nts-jets-49ers-colts
A good GM would find a way to have a top 10 draft pick every year
He is so right. Any other a team with a top QB would still win as many games without that top QB because those teams have less deficiencies and having a top QB clearly doesn't affect the number of games you win.
I'm curious who the 10 GMs are. I'm also curious who the bar is for drafting. Billy B is usually the measuring stick by which GMs are measured, but he seems to draft poorly on a regular basis as evidenced by the fact that he delves into FA probably more than he would like. I'm curious who has drafted consistently better over a 12 year period. You could argue John Schneider has been better in some ways, but his team building model has shifted now that he's paying a QB. Bill B is a better GM, no one is arguing that. Normally Kevin Colbert and Ozzie Newsome are in the conversation as top GMs, but they're on their own SB drought. Dave Gettleman has had 1 year of success, Steve Keim has had a couple years as has the immortal John Elway. Let's see after 12 years if their teams are still drafting well and holding together though. This is the same debate that has been on X4 for years though, would you rather be a perennial contender or would you rather pay to win now and sacrifice success down the road.
If TT hadn't had the balls to draft Rodgers back when he had a Hall of Fame QB on the roster, we'd probably be doing things like packaging 6 premium picks to get a QB who went 14-23 as a starter (Goff) or 5 premium picks for a player who couldn't beat out another QB who was the starter for Waupaca High School before he went to North Dakota St. (Wentz). The most important thing a GM has to do is get a QB and he did that. No way Mike Sherman makes that Aaron Rodgers pick in 2005.