Sorry, I have to look forward...how do you fix the defense?

1. Scheme change (likely means new DC).

I knew tonight was going to be tougher than I thought when I saw Atlanta's tight end line up all the way outside on a 3rd and 4 and Randall was 15+ yards away from him and 10 yards past the first down line. Yea, Ryan saw it, Randall missed the tackle, and it was an easy conversion.

2. Scrap draft and develope mentality and acquire proven talent in FA/release pickup. 

The draft and develope mentality, while underperforming players get destroyed in the hope they suddenly get it, does not work in the league.  Each year QBs are getting better and better.

The Packers either have to acquire defensive talent in FA/release pickup now or come to grips with the fact that every year's quest of a Super Bowl is going to hinge on whether Rodgers chucks a perfect game and puts up 35.  You can do that during a lot of the regular season, and maybe even in the first two rounds of the Playoffs. But the NFCC will expose the holes when a real offense comes to town, and if the offense falters even a little, then momentum is gone and the game is over before the half.

Notable FA/release pickup Packers who were difference makers: Reggie White, Julius Pepper, Santana Dotson, Charles Woodson.

Rodgers is a FA in 2020--will he leave? I doubt it. But everyone can see the frustrations seething out of him when things are down. Time is flying by with the 25 years of QB spoiling we've experienced. The front office needs to start taking advantage of it.

We have three Super Bowl appearances and two Lombardi's. 

SteveLuke posted:

Va. Packer posted:

Teams that play in domes are always going to be faster at home. Good teams anyway. The Holmgren Packers struggled in the Metrodome. But these Packers were slow at Lambeau. Randall and Rollins in particular. LaDarius Gunter is the Packers top cover corner.  He's an UDFA. 

The ILB's are slow, or in the case of Joe Thomas, a specialist who should be in on obvious pass situations and playing ST's. You can get good players drafting later. NE manages it. But draft and develop needs to be tweaked to make sure its players worth developing. 

 

NE won tonight with contributions from the following players on offense: Hogan/9 catches, 180 yards, 2 TDs (free agent), Amendola/Bennett 5 catches, 44 yards (FA & Trade), Blount 47 yards rushing & TD (free agent), Lewis 19 yards receiving/rushing.

On defense they got contributions from: Van Noy/Forced fumble (trade), Ninkovich (free agent) fumble recovery, Rowe/Interception (trade), Branch/Sheard 7 tackles combined (free agents). 

This is not a complete list.

BB is the anti-TT, he frequently acquires veteran players from other teams and trades his own guys.

Draft and develop, yeah right.

Bellicheck also does not subscribe to system football per se. He and his staff work very hard to treat each game uniquely and game plan for favorable match-ups. He get's smart unselfish players and has them prepared for each week. This is unique as most teams just hope their systems work. MM has the ability to do this on the offensive side but he needs a compliment on the defensive side. Someone young and full of energy - like a Mike Vrabel.

Sadly, I get to listen to all the stupid fans in New England who thinks this is all because of TB12. In 350+ yards of passing tonight, TB12 had little to no pressure as he sat back and threw to wide open receivers. Why, because of the team preparation, in which TB12 is integral but doesn't carry near the load that AR12 is asked to carry.

Ubetcha posted:

Let the gut job begin. Really a waste to have a future HOF quarterback and an offense that has absolutely no margin for error because of Dom's swiss cheese defense. He may be a wizard but I still think his defense is too complex for most. If MM's teams are going to continue to be based on the "next man up" principal, the defense should be something the "next man" can pick up pretty quickly. These guys look lost.

We do a poor job at next man up, otherwise injuries wouldn't be the excuse many are offering.

Not a huge Capers fan, and I hate to say this but a lot of the defensive issues are on TT.  I get that he felt fine with Shields (who knew he'd get hurt?) and Randall and Rollins, but he should have known better than to let Heyward walk.  Heyward is now one of the best corners in the league.

He hasn't had the best track record on high defensive draft picks either.  Perry started to play decently this year but it took him 5 years.  Datone has been a joke ever since he was drafted, I can't see them keeping him.  Randall has been talked about already here, and Clark, while a rookie, was not as impactful as one would hope for a 1st rounder.

Sure he nailed the HHCD pick but you gotta hit more often in the draft than that.  The man is a genius on offense but his defensive picks have been that of a middle-of-the-road GM.  This is especially true when he refuses to sign FA's and a good chunk of our defense at the end of the year were UDFA's.  Can't win championships that way.

Dude doesn't need to break the bank on FA's but a defensive "Cook-like" signing would be a welcome addition.  Face it, regardless who the DC is, without more depth not much is going to change.

I agree with the above, but what I don't get is a scheme that leaves receivers unchallenged. If the DB's were in the same zip code as the receivers they are to cover, I'd feel a little better about DC's schemes. Apparently this isn't easy as the steelers seem to run the same defensive schemes as DC.

1) Replace DC and all positions coaches (or a least have current position coaches reinterview with new DC).  

2) Resign Perry and Hyde.  

3) Let Shields (injuries), Peppers (age), and Jones (lack of productivity) go.  

4) Sign a free agent starting caliber CB (Bouye?).  

5) Pray that Randall, Rollins, Gunter, Martinez, Ryan, Fackrell, Clark, and Lowry make a huge leap this offseason.    

6) Pray for better luck with injuries.  

This defense doesn't get fixed this offseason with Caper and a few draft picks.  It'll take a new DC and dipping into free agency.  We'll see if that actually happens.  

vitaflo posted:

Not a huge Capers fan, and I hate to say this but a lot of the defensive issues are on TT.  I get that he felt fine with Shields (who knew he'd get hurt?) and Randall and Rollins, but he should have known better than to let Heyward walk.  Heyward is now one of the best corners in the league.

 

But Hayward wasn't playing at this level his last year with the Packers.  And that's why he got a pretty modest deal from San Diego (Tramon and House got much more the previous year in free agency).  That's what makes me question what Capers is asking our secondary to do.  

vitaflo posted:

 

Sure he nailed the HHCD pick but you gotta hit more often in the draft than that.  The man is a genius on offense but his defensive picks have been that of a middle-of-the-road GM.  This is especially true when he refuses to sign FA's and a good chunk of our defense at the end of the year were UDFA's.  Can't win championships that way.

Dude doesn't need to break the bank on FA's but a defensive "Cook-like" signing would be a welcome addition.  Face it, regardless who the DC is, without more depth not much is going to change.

He is a genius mainly because he drafted Aaron Rodgers and got great value on WRs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Although, to be fair, other than maybe Nelson our WRs are a bunch of guys that are decent NFL players but would look incredibly pedestrian playing with another QB. Davis and Janis are fast, but they never play. Every play seems to require Rodgers hitting a guy in an incredibly small window or scrambling around and playing schoolyard. 

TT has drafted 111 players since arriving in Green Bay. The JS ranked them last spring based on value relative to the round they were picked (without the 2016 picks) and it's pretty informative to look at the list. 

http://archive.jsonline.com/sp...323z1-376353341.html

The top 10 are in this order: Rodgers, CM3, Sitton, Nick Collins, Jennings, Nelson, Lang, Daniels, Crosby, Finley

11-20: Cobb, James Jones, Raji, Bakhtiari, Bishop, Starks, Linsley, Burnett, Lacy, Colledge

21-30: Flynn, Hayward, Bulaga, Hawk, Hyde, Dix, Randall, Brad Jones, Poppinga, Jolly

1 sure HOFer, 1 potential HOFer, and about a half dozen good, but not great, players. A lot of WRs on the list, but even Jennings and Nelson are not Julio Jones/Randy Moss/Dez Bryant type players. 

The disconcerting fact is that other than CM3, there is not what I'd call a single impact player on defense. Nick Collins, Daniels, and Raji - good but not great. 

In terms of draft and develop - you have to get contributions from 1st and 2nd year players. This year's class contributed almost nothing. Kenny Clark was solid, but the rest were almost non-existent (Spriggs, Martinez, Fackrell, Lowry, T. Davis, Kyle Murphy)

2015 class -  Randall, Rollins, Monty, Ryan, Hundley, Ripkowski, Hundley, Ringo (good depth, but Randall and Rollins were busts this year)

I think Cowherd's right about talent. This team is a good OL, adequate group of receivers (except Nelson who actually gets open), and a superstar QB. If you take Rodgers out of the equation this team is about 5-11. Imagine what Rodgers would do with a Julio Jones type receiver? Or even a real RB?

WE'll look back on this year and wonder how the hell Rodgers carried them this far. 

Simple solution, just a 9 step process.

1 - fire Capers

2 - move Thompson to his dream job... National scout

3 - promote Wolf to GM

4 - bring back Dorsey as Dir of Personnel

5 - sign UFA's: CB Trumaine Johnson or AJ Bouye, DT Dontari Poe, ILB Sean Spence, 

6 - [re]sign Cook, Hyde, Perry, Jones, Lacy

7 - bring back Greene for the LBs

8 - move Moss out, to anywhere

9 - get the best DC available

I stopped reading that list when I saw Bakh listed at #14.

Friggin joke of a list.

TT has other players he drafted that are still in the league playing for other teams.

Bakhtiari is a 4th round pick & a pro-bowl LT. It's ridiculous to question a 2-time executive of the year GM who basically supplies not only Green Bay with talent but the entire league.

Yes I agree I'd like him to dip into FA a little more, but draft & develop does work. It's a proven system.

We didn't have the "luxury" of having a bye week, then playing a QB-less team in the Texans (that's right they don't have a QB because the slug they trotted out there is no better than me or you) for a cakewalk into the AFC CG.

The Packers need a new DC & some Def. staff. PERIOD.

Boris posted:

...It's ridiculous to question a 2-time executive of the year GM who basically supplies not only Green Bay with talent but the entire league....

 

Something about this phrase bothers me.

Yes. I understand truth & facts are sometimes hard to swallow

Yes, it is hard to swallow when TT let's talent leave GB to do well with other teams. Glad we agree on that point.

The Packers have no impact players on defense. It's been said in this thread, other threads, and bears repeating. The guys previously considered impact players on the defense are either no longer on the team/playing (Collins, Woodson), or are simply not impact players anymore (Matthews). Some good players, ok, but we have seen this movie. Impact playmakers are needed. 

I do not think Dom Capers will be sent walking. McCarthy's MO is to try to fix it, not sh*t-can the program and start fresh. I really want a new program for the defense, but I just don't see it happening. 

Not having exploited AR is TT's fault, one SB appearance isn't enough, that is what it is all about, nothing to do with being proud of a team.

Ron Wolf admitted failing to provide enough weapons for Favre. TT has done a poor job on the defensive side especially. 

Nelson Cobb and Adams are all top players when healthy.  Adams is our next #1 and if you didn't see that this year you weren't watching.

Packers' defense again at fault in final loss

Good piece by Silverstein on what has been a repeating story since 2010. Agree with MC that there most likely won't be any changes to speak of.

RochNyFan posted:

...Why was Atlanta able to succeed with their blitzes and get hard shots on Rodgers...    

 

 

Sorry to get off topic, but since this triggered a thought:
I 'saw' our OL breaking down over the last 3-4 games. They were still able to sustain some incredible pass pro at times, but each succeeding week saw more pressure/hits on ARod and run blocking was sketchy at best.

To restore your original point:
I agree our blitzes suck. They have for years.
During the Woodson era, blitzes from the defensive backfield had mostly good results. But LB blitzes were stonewalled way more often than not.

Other than Linsley getting rag dolled by Hegeman, their shots were a result of mental errors by our o-line / RBs. The LBer who looked like he was going to "spy" on AR came delayed up the middle & Linsley never looked for him. Defenders were coming off the edge unblocked. 

Yes - this does point to an area of concern with MM, namely preparation. Quinn did appear to game plan for the Packers. MM appeared to game plan for a football game. Big difference.

If MM fires Capers then he will just move someone else in the system up to DC. Someone like Moss or even Ron Zook who was a DC with the Saints at one time. I dont get excited about those possibilities. 

Tom Oates: Green Bay Packers will continue to fall short until defense is upgraded

In the last five years, general manager Ted Thompson exercised all five of his first-round draft picks on defensive players. He also used 11 second-, third- and fourth-round picks on defensive players. The only players from that group who made a consistent impact against the Falcons were end Mike Daniels and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.

For all the criticism of Capers and talk of becoming more active in FA a good place to start is better drafting. TT's recent record isn't particularly good and it shows on the field.

Aaron Rodgers has 3 playoff losses where his defense allowed 44+points.

Tom Brady's defenses have NEVER allowed 44 points in his 267 starts

— Joe (@SportTaIkJoe) January 22, 2017

Upgrading the running game would help the defense a lot. There were injuries to be sure. But emphasis was an issue too. I like Dak Prescott a lot but Zeke Elliot and that OL hid a lot of flaws for them defensively and how pedestrian they are at WR outside of Dez Bryant. 

The difference in the running games yesterday was evident. It's a reason why we were playing the top 2 NFC seeds on the road and on surfaces they're better suited for 2 consecutive weeks.

michiganjoe posted:

Tom Oates: Green Bay Packers will continue to fall short until defense is upgraded

In the last five years, general manager Ted Thompson exercised all five of his first-round draft picks on defensive players. He also used 11 second-, third- and fourth-round picks on defensive players. The only players from that group who made a consistent impact against the Falcons were end Mike Daniels and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.

For all the criticism of Capers and talk of becoming more active in FA a good place to start is better drafting. TT's recent record isn't particularly good and it shows on the field.

Isn't particularly good is understating it. I hope (if he's still the GM) that he realizes he doesn't have to use the Packers top picks on a Pac-12 player. It's kind of fallen off since Rodgers and CMIII.

If I was an undrafted free agent defensive player, I would fight to sign with Green Bay.  Dom Capers is the great defensive equalizer, regardless of your talent, center of gravity will always fall to "below average."  Clearly if you are a high draft pick, this sucks for you.  

As the game unfolded yesterday, I began to experience deja vu. What was it; that feeling of something  was uncomfortably familiar?

Then it hit me! Like a ton o' brick.
Once again, in the crunchiest of crunch times, Dom Capers is getting anally raped on National TV. Yet again, another OC is exploiting his defense to the point it becomes comical.
And I'm not talking about vs Seattle in 2014, and I'll even exclude vs SF the year before. Heck, I'll even forgive the 51 point/531 yard performance vs the Cards way back in 2009, although it was a hint of what he was truly capable of.

I'm talking about the 37 point/420 yards vs the Giants in 2011, the year after our incredulous SB run. The following year came the epic 45 point/579 steaming pile of crap vs the 49ers.
The 2015 season was almost respectable vs the Cards again, but 26 points and 368 yards given up ain't exactly winning football. Not to mention championship football.
And just when you think he's got to have a handle on this thing by now, he's seen it all, he knows how to scheme, Dom finds a way to out-Dom Dom. In a way that only Dom can. 44 points/493 yards.

Anybody else see a pattern?

Then it's time for the "yeah, but...". Again.
Dom "Yeah, But" Capers. That's quite the accomplishment to hang one's hat on!

Capers should have been run off after the SF debacle that ended our 2012 season. For as long as I may live, I will NEVER understand how MM retained a OC that admitted he hadn't prepared for a game.

Had that happened, we would've had a new guy already 4 years into his program. With his assistant coaches. Think about that for a bit...

Boris posted:

Those of you wanting to get rid of Clay will never happen. He has a shoulder injury that will require surgery & I'm certain that's why he was largely ineffective. 

Most of the guys were hurt badly on defense. Trying to gut it out & get to the Super Bowl. I applaud them. 

It is time to make a change at DC. Change is a good thing. I thank Dom for his contributions to the Packers. Truly. I mean that sincerely. It's simply time to move in another direction & give the league some "new tape"

Nope Clay isn't going anywhere and I would bet good money that his shoulder was way worse than we knew about. 

I also applaud them for doing what they could with so many players out hurt.  Honestly I took a step back and thought that yes they sucked yesterday but this group of banged up defensive players came one game from the super bowl even with all of their deficiencies.

With that being said I do think it is time for a change at DC I also would thank Dom for helping us win a Super Bowl but also think the time is overdue.  They need to find a young and enthusiastic guy who preaches tough and physical defense. One thing I have always wanted from the Packers is a tough and physical defense and with few exceptions they never seem to find it. 

I knew tonight was going to be tougher than I thought when I saw Atlanta's tight end line up all the way outside on a 3rd and 4 and Randall was 15+ yards away from him and 10 yards past the first down line. Yea, Ryan saw it, Randall missed the tackle, and it was an easy conversion.

SAW that and was stunned. Contrast to how aggressive the Falcon DBs were on our receivers, right at the line for a bump. Not afraid of speed.

YATittle posted:

I knew tonight was going to be tougher than I thought when I saw Atlanta's tight end line up all the way outside on a 3rd and 4 and Randall was 15+ yards away from him and 10 yards past the first down line. Yea, Ryan saw it, Randall missed the tackle, and it was an easy conversion.

SAW that and was stunned. Contrast to how aggressive the Falcon DBs were on our receivers, right at the line for a bump. Not afraid of speed.

That was a key 3rd down too.  How can Randall play that far off his man?  Bad coaching or just a bad player?   

I don't think it had anything to do with speed, but rather not knowing what the defensive call was. This seemed to happen quite a bit, a number of defenders not appearing sure of their assignments, moving guys around (not to deceit, but rather because of own confusion) as the Falcons lined up. 

Capers needs to go, also more disruption up front from DL, edge rushers.  Ryan had all day

Looking at current players from the "fixing" things context:

I sincerely believe the Packers have a good group of young guys to build a defense around. In spite of what I may be told or what facts are presented, I think Clark and Lowry (especially) had good seasons and show a lot of promise. 
Ringo can go without any particular loss. Ditto for Price. They may remain PS candidates, or may develop, but if we need roster spots....
Guion and Daniels are who they are, but all 4 of them together is a good rotation, so DL may be the easiest position to deal with.

HHCD and Burnett are solid at S, but also would look at a more traditional FS. Their experience would make this a fairly easy transition, and one of them can assume a new role in the DB schemes.
I don't know where Brice fits in in all this, but I would keep him unless we find someone better.
I'm going to include Hyde in this group also, his versatility is too valuable not to keep.

Then we have a mess beginning at CB. A year ago, it looked like we had talented, young starters, a solid group of nickel/dime backs, and decent depth to develop.
Now,....who knows what we have?
I'm still willing to give Randall and Rollins the benefit of doubt, but I don't think you can approach the upcoming season with that line of thinking. So it's likely a draft pick/ FA acquisition will be needed at the minimum.
Goodson may or may not wind up contributing, but he's certainly not going to 'fix' anything.
Gunter, Hawkins, Waters, Delorean....are 'tweeners at best. I think the only reason these guys were playing at all was the injury situation; invaluable for experience but terrible for results. I'd like 'em all to stay and develop and become good players, but that's more unlikely than not.

So we're left with the hot mess at LB, and it's hard to say we're better off at the end of this year than we were the year before.
I'm ready for Peppers to go. There's just not enough potential reward to justify another contract.
Of course, keeping Clay seems a no-brainer, but....his results aren't worth his salary/cap hit. One or the other has to change.
I hope we keep Perry, if for no other reason than we have nobody else. There's room on the roster and within the cap for him.
Datone ain't D-one. Depth, at best, as far as I'm concerned.
Ditto for Elliott. Expected more from him this year, and he still has a 10 cent head. I have him in the same boat as Jones; depth or departure.
Fackrell and Martinez should still be here for another 3 years, so there is a core to build from to put it in the best way possible.
That essentially leaves Ryan and Thomas. Again, these guys may have some appeal for different situations or roles, but keeping or losing them is not fixing anything. 

It's pretty easy to see where the Packers may look in the upcoming draft....

Troy posted:

YATittle posted:

I knew tonight was going to be tougher than I thought when I saw Atlanta's tight end line up all the way outside on a 3rd and 4 and Randall was 15+ yards away from him and 10 yards past the first down line. Yea, Ryan saw it, Randall missed the tackle, and it was an easy conversion.

SAW that and was stunned. Contrast to how aggressive the Falcon DBs were on our receivers, right at the line for a bump. Not afraid of speed.

That was a key 3rd down too.  How can Randall play that far off his man?  Bad coaching or just a bad player?   

A little both in that situation to me but I will go coaching in that situation.  If you are an NFL CB there is no reason on gods green earth that you should give a TIGHT END that much cushion.  But by that point in the game I stopped being surprised at what the defense was doing. 

Has anyone thought maybe we need to replace Dom Capers, I haven't seen that suggested anywhere in this thread or on X4 for the last 5 years? I think going forward, when these threads pop up, it should just be assumed that Capers needs to be replaced. The thread title should be "Sorry, I have to look forward...how do you fix the defense (other than firing Capers)?" 

The core of the problem with the D is pass defense.  That breaks down into 2 things: pass rush and coverage.  Our DL is fine.  They are usually very good vs the run which is the first thing any 3-4 DL needs to be.  Pass rush from a stout DL is hard to find.  Your pass rush needs to come from your edge rushers and even ILB's and db's on blitzes.  It flashes once in a while against favorable matchups but our edge pass rush has been sorely lacking pretty much since 2010.  And everyone knows we need guys who can cover receivers.  At a minimum you need a #1CB that can match up with the other guys #1WR like Shields often did.  Taking their #1WR out makes it a lot easier for the rest of the secondary.

Needs: edge rushers (OLB and/or a hybrid DL than can play 4-3 DE).  While I think there is still a place for Ryan and Thomas, we need a more dynamic ILB than can hit, rush and cover.  And we need a true #1CB.  While a tall order, finding 3 really good players in those spots makes the rest of the roster better immediately.

What is Capers supposed to do with that cavalcade of crap he's been handed? People talk about how the Patriots do things on defense, but how are the Packers supposed to come close? BB finds veteran guys to come in and help, looks at cheap guys who were miscast on their previous teams (Van Noy, McClellin, etc.) but have the smarts and experience to pull off the scheming when called upon. When guys go down he's not always plugging in an UDFA. 

Capers is handed a couple of solid guys (Burnett & Shields this season), some good but inconsistent guys (Dix, Daniels, maybe Perry this year), Matthews is brittle. and a bunch of guys, most of them with little experience to properly pull off myriad schemes. We see when they just line up and play they aren't talented enough to win that way either, especially in this league. 

TT needs to find a couple of consistent players for the defense, a consistent pass rusher and a solid rotational pass rusher. There may be a couple of possibilities in the draft, Tim Williams or TJ Watt may be there when they pick for example, but TT may need to trade up a bit to get one, and he should if he has them rated highly and fill the back end with a free agent or two. They don't need to be big money superstars, just guys who can come in and play well. The needs are likely too many to be filled by just the draft anyway. 

michiganjoe posted:

Tom Oates: Green Bay Packers will continue to fall short until defense is upgraded

In the last five years, general manager Ted Thompson exercised all five of his first-round draft picks on defensive players. He also used 11 second-, third- and fourth-round picks on defensive players. The only players from that group who made a consistent impact against the Falcons were end Mike Daniels and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.

For all the criticism of Capers and talk of becoming more active in FA a good place to start is better drafting. TT's recent record isn't particularly good and it shows on the field.

Not particularly good sounds understated.

On defense, I would grade TT's recent record a D, at best.  This is abysmal.

Hershel, I agree with you and even though I bash the hell out of Capers you are correct he is given a raw deal with what he has to work with so I think it is a perfect storm on D. 
What I completely agree with you on is ILB for years now they have been missing a thumper in the middle to by physical and aggressive and make the opposing team pay.

I doubt Capers is going anywhere.  He had one hand tied behind his back in terms of personnel and what he could use from his playbook.  However, his blitz schemes are old and tired.  They rarely get home.

The deficiencies on D are all over the place, except safety.  Randall will get another chance next year to prove he is a starting caliber outside corner.  If not, I wonder if he gets considered for a move back to safety, his college position (his tackling leaves much be desired), in 2018.  His technique just seems awful.  I like Gunter, and maybe he takes a step next year, but his role seems better suited as a role player.  He's just too slow to play full-time.  We'll need FA and draft to address CB.

ILB is a mess.  Yes, they'll give Ryan and Martinez a chance to improve, but Ryan is just not dynamic.  He is steady, a guy you can win with, but needs a standout player next to him.  Thomas is a role-player - dime and coverage backer.  I think Clay should be that dynamic player.  Even before the injuries, CM3 was getting engulfed by OT's. 

OLBs will have to be Perry, Fackrell and new players, with CM3 playing spot duty there.  Maybe Datone is brought back for depth, a la Mike Neal.

DL is OK, but there's a need for a DT or DE with some pass rush ability.  Clark showed some flashes, but is still developing that part of his game.  Daniels is the only one who reliably can rush the passer.