I believe, of the players you listed, Guice, McGlinchy & Ridley can be selected later in round 1.
If Gutey wants one of them he can trade down, assuming some team wants to come up to "no man's land" @ #14
I am not sure that signing House gives them enough at CB to go BPA at 14. I still think they have to go BPA at a position of need but that is just me. And CB to me is slightly above pass rusher so I think they will go with Jackson or Ward. One thing that will be interesting is learning what the new GM's philosophy is going to be BPA or drafting for need.
With House resigned, it allows the team to seriously consider the BPA. That said, I prefer an edge rusher at #14 and a WR in the second round, someone like Chark. We have done well drafting a WR in the second round. Yet, I could see us drafting someone rated higher than 14 who falls there regardless of position. Except for a QB, if its a steal we take it. One never know what position of strength later becomes a position of need due to injuries.
BPA baby
If Ward is available at 14 he'd likely be the BPA regardless of position.
Can't be overstated enough times that one or two GM's will do something out of left field and a guy like Fitz, James, or Ward will be sitting there when GB goes on the clock.
Would have loved Smith at LB but it looks like his stock is rising as potentially the best all around LB in this draft.
The first round picks get all the attention. Yet I want to see who we pick in later rounds. Its much much harder to guess who they are before the draft. And a lot depends on what the other teams do as well. There is a lot of movement this year. My guess is we will get a steal or two and we will overdraft some as well. Its nice to have lots of swings at the bat this year because we sure cannot compete money-wise in FA. And that's ok. I just wonder what Gute's draft board looks like. Is it like TT's or does he represent a new beginning in draft philosophy?
This has been the longest off-season in memory.
It sure will be interesting to see what Gute's philosophy is going to be. Will it be a complete break from what TT used to do or will he be just like him?
If I had to bet on it I think he will be very aggressive how he approaches the draft. Free agency is a prime example to me. Sure he wasn't able to sign every one he was interested in but he at least was aggressive with actually trying free agency. That being said it would not surprise me to see him trade up to get a player he wants badly and maybe even trades a couple of times in the first few rounds.
Anyhow with that being said, since the first day this site started we have always argued about BPA vs. need when it comes to the draft. But there is one thing we have always agreed on is that when the Packers pick is in or when they are on the clock ESPN/NFLN will go to commercial.
BPA - all day all the time every time.
No questions asked. Improve your team at ANY position....yes even QB.
If Josh Allen falls to #14 & Gutey has a 1st round grade in him....how do you pass him up especially if he's the last player on the board with a first round grade?
The draft is all about knowing where your opponents have a player slotted.
Boris, I would agree with you if it came to Chubb, Barkley or maybe even Nelson. (Not that it would ever happen) But a QB? I am not too sure that we should take one. Now if we can turn around right away and trade with another team and get a good draft pick maybe even next year or a top tier player for that QB then I would agree.
My point is, it depends on how good that player is.
We gave up a little more than necessary to the Patriots to get Clay Matthews - Probably mostly due to the Packers fleecing the Pats a couple times in draft day trades.
The player available at that spot, matters.
This is the time of year that REAL draft experts earn their pay
If Josh Allen is available at 14 then Gute's phone in the war room probably melts down with incoming offers. That would be a great development.
Brainwashed Boris posted:
This is the time of year that REAL draft experts earn their pay
Are you suggesting that the plethora of draft guru tidbits and prognostications on this board aren't worthy?
And I think he was talking directly to me.
I would definitely not take that shiit sitting down sir.
Honestly, the draft is an inexact science. Just look back at previous drafts 3-5 years ago. First 2 rounds. See all the busts. It's pretty shocking.
Josh Allen will be gone before 14. I feel pretty confident about that.
It's not like my draft pic history is bulletproof.
It's not Mel Kiper Jr. "Why not Brady Quinn here???. When this whole thing unfolded I said JaMarcuss Russell was perfect for Oakland and Brady Quinn was perfect for the Detroit Lions" after Detroit selected Calvin Johnson back in 2007....
I love the draft.
Brainwashed Boris posted:
If Josh Allen falls into his lap #14 & Gutey has a 1st round grade in him....
YATittle posted:Josh Allen will be gone before 14. I feel pretty confident about that.
I don't disagree. Most likely he doesn't last past #12 with Buffalo.
I have a feeling we are going to see some drama with trades & such in the top 10.
Some team will eff it up & drop a good player to Green Bay at #14. That's what we're all hoping for. 
Brainwashed Boris posted:Honestly, the draft is an inexact science.
Statement, and supporting facts.
1/5 of your roster today if you had last pick of Round 1 and took best player available in last 12 drafts:
— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) April 12, 2018
Andrew Whitworth
Eric Weddle
Jordy Nelson
Pat McAfee
Rob Gronkowski
Richard Sherman
Russell Wilson
Tyrann Mathieu
Devonta Freeman
David Johnson
Tyreek Hill
Budda Baker
ChilliJon posted:It's not like my draft pic history is bulletproof.
It's not Mel Kiper Jr. "Why not Brady Quinn here???. When this whole thing unfolded I said JaMarcuss Russell was perfect for Oakland and Brady Quinn was perfect for the Detroit Lions" after Detroit selected Calvin Johnson back in 2007....
I love the draft.
Don't sweat it. I'm still waiting for Bobby Bushay to reach his potential.
BPA - all day all the time every time.
No questions asked. Improve your team at ANY position....yes even QB.
Unless through some weirdness the BPA happens to be a QB in all seven rounds. Even drafting CB in rounds 1-3 is pushing it. I suppose you're only talking BPA in Round 1?
Only Mike Ditka is dumb enough to use all his picks to draft one position.
I ran another sim and an interesting situation came up: Derwin James and Maurice Hurst were on the board. Davenport went to Washington, Ward, Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, etc. were all gone. My first idea was take James and be happy, but the algorithm was offering a great trade, first Dallas, then Buffalo with James off the board.
The algorithm is a bit trade heavy, but passing on a premier player like James was an interesting experiment.
Basically, would you rather have Derwin James or Leighton Vander Esch, Anthony Miller and Terrell Edmunds? That's pretty pie-in-the-sky but maybe more correctly, would you want anything less than Vander Esch, Miller/Chark/Gallup/Washington (whomever is lowest) and Edmunds for James?
For reference, here's the whole thing.
Round 1 Pick 22 (BUF): Vander Esch, Leighton, OLB/ILB, Boise State
Round 2 Pick 13: Miller, Anthony, WR, Memphis
Round 2 Pick 18 (DAL): Oliver, Isaiah, CB, Colorado
Round 3 Pick 11 (OAK): Edmunds, Terrell, SS, Virginia Tech
Round 3 Pick 12: Hurst, Hayden, TE, South Carolina
Round 3 Pick 20 (LAC): Yiadom, Isaac, CB, Boston College
Round 4 Pick 1: Burks, Oren, OLB, Vanderbilt
Round 4 Pick 10 (OAK): Fumagalli, Troy, TE, Wisconsin
Round 4 Pick 33: White, Mike, QB, Western Kentucky
Round 5 Pick 1: Norton, Kendrick, DT, Miami (FL)
Round 5 Pick 22 (OAK): Demby, Jamil, OG, Maine
Round 6 Pick 7 (CHI): Joseph, Michael, CB, Dubuque
Round 6 Pick 12: Smith, Ito, RB, Southern Miss
Round 6 Pick 29 (JAX): Jamerson, Natrell, FS, Wisconsin
Round 7 Pick 21: Ogundeko, Ebenezer, DE/OLB, Tennessee State
Forget Mike White, draft Jack Chicy if still available.
Brainwashed Boris posted:I believe, of the players you listed, Guice, McGlinchy & Ridley can be selected later in round 1.
If Gutey wants one of them he can trade down, assuming some team wants to come up to "no man's land" @ #14
Yes, all those players went off the board in Round 1, after #14. I also saw that if we wanted a CB, we had better grab one prior to the third round. Most of the good ones were gone between the Packers 2nd Round pick at 45 and their 3rd Round pick at 76.
"I ran another sim and an interesting situation came up: Derwin James and Maurice Hurst were on the board. Davenport went to Washington, Ward, Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, etc. were all gone."
I ran a mock that had Sam Darnold drop to the Packers at 14. BPA says we take him, so I did. James, Nelson, Ward, Edmunds, Chubb and Fitzpatrick were all gone before 14.
Brainwashed Boris posted:YATittle posted:Josh Allen will be gone before 14. I feel pretty confident about that.
I don't disagree. Most likely he doesn't last past #12 with Buffalo.
I have a feeling we are going to see some drama with trades & such in the top 10.
Some team will eff it up & drop a good player to Green Bay at #14. That's what we're all hoping for.
I agree on Allen no way the Bills let him get by them. My personal prediction is that we are all going to be saying "oh my god those guys are still on the board?" because as Boris said some team will screw up and let someone really good drop to us.
PackerPatrick posted:The first round picks get all the attention. Yet I want to see who we pick in later rounds. Its much much harder to guess who they are before the draft. And a lot depends on what the other teams do as well. There is a lot of movement this year. My guess is we will get a steal or two and we will overdraft some as well. Its nice to have lots of swings at the bat this year because we sure cannot compete money-wise in FA. And that's ok. I just wonder what Gute's draft board looks like. Is it like TT's or does he represent a new beginning in draft philosophy?
This has been the longest off-season in memory.
Agreed. It started October 22 around 3:30 Central or so after we saw Hundley play his first game.
If Denzel Ward somehow drops to about #10, Gutey has NO excuse to NOT trade up...the cost shouldn't be prohibitive(they have 12 picks), and Ward is a top 6-7 player in the draft.
GreenNgoldBlood posted:If Denzel Ward somehow drops to about #10, Gutey has NO excuse to NOT trade up...the cost shouldn't be prohibitive(they have 12 picks), and Ward is a top 6-7 player in the draft.
Unless he's turns out to be one of the many busts.
Every year we do the same shiit.... We get all lathered up over certain players and completely forget that half of them (Estimate) in R1 end up sucking, or at a minimum, never turn out to be nearly as good as advertised.
No matter how many picks you have, trading up is a dangerous game because that pick or picks you give up could end up being the next David Bakhtiari or Mike Daniels.
14-to-10 would be the third-rounder. Plus corner is very deep this year, IMO. I'd rather have Davenport, Anthony Miller and Isaac Yiadom than Ward and Uchenna Nwosu, for example.
Brainwashed Boris posted:BPA - all day all the time every time.
No questions asked. Improve your team at ANY position....yes even QB.
If Josh Allen falls to #14 & Gutey has a 1st round grade in him....how do you pass him up especially if he's the last player on the board with a first round grade?
The draft is all about knowing where your opponents have a player slotted.
I would hope that some team desperate for a QB there would give us a boat-load of picks for that selection...
If a QB worth a boatload of picks is there I'd rather think taking him would be the right move.
I think when you consider Rodgers' age (He'll be 35 this year), you would have to at least pause if a potential franchise QB is sitting there at 14.
If that were to occur and Gute decided to take a QB, I wouldn't lose my shiit over it. In a QB driven league, you either have a guy that can get it done or you don't. We've seen both ends of that spectrum and know very well how important it is.
I don't understand why nobody has the Browns taking Barkley at #1 as he is often called the best player in the draft. If Allen, Rosen and Darnold are all virtually equal, I take Barkley at #1 and ensure myself of getting him and take whatever QB is left at #4.
Giants need to take a QB but I think the only 1 they want is Darnold.
Jets are definitely taking at QB at #3
Again....the draft is all about knowing where your opponents will select a player.
It makes sense the Browns would take the QB at #1
Brainwashed Boris posted:Giants need to take a QB but I think the only 1 they want is Darnold.
Jets are definitely taking at QB at #3
Again....the draft is all about knowing where your opponents will select a player.
It makes sense the Browns would take the QB at #1
Yes, because Barkley will be there at 4
Some team could trade with the Giants and take Barkley.
If the Giants trade past Cleveland at 4, they're likely hosed on a top QB, if speculation thus far is any bit okay. Denver, sitting at 5, could use one and Buffalo, New England and maybe even Arizona could all be in play to move up.
We still have a bit of time before the draft and the mocks are over the place. But that is a good thing. I expect a quality player in the first. I also would not be surprised if some team is willing to trade to get up to our spot. Unlike last year, (unless we get a crazy offer) I expect we stick with the BPA at 14. After that I can see some wheeling and dealing.
Right now I feel totally unqualified to suggest who that pick should be. So I echo Boris and say its BPA and I sure hope its not a QB. Besides, my guess is that the remaining QB at 14 is not the BPA anyway
