Love officially takes over

@Timmy! posted:

One last thought, though certainly nothing new:
If our defense can keep us in games, Love will have a chance to win those, and that's how the Packers would get to 9-10 wins.
If he has to play catch-up, the 5-6 win predictions become more likely.

I will believe it when I see it from the Packers defense.  IF they can actually play up to their potential with all that talent I am with you they could carry the team until Love gets going.  But, we said the same thing before last season that the defense should carry the team until the offense gets in synch. 

@ilcuqui posted:

Goldie weeps

Timmy "likes"

@Shadow posted:

If we all saved up for a couple months to toss in a $20 could we collectively get Kuhn to talk with us? Who among us should we trust to hold the money until we've collected enough?

I got a guy in Mississippi.

I don't have lofty expectations for Love this year.  There are so many new and moving parts on offense that I expect the offense to be vanilla and non-cohesive until mid-year.  Add in a new kicker and points will be hard to come by.  I think many are completely discounting Rodgers' ability to read defenses/change to a play that has a better chance of success. 

If I told you that Jordan Love in 2023 completed 64% of his passes for 3600 yards, 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions that would seem like a reasonable stat line for him would it not?

Because that was Aaron Rodgers stat line in 2022.

— Andy Herman (@AndyHermanNFL) April 30, 2023

Instead of exercising his fifth-year option, the Packers agreed to a contract extension with QB Jordan Love that goes through the 2024 season, per source.

— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) May 2, 2023

Packers and Jordan Love have agreed on a one-year contract extension worth up to $22.5 million, including $13.5 million fully guaranteed, per source. pic.twitter.com/OfW45KOu9m

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 2, 2023

This also likely explains Darnell Savage's restructure as well. Frees up $ to make this happen.

Seems like a good move for both. We’ll definitely know by the middle of ‘24 if he’s worth the typical outrageous qb contract.

Still a good deal for both sides, but I don't think anything will be definite by mid season 24' unless he booms or busts out of the gate.  The biggest hurdle for any young QB is consistency.  And this particular QB also has a history of inconsistency.  Which is OK as long as he keeps improving.

I'll go on the record saying that he will have an amazing season, we win 10 games and make the playoffs. No Super Bowl this year, but lots of optimism.

@packerboi posted:

Packers and Jordan Love have agreed on a one-year contract extension worth up to $22.5 million, including $13.5 million fully guaranteed, per source. pic.twitter.com/OfW45KOu9m

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 2, 2023

Easier on next year's cap. Really clever move.

@packerboi posted:

@AndyHermanNFL

This was literally the exact scenario I discussed yesterday on the Love podcast. Was there a way to get him less guaranteed from the Packers side of things but the potential to make more on incentives from Love’s side of things? Perfect compromise.

Andy Herman is a smart cookie.

@YATittle posted:

I'll go on the record saying that he will have an amazing season, we win 10 games and make the playoffs. No Super Bowl this year, but lots of optimism.

I will go on record and say I don't fucking know what the record will be, but I am super excited about this year. A foundation for our future.

@YATittle posted:

I'll go on the record saying that he will have an amazing season, we win 10 games and make the playoffs. No Super Bowl this year, but lots of optimism.

I can see that happening honestly.  A lot of the talking heads act like the Packers roster is so lacking talent that they are a mid 90s Bengals team.  Do I think they are stacked like teams like KC and Philly no way but I do think there is talent to win this year.

I think the O will benefit from a QB who actually wants to run MLF's offense the way he wants it run.

A lot of people saying “Jordan Love should have bet on himself” when they aren’t the ones w/ an offer for $13.5 million in guaranteed $$$. A lot can happen in a year. Sometimes things don’t go your way, especially on a team with very young weapons. That’s a lot of $ to turn down.

— Andy Herman (@AndyHermanNFL) May 2, 2023

Makes a lot of sense for both parties involved.

@Boris posted:

Why haven't we heard what's up with Loves 5th year option?

Wasn't the deadline earlier today??

Edit: Teams must decide on to pick of a player's fifth-year option following the end of the player's third season but before May 3 of the following league year.

I totally forgot about the deadline so googled it to see what was going on.  Interesting move but I think this is a good call for an unproven QB going into his 4th year but first year starting.  Seems like it just shifts more money to this season - he was supposed to earn $2.3m in 2023 and $20.3m in 2024.  Now, he can earn up to $22.5m but likely gets more cash his year.  But in total dollars, not much change.

Re: Not sure I get "betting on himself".  The money doesn't really change and he's a free agent after 2024 either way.  Seems this has more to do with the cap than anything. But maybe I'm missing something.

EDIT: Ok, nevermind.  I see the issue with this deal.  Packers probably said they were unsure about the 5th year option b/c Love hasn't proven enough.  So the threat of not having 2024 guaranteed probably lead to a compromise - Love gets $13.5m guaranteed, Packers don't have to guaranteed $22m in 2024.  So yes, Love decided not to bet on himself and instead take $13m today.  Seems like a smart move by the Packers. 

@Goalline posted:

I will go on record and say I don't fucking know what the record will be, but I am super excited about this year. A foundation for our future.

2 of the 3 components to building a solid team should be here.

1.) This Special Teams should be amongst the best in the NFL. Good God, I can't even remember the last time I thought that. Obviously K is a question mark, but the Packers have arguably the best ST coach in football and a shitload of talent and players Richie Rich wanted on his unit. Reed may be a hell of an addition with punt returns and we know what Nixon can do. There are some good burners on ST's now including some rookies who can really fly as gunners. This should translate to good field position for Love and short fields to work with.

2.) This defense should be top 10. Hell, top 5 if you really think about all the 1st rounders and high paid All-Pro's on this unit. I completely get that Dingle Barry is a fly in this ointment but find me another defense in the NFL with 8 1st round picks at their disposal. If this defense fails, it ain't lack of talent.

That obviously leaves the offense. I really think MLF is not going to put a ton on Love's plate. I think this is a run centric team and MLF sets Love up with a lot of high percentage/dink n' dunk type throws to build his confidence. He is not going to ask Love to be All-World in his 1st year. Just be smart with the football, take what the defense gives you, make some plays with your feet and move the chains. Rinse, repeat.

@The Heckler posted:

A lot of the talking heads act like the Packers roster is so lacking talent that they are a mid 90s Bengals team.

Go back watch the Packers-vikings game from New Years Day to see how they manhandled a 13 win squad in every phase of the game. vikes were trying for number 1 seed and fell flat on their faces - with a lot of help from the Packers entire team, including all 3 phases scoring points that day.

When you move to a new, young QB - there will be growing pains, same as we saw when MLF became a first time HC. There's a learning curve and some of those lessons can be painful.

On the plus side, GB had a massive turnover in offensive coaches in 2022, that's not the case going into 2023. So the game planning and playcalling processes should be smoother for Love than they were last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96NjmasYHuQ

While losing AR's pre-snap gymnastics will certainly make things more difficult on offense, that loss will be at least partially made up for by JL running MLF's plays.  It will be more about MLF vs D than JL vs D.  There is so much pre-snap shenanigas in this type of offense, when run faithfully, that opposing D's spend more time and focus on reaction than on deception.  This is one of the basic tenets of the McVay/Shanahan offense.  It's one of the main reasons why you should be able to win with it even without an elite QB.

@Goalline posted:

Andy Herman is a smart cookie.

Shorter contract than I thought, but I put this out there Sunday.

It's my understanding that if Love got the 5th year option that was the cap hit in 2024, that year couldn't be part of a renegotiation. With the contract he signed there will probably be a long term extension in the works and the 2024 extension will be redone. If Love plays well he'll have a new contract by midseason. The extension just gives the Packers flexibility, Love a nice chunk of change, and allows time to work out a long term deal that's more cap friendly.

@CUPackFan posted:

EDIT: Ok, nevermind.  I see the issue with this deal.  Packers probably said they were unsure about the 5th year option b/c Love hasn't proven enough.  So the threat of not having 2024 guaranteed probably lead to a compromise - Love gets $13.5m guaranteed, Packers don't have to guaranteed $22m in 2024.  So yes, Love decided not to bet on himself and instead take $13m today.  Seems like a smart move by the Packers.

For a guy that hasn't hardly played Love has to grab that money. $13.5 is a ton of money for a 24 year old. I'm happy for him. He seems high character and his patience paid off.

@DH13 posted:

While losing AR's pre-snap gymnastics will certainly make things more difficult on offense

Excellent post up above

One thing Packers fans don't fully appreciate -  is how many times AR got GB out of a bad play, bad alignment, unblockable situation. The Packers were ranked # 2 in getting stuffed vs the run per Football Outsiders and a big part of that ranking is AR getting MLF out of some rough calls. Some good DCs out there.

With Love under center, you can bet defenses will focus on stuffing the run even more -  and force young Love to beat them with his arm.

I'm too am looking forward to seeing the offense run as designed and the cool thing is that even though Love is a first time starter, he's not a rookie.

Love knows the full playbook as well as MLF  - but the 2023 playbook will have to be scaled back to accommodate all the youth at WR / TE.

MLF talked about this at his presser, kinda like MM when he would say:
" Less volume, more creativity"

It seems many around here are aware of AR bailing out play calls but especially this last season, it's difficult to define which calls were MLF to begin with and which weren't.  I know to me this last year looked the least like an MLF offense.  Some of that was the Davante void.

Great deal for the Pack, great deal for J-Lo.....Two sides of the table negotiating and both happy?!?! what is this sorcery?!?

Super smart unlike the NY Giants 🤣

@Satori posted:

Excellent post up above

One thing Packers fans don't fully appreciate -  is how many times AR got GB out of a bad play, bad alignment, unblockable situation.

Of his own making. That was his offense and it was a static offense so he could change it on the fly. That was the very design of it. Now, we will see more shifting and changing; an offense that will require the defense to do more changing on the fly than the old one did.

Cuts both ways though - how many times did AR change the play and it didn't work?  Or he passed on the open check down to throw deep?  I don't think it's far fetched to think Rodgers operated the offense how he saw fit, with MLF acting more as "offering suggestions" to Rodgers.  We're never going to know but I'm optimistic that Love will actually stick with MLFs offense and we may actually see an offense that may be less exciting, but more efficient. 

Depends on how you define exciting.  I find moving the sticks and matriculating down the field vs. bombs away on 3rd and 2 very exciting.

@CUPackFan posted:

Cuts both ways though - how many times did AR change the play and it didn't work?  Or he passed on the open check down to throw deep?  I don't think it's far fetched to think Rodgers operated the offense how he saw fit, with MLF acting more as "offering suggestions" to Rodgers.  We're never going to know but I'm optimistic that Love will actually stick with MLFs offense and we may actually see an offense that may be less exciting, but more efficient.

Outside observers, particularly in 2022, felt that the Packers offense looked more and more like the McCarthy stale offense of 2017-2018 that became rather predictable. Yes, part of that was AR's thumb, new WR's, etc. But I think a decent portion of it was AR also deciding what plays to call and nixing MLF's original play call.

@Boris posted:

Brace yourself ..They're going to exercise the 5th year option.

Let's see if the guy can stay healthy and play well.

$20M for a starting QB isn't that bad in today's NFL.

For a starting QB...which Love hasn't proven he can hold down.  I'm with the wait and see crowd.  He's flashed promise, but has shown nothing to prove he can be a capable or even good starter.  More experience, time with the starters and coaching could make a difference, but the Packers are rebuilding, so there's no hurry to pay someone who's shown only flashes of promise that kind of jack.  I'm hopeful like the rest of you, but wait and see.

I am certainly more hopeful since the PHI game and the comments from "people in the know" outside the organization praising what they see in him.

The tide seemed to turn on this board in the same way because outside of Goalline (who eventually joined the majority), there was not much optimism for JL before those things happened.

I'm optimistic but would not at all be surprised if he just ends up being too inconsistent to count on for the next decade and they end up drafting someone else in 24 or 25.

@YATittle posted:

If I were a better man,

That's a really low bar.

@PackLandVA posted:

The Packers are not in a rebuild. The pieces are there.  Grant it, they lost a big piece last week, the most important piece.  But they have playmakers on both sides of the ball.  Plenty of teams are playoff worthy with average QB play.  And Love may be better than average.

The division and NFC are not powerhouses.

I respectfully disagree with the rebuilding part.  We have a new, unproven QB, two new tight ends who will hopefully improve a trash TE group, we still have a very raw WR group, we're still rebuilding the D line -  so maybe not a full-on rebuild, but close enough - at least IMHO - to call it a rebuild.  Depending on how the defense does this year and in what shape Gary returns, it could be an even fuller rebuild.  Hopefully with a new DC.  We are far from only needing a few pieces here and there.

@GratefulPack posted:

There should be a different environment/attitude around the team this year.  No more pressure to get the trophy while the window is open.  Probably a  better environment for young guys to learn.  A defense on paper that "theoretically" could keep them in games.  A running game that is bringing back all the pieces. On the down side, the division is getting tougher and nobody has any idea what Love is going to bring to the table.  No reason not to go into the season with a goal of at least 9-10 wins.

Good thing you're not the coach, LOL.

@Goalline posted:

Of his own making.

I think you underestimate Rodgers' impact in this area -  and you have plenty of company.

What you don't have is any data or outside opinions from professionals - and either of those would go a long way in making your point more credible.

In the post I made above, I pulled stats from Football Outsiders to bolster the point that AR saved our bacon many times. MLF has said as much himself on many occasions.

Let's add some outside illumination into the discussion

In 2019, when MLF first arrived, GB was # 1 in delay- of- game penalties.
They didn't have their play-calling operation at Max Q for months

In 2020 and 2021, after the offense was installed and the OC/HC were smooth in getting the plays in...the Packers ranked # 15 and # 18 in delay of game calls.

https://www.nflpenalties.com/p...w=team&year=2022

In 2022, with a new OC, new passing game coordinator, new OL coach -  GB was back to # 3 in the league in those penalties. So some of those delays are most certainly tied to the offensive staff responsible for getting the right personnel on the field and play call into AR's helmet.

Don't underestimate the value of a smooth operation in the heat of the battle.
Its a really big deal. That's why they let AR run the show in the 2 minute drill, its way more efficient.

The other part that fans forget is that all of the motions & shifts take time and delay the snap because you have to wait for them to come across the formation, then get into their stance, then be set for 1 full second.

Some fans are happy to pin ALL of the delays on AR, when he only bears some responsibility. Some.
GL - I really enjoy your contributions here - but I'm giving  more credibility when there is something to back it up.

You might be right, its all AR's fault.

But as a reader, you've given me very little to go on and some of the data + HC comments suggest these delays are for multiple reasons, not just the one.

Fair enough ?    

@Goalline posted:

No team with Rashan Gary, Jaire Alexander, David Bahktiari, Elgton Jenkins, Kenny Clark and Aaron Jones should be preparing for a season in which they miss the playoffs. That would be inexcusable!

Unless the QB sucks, then it would at least be believable.

@packerboi posted:

Outside observers, particularly in 2022, felt that the Packers offense looked more and more like the McCarthy stale offense of 2017-2018 that became rather predictable. Yes, part of that was AR's thumb, new WR's, etc. But I think a decent portion of it was AR also deciding what plays to call and nixing MLF's original play call.

It was stale, unimaginative and boring. And even then he was still whining that it was too complicated.