Round 1 Pick 26 (From Miami) QB Jordan Love Utah State

@Harry Manback posted:

The headline is ..."showing that he can be what the Packers need from him in 2022"

From the article:

"Jordan Love still makes mistakes that high-end quarterbacks can't make. He still hasn't shown the consistency necessary to be a full-time starter. "

This is where I'm at.  And unless AR gets injured, it's likely we won't see Love play with starters, so it will still be hard to judge if he can be The Man when AR's gone.  At some point soon, I would think, the "he just hasn't had the opportunities" excuse runs out.

I agree, & it's after he gets a sufficient opportunity.

I do not want this to happen but it would almost be best for the team if Rodgers missed 4-6 games so that Love got all the #1 reps in practice & played those games in order to give everyone a much better idea what Love can or cannot do.

He has to take advantage of the opportunities he does get, that's the life of a drafted QB.  You have to earn opportunities to play with the #1's.

Unfortunately for him, he got drafted behind a 4-time MVP, not some JAG who the team was looking to replace anyway.  For Love, it was just a weird situation all around - the Packers thought AR was near the end and planned for what they thought was a more immediate future by drafting Love.  That lit a fire under AR's ass and he won a couple of MVP's.  It's just not going to be easy to crack the starting lineup as long as AR decides to play, and plays well, which - who knows how long that will be.

Like you said, FinnLander, that likely won't play out unless AR has to miss significant time (knock on wood that he doesn't).  Judging by what we've seen with the opportunities he's been given, he's not even starting caliber which is not a good sign given he's a first round pick.  Eric Stokes, in just his first year, showed he belongs.  That's less time than Love has had, and Love still hasn't shown he belongs.  AJ Dillon was drafted the same year as Love and was behind Aaron Jones, who is no slouch, yet he's shown he belongs.  Others drafted in 2020 in the first round:  Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Justin Herbert, Tristan Wirfs, Ceedee Lamb, Justin Jefferson.  There are plenty of OK or busts in that first round round as well as there always are, but the point is - if you're going to prove you belong, it is possible to have shown it by now.

So the question becomes, how much time is he given?

He had week 17 last year to prep for the Lion game.   He went 10 for 17 with 1 TD and 2 picks.   Gave the Lions one of there THREE wins for the season.

@BrainDed posted:

He had week 17 last year to prep for the Lion game.   He went 10 for 17 with 1 TD and 2 picks.   Gave the Lions one of there THREE wins for the season.

Not to mention the hot garbage he was at KC.  I know he got thrown in there, but that's life for a #2 QB.  You should look at least somewhat prepared.  He looked like a deer in the headlights.

Jordan Love 2021 stats preseason:

2 games played, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, QB rating 89.1

Jordan Love 2022 stats preseason

3 games played, 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, QB rating 63.9

In my opinion, he should get next year's preseason to show what he's got.  Then he will have had a year under Tom Clements as well.  If he's still in generally the same spot, I think he's had enough opportunities and it's time to move on.  Can't wait forever.

@Harry Manback posted:

Jordan Love 2021 stats preseason:

2 games played, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, QB rating 89.1

Jordan Love 2022 stats preseason

3 games played, 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, QB rating 63.9

Didn’t I read that MLF said Love has improved and has mastered the O?

Much like I recall MM saying back in the Hundley or Kizer  era that he was happy with the QB room.

Coaches BS….watch the games.

@Harry Manback posted:

Jordan Love 2021 stats preseason:

2 games played, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, QB rating 89.1

Jordan Love 2022 stats preseason

3 games played, 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, QB rating 63.9

Well those are just great stats.  NOT.  🤬 🤬 🤬

@Harry Manback posted:

In my opinion, he should get next year's preseason to show what he's got.  Then he will have had a year under Tom Clements as well.  If he's still in generally the same spot, I think he's had enough opportunities and it's time to move on.  Can't wait forever.

It would cost absurd money to see those 3 games.   If he flops, you can’t trade him.  

Unless Rodgers hands em up, I think this will be his last season in GB and we get a 4th round comp pick for him.

@Pikes Peak posted:

Didn’t I read that MLF said Love has improved and has mastered the O?

Much like I recall MM saying back in the Hundley or Kizer  era that he was happy with the QB room.

Coaches BS….watch the games.

Or MM saying the same shit about Rodgers. Clueless SOB.

@BrainDed posted:

He had week 17 last year to prep for the Lion game.   He went 10 for 17 with 1 TD and 2 picks.   Gave the Lions one of there THREE wins for the season.

But, but he was so good against Dallas. Why can’t Love do the same, with , less training camp, a COVID camp and 1 year less of experience???

@BrainDed posted:

It would cost absurd money to see those 3 games.   If he flops, you can’t trade him.  

Unless Rodgers hands em up, I think this will be his last season in GB and we get a 4th round comp pick for him.

You very well could be right.  I guess we’ll see.  And if I was Love, I’d like to move on to some team I have a chance at cracking the starting lineup with.  I’m not sure he has much trade value at this point.  As far as his tape shows, he’s a dime a dozen.  He’s probably a QB3 on a lot of teams.  He’s only QB2 here because he knows the system and the team doesn’t want to give up on him yet because of the price they paid to get him. Other teams won’t give him 3 years to show he can be a competent starter.  IMO, of course.  I see him as a career journeyman at this point, but I’d give him the benefit of the doubt for one more season and preseason to make sure we’ve given him every reasonable opportunity if it can be worked out contract-wise, otherwise, buh bye.  I just don’t see the “it” factor with him that shows up almost immediately like you see with players who’ve had good careers.  Some compare his beginning to AR, but even with AR’s rough start, you could see things almost immediately with some wow plays that made you think he’s going to be OK.  He had the “it” factor.

@Goalline posted:

But, but he was so good against Dallas. Why can’t Love do the same, with , less training camp, a COVID camp and 1 year less of experience???

How many other players who faced the same circumstances, drafted in the same year, rose above all that to be competent starters though?  A lot, I listed just a few who turned out to be superstars.  If we hadn’t  paid what we did for him, I don’t think he’d be with the Packers anymore.  If he was a 7th round pick, for example.  

@Goalline posted:

Or MM saying the same shit about Rodgers. Clueless SOB.

Fact is, you can only judge Love’s play by what you see.  What we’ve seen is he isn’t even a competent starter yet.  He gets the benefit of the doubt and a little more time because he cost a first and 4th round pick.  The league is full of guys who have potential, but at some point you have to produce.

Please let the head coach and coaching staff, as well as the GM, know what you see.  Sounds like they clearly are NOT seeing things clearly. Certainly not as clearly as some of you see things.

@PackLandVA posted:

Please let the head coach and coaching staff, as well as the GM, know what you see.  Sounds like they clearly are NOT seeing things clearly. Certainly not as clearly as some of you see things.

So if they don’t exercise his option then you will be the first to say he isn’t that good.  Right?  

I’m not judging if he’s good or not. I’ve seen virtually no reps of him in the 2+ seasons he’s been in GB. I’m merely pointing out that “you can only judge Love by what you see” is pretty short-sighted. Sure, fans are entitled to their opinions. But how much have fans really seen on Love? From a fan perspective, some might think a lot. From a football personnel perspective, virtually nothing. And I’m not even a Love bandwagon guy. I didn’t care for the pick. I just don’t pretend to know his ceiling after his short career.

All I have to say about Love? Let young players develop. If he sucks when he gets his chance, fine. If he is the 3 rd HOF QB in a row, great. Time will tell.

@Goalline posted:

All I have to say about Love? Let young players develop. If he sucks when he gets his chance, fine. If he is the 3 rd HOF QB in a row, great. Time will tell.

Funny, PackLandVA.  I acknowledge what you, Goalline and others are saying about not having enough time, and I agree for what we paid for him, we should probably give him one more season and preseason if it works out contract-wise.  Maybe a year's tutelidge under Clements will make a difference.  If everything goes according to plan, and unless AR retires after this season, Love's not going to see the field in a real game with starters for another year.  So I don't know how he gets that experience you guys talk about and at some point in time (soon), if he doesn't show significant improvement, he needs to go in my opinion.  Complicating that even further is his contract situation next year.

Interested to know how you and PackLandVA see it shaking out.

They are booking rooms in Canton in 2040 for his induction.

@BrainDed posted:

So if they don’t exercise his option then you will be the first to say he isn’t that good.  Right?  

No, you will be first in line to say he isn't any good.  Just like you've been doing all along, with little real evidence.  You just want him to fail so badly, it's kind of pathetic.

@FinnLander posted:

No, you will be first in line to say he isn't any good.  Just like you've been doing all along, with little real evidence.  You just want him to fail so badly, it's kind of pathetic.

That's funny considering the actual statistical evidence supports the argument that he isn't that good while your "developing" argument and "covid year" excuse is grounded in opinion and theory only.   You can hypothesize and I'll just point to the stone cold facts / evidence (link below).   He had one good year, in 2018.

https://www.footballdb.com/pla...jordan-love-lovejo03

We all want the kid to succeed, he seems like a good guy and it benefits the Packers.   That doesn't mean I'm willing to ignore REAL EVIDENCE (see above) when forming an opinion on what the team should do.

So let's say the Packers don't exersize the 5th year option. Love is still on the team for 2023 right?  And if Rodgers gets hurt during the 2023 season and Love comes in and plays well they can still give him a contract for 2024 right?  Satori should know the answers to my questions.

Yes, he plays for GB in '23 unless they trade him.

Yes, if they don't exercise the 5th year, they can still (try to) sign him.

@ammo posted:

So let's say the Packers don't exersize the 5th year option. Love is still on the team for 2023 right?  And if Rodgers gets hurt during the 2023 season and Love comes in and plays well they can still give him a contract for 2024 right?  Satori should know the answers to my questions.

He would be a free agent so any team can sign him including the Packers. Only other option is franchise tag.

Here's the situation as I understand it from the sources listed, sprinkled in with some of my opinion on what might happen after this season.

2022

A lot of speculation on what to do with Love at the beginning of the year hinged on what he shows this year.  In preseason, he marginally improved in one game, but his QB rating was even lower than last year.  Last year he played in two regular season games, and didn't look like a starter.  Hopefully he doesn't have to play at all this year, so it remains to be seen if he'll get any opportunities this season.

2023

Even if the Packers win the Superb Owl this season, it's likely AR comes back at least for 2023 since he's due $60 million guaranteed.  If he retires, he leaves that behind.  Whether AR plays in 2024 is anyone's guess - he is a complicated fella.

From SI:  "The real decision point comes after Love’s third year, when the team will need to make a call on his fully guaranteed option for 2024. At that point, if the decision is not to pick up the option, and it’s likely to be set above $20 million, then it’d be time to put him on the block."

This decision has to be made before the 2023 season.  The fifth year option is looking like $20 million at a minimum.  This is where it gets interesting.  If the Packers don't exercise the 5th year option, which is likely at that price, Love will become a free agent for the 2024 season.  The Packers will probably try and get a decision from AR as to whether he wants to play the 2024 season (he's scheduled to get $49.3 million that is not guaranteed in 2024).  A lot is going to hinge on that decision.

2024

In the extreme, if AR doesn't commit to 2024 and Love ends up signing elsewhere, we could have neither QB going into 2024.  By this time, however, we'll have seen one more season/pre-season with Love and can better evaluate whether it's worth offering a free agent contract.

At the end of 2023, Love has a lot of control over what he wants to do.  The Packers might make an offer, but if AR's  going to stay for the 2024 season, Love may choose not to play for the Packers if another team offers him decent scratch with a chance to start.  Or, he may choose to accept the Packers' offer if he knows he's finally going to have a chance to start in 2025, and it's a decent offer. 

Here's the rub.  If AR decides not to play, or even plays in 2024, and the Packers decide Love's not worth keeping, the time to find a legitimate starter/AR replacement has shrunk quite a bit.  The Packers could hedge their bet by drafting a QB in the higher rounds in 2023.  It's not going to piss off AR, but it might piss off Love, which might make his decision to leave in 2024 that much easier for him.

If the Packers think Love has what it takes at the end of 2023, they can tell AR to go pound sand for 2024.  But that would be hard to do if AR's still playing at a high level.

However it plays out after this season, we'll have Love in GB for one more season at least in 2023.  Let's just go win a championship this year and see what happens.

Decent analysis.

Except Rodgers cap hit for 2024 if he leaves is very very high.

@ammo posted:

Except Rodgers cap hit for 2024 if he leaves is very very high.

Good point.  Adds to the complexity.

So all the angst about offering Love a 5th year by May next year is really nothing.

@ammo posted:

So all the angst about offering Love a 5th year by May next year is really nothing.

Correct, it doesn't change anything for next season.  It may affect whether the Packers look to draft a QB in the higher rounds, but we'll see.

@ammo posted:

So all the angst about offering Love a 5th year by May next year is really nothing.

If they are going to get anything higher than a comp pick, it has to happen next year.

I had the thought that the Love 'situation' is nothing unique to the Packers considering the QBs that were drafted primarily during the TOG era.
I think there are some similarities and likely more that are not.

Prior to ARod, the last QB the Packers drafted in the 1st round was Rich Campbell (1981).
The team did have a good run in the middle 1990's, drafting Brunell, Detmer (to a lesser extent), then Aaron Brooks in '99 and Hasselbeck in 2001. The biggest contrast to Love was these guys were middle round picks or lower, and I don't think they had to give up much, if anything, to acquire them.

Brunell was later traded for a 3rd round pick (66th overall) and a 5th round pick (170th) to Jacksonville.
Detmer left as a FA (signed with Philly). No idea if we got a comp pick for him.
Brooks was packaged with a TE named Lamont Hall, and sent to the Saints for a LB named KD Williams and their 3rd round pick.
Hasselbeck plus our 1st round pick (17th overall) was traded to Seattle for their 1st round pick (10th overall) and 3rd round pick (72nd).

These guys had value; I'm not sure that Love does.

Contrast the above with QBs drafted in the ARod era.
The immortal Ingle Martin in 2006.
Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn in 2008.
BJ Coleman in 2012.
Brett Hundley in 2015.
Jordan Love in 2020.

The only compensation we got from all those guys was from Hundley (a 6th round pick). My guess is that is roughly Love's trade value currently.

He's worth way more to the Packers than the value any other team would place on him, if the rumors are true that they were shopping him around or at least taking inquiries.  The only film on him thus far is unimpressive.

It is to you and me but we're not paid to do this.

@Timmy! posted:

I had the thought that the Love 'situation' is nothing unique to the Packers considering the QBs that were drafted primarily during the TOG era.
I think there are some similarities and likely more that are not.

Prior to ARod, the last QB the Packers drafted in the 1st round was Rich Campbell (1981).
The team did have a good run in the middle 1990's, drafting Brunell, Detmer (to a lesser extent), then Aaron Brooks in '99 and Hasselbeck in 2001. The biggest contrast to Love was these guys were middle round picks or lower, and I don't think they had to give up much, if anything, to acquire them.

Brunell was later traded for a 3rd round pick (66th overall) and a 5th round pick (170th) to Jacksonville.
Detmer left as a FA (signed with Philly). No idea if we got a comp pick for him.
Brooks was packaged with a TE named Lamont Hall, and sent to the Saints for a LB named KD Williams and their 3rd round pick.
Hasselbeck plus our 1st round pick (17th overall) was traded to Seattle for their 1st round pick (10th overall) and 3rd round pick (72nd).

These guys had value; I'm not sure that Love does.

He has value, but only to us, and only because of what we gave up for him.  If he were a 6th round pick, I doubt he'd still be on the team.

So you're saying Lafleur only sees improvement because of the draft choices they used to pick him.