I don't care what Jackson does at the combine. The kid can play.
BrainDed posted:I don't care what Jackson does at the combine. The kid can play.
This. Combine stars who can't produce on the field are legion.
But guys who were fast enough in college who show they aren't at the NFL level are also there.
Saquon Barkley
Derwin James
Minkah Fitzpatrick
Isaiah Oliver
Josh Jackson
Carlton Davis
Roquon Smith
Tremaine Edmunds
Vita Vea
Bradley Chubb
Calvin Ridley
Quenton Nelson
Assuming at least two QBS go top 10, at the very least one of these guys will be on the board at 14 (if they don't take a shine to someone else).
That said, if a QB the Bills love is sitting there, a couple of trade scenarios could develop. One is the Bills trade #20 and #53 for #14. The Bills would still have two #1s, still have a #2 and Green Bay could miss out on one of the premier guys but grab another good player early with five picks in the first three rounds. The best bet for sliding premier guy would be Smith, Vea or Nelson due to position but the premier D-Backs and probably a couple more edge guys (maybe Landry and Davenport) are likely gone in that scenario. Still, a Rashaan Evans, DJ Chark, Kemoko Turay, Mike Gesicki, Quenton Meeks-type combo in the first three rounds would be a lot of quality hole filling.
If Gutekunst does really want two #1s, #20 and #21 would likely cost Green Bay their 1, 2 and 4. Is it important enough to potentially miss a premier player AND have fewer first four-round picks? That seems a bit steep, depending on tiers, of course.
The other way would be if the first trade happens, then they move their 2 & 3 to get back in the Pittsburgh/Jacksonville area while still having a lower second (from Buffalo) and third (Compensatory) . I'm still not sure I like that , again it would depend on tiers.
Getting two #1s just feels fairly cost prohibitive to me with the number of holes to fill and middling cap space. Moving on from Jordy would cost them $2.3m in dead cap, if they moved from Bulaga it would cost them another $3.2m in dead cap. Not horrible but I'm never in favor of more than one O-line change in an offseason.
I'm also guessing Free Agency will be middling, especially as far as CB/Edge goes. Maybe some risk/reward signing like Jeremiah Attaochu and an older, stop-gap corner, or a Nigel Bradham/Trey Burton-type as a true starter.
Walter Football just put out a 2013 re-draft. Very interesting results.
Rusty posted:Walter Football just put out a 2013 re-draft. Very interesting results.
Wow--Micha Hyde and Baktiari going before we get a chance to draft the great Datone Jones.
I could also see the packers staying put and if bpa is the mantra, we could in fact, maybe draft a qb...gute may go the tt path and say he couldn't pass up the player.
I have always been on the fence with the BPA philosophy. I am not saying I am against it but I also think you can't stubbornly hold yourself to it. I think we all agree that the Packers more than anything desperately need defensive playmakers.
But when the defense was just almost completely void of playmaking ability you can still go BPA but get the player on defense.
If true BPA was an actual thing, position distribution would be wonky af. The Packers could end up with three QBs, four guards and two centers. That's why it's generally accepted there are tiers/clusters of players.later
Say you have an elite tier of Saquon Barkley, Calvin Ridley, Quenton Nelson, Roquon Smith, Tremaine Edmunds, Derwin James and Minkah Fitzpatrick. You project Edmunds as an Edge and your biggest needs are Edge and Corner.
That's seven guys. Maybe your next tier is Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Josh Jackson, Sony Michel, Isaiah Oliver.
That's seven more, so you're guaranteed to get one of those guys at 14. There may be slight preferences within tiers but those are the close groupings.
Maybe the next seven are Vita Vea, Harold Landry, Marcus Davenport, Bradley Chubb, Carlton Davis, Isaiah Wynn and Ronald Jones.
If there are two of the guys at #14 left, say Roquon Smith and Isaiah Oliver, "BPA" is Smith because he's from the higher tier, outweighing position need.
If it's Isaiah Oliver and Sony Michel, Oliver is a "need" pick because his position gives him preference over the similarly-graded Michel, but it's not like they're jumping the board.
If somehow Saquon Barkley is there and you take Marcus Davenport instead, that's "reaching for need".
Of course other factors may play in to it. If you feel Edge is ridiculously thin while corner is very deep, and a combination of Harold Landry and Tarvarus McFadden/Donte Jackson is demonstrably stronger than Josh Jackson and Hercules Mata'afa/Ogbonnia Okoronkwo does BCA rule BPA?
The tiers are mostly bigger also, maybe closer to "by round" as it progresses so it's easier to match need with tiers after the usually small "elite" players.
Herschel posted:If true BPA was an actual thing, position distribution would be wonky af. The Packers could end up with three QBs, four guards and two centers. That's why it's generally accepted there are tiers/clusters of players.later
This is exactly why god invented trades.
Great points, only things I would change;
Chubb from 3rd to 1st tier (replacing Smith in tier 1(moving Smith to 2))
Oliver would not be in any of top 3 tiers
Michel would not be in any of top 3 tiers (my picks to replace those two would be moving both Vea & Davenport up to tier 2)
Landry from 2 to 3.
Would probably move Da"Ron Payne & Rashaan Evans to tier 3
BPA has always been a myth under Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson. Need was always a component of the equation with both.
Four more picks for the new GM to use.
A bit disappointing. Many predicted we would get a 3rd for Lang's departure. The actual allotment has less trade value than the prediction. But gaining four picks is still a benefit.
A lot of underrated talent to be had in those mid rounds. If we get even 1 Mike Daniels or Josh Sitton from these 3 extra picks then we will be sitting pretty. Based on our history of 3rd rounders and our history of mid rounders, Iâm glad to have the picks we got!
Looking back, TT really has gotten no value out of the third round since Burnett in 2010. That's pretty pathetic.
But heâs picked some All Pros after round 3 since 2010 so maybe heâs just been good at digging up value.
If the Packers land Tremaine Edmunds he could be the Matthews heir even if Pettine sees Matthews as the "joker" he moves around the formation. They could take a flier on a Leon Jacobs or Garret Dooley later in the draft with 12 picks as a potential future backup to that spot while also taking another dedicated Edge guy somewhere in between. I could also easily see three corners drafted.
BrainDed posted:I don't care what Jackson does at the combine. The kid can play.
Iâm on this too... I cannot imagine a scenario where this kid isnât a star other than injury. Heâs Woody. Heâs going to be a star.
Kevin King is better than Josh Jackson. But House was so bad last year. He was really awful in every measurable.
I want Quenton Nelson. But thatâs not realistic. So Josh Jackson and Arden Key 1-2. Then coach them up Pettine.
I always prefer the large bodies early in the draft. So I can get on board with Q Nelson. It all starts in the trenches.
The personnel dept has had success finding OL talent in later rounds so I'd guess they don't bite on Nelson even if he slips to 14. No matter how crazy that sounds.
What's harder to find, even in RD1? A great OL, EDGE or CB? For GB it's been EDGE and CB so my money is there at 14.
Nelson is a generational talent at G. He wonât get past 7. I can get behind King, Randall, and Jackson in the secondary. Then Edge next. Then OL.
But if Q is there at 14 then itâs BPA and thatâs that.
Which, IMO, is none of the Edge guys outside of Edmunds, if Pettine likes him there.
Most are not projecting Edmunds as an Edge. Davenport is the wildcard. Could go top 15 or slide to end of First / top of second. After him, guys that may be there in rounds 3-4 that I like include: Turay from Rutgers, Armstrong from Kansas, Carter from Georgia, & Ejifor from WF (more of a 4-5 rounder).
ChilliJon posted:Kevin King is better than Josh Jackson. But House was so bad last year. He was really awful in every measurable.
I want Quenton Nelson. But thatâs not realistic. So Josh Jackson and Arden Key 1-2. Then coach them up Pettine.
Do you think GB might use some of those comp picks to move up to get Nelson? I think Nelson will go somewhere around 5-7.
Draft charts say it would take a lot more to get up into the top 10. Something silly like this year's 1,2 and 3?
nothing against rising above a disability, but I want my NFL LBs to have two functioning hands.
170 tackles, 18.5 sacks, 2 INT, 10 PD, and 4 FF in the last two years...doesn't seem like his disability has impacted him thus far. Watching their bowl game against Auburn he was all over the field making plays...he's a high first round pick if he has 2 hands.
And what if he had 3 hands?
Depends on where the hand is located...
I want Edmunds.
Grave Digger posted:170 tackles, 18.5 sacks, 2 INT, 10 PD, and 4 FF in the last two years...doesn't seem like his disability has impacted him thus far. Watching their bowl game against Auburn he was all over the field making plays...he's a high first round pick if he has 2 hands.
Besides the fact hand play is much more important at the pro level, he's also a hobbit as a linebacker. He's built like a defensive back. I absolutely love his story and he's been a great college-level guy but I'm not sure he translates to much higher than a special teams guy at the pro level.
what I find more fascinating than the actual pick-- this is where we get to see what Gute is like as a talent grabber. TT had the 'from parts unknown' M.O. - I wonder if Gute will be more like TT that way, or be more in line with the 'Names' that are projected for a certain spot. We could have had Foster, dropped big time, could have had Watt, projected to be a perfect fit...what did TT do, drop out to the 2nd round...what will happen this year
What I find fascinating is how folks obsess over a total crapshoot and then try and overanalyze them for a minimum of 5 years afterwards.
Hindsight is always 20-20.
Somehow folks are always smarter here (or everywhere), 2, 3, 5 years later (not to mention 2 months, 3, 6, 9, or 25 or 6 to four months later).
Or geenyus for calling who should have been picked. Those are the best. Especially the one year flameouts after the gnashing of teeth and burning of idols when a one year wonder was missed.
The coulda-woulda-shoulda.... oh my....
the "total crapshoot" myth gets thrown around here a lot. Not being a perfect science doesn't automatically make something a total crapshoot. Because Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round and Ryan Leaf in the 1st doesn't mean "crapshoot."
The 5th pick is more desirable than the 10th pick. First round picks have a higher chance of being productive than 6th round picks. Every pick is important because the shelf life in the NFL is short and you need to hit on new talent. New talent is exciting for fans and the draft is unpredictable, so for some folks it is fun. Some folks follow a kid in college and want to cheer for him in the pros. Message boards exist for everyone to be an expert and talk out of their ass.
I say this and I've predicted accurately 92% of the first round picks in order for the last 10 years (72% of all picks). The draft is fun.
Josh Allen can apparently throw the ball clear over the barn. Just can't hit the broad side of it. Especially when "moving his feet".
El-Ka-Bong posted:The 5th pick is more desirable than the 10th pick. First round picks have a higher chance of being productive than 6th round picks. Every pick is important because the shelf life in the NFL is short and you need to hit on new talent.
Obviously higher picks are more desirable, but only because the pool of talent to pick from is larger. It has been debated if the reason 1st rounds picks have a higher chance of being productive is because they are more talented, or because being a #1 they are given more opportunities/time to transition.
With the rookie cap, the margin of error with draft picks changed since you aren't straddled with a 1st round bust cap hit.
There are more First Round Draft picks in the NFL HOF than all other rounds + UDFAs combined....the best predictor of the future is the past, dominant college players have a better chance of being dominant pros..... it is really as simple as that.