Official 2018 Draft Thread

ChilliJon posted:

A lot of scouts/draft heads have GB taking a corner at 14 based on the belief Gute tipped his hand early with the offer on Fuller. I’ve seen Hughes mocked many times at 14 which is total insanity but driven by Gute chasing Fuller. 

Carlton Davis, Donte Jackson or Quenton Meeks in rounds 2 or 3 carries a lot more value than Jackson or Hughes at 14. Draft is way too deep at CB to reach for need at 14. Either draft the clear BPA at 14 or trade down and get something back for a value pick. 

Keep a few things in mind.  

First, the only opinions that matter are Gute and company.  Kiper, Mayock, unnamed "NFC scouts" and all the other dipshiits that rank these players online know just enough to be dangerous.  If they were worth a fukk they'd most likely be working for one of the 32 NFL teams.

Second, it's been said 100 billion times because it's true... the draft is a crapshoot.  That CB we don't think is worthy of the 14th pick could end up being in the HOF.  Collectively, everybody loses their mind after the combine numbers come out.  Reps, 40 yd dash, vertical, three cones drill... blah blah blah.  It's mostly BS.  Can the guy play football?  Does he have heart?  Is he tough?  Does he want it more than the other guy?  The combine doesn't measure that.  

With that said, I look at Josh Jackson's draft profile and see this:

- 27 passes defensed

- 8 interceptions

- Top notch instincts

- Played big in big games

- Anticipates routes

- Postive attitude and strong work ethic

Sounds like one helluva 14th overall pick to me.  

Brainwashed Boris posted:

30 prospects with 1$t round grades.

Anyone here agree or disagree with that??

Well, technically there should be 32.  I mean... amiright? 

Pakrz posted:

ChilliJon posted:

A lot of scouts/draft heads have GB taking a corner at 14 based on the belief Gute tipped his hand early with the offer on Fuller. I’ve seen Hughes mocked many times at 14 which is total insanity but driven by Gute chasing Fuller. 

Carlton Davis, Donte Jackson or Quenton Meeks in rounds 2 or 3 carries a lot more value than Jackson or Hughes at 14. Draft is way too deep at CB to reach for need at 14. Either draft the clear BPA at 14 or trade down and get something back for a value pick. 

Keep a few things in mind.  

First, the only opinions that matter are Gute and company.  Kiper, Mayock, unnamed "NFC scouts" and all the other dipshiits that rank these players online know just enough to be dangerous.  If they were worth a fukk they'd most likely be working for one of the 32 NFL teams.

Second, it's been said 100 billion times because it's true... the draft is a crapshoot.  That CB we don't think is worthy of the 14th pick could end up being in the HOF.  Collectively, everybody loses their mind after the combine numbers come out.  Reps, 40 yd dash, vertical, three cones drill... blah blah blah.  It's mostly BS.  Can the guy play football?  Does he have heart?  Is he tough?  Does he want it more than the other guy?  The combine doesn't measure that.  

With that said, I look at Josh Jackson's draft profile and see this:

- 27 passes defensed

- 8 interceptions

- Top notch instincts

- Played big in big games

- Anticipates routes

- Postive attitude and strong work ethic

Sounds like one helluva 14th overall pick to me.  

 

Not saying he’s not a great 1st round pick. I just think he’s a better 1st round pick around 20. 

Smith or Fitzpatrick are steals at 14. 

Green Bay needs one of two things in the first round of this draft. The best defensive player available or the second best offensive lineman available. 

Whoever it is I'll be disappointed.  

Either Lynch is a complete doofus or he's trolling the media.

Why not both?

Draft is a crapshoot is becoming as much a cliche as Kipers hair and Mayocks lithp.  But more all pros come out of first round than anywhere else so that's where your odds of success are greatest.  This roster cannot afford another RD1 bust or even average player.

What makes a player a good value at 20 but not at 14? That’s only 6 spots. Is there really that much of a difference? If he’s good he’s good, if he’s the best guy in your board, but you have hesitations about taking him at 14 then you probably shouldn’t take him at 20 either.

Always get more than what you pay for. Right?

Pakrz posted:

Brainwashed Boris posted:

30 prospects with 1$t round grades.

Anyone here agree or disagree with that??

Well, technically there should be 32.  I mean... amiright? 

No....sure there will be 32 "1st rounders" selected but perhaps not all of them have first round grades. Just look at the 2012 first round for proof.

Most drafts have a couple of OT's and WR's in the top half of the first round.  The only OT with a first round grade for me is McGlinchey, and i don't think any of the WR group is a clear first round talent.

My guess is that most of the GM's have a smaller number of first round grades than Lynch is giving out.

I remember a Ron Wolf interview where he alluded to only having just over 20 players with a first-round grade one year. I think after (sans QBs) Barkley, Fitzpatrick, James, Chubb, Smith, Edmunds, Nelson and maybe Ward there's a drop off in value. Maybe Gutekunst would add Davenport or some other player (or two) to the list but elite prospects are rare and the difference of a couple of picks can be big. 

Don't worry folks.  The first re-draft will be available right after OTAs. 

Herschel posted:

{snip} but elite prospects are rare and the difference of a couple of picks can be big. 

...and THAT is the key to knowing when to move up for a Clay Matthews or when to move down & still get a Jordy Nelson. 

Herschel posted:

I remember a Ron Wolf interview where he alluded to only having just over 20 players with a first-round grade one year. I think after (sans QBs) Barkley, Fitzpatrick, James, Chubb, Smith, Edmunds, Nelson and maybe Ward there's a drop off in value. Maybe Gutekunst would add Davenport or some other player (or two) to the list 

Might be 100% correct on those players - assuming Lynch thinks 4 QB's are pro-bowlers too along with the 8 you listed.

I disagree 4 QB's are pro-bowlers

I will say this about the draft.  First, GMs have more information than Mel, Mayock, or any other draft guru or the general public.  Second, value vs. need is a relative thing.  The more there is a need for a given team, the higher the value for a given player who meets that need.  So when we from our vantage point think about need and value, it may not at all be how any of the teams are looking at it.  And it may be possible that there is a sub set of teams out there that agree with our view of things, but not one of them is the Packers.  Third, there is the general way a given GM operates that influences which and what type of picks are made.  Those are the three reasons I think that drafts turn out the way they do and not the way we want them to or think they should at times. 

In spite of all that I still like the guess work we all do - that is what (us) fans do.  I enjoy it.  It is interesting to hear how others thinks of the draft. 

All the mocks are need based and what the mock posters perceive as a team's needs. If you do a mock based solely on BPA, you won't even cover some of the positions you do need. Being that there is a short list of Pass Rushers and a longer list of CBs and WRs, etc., I think we need to get a pass rusher if we don't move up the board from 14. Even then, we should get a pass rusher with our first pick.  I've been all over the place with this draft. Frustrating and fun at the same time.

So same as any other year?

Brainwashed Boris posted:

Herschel posted:

{snip} but elite prospects are rare and the difference of a couple of picks can be big. 

...and THAT is the key to knowing when to move up for a Clay Matthews or when to move down & still get a Jordy Nelson. 

Knowing what we know now, if we had taken Jordy at 30 instead of 36 would anyone complain about wishing we had gotten that extra 4th (Jeremy Thompson) because Jordy wasn't exactly the right value at 30? The only difference between those 6 spots is contract value. 

You're missing the point.....

What if they had traded down to 36 & drafted a player like Bakhtiari AND STILL got Jordy!?!?

Value - It's what the draft is all about

mrtundra posted:

All the mocks are need based and what the mock posters perceive as a team's needs. If you do a mock based solely on BPA, you won't even cover some of the positions you do need. Being that there is a short list of Pass Rushers and a longer list of CBs and WRs, etc., I think we need to get a pass rusher if we don't move up the board from 14. Even then, we should get a pass rusher with our first pick.  I've been all over the place with this draft. Frustrating and fun at the same time.

It depends on the level of risk you'll accept. Kylie Fitts, for example, has the skill set and measurables, but his injury history likely knocks him down a bit. Hercules Mata'afa was an even more extreme Jonathan Babineaux in that he was an undersized, freakishly athletic DT and basically will have to move back or out in the pros. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo has the knock of being a bit straight-line.

Brainwashed Boris posted:

You're missing the point.....

What if they had traded down to 36 & drafted a player like Bakhtiari AND STILL got Jordy!?!?

Value - It's what the draft is all about

Having the most at bats and waiting for the best pitches?

Yeah, like Brandon Belt

But even after all that, sometimes you still make an out - you don't have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. 

I haven't read all 30+ pages, I'm working on it, but I'm sure there will be another 30 pages in the next couple of days.  Does anyone think that Gute will try and make a splash with this draft (trade up, trade players), obviously it's not the TT way, but this would allow him to put "his mark" on the team, move on from the horrible ROTTT era?  

Brainwashed Boris posted:

You're missing the point.....

What if they had traded down to 36 & drafted a player like Bakhtiari AND STILL got Jordy!?!?

Value - It's what the draft is all about

Yes Jordy and a 4th was better than just Jordy, but Jordy still would have been a fine pick at 30. More picks ups your odds of finding quality players. Gute should get the guy he wants though, I don't see it as a mistake to stand pat and pick the guy he wants even if you think we could get him 6 spots later. If Josh Jackson will make the team better I don't see it as a negative to just pick him rather than trying to squeeze out a little more value and potentially miss out. 

Looking forward to hearing TT second guess Gute's draft to the media.  He can never keep his mouth shut.

PackerRuss posted:

I haven't read all 30+ pages, I'm working on it, but I'm sure there will be another 30 pages in the next couple of days.  Does anyone think that Gute will try and make a splash with this draft (trade up, trade players), obviously it's not the TT way, but this would allow him to put "his mark" on the team, move on from the horrible ROTTT era?  

He's already put his mark on the team. Jordy Nelson, Jimmy Graham, etc. 

Ted might have let Jordy walk but I don't think he would have, all things considered. Unless MM told him JN was finished, which I doubt. 

Nice listen on the drafting of 12 from Andrew Brandt (note the comment at the 2 minute mark):

https://www.podcastone.com/epi...Analytics-Conference

I don't see Gutes doing anything just for the sake of doing things differently or "making his mark".  That's ridiculous.  He's doing what believes is the right thing to do, damn the comparisons.  If that's incorrect, then we really have a problem at GM.

TT's first two draft picks were AR and Nick Collins. Best way for Gutekunst to make his mark on the team is with a similar strong start to his GM tenure. Deals signed by both Janis! and DickRod were very minimal and my guess is one or possibly both might have been resigned if TT was in charge. Roster had grown stale and was in need of some churning.

Draft week is the week a lot of guys wished they had tried a little harder. I'm talking to you Kyler Fackrell and Demitri Goodson. 

chickenboy posted:

Nice listen on the drafting of 12 from Andrew Brandt (note the comment at the 20 minute mark):

https://www.podcastone.com/epi...Analytics-Conference

FTFY - 20 minute mark - very interesting look into the Packer war room on that day. 

13 minutes they waited for a phone call & NOTHING!! Nobody wanted Aaron Rodgers?!?!??

Boris, thats insane that no one wanted Rodgers.  That goes back to your points that on draft day there are GM's that do stupid things.  

I really think it was a 'perfect storm' for the Pack:

1. Not a 'perceived' desperate need for a QB for teams between the Pack and the Niners.

2. Maybe a titch of 'Tedford' stigma.

3. An possibly some concerns with 12's personality as there has been some speculation that maybe he wasn't the most popular guy the first couple of years.

Regardless, happy the Pack 'stuck to their board.'

PackerRuss posted:

 move on from the horrible ROTTT era?  

Fer **** sakes. 

Henry posted:

PackerRuss posted:

 move on from the horrible ROTTT era?  

Fer **** sakes. 

That was sarcasm, haven't been on here in a while, trying to get my sea legs back.  

Can’t you picture Sherman trying to snap a pencil after Ted drafted Rodgers but ending up balling up his resume after failing to crush his empty can of Fanta. 

Brandt loves to relay the story of the draft party below the war room at Lambeau going full throated booooooo after the Rodgers pick was announced. 

Grave Digger posted:More picks ups your odds of finding quality players. Gute should get the guy he wants though, I don't see it as a mistake to stand pat and pick the guy he wants even if you think we could get him 6 spots later. If Josh Jackson will make the team better I don't see it as a negative to just pick him rather than trying to squeeze out a little more value and potentially miss out. 

Two things I'll add:

1. The law of diminishing returns. More picks in the repeatedly picked over lowers your chances to find quality. At some point you're trying to find a tuxedo at a thrift store, if not a dumpster.

2. In the case of Jackson, I don't think he's appreciably, if any, better than Alexander, Oliver or Davis. They're different styles, IMO, and if the Packers plan on press, I'd prefer Oliver to Jackson, for example, where in zone-primary I'd prefer Jackson.

Nothing gets you seaworthy like being Shanghai'd.  

Herschel posted:

Grave Digger posted:More picks ups your odds of finding quality players. Gute should get the guy he wants though, I don't see it as a mistake to stand pat and pick the guy he wants even if you think we could get him 6 spots later. If Josh Jackson will make the team better I don't see it as a negative to just pick him rather than trying to squeeze out a little more value and potentially miss out. 

Two things I'll add:

1. The law of diminishing returns. More picks in the repeatedly picked over lowers your chances to find quality. At some point you're trying to find a tuxedo at a thrift store, if not a dumpster.

2. In the case of Jackson, I don't think he's appreciably, if any, better than Alexander, Oliver or Davis. They're different styles, IMO, and if the Packers plan on press, I'd prefer Oliver to Jackson, for example, where in zone-primary I'd prefer Jackson.

What I'm more curious about is if Gert and Pettine will go the route of getting the best possible players (not BPA, still targeting certain positions) and making it work vs. the shopping list for a **** scheme aka Datone "one gap, flow down the line " Jones.  

John Lynch says.....

Skip past the Reuben Foster crap which is about 0:00-25:00 in 27:30 or so he said (4) 1st round grades on QB's - so if he's not lying......