He's never put up more than 4 sacks in a season otherwise, nor caused many turnovers other ways, nor been a big tackler, nor been particularly durable, nor particularly explosive. This year has been an aberration, quite likely a contract year surge that he didn't even get up for the first time around last season. He's more likely to regress to the mean of 3-5 sacks, maybe a forced fumbled and a few tackles than continue at this pace or better. That's what he's worth.
The argument for Perry is that he was a 4-3 DE at USC being coached by Moss and McCurley in Green Bay. Maybe things at OLB finally clicked for him. His passes defended went way up in 16. I don't think will overpay but I think they will try very hard to keep him in GB.
Maybe, but five years to hit your stride is pretty long for a LB. My guess is that some team will pay him at around this year's production rather than what's most likely his normal production.
And what would that number be that a team will pay him for this years production?
While not a perfect comparison, he may get paid like an Everson Griffen who is getting $8.5 mil average on a deal he signed a few years ago so that would be inflated for today's contract value.
There is currently over $ 1 billion in unspent cap available in the NFL
I think Nick gets eleventy million of that stuffed into his clubbed fist
If Aaron Rodgers hit free agency this year what contract is someone giving him? Is $40 million per out of the question? Is there another player in the NFL that could top what he'd be offered?
- 2016 cap was $155M
- 2016 highest paid player was Luck at $24.5M or ~16% of cap.
- 2017 Cap is projected ~$170M.
- 2017 16% of that cap is $27.2M
- 2017 $40M would be ~23% of your cap space.
- 2017 $30M would be ~18% of your cap space
23% of your cap space feel pretty high, but not ludicrous per se. The 30M and 18% feels pretty legit. Say you start at 30 and keep him at ~18-19% of your cap space over time and suddenly a 4 year, 130M feels pretty rational (relatively speaking), as the cap goes up each and every year. Honestly, a 4/150 or 5/175 type deal does not seem all that outlandish for him.
And, no one would command a bigger contract. I mean, QBs will always get crazy numbers, and maaaaaybeeeee someone throws more at Cam because he's only 27, but no.
Elway would do it. John Lynch might but he's a pretty sage GM.
Your stats prior to this year are based on seasons where Perry missed games due to injury. You are basically saying he will keep missing games due to injury.
He's a Packer. Of course he's going to miss games due to injury.
Perry played In as many games in 2015 (14) as he did this year, and played in 15 in 2014
People that don't want Perry but clamor for FA spending are the perfect illustration of what's wrong with the mindset. Perry is about as good a player as you can hope for in FA. Flawed but still about to be overpaid.
If all you saw were his stats and age but hadn't watched every snap of his career, you'd be drooling.
How can we not resign Perry? He played well this year. I think Peppers will be gone and if we don't resign Perry what will TT do, then? He'll have to draft 2 edge rushers/OLBs, or go to FA and get at least one veteran player there, unless he feels Fackrell is up to the task. There is talk that GB is looking at Chandler Jones, Cardinal's OLB in FA. Will TT do that and resign Perry?
IL_Pack_Fan posted:People that don't want Perry but clamor for FA spending are the perfect illustration of what's wrong with the mindset. Perry is about as good a player as you can hope for in FA. Flawed but still about to be overpaid.
If all you saw were his stats and age but hadn't watched every snap of his career, you'd be drooling.
The issue being Perry will be looking for front-line starter money but hasn't shown any consistency. That's a tough call to spend big money on. If he comes back at a reasonable price, so be it, but he put up one-year numbers where someone might take the plunge on him.
not worth big $, if he can get it, see you bud. if its reasonable, then fine, I am with Herschel, the #'s don't lie. he's hardly a dependable playmaker, so no I would not pay him like one.
FWIW, from Packersnotes.com:
Almost two years ago to the day, I was told that Bryan Bulaga and Randall Cobb would definitely re-sign with the Packers. My source was sure Thompson wanted to keep the two players, and more importantly, he was equally sure the two players wanted to be kept. Five weeks before the start of free agency, and that very same source has absolutely no idea what to expect when it comes to outside linebacker Nick Perry.
That’s because unlike Bulaga and Cobb, the 26-year-old former No.1 pick from USC has never shown any outwards signs of really wanting to stay. Sure he’d re-sign if the price is right, but would he take a little less to remain with the Packers? And if not, would Thompson be willing to pay top dollar to keep a player who, while extremely good in 2016, had been extremely ordinary and extremely injury prone the previous four seasons?
Thompson typically puts a price tag on a player and then refuses to go above that number in negotiations. We have no idea what number he’s put on Perry, and we also have no idea what number other teams will put on Perry. Based solely on his age and his play in 2016, he should probably be looking at $10 million per. But that’s unlikely due to his long injury history – which he couldn’t even escape during what turned out to be a career year. Perry missed 2 games in December after breaking fingers on his left hand.
It’s certainly conceivable that some team could offer Perry in the neighborhood of $9M per year. Would Thompson go that high? Considering the lack of talent at the position, could he afford not to go that high? I simply don’t know the answers to those questions. Fortunately, we won’t have to wait too much longer to find out.
He wants to be a 4-3 end. Perry just isn't a fit. Nice numbers this year but OLB needs a bit of an overhaul.
I guess it's all a matter of what's out there. That's a lot of draft picks otherwise.
It might indeed be telling that Perry really hasn't said much if anything it seems that he's hoping to stay a Packer. Contrast that to TJ Lang and Lacy who have said multiple times they hope to stay.
From NJ.Com (who are wondering whether the Jets will seek Perry):
Perry and the Giants' Jason Pierre-Paul are the best pass rushers in a weak free agent class. Perry, unlike Pierre-Paul, fits in a 3-4 scheme. An agent familiar with defensive contracts, but not tied to Perry, estimated a team could give the linebacker anywhere from $12 to $14 million a year.
I'd like to believe no one would actually give Perry $12 million per. Just takes one GM....
Crazy money for what Perry has done and his injury history.
ChilliJon posted:I'd like to believe no one would actually give Perry $12 million per. Just takes one GM....
San Francisco has the second-most projected salary-cap space in 2017 at $80.8 million, according to OverTheCap.com.
It just takes one.....
People are going to be very surprised by the contracts that get signed this summer
"An agent familiar with defensive contracts" = Perry's agent. "Some people Perry is worth 12 million, many people say that, I've heard that..." is another way to say that that's more in tune with this climate.
Except there's also no denying it's a weak FA class for pass rushers. And Perry hit the magic 10 or more for sacks. Wouldn't surprise me to see a 26 year old 10+ sack pass rusher get the early numbers being thrown out there.
Do I think he's worth 12-14mil with his injury history? No. But a lot of teams with decent cap room and like others said, all it takes is one.
ChilliJon posted:I'd like to believe no one would actually give Perry $12 million per. Just takes one GM....
John Lynch? Jerry Jones?
Boris posted:San Francisco has the second-most projected salary-cap space in 2017 at $80.8 million, according to OverTheCap.com.
It just takes one.....
Just for kicks, checked where the Pack falls and was surprised to see New England at the 5th most with $67M compared to the Pack at 19th most with $31M. That's good GM work.
I'd be shocked if the Packers brought back James Starks and Sam Shields. Cutting them both would bring another 12 million to 2017.
Packdog posted:Boris posted:San Francisco has the second-most projected salary-cap space in 2017 at $80.8 million, according to OverTheCap.com.
It just takes one.....
Just for kicks, checked where the Pack falls and was surprised to see New England at the 5th most with $67M compared to the Pack at 19th most with $31M. That's good GM work.
New England also has 9/22 starters up for new contracts. If they intend to re-sign guys like Marty Bennett, LeGarrett Blount, Alan Branch, etc. I would say that 67 mil will be eaten up quickly. Belichick will continue to make shrewd moves though preferring to take on low risk, high reward projects that he is so good at finding. Guys like Bennett and Blount will probably go cash in elsewhere, while older vets like Branch will probably take less to stay.
I'm not upset that TT doesn't pursue free agents, I think that can too often be a trap. I wish he followed Belichick's model though and pursued some low risk vet free agents who may have enough gas in the tank to give you 20 games. Peppers was not that kind of move, we paid Peppers a lot and got some production in return, but ultimately I don't think we got what we paid for with him. Christine Michael was a good move IMO, we got basically nothing from him, but we didn't pay anything for him. It amounted to nothing in the end, but there was the possibility that he could come in and stabilize the run game. Low risk, high reward.
Plenty of low risk FA moves, even trades, and to still have that kind of cap and roster flexibility is impressive. ...and another ****ing Super Bowl win 
Per spotrac Brady has a $1mm base in 2017. His cap is $14mm. Damn low for a top 5QB.
There has to be funny stuff going on there.
His base in 2018 goes up to $14mm, and his cap hit is $22mm. They could cut him after 2017 and take a $14mm dead cap hit. They front loaded the bonus and back loaded the base. It's a smart deal for both sides from a retirement / age related injury perspective.
Somewhere (since late Sunday) I saw a blurb that said he might play 3-5 more years.
Why not. He can't be stopped. GOAT, greatest coach who ever lived........
As long as he stays healthy. Father time is more injury prone and takes longer to come back when injured. He does seem on a mission to just obliterate any kind of old age decline as well as obliterating all career QB stats.
Many of us predict it every year, but this truly seems like the year where we see TT trade out of R1 to maximize value. Unless someone really good fell (usually that is for a good reason though), I don't see a player that I love being at 29 right now. This is kind of my breakdown right now of where I think guys should go:
Top 15:
- Myles Garrett/OLB/TAMU
- Malik Hooker/FS/Ohio St.
- Leonard Fournette/RB/LSU
- Jonathan Allen/DL/Alabama
- Dalvin Cook/RB/Florida St.
- Jamal Adams/SS/LSU
- Adoree Jackson/CB/Southern Cal.
- Derek Barnett/DE/Tennessee
- Mike Williams/WR/Clemson
- Cam Robinson/OT/Alabama
- Solomon Thomas/DL/Stanford
- Teez Tabor/CB/Florida
- Marlon Humphrey/CB/Alabama
- Marshaun Lattimore/CB/Ohio St.
- Quincy Wilson/CB/Florida
Top 28:
- Charles Harris/DE/Mizzou
- Ryan Ramcyck/OT/Wisconsin
- OJ Howard/TE/Alabama
- Christian McCaffrey/ATH/Stanford
- Caleb Brantley/DL/Florida
- Malik McDowell/DL/Michigan St.
- Deshone Kizer/QB/Notre Dame
- David Njoku/TE/Miami
- Jarrad Davis/ILB/Florida
- Jabrill Peppers/DB/Michigan
- Zach Cunningham/ILB/Vanderbilt
- John Ross/WR/Washington
- Reuben Foster/ILB/Alabama
Best Available for GB:
- Sidney Jones/CB/Washington - Talented in coverage, but can't handle strong WRs at the line (watch him against Juju Smith-Schuster)
- Tim Williams/OLB/Alabama - Elite pass rusher, can't stay out of trouble or off the weed though. Drug suspension waiting to happen!
Really good players but not good 1st round value:
- Alvin Kamara/RB/Tennessee
- TJ Watt/OLB/Wisconsin
- Gareon Conley/CB/Ohio St.
- Budda Baker/FS/Washington
- Tanoh Kpassagnon/DE/Villanova
- Cordrea Tankersley/CB/Clemson
- Curtis Samuel/ATH/Ohio St.
- Takkarist McKinley/OLB/UCLA
It's a weird year to be at 29. There's a lot of players I love, like Watt and Baker and Samuel, but they're not players I think are necessarily worth a R1 pick. That's just my opinion though, my ratings don't necessarily match many draft sites. I think guys like Sidney Jones are being overrated because of the success of their team. When you turn the microscope on him or Peppers individually, they don't like quite as impressive. Even guys like Reuben Foster or Tim Williams, they don't look nearly as amazing on a consistent basis, but they make a few splash plays a game and everyone thinks they're the next big thing.
Updated list on Packers prospect visit:
- Julie'n Davenport, OT, Bucknell (SR)
- Jonathan McLaughlin, OT, Virginia Tech (EW)
- Fabian Moreau, CB, UCLA (EW)
- Joseph Williams, RB, Utah (EW)
