cuqui posted:Big Bad Bob looks at DL prospects.
There are 12 “draftable” players that can play nose tackle in Green Bay’s defense:
-Jarran Reed/Alabama
-Vernon Butler/Louisiana Tech
-Kenny Clark/UCLA
-Austin Johnson/Penn State
-Andrew Billings/Baylor
-Nile Lawrence-Stample/Florida State
-D.J. Reader/Clemson
-Vincent Valentine/Nebraska
-Kyle Peko/Oregon State
The last three probably could play nose tackle in Green Bay’s defense, but would likely be a much better fit at the 5-technique:
-A’Shawn Robinson/Alabama
-Chris Jones/Mississippi
-Hassan Ridgeway/Texas
Of those players, the only one pretty much a guarantee to be off the board when Green Bay picks is Jarran Reed.
Another five (Vernon Butler, Kenny Clark, Austin Johnson, A’Shawn Robinson, Chris Jones) are extremely good bets to be off the board by their second round pick. So if the Packers don’t take one of these player in round one, the list is cut in half by the time the #57 pick is up.
Four of the remaining six (Nile Lawrence-Stample, D.J. Reader, Vincent Valentine, Kyle Peko) all carry late round grades.
If the Packers pass on nose tackle in round one, the only two options available in round two through five could be Andrew Billings (who also could be off the board at #57) or Hassan Ridgeway (and it’s questionable how well, or even if, he could be a 3-4 nose tackle).
Thompson may view Letroy Guion and Mike Pennel as the 1-2 nose tackles for the 2016 roster and if so he may ignore most all the players on this list (still could look at many of these players at 5-techniques). But if Thompson looks at Guion as a DE, then it’s a pretty decent bet that he takes one of these players in round one to play nose tackle because once it gets past the middle of round two the nose tackle position will be hard to fill.
I’d still guess Kenny Clark. His pass-rush upside will be a difference maker in Thompson’s eyes. Throw out B.J. Raji’s snap percentage at year’s end, because he was hobbled and missed some time. But at the beginning of the year Raji was playing lights out…couldn’t have played any better than he was playing And when going back and looking at those early games, even playing as well as he was playing, Raji only appeared in 53% of the defensive snaps in the first four games. Bottom line is that Thompson can draft run-stuffers, but over the course of the season even an elite run-stuffer is probably going to be off the field for half of the snaps if he’s playing for Dom Capers. So if Thompson drafts a run-stuffing player with limited pass-rush potential, he’s probably not going to do it in the early rounds. Clark has some pass-rush ability, flashed it in the PAC-12 and is still very young with the potential to show significant improvement. I’d guess Chris Jones would be #2 on the list primarily because of his workout numbers (and anybody who has paid attention the last 10 years knows that Thompson puts a heavy emphasis on workouts when drafting defense) and Vernon Butler would be #3. Personally I’d take Butler ahead of these players but I think Thompson would prefer Clark and Jones…they just have a better upside as pass-rushers. I thought for sure that Clark would make it to #27, but maybe not with McGinn listing him at #2 on the DT rankings. The more and more I look at the board and the Packer's roster, the more and more it looks like Thompson will draft a defensive lineman in round one.
