Sorry, I have to look forward...how do you fix the defense?

Troy posted:

YATittle posted:

I knew tonight was going to be tougher than I thought when I saw Atlanta's tight end line up all the way outside on a 3rd and 4 and Randall was 15+ yards away from him and 10 yards past the first down line. Yea, Ryan saw it, Randall missed the tackle, and it was an easy conversion.

SAW that and was stunned. Contrast to how aggressive the Falcon DBs were on our receivers, right at the line for a bump. Not afraid of speed.

That was a key 3rd down too.  How can Randall play that far off his man?  Bad coaching or just a bad player?   

Or injured player?  

Want to see which players require surgery at the end of the year before we can call players bad or not.  The secondary was definitely hit the hardest by the injury bug this year.   

Think we can bring in some players from FA and say the door is open to be a starter. No one should be guaranteed a starting job from our current group of DBs at this point.

BTW, I'm rooting for new DC and staff.   It is time to change.   

YATittle posted:

I knew tonight was going to be tougher than I thought when I saw Atlanta's tight end line up all the way outside on a 3rd and 4 and Randall was 15+ yards away from him and 10 yards past the first down line. Yea, Ryan saw it, Randall missed the tackle, and it was an easy conversion.

SAW that and was stunned. Contrast to how aggressive the Falcon DBs were on our receivers, right at the line for a bump. Not afraid of speed.

I remember thinking that also. You could almost understand playing that far off if it was Julio Jones and you didn't want to be torched, but it was a TE. It was indicative of the whole year where Randall didn't seem to know what he was supposed to do (or able to do it).  

Matt Ryan played well, no doubt, but it wasn't like he was making throws like Rodgers. He looked like Tom Brady - hitting wide open guys for the most part. And on most plays it seemed like he had his pick of multiple guys running open.

For a team with two good safeties and a decent ability to stop the run with the front 7, it was shocking how poorly two second year high draft picks played most of the year. Maybe they were hurt, but in most games they didn't even compete. It's one thing for Julio Jones or even Dez Bryant to torch you in the playoffs, but the number of big receiving days they gave up even to pedestrian receivers was glaring.

Chicago: Deonte Thompson (8 catches, 110 yards), Cameron Meredith (9, 104),

Detroit: Marvin Jones (6, 205)

Minnesota: Adam Thielen (12, 202), Diggs (9, 182)

Washington: Garcon (6, 116), Crowder (3, 102)

Tennessee: Delanie Walker (9, 124)

Basically, good pocket passers lit them up. Guys that rely on rolling out and scrambling they handled well. They somehow figured out how to stop guys like Wilson and Kaepernik and got toasted by guys like Cousins and Ryan (guys with no mobility). The first game when Stafford was healthy he also lit them up but they won in GB. Maybe because they put a premium on setting an edge and containing the QB?

7 losses to the following QBs: Bradford, Cousins, Ryan, Ryan, Mariota, Luck, Prescott

12 wins: Whoever the Bears trotted out (2), Stafford (2 - 1 while injured), Bradford, Eli Manning (2), Wilson, Bortles, Osweiler, Wentz, Prescott

Luck and Ryan are good and borderline HOFers, but Eli was terrible this year. It's scary they got toasted so badly against this group of QBs.

Grave Digger posted:

 Capers needs to be replaced. 

See, that wasn't so hard to say.

Finally, the answer...

Fire TT. Fire Capers. Start over on defense. Sell team to someone that will build a winner.

— JS Comments (@JSComments) January 23, 2017

I'm starting to think it's time for TT to go.

I didn't realize his performance on defense is as bad as it is.  It's horrible.

I got a hunch that defensive woes are due to more than one issue. I watched wide open receivers last night for most of the game. No, I am not talking about the Packers/Falcons game. I am talking about Steelers/Patriots game. I mean sometimes NE was crazy open.

So what does that mean? Better talent in NE? Better O-Gameplan? Crappy Pittsburgh players? I don't know, but it wasn't just injuries and the personnel. NE players did not strike me as pro bowlers. NE had a superior plan and execution on offense regardless of talent. The only way to beat a offensive good game plan is by having a good to better defensive player who can adapt on the fly. Ours were not better players (at least across the board), ours played using an inferior gameplan and ours did or could not adapt.

We draft from the bottom, we have last choice on coach interviews due to playoff schedules, and we have TT.

I cannot think of a simple answer. But better players would sure help. Regardless.

Matt Ryan hadn't run for a TD in 5 years. 5 YEARS! But he casually strolls for 14 yards yesterday untouched. 

We can go back and forth all we want about how much talent this defense has or doesn't have. But the post season history of how assignment unsure this defense looks at some or most points each January can't be debated.

Need a new DC and an overhauled D staff. 

What cant happen is Dom stays. Ted drafts a few D players. Maybe adds a FA or two. And then the same movie as the last 6 years plays again next January. Dom simply has to go. 

When everyone has to sell out to cover receivers it's going to leave the run lanes open.  Dom taught me this.

DH13 posted:

Nelson Cobb and Adams are all top players when healthy.  Adams is our next #1 and if you didn't see that this year you weren't watching.

Adams is an Antonio Freeman type player. He's a solid #2 NFL WR who benefits from playing with a HOF QB. He's a good fit for this team, but he's not a Pro Bowl level guy. Don't forget that James Jones had similar stats last year and he was washed up 3 years ago.

Nelson is a top third #1 WR and is Greg Jennings minus the diva attitude - runs good routes, would be a big contributor anywhere. Cobb is a top third slot receiver. When healthy, WR is not a problem - especially when they have an NFL caliber TE. Not having to run RichRod out and pretend he's a starting TE made a huge difference (RichRod is fine as your #2 TE).

If for some reason Capers stays and they are still going to do the draft and develop, they have to simplify the schemes. Inexperienced guys struggle with complex coverage schemes and they end up thinking too much instead of just playing. Dom's schemes work great with a secondary where 3/4 of the guys are experienced and football savvy (Woodson, Tramon, and Nick Collins). They don't work with guys who were covering college WRs less than 24 months ago.

If they want to play the complicated schemes, then bring in some veteran mid-level FAs at the back end. Maybe they can't run with guys man-to-man, but at least they'll won't drop coverages all the time. Once Shields went down, they didn't have a CB that had played more than 1 year in the NFL.

ChilliJon posted:

. 

"We can go back and forth all we want about how much talent this defense has or doesn't have. But the post season history of how assignment unsure this defense looks at some or most points each January can't be debated."

 

This

The biggest positive going in to next year is that we've seen flashes of brilliance from young players and experience should only make them better. Dean Lowry, Blake Martinez, Jake Ryan, Joe Thomas, Dam Randall, Rollins, Gunter, Brice, Fackrell...not one player from that group has more than 2 years of experience and all of them have shown flashes of being able to contribute in big ways. They haven't been consistent all the time, but that's not unusual for young players (especially rookies). Randall, Rollins, Gunter, Ryan, and Thomas are all heading in to year 3, normally that's the year you really see what kind of player you actually have. If those guys can get past an sophomore slumping that may or may not have occurred then we will be sitting pretty. The guys heading in to year 2 may deal with some slumping or they may build on what they did this year. Either way the cupboard is not bare, but it does need some veteran savvy and leadership to aid in development. 

Janis showed flashes.

MichiganPacker posted:

If for some reason Capers stays and they are still going to do the draft and develop, they have to simplify the schemes. Inexperienced guys struggle with complex coverage schemes and they end up thinking too much instead of just playing. Dom's schemes work great with a secondary where 3/4 of the guys are experienced and football savvy (Woodson, Tramon, and Nick Collins). They don't work with guys who were covering college WRs less than 24 months ago.

If they want to play the complicated schemes, then bring in some veteran mid-level FAs at the back end. Maybe they can't run with guys man-to-man, but at least they'll won't drop coverages all the time. Once Shields went down, they didn't have a CB that had played more than 1 year in the NFL.

GD has alluded to this also & I concur. I've questioned many times if the scheme employed for certain opponents is too complex for the players we have.  

MichiganPacker posted:

DH13 posted:

Nelson Cobb and Adams are all top players when healthy.  Adams is our next #1 and if you didn't see that this year you weren't watching.

Adams is an Antonio Freeman type player. He's a solid #2 NFL WR who benefits from playing with a HOF QB. .

Adams has a higher ceiling than James Jones.  His ability to get separation off the line is elite as is his RAC.  He is still ascending and will eventually take over the #1 roll from Jordy as Jordy's age starts to win.  He was already showing some of that this season.

ChilliJon posted:

Matt Ryan hadn't run for a TD in 5 years. 5 YEARS! But he casually strolls for 14 yards yesterday untouched. 

 

When your ILB gets juked out of his jock strap by Matt Ryan, it's also a personnel issue. If Joe Thomas was playing hurt and that's why it was harder to change direction, that is a consideration. But the Packers got torched on defense basically because of 3 guys. Two of them are UDFAs: Joe Thomas and Gunther. There's a reason they were undrafted. The other is Randall who looked like a deer in the headlights all year.

Maybe if we watched other teams as critically as we watched GB, maybe it would be apparent that it's hard to play ILB in the NFL. However, we haven't had a difference maker play ILB other than CM3 in a long time. You can cover that up with good CBs, but our CBs were awful this year. Even good safeties can't cover up deficiencies everywhere.

Pikes Peak posted:

Janis showed flashes.

Was this in the parking lot after the game?

And a new DC. 

Over the past 8 years the names on defense have changed. A lot. I think we can all agree that during the past 8 years GB has had some all world talent on D. Some good talent. Some marginal talent. And some talent that didn't belong on a practice squad. With the exception of 2010 the results on defense in January has been incredibly consistent regardless of the players on the field. There is one commonality over those 8 years. Dom. Trgovac. Moss. Perry. Whitt. 

Is it really wise to assume things will be different next January if a few pieces are interchanged again? I think that's an incredibly irresponsible way of thinking. 

Will a new DC fix everything? Maybe. Maybe not. But GB has to start changing variables other than new players and FA's. I'm just tired of watching the same movie every year. 

Well said Chili. Let's hope MM considers it....

MichiganPacker posted:

If for some reason Capers stays and they are still going to do the draft and develop, they have to simplify the schemes. Inexperienced guys struggle with complex coverage schemes and they end up thinking too much instead of just playing. Dom's schemes work great with a secondary where 3/4 of the guys are experienced and football savvy (Woodson, Tramon, and Nick Collins). They don't work with guys who were covering college WRs less than 24 months ago.

If they want to play the complicated schemes, then bring in some veteran mid-level FAs at the back end. Maybe they can't run with guys man-to-man, but at least they'll won't drop coverages all the time. Once Shields went down, they didn't have a CB that had played more than 1 year in the NFL.

The guys also aren't talented enough to just line up and beat guys, so it's a catch-22. 

There were a number of plays yesterday where the D didn't get it done, obviously. There is one however that tells me it is time for Dom to go.

The score was 17-0 and ATL has moved to the Packers 5 yard line. It's 3rd down and ATL was out of TOs.

>>  M.Ryan pass short right to J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The defense on that play was Gunter 1-on-1 on Jones. There are maybe 2 or 3 CBs in the league who have a chance vs Julio Jones in that situation. The #domfense failed. Scheme was the problem. How do you not give Gunter help?

EVERYONE KNEW THE THROW WAS GOING TO JONES. How could you not?

MM has always been excessively deferential toward Capers and don't see a change at DC.

Tough game to watch back... Frustrated at the Packers CBs and ILBs. Serious evaluations of these positions to be made heading into offseason

— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) January 23, 2017

Its unlikely Mike makes a change at DC. And that's a shame. He needs to. 

GreenNgoldBlood posted:

First and foremost, pay AJ Bouye whatever he wants..That's a start. You tell Ted, if he doesn't spend some money in FA he's done...immediately.

 

Pretty sure this is a shot at TT from Arodg, and I don't blame him..

 

Jason Wilde ‏@jasonjwilde 2h2 hours ago

 

 

Aaron Rodgers' plea for offseason: "We’ve just got to make sure we’re going all-in every year to win. And I think we can take a big step

Stephon Gilmore from Buffalo is available, too. I think he'd be as good a fit as Bouye. I don't think TT will be our GM much longer. I feel Wolf will take over and will have a more favorable approach to free agency. If he indeed does, Bouye and/or Gilmore would be a good place to start. That's where we need the help, right now.

By the way, didn't 2011 suffer the losses of Collins and Bishop?  That's tough.

Seems to me the defensive performance can only be negatively impacted by 3 things - coaching, players, and injury.

Regarding injury, maybe there are strength and conditioning concerns.  Regardless, I know things can be done about coaching and players.

Now who ultimately owns that?  Who decides who coaches are and who decides who the players are?

TT/MM aren't going to flush Dom just for the sake of change.  I think they make a change at DC if they have someone in mind they truly believe would be an upgrade.  There isn't always the right talent available no matter how hard you look.  

phaedrus posted:

By the way, didn't 2011 suffer the losses of Collins and Bishop?  That's tough.

Seems to me the defensive performance can only be negatively impacted by 3 things - coaching, players, and injury.

Regarding injury, maybe there are strength and conditioning concerns.  Regardless, I know things can be done about coaching and players.

Now who ultimately owns that?  Who decides who coaches are and who decides who the players are?

Desmond tore his hammy apart in 2012 preseason game in SD. Nick went down early 2011 in Carolina. GB had three pro bowlers on that 11 defense. Could make a strong case Bishop could have been the fourth pro bowler on that defense. Finished 32nd in the NFL in total defense and **** the bed against NY in the divisional round. 

ChilliJon posted:

Ted drafts a few D players. Maybe adds a FA or two.

Hungry5 posted:

There were a number of plays yesterday where the D didn't get it done, obviously. There is one however that tells me it is time for Dom to go.

The score was 17-0 and ATL has moved to the Packers 5 yard line. It's 3rd down and ATL was out of TOs.

>>  M.Ryan pass short right to J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The defense on that play was Gunter 1-on-1 on Jones. There are maybe 2 or 3 CBs in the league who have a chance vs Julio Jones in that situation. The #domfense failed. Scheme was the problem. How do you not give Gunter help?

EVERYONE KNEW THE THROW WAS GOING TO JONES. How could you not?

4 playoff games where receivers went for >150 against a Dom Capers defense.

180 vs Jones (5th highest total in career)
176 vs Fitzgerald (highest total in his career)
165 vs Hicks (2nd highest total in his career)
151 vs Burress(4th highest total in his career)

This isn't new.  Capers consistently has done NOTHING to alter strategy or schemes when a the opponent is lighting him up.  

And Dom shouldn't be flushed just for the sake of change. I hate to even say it but he should be let go because of the lack of performance by the D the last 5-6 years.

Until recently, I have been a Dom supporter for the most part. But when you have players that are two-three years into your system that still have trouble lining up where they should be or knowing what their assignments are then that speaks to coaching more than anything.   It's one thing to get beaten by a talented offense but it's a whole other thing when your D gets beat because guys are constantly out of position.

Our FAs are Julius Peppers, TJ Lang, Nick Perry, Jared Cook, Datone Jones, Brett Goode,  Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael, Don Barclay, JC Tretter and Micah Hyde. Mike Pennel was cut, so he's not in the mix. Who do we resign? I think we resign Lang, Perry, Cook, Goode, Tretter and Hyde. If we can get Lacy on the cheap, we take him, too. Do we want Michael? I haven't seen enough of him to say. He was Seattle's best rusher before he was cut. Should we take him over Lacy? What about Barclay's spot? Do we resign him? If not, he is currently our only back up at both OG positions. Datone? Hard to say. He hasn't had much of an impact the past few years and his move to OLB was supposed to improve his pass rush. Has it? I don't think so. Julius Peppers? I don't think we can let a pass rusher take time off early in the season so he is more fresh late in the season, again. I also think we need to go to FA for at least one of our CBs and maybe an edge rusher.  I also believe we won't sign all the players I listed above leaving us with more holes to fill.

: I'm ready and amped to coach again. #ITISTIME! #LETsROCK!!!!

— Kevin Greene (@sackmaster91) January 9, 2017

So we just assume that a front office that has been one of the best at drafting and developing offensive talent is just completely incompetent at identifying players on the other side of the ball?

Hungry5 posted:

16 straight without a week off. Last 9 were in playoff mode.

That says a lot right there....

This article speaks to how much worse our young corners played this season compared to last. 

https://www.profootballfocus.c...sues-this-offseason/ 

fROM COMMENTS ON THAT ARTICLE: Would be interesting to see their performance data cross referenced with pass rush data from the two years...Dom pressures and asks a lot from his secondary, but rushers didn't seem to be getting home this year.

mrtundra posted:

Stephon Gilmore from Buffalo is available, too. I think he'd be as good a fit as Bouye. I don't think TT will be our GM much longer. I feel Wolf will take over and will have a more favorable approach to free agency. If he indeed does, Bouye and/or Gilmore would be a good place to start. That's where we need the help, right now.

Wolf has been the "Director of Pro Personel" so either he's been unable to sell TT on the value of some guys out there or he's failed to see the value of some of the guys out there, which is an interesting and important distinction to make. 

The #Packers gave up a 76.9 percent third-down conversion rate. According to @pfref, that's the worst in NFL playoff history.

— Packer Report (@PackerReport) January 23, 2017

CAPackFan95 posted:

Hungry5 posted:

There were a number of plays yesterday where the D didn't get it done, obviously. There is one however that tells me it is time for Dom to go.

The score was 17-0 and ATL has moved to the Packers 5 yard line. It's 3rd down and ATL was out of TOs.

>>  M.Ryan pass short right to J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The defense on that play was Gunter 1-on-1 on Jones. There are maybe 2 or 3 CBs in the league who have a chance vs Julio Jones in that situation. The #domfense failed. Scheme was the problem. How do you not give Gunter help?

EVERYONE KNEW THE THROW WAS GOING TO JONES. How could you not?

4 playoff games where receivers went for >150 against a Dom Capers defense.

180 vs Jones (5th highest total in career)
176 vs Fitzgerald (highest total in his career)
165 vs Hicks (2nd highest total in his career)
151 vs Burress(4th highest total in his career)

This isn't new.  Capers consistently has done NOTHING to alter strategy or schemes when a the opponent is lighting him up.  

 

While it wasn't >150. I think it's worth pointing out Michael Crabtree had his second highest yards total in his career against Dom in 2012 in the divisional round. 119 yards and 2 TDs. Statistically it's the best game he's ever played. 

ILB

I think the ILB group is fine.  Martinez, Ryan and Thomas were all decent.   No pro bowlers in that group, but they held their own.   We don't need to move Clay inside unless we are talking about 3rd down.  He pairs well with Thomas inside on 3rd down.   But you only do that if you have another edge rusher to replace him.  Right now, we don't.   We have Peppers, Clay, Frakell (sp?) and Elliot under contract.    We have to resign Perry, he was a beast this year, just needs to stay healthy.   Even with signing Perry, I think we still need another OLB to replace Peppers.   Not worth the coin.

- Ryan, Martinez, Thomas, Late Round Pick

- Perry, Clay, Frakell (sp?), Early round pick.

DLine

The DL looks good to me.   Clark came on strong at the end and Lowry looks like a serviceable backup.    Daniels, Guion, Clark and Lowry are a good start.    Maybe bring back Jones depending on the price tag.

Secondary 

The secondary is a disaster.   We have to hit FA market here to be competitive next year.    There is always the chance that Randall / Rollins pull a D. Adams and make a huge leap in year 3, but we shouldn't bank on that when we have SB aspirations.     Even if the FA is a solid @#2 type guy, it would be a huge improvement.     Hyde is a nice tool in that he can cover a lot of positions.  He isn't good at any, but assignment sure at all.   If he hits the lotto and some GM wants to pay  him starter money, you gotta let him walk.   He is a backup saftey who can play some CB in a pinch and nothing else.     I'm not in agreement that think we need a true FS.   You can't ball Hawk if your covering your CB's ass all day and have no pass rush.   Even if that's not their strength, first things first, get a pass rush and CB's who will compete.

- FA Corner, Randall, Rollins, Gunter, Early Round Pick

- Dix, Burnett, Hyde, Brice.