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The idea that you'd even consider moving on from Rodgers at this point is mind-boggling. I got moving on from Favre because he threatened to retire every year for each of the 2-3 years before drafting Rodgers. You have Rodgers playing at an MVP level and under contact until 2023. And it's in an era where Brady and Brees are playing well into their 40s. It just doesn't make sense.

To be fair, it seemed to be a consensus among fans/talking heads last season/this offseason that Rodgers was severely in decline due to his efficiency/production drop in 2019. I would never count Rodgers out of ANYTHING, even if he's a grandpa in football years.

This is all wild speculation on my part, but I think it's less about moving away from Rodgers specifically and more about moving away from his Top 5 cap hit. His cap hit is $36M next year, that's more than GB is spending on their entire defensive front 7 in 2020. That's unsustainable IMO. You HAVE to hit on a good chunk of draft picks who can produce immediately and there's little margin for error. You remove that barrier and you have some wiggle room to shore up immediate deficiencies.

I think that GB extended Bakh so he is around to protect Love, for a season or two. I think Dillon being drafted in the second round means Jamaal Williams will be gone, and not Aaron Jones. I think Kevin King is gone after this season, even though I like what he brings to the game. Being injured all the time has made the decision to move on from him, a lot easier. I wonder if Gute ever thinks what would have happened, if he went for TJ Watt with King's pick? Turner plays better at RT than he does at RG. He also played better at LT than he did at either RG or RT. I thought the play of our O Line, when Bakh went down, would have given Gute something to think about, regarding re-signing Bakh. Wrong there! Linsley has had a solid season for us, so far. I think he will get re-signed. We need a solid draft and to maybe pick up a couple players in FA. ILB, DT, DB and WR remain concerns.

To be fair, it seemed to be a consensus among fans/talking heads last season/this offseason that Rodgers was severely in decline due to his efficiency/production drop in 2019. I would never count Rodgers out of ANYTHING, even if he's a grandpa in football years.

This is all wild speculation on my part, but I think it's less about moving away from Rodgers specifically and more about moving away from his Top 5 cap hit. His cap hit is $36M next year, that's more than GB is spending on their entire defensive front 7 in 2020. That's unsustainable IMO. You HAVE to hit on a good chunk of draft picks who can produce immediately and there's little margin for error. You remove that barrier and you have some wiggle room to shore up immediate deficiencies.

That would make sense if we didn't just pay record money to the LT.   

I think Gute was committed to moving on but Rodgers performance has now left him in a pickle.  They should have, and they owed it to Rodgers, to go win now mode for at least 2 years before starting the rebuild.   

I like that they locked him up, even it might be too expensive of a contract. What I'm more concerned with is how this coincides with the 2022 salary cap hits of Rodgers ~$40mm, Clark ~$21mm, Z. Smith ~$21mm, and P. Smith ~$17mm.

Is there breakdown of Bakhtiari's cap hits yet? Regardless of the numbers, 2022 almost seems like the Packers will be doing the opposite of the Kirk Cousins disaster where their entire cap was sacrificed to keep the QB.

Absent a restructure, is there any way for Rodgers to stay after 2021?

Last edited by NumberThree
@mrtundra posted:

I wonder if Gute ever thinks what would have happened, if he went for TJ Watt with King's pick?

Ted Thompson is responsible for the Kevin King over TJ Watt selection, not Gutey.

And, like much of the fan base, I'm sure Gutey wishes the Packers had selected the possible 2020 defensive player of the year Watt instead of the oft-injured and pretty average CB King ...

JUST LIKE THE REST OF THE FRONT OFFICE OTHER THAN THEN GM TED THOMPSON WANTED TO DO BACK IN 2017 ...

β€œJust about everyone (in the front office) was on board with Watt,”

https://247sports.com/nfl/gree...-TJ-Watt--123776607/  

but, but, but ... A team source said Thompson was never high on Watt,

https://www.packersnews.com/st...ing-king/2082910002/

Reports are that Bakh will get 48 million in the next 3 months. Yes, that's a lot of money up front but same reports are that this will actually turn out to be a fairly cap friendly structured deal that could allow them to sign Aaron Jones, eventually Alexander and perhaps Lindsey.

I just keep going back to what Bakh said in an interview about 2 months ago. And that was the bottom line is:

If a team wants to sign and keep a core player they don't want leaving, they can and will figure it out. And the team he said was a prime example is the Chiefs. The Chiefs basically had 150K in cap room and through restructuring deals and moving around cap dollars, signed Mahomes, T Kelce, and Chris Jones  to mega deals. And they aren't alone. Teams like the Whiners and Cryboys do this shit all the time.

Yes, the Patriots are in cap hell now but that's also for very short sighted contracts like Antonio Brown and years and years of bad contract signing. We are talking about signing a premiere LT, the 2nd most important position behind QB.

I think fans have to stop looking at how the cap works and think it's 2005. It's not. These dollars and structuring gets finagled all the damn time. Team after team does this and us fans always sit here dumbfounded thinking "how can they do this?! How can this deal be done ?!"

IMO, it's one of the main reasons that did Ted Thompson in. He could never get past operating like it was 2005. So many guys we could have signed in FA and been fine. He didn't and the talent of the team suffered for it.   

Last edited by packerboi
@SteveLuke posted:

Ted Thompson is responsible for the Kevin King over TJ Watt selection, not Gutey.

And, like much of the fan base, I'm sure Gutey wishes the Packers had selected the possible 2020 defensive player of the year Watt instead of the oft-injured and pretty average CB King ...

JUST LIKE THE REST OF THE FRONT OFFICE OTHER THAN THEN GM TED THOMPSON WANTED TO DO BACK IN 2017 ...

β€œJust about everyone (in the front office) was on board with Watt,”

https://247sports.com/nfl/gree...-TJ-Watt--123776607/  

but, but, but ... A team source said Thompson was never high on Watt,

https://www.packersnews.com/st...ing-king/2082910002/

Jesus we need to add TJ Watt to the banned phrases on this site. I’m sick of it.

100% PBoi, I have no concerns about the cap hit. It’s big numbers, but things get pushed around, paid out, whatever. That’s why I really want to see the year to year breakdown because I think it’s going to be very interesting.

I think Ted was really focused on not getting burned by overpriced UFAs. Ironically one of the few times he bought into UFA was with Woodson and that was a HOF move. I honestly think he 1) had trouble selling GB to UFAs because he wasn’t super interested, so the ones he did want he couldn’t muster the enthusiasm to land them and 2) he had supreme overconfidence in his drafting ability to fill gaps.

Kevin King is a decent player.  He’s not average IMO.  While he’s not an All Pro he’s certainly in the upper half to upper third of starting CBs in the league.   The issue is he’s unreliable due to his health and Alexander overshadows him by a wide margin as he’s probably a top 5 CB in the league.

No one has lamented TJ Watt more on this board than me.   And I was a big TT supporter.  

It’s always the trickle down impact of moves that come back to haunt you.  I highly doubt Gute drops huge money on both of the Smiths if Watt is around.  Or drafts Gary at 12 overall.  That’s the issue.  And you can’t extend Kevin King - much like the Bucks couldn’t with Malcolm Brogdon. He just can’t stay healthy long enough to justify it.

As for Bak, on a personal level I’m happy for the guy. He’s earned it and was well deserving of that financial recognition. But I’m not sure it’s good for the financial well being of the team.   You can’t sign and extend everyone.  To me, this move signals one of two things - 1) they won’t extend Aaron Jones or 2) Aaron Rodgers won’t be around much longer.    Coming into this year I would have signed Bak over Jones but right now Jones is more impactful and I’m sorry Dillon isn’t Jones.  I’m not even sure he’s Jamaal Williams.

To that extent, it’s frustrating Gute didn’t go all in and trade for a DL or LB or WR at the deadline.  Yes it would have involved a 2nd or 3rd rounder.  But the Packers are close.  Real close.  And why not take that shot this year?  

@Tschmack posted:


To that extent, it’s frustrating Gute didn’t go all in and trade for a DL or LB or WR at the deadline.  Yes it would have involved a 2nd or 3rd rounder.  But the Packers are close.  Real close.  And why not take that shot this year?  

That's my biggest frustration - not adding some DL help. I get why you don't add a WR at the deadline. A lot of the effectiveness of a WR has to do with timing and reps with the QB. It's hard to get that adding a guy mid-year.

A LB might be the same thing since there are a lot of things schematically you have to learn.

On the other hand, adding a good run-stuffing (or at least someone who can put up some mild resistance) DL is a potentially quick fix. There's a lot less playbook study for a guy whose job is basically taking on the guy in front of you and prevent them from getting to the LBs behind you or to command a double team. Howard Green was signed off the street on October 27 in 2010. Adding a guy like that even for a 4th or 5th round pick would have been the best move. Maybe there was no one like that available, but even casual fans can identify the run defense as their biggest problem and it's even worse now when you hear from the announcers yesterday that a 1-win Jags team is making remarks about how you can beat the Packers by playing physical football.

@vitaflo posted:

Yup.  If you pay attention to people when asked about the cap next year, especially w/r/t Jones, there's usually a comment about "tough decisions" next year, which really just means he's not getting paid.  That's all the more true now with Bakh's contract and the fact we spent a 2nd round draft pick on Dillon.

And with Love, well, we all know he isn't going to be riding the bench for very long, whether we want that to be the case or not.

I heard an interview this morning with Gutey and he mentioned how things are going to be a lot different in March 2021 compared to a normal season. Didn't really say it but it's going to be a buyers market. Teams are going to be dumping players to get their cap down to where it needs to be. It's not an ideal year to be a free agent. Some of them are going to make big money but the rest are going to have to take what they can get.

@NumberThree posted:

I like that they locked him up, even it might be too expensive of a contract. What I'm more concerned with is how this coincides with the 2022 salary cap hits of Rodgers ~$40mm, Clark ~$21mm, Z. Smith ~$21mm, and P. Smith ~$17mm.

Is there breakdown of Bakhtiari's cap hits yet? Regardless of the numbers, 2022 almost seems like the Packers will be doing the opposite of the Kirk Cousins disaster where their entire cap was sacrificed to keep the QB.

Absent a restructure, is there any way for Rodgers to stay after 2021?

Except that Rodgers is a future HOFer still playing at a very high level and Cousins is an above-average QB who is getting paid like a HOFer.

I was born in 1969 and remember the wilderness years of about the mid-70s to the early 90s when we were one of those teams looking for a QB (among other things).  We have a guy we can clearly win with (and if we don't keep him he's very likely to pull a Brady and win somewhere else) and we are going to sacrifice it 2-3 years earlier than we have to for a guy that threw 17 interceptions in his senior year at Utah State? We won't really know if Love can play until he actually plays some games. Even if he's the third coming, it's going to take a couple of years to get enough experience to really be comfortable.

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