Official 2021 Draft Thread

@Grave Digger posted:

Ted Thompson thought he was drafting contributors for a decade. No one drafts guys early who they believe won't contribute for 3 years, except when you're drafting a successor at QB and your QB has 3 years left on a contract. If you think a guy is Patrick Mahomes then fucking get him, whether he is or isn't is beside the point, it's not even a debate. Gute didn't pick him because he thinks he's good, he picked him because he thinks he's great. This guy has hedged his entire career on Jordan Love being the next great NFL QB, that's some heavy shit. His career as a GM is over, not just in GB but probably ever, if Love doesn't pan out. Nothing was scrapped, Gute believed (correctly) that he had already assembled a SB team.

Agree with that except for Gutey's career hinging on the Love pick. Some Packer fans may never forgive him but one move doesn't make or break an NFL GM.

Yeah hinges on may be extreme, but in all likelihood if Love DOESN'T pan out then Gute will forever be the guy who started pushing out the MVP QB pining for another ring in favor of some goober he fell in love with. Also if Love doesn't pan out and we've moved on from Rodgers then we're definitely not going back to a  SB and Gute will have to answer for the team trending down.

The Josh Allen discussion is a good one as it relates to Jordan Love.

Rocket arm, good size and athleticism, but played for a small school and wasn’t accurate and at times careless with the football.   I mean, Buffalo was criticized up and down for that pick and should have taken Josh Rosen instead.  Good thing there’s something called player development as Allen has turned into one of the better QBs in the league and Rosen?  Not so much.  

Gute has had some hits and misses for sure, but time and results will judge his legacy.   He’s made a lot more good personnel decisions than bad decisions as I can tell.   I thought TT was awesome until his health deteriorated and he started making bad decisions including passing on TJW.  He makes that pick, I’m guessing we don’t burn 15MM a year on Preston Smith and likely don’t take Gary 12th overall.   Could have invested in DL or WR instead.  But they are where they are.  

@Grave Digger posted:

Yeah hinges on may be extreme, but in all likelihood if Love DOESN'T pan out then Gute will forever be the guy who started pushing out the MVP QB pining for another ring in favor of some goober he fell in love with. Also if Love doesn't pan out and we've moved on from Rodgers then we're definitely not going back to a  SB and Gute will have to answer for the team trending down.

It doesn't hinge on it if he's halfway decent. It does if he completely flames out.

If Love turns out to be a Kirk Cousins/Ryan Tannehill type Gutey is probably OK in terms of job security. A lot of us (including me) will not be thrilled, but that type of guy will give them a chance to be an effective team on offense until the end of this decade. 

If Love turns out to be Jameis Winston, then it may hinge on it.

I think the difference between TT/Rodgers and Gutey/Love is that TT stayed true to his draft board and took the BPA (by far according to their draft board). TT was not going to give up other picks to move up. Gutey clearly identified Love as someone he wanted and gave up a pretty decent pick (4th round) to move up 4 slots to get him.

I look at it this way. The Packers for years have been hesitant to trade draft picks for veteran help because they value those mid-round picks very highly. They are potentially good talent for cheap contracts that allow you to use salary cap space elsewhere (Aaron Jones is one example). The front office wouldn't give up a 4th round pick to get M Lynch in 2011 and didn't give up a 3rd this year for Will Fuller (dodged a bullet with the PEDs). But they were willing to give up such a pick to  move up 4 spots to get Love.

If Love falls to #30 and they take him there because he's the BPA on their draft board, I can live with that. To trade up like they did, they clearly thought he was going to be a difference-maker.

Gutey traded up 9 spots to get Jaire Alexander and gave up a third-rounder to do it. That's one of the best draft-day trades in Packers history. Maybe he's just as right about Love and we'll all have Starr-Favre-Rodgers-Love pictures up in our studies in 10 years.

Gutey also traded 4th and 5th round picks to move up to the third round of the same draft to get Oren Burks. If Love is more like that, we may end up hiring another GM in about 5 years.

At the very least, Gutey wasn't afraid to make an aggressive move to do this. I wish he was more aggressive in trying to find short-term help for the team each year as well (like he was in 2019 with Z. Smith, P. Smith, and Amos).

An argument could be made that the Love pick was for the future and now.  In '05 the QB room was Favre and a highly regarded but unproven rookie in Rodgers. If not for COVID no one knows if the Packers would've kept Boyle or just gone with Rodgers and Love for '20. I won't be one bit surprised if the QBs next year are just Rodgers and Love.

Why would Love take a new deal before his rookie deal is expired? Team commitment to him as the future. If he plays out the rookie deal there is no guarantee that he is the starter wherever he goes. His shot at starting is in GB after Rodgers, or only if he is traded to someone desperate and thinks he can be the answer. That's a significant risk if they have only seen him in PS games.

@H5 posted:

An argument could be made that the Love pick was for the future and now.  In '05 the QB room was Favre and a highly regarded but unproven rookie in Rodgers. If not for COVID no one knows if the Packers would've kept Boyle or just gone with Rodgers and Love for '20. I won't be one bit surprised if the QBs next year are just Rodgers and Love.

If Love is not better than Boyle by the end of next year's training camp it is then time to start worrying

@Henry posted:

How was he right if they didn't win the NFCC to even make it to the Super Bowl?

Pretty sure that's the entire point.

If that's the standard then every GM since Favre through Rodgers has been 100% correct all the time.

No, that’s nonsense.

He was right because they had the best record in the NFC are were more or less two bad plays from going to the Super Bowl. It wasn’t a bad roster that prevented the Packers from advancing- it was mistakes made in the game.

My contention is that the Packers let one get away 3 weeks ago... they weren’t out-classed and they certainly had their shots. Compare it to, say 4 years ago when that team had no shot, or last year when they were out-classed. I don’t see those teams in the same light.

We played at home , won the turnover battle,our QB outplayed theirs and still didn't win. It was more than just two plays. Now Bak would have made some difference, but they dominated us on both lines of scrimmage.

2 plays, 1 in the first half and 1 at the start of the 2nd.  No team can come back from that.

Plenty of time, plenty.

@Music City posted:

No, that’s nonsense.

He was right because they had the best record in the NFC are were more or less two bad plays from going to the Super Bowl. It wasn’t a bad roster that prevented the Packers from advancing- it was mistakes made in the game.

My contention is that the Packers let one get away 3 weeks ago... they weren’t out-classed and they certainly had their shots. Compare it to, say 4 years ago when that team had no shot, or last year when they were out-classed. I don’t see those teams in the same light.

My contention is your contention has been a running theme amongst fans and the Packers organization for several years.  It’s always “just one or two” plays.  

At some point it has to come down to the whole team, coaching staff and FO organization as to why there is such a standard of complacency.

The goal is the Super Bowl.  There isn’t a single player talking about how great being 13-3 was vs. winning a Super Bowl.

I’ll also say this.  The reason why some fans, like myself, are losing patience is the many realities brought home by final years of TT and McVince.  Rodgers magnitude of importance to this team was shown to be hundredfold more than previously thought.  

We knock Pettine but he really did do a relatively decent job.  I’m not disputing the play calling gaffes or other failings but considering the absolute turd festival in the middle of that defense Pettine deserved some praise.

That’s all Gump had to do, just use 1 pick and maybe another mid tier signing.  Even after signing Kirksey, there was all of one known quantity at ILB and that was Kirksey.  That’s not simply under valuing the position that’s just dereliction of duty.  We got excited that guys like Martin and Barnes may actually produce something but just like the clown festival behind Adams at WR, you get what you pay for.

There’s no narrative of “going all in”.  It’s a very realistic observation of pissing away another year of an off the charts HOF talent because Gunt wanted to make his mark.  Hey Gorp, how would your resume look with a Super Bowl trophy?

All I know is my favorite team having a legit chance to go the Super Bowl every year is better than the 70s and 80s many of us went through. Of course two legends at QB have helped that and management for both of those QBs let the team and those legends down. Wolf never gave Favre great Weapons and Thompson became hell bent on not signing any prime free agents that would have helped. But I am not sure I want to be the Miami Marlins of the NFL. Win a title then suck for ten years while they tear it down and start all over. Winning during the season is fun. It sucks the final game when they go home and dont get to go to the Super Bowl. But up to that point, it is great. Beats the helll out of feeling that way 12 games a year like we did during the dark years.

@H5 posted:

or only if he is traded to someone desperate and thinks he can be the answer.

You do realize Chicago plays in the NFL.

I think the NFL should give Chicago an extra pick in the first round every year just for QB.  Goodell would present the pick in a clown suit and the jersey would read Mr. Irrelevant.

The pick gets a pie in the face, everyone laughs and the draft continues.

@Floridarob posted:

All I know is my favorite team having a legit chance to go the Super Bowl every year is better than the 70s and 80s many of us went through. Of course two legends at QB have helped that and management for both of those QBs let the team and those legends down. Wolf never gave Favre great Weapons and Thompson became hell bent on not signing any prime free agents that would have helped. But I am not sure I want to be the Miami Marlins of the NFL. Win a title then suck for ten years while they tear it down and start all over. Winning during the season is fun. It sucks the final game when they go home and dont get to go to the Super Bowl. But up to that point, it is great. Beats the helll out of feeling that way 12 games a year like we did during the dark years.

Agreed.  It’s just like my second favorite team, The Washington Generals.

@Henry posted:

My contention is your contention has been a running theme amongst fans and the Packers organization for several years.  It’s always “just one or two” plays.  

At some point it has to come down to the whole team, coaching staff and FO organization as to why there is such a standard of complacency.

The goal is the Super Bowl.  There isn’t a single player talking about how great being 13-3 was vs. winning a Super Bowl.

I don’t think that’s true this year. You’re conflating two things here. The shortcomings of the organization during the last 25 years and Gutenkunst not drafting a player.

I am with you about previous years... the organization has failed in many ways to deliver with two generational QBs. In ‘14 and ‘20 they really had it- and they blew it. All those other failures are just that- failures.

I too thought trading up to get a QB was not the right move. But as was said- Gutekunst made a calculated move, a lot of folks said wtf are you doing, and in the end the team should have been the team that busted Kansas City’s ass in the SB. Gutekunst wound up right about not needing to make a 1st round investment to get the Packers there.

That’s not absolving the other failures. It’s just making the observation that the choice Gutekunst made in the draft wasn’t one of them...

Though there was no preseason you have to think the brass has seen plenty of Love inside their building by now. They don't seem panicked.

@FLPACKER posted:

If Love is not better than Boyle by the end of next year's training camp it is then time to start worrying

There were some goobers on this board in Rodger’s second year babbling about how much better Craig Nall was and that he should be the backup. Give the kid time to develop.

Maybe Gute will draft another QB this year and really blow everyone's mind!

Thompson drafted Rodgers in '05, and then another QB in '06.

@Goalline posted:

There were some goobers on this board in Rodger’s second year babbling about how much better Craig Nall was and that he should be the backup. Give the kid time to develop.

You mean the-icon, everybody's favorite racist?   Unless he cloned himself as an ubermensch that wouldn't predicate "some".

@Timmy! posted:

Maybe Gute will draft another QB this year and really blow everyone's mind!

Yes, it's better to be proactive than reactive.  Love will need a backup, if the guy you like is out there, go get him.

@Henry posted:

You mean the-icon, everybody's favorite racist?   Unless he cloned himself as an ubermensch that wouldn't predicate "some".

Oh, he had his sympathizers.

Don't all demagogues?  I think he started an organization, Proud Pancake Nalls.

The guy that needs to explain himself is Mark Murphy, not Gute.

It’s obvious now that both TT and MM should have been replaced much sooner than they did and this team is still paying for those mistakes.  Not to mention we wasted several years of Rodgers in the process.

The 2015-2017 drafts will take a while to recover from and unfortunately Gute has to play catch up.   Him drafting or not drafting Love isn’t the difference.  It’s the culmination of a lot of bad draft picks and coaching decisions.   McCarthy should have been canned after the Seattle debacle.  Ted should have retired much earlier than he did but Murphy was too busy playing wannabee owner building sledding hills to care.

@michiganjoe posted:

Agree with that except for Gutey's career hinging on the Love pick. Some Packer fans may never forgive him but one move doesn't make or break an NFL GM.

Tell that to Buddy Nix, or any number of GMs who didn’t find a franchise QB.

@Tschmack posted:

The guy that needs to explain himself is Mark Murphy, not Gute.

Thompson was GM in '17 and had control over HC firing/hiring. When they switched GMs to Gutekunst in '18 (Jan 7th), McCarthy was gone later that year (Dec. 2nd).

Murphy handles the business operations and by all accounts is doing that well.

Gutekunst needs to hit on draft picks and find reasonably priced FAs.

Coaches need to coach and players need to play.

I actually like that Murphy has little involvement in the product on the field and that he defers that part of the operation to Gutekunst, LaFleur, and Ball.

I'd agree with you except for the Russ Ball part.  That's the exact same as management pissing around with football operations.  We've already seen the results once.

@Music City posted:

But as was said- Gutekunst made a calculated move, a lot of folks said wtf are you doing, and in the end the team should have been the team that busted Kansas City’s ass in the SB. Gutekunst wound up right about not needing to make a 1st round investment to get the Packers there.

I'm not at all following here.

The Packers ended up in the exact same spot as 2019 team. How can you possibly know that a 1st round pick that wasn't wasted on the 6th best QB in the Mountain West Conference wouldn't have made a difference on this team and gotten them to the Super Bowl?

Because they won the Super Bowl . . .

@Timpranillo posted:

I'm not at all following here.

The Packers ended up in the exact same spot as 2019 team. How can you possibly know that a 1st round pick that wasn't wasted on the 6th best QB in the Mountain West Conference wouldn't have made a difference on this team and gotten them to the Super Bowl?

We were one Kevin King brain fart play away from the SB.  Does anyone think we were going to draft his replacement in the first round?

I have no opinions on whether Love is going to end up being a good player or not.  But picking him over someone else is not why we lost in the NFCCG.

@Timpranillo posted:

I'm not at all following here.

The Packers ended up in the exact same spot as 2019 team. How can you possibly know that a 1st round pick that wasn't wasted on the 6th best QB in the Mountain West Conference wouldn't have made a difference on this team and gotten them to the Super Bowl?

If the Packers had added some contributors in Rounds 1-4 this year, maybe that extra talent is enough to force a punt on the first Tampa Bay drive of the title game because they have a LB or another DB to make a conversion that much tougher. I like Lazard and MVS on the roster, but ESB should have been replaced. Maybe an extra WR pushes Lazard down the depth chart so he's the guy to catch the 2 point conversion on that route. Maybe another DL takes snaps from Lowry or Lancaster and can make some dynamic plays. It's not just that the player might be a star player, it's that drafting even average guys as rookies can improve your depth so you don't have to play guys like Redmond, Josh Jackson, M. Adams, and injured Kevin King, or ESB for the snaps they got.

I think that the Packers did well in Rounds 5-7. They got a couple of guys that at least were stopgap starters when needed this year and can be solid contributors over the years (Runyan and Martin). Scott and Garvin were not out of place on an NFL roster and you can't expect more than that from a 7th round pick. But the fact is, no team in the NFL got less out of the first 4 rounds of the draft than the Packers did this  year and it isn't even close. DeGuara got injured, but he wasn't going to supplant Tonyan or M. Lewis anyways.

Here's what each of the final 4 teams got out of their draft picks.

Packers snaps played (138 TOTAL) - Love (0), Dillon (107), DeGuara (31)

Bucs snaps played (Rounds 1-4 draft capital) (2914 TOTAL) - Wirf (1073), Winfield (1034), Vaughn (99), Gronk (808) (they traded their 4th round pick for him)

Chiefs snaps played (1219 TOTAL): Edwards-Hellaire (808), Gay (267), Niang (COVID opt-out), and Sneed (410)

Bills snaps played (1364 + some fraction of Digg's snaps). Epeneza (279), Moss (359), Davis (735).  I didn't count Diggs because they traded their first round pick plus some late round 2021 picks next year for him, but obviously they got superstar play for 895 snaps in large part for their first round pick this year.

I didn't get into special teams snaps, but they got 73 total snaps from the first 4 rounds this year. Maybe adding a couple contributors there improves that unit as well. I know they didn't lose the NFC title game because of special teams screwups, but they probably modified some of their approach because that unit sucked (kick it shorter and higher and give up some yards to negate the possibility of a return, etc.)

The average full-time player on an NFL team gets about 1,000 snaps per year. That means the Bucs added the equivalent of 3 starters from their draft capital this year, the Chiefs and Bills added one full-time starter each. The Packers added the equivalent of what M. Adams played this year in total.

@vitaflo posted:

We were one Kevin King brain fart play away from the SB.  Does anyone think we were going to draft his replacement in the first round?

I have no opinions on whether Love is going to end up being a good player or not.  But picking him over someone else is not why we lost in the NFCCG.

We were one or two plays away from going to the Superbowl. Certainly drafting a player or two in the first and fourth rounds could have made all of the difference. Whether that player could have helped force one more stop (DL, 3rd CB, LB) or be a part of the reason why we scored just one more time (OL, WR) doesn't really matter. It was a wasted opportunity to add a player or two that could have put us over the top.

They had a whole half to make up for that one brain fart.

Seems doable.

@vitaflo posted:

We were one Kevin King brain fart play away from the SB.  Does anyone think we were going to draft his replacement in the first round?

I have no opinions on whether Love is going to end up being a good player or not.  But picking him over someone else is not why we lost in the NFCCG.

You mean not having good enough personnel on the field doesn't decide the outcome of the game?

It's not just about Love, it's about not drafting shit for defense until the 5th round.  It's about the capital used on Love.  Not how good Love may or may not be.

@vitaflo posted:

We were one Kevin King brain fart play away from the SB.  Does anyone think we were going to draft his replacement in the first round?

I think that a lot of teams draft players in the first round that improve the talent on the field the following year, whether by starting, by improving the backups, etc.

Does Raekwon Davis upgrade the DL over Lancaster or Lowry?

Does Cameron Dantzler upgrade the CB over King? Does he drop the INT like Redmond?

Does Chase Claypool upgrade the WR over ESB?

Does Patrick Queen or Jordyn Brooks upgrade the LB over Kirksey or Ty Summers?

Any one of those picks would have improved the roster this year. Any one of those picks would have upgraded areas of need. Any one of those picks would have strengthened that position from top to bottom. And, yes, any one of those picks might have made the difference between getting status quo vs 2019 and improving in 2020.

Coming off an NFCC year where there were clear and obvious talent gaps on the roster, Gutekunst decided to use his 1st (and 4th) on the position of least need any time over the next 2-3 years in order to draft a middling QB that threw a ton of INTs in a low major conference against inferior competition instead of upgrading the talent at any of the obvious areas of need. That he wasted two picks on a QB that maybe plays in 3 years after not doing anything meaningful to upgrade the roster in Free Agency is even more damning. Had he done anything to improve WR or LB or DL in the offseason, then drafting Love may not have been that big of an issue.

But, yes, I do think that had Gutekunst used the 1st round pick on an ILB/DL/WR/CB Green Bay was much more likely to have won the Super Bowl, and it sure as hell would have been more likely than wasting 2 picks on a 3rd string QB that was inactive every single game.

Again, the game came down to 90 or so seconds.  The  Rodgers pick (that shouldn’t have been due to PI), followed by the dropped INT by Redmond, followed by the Pettine/King debacle that results in a TD right before half.  The malaise carried over and Jones fumbles and gets hurt, then TB recovers on the 10 yard line and one play - boom - another TD.  

For all intents and purposes, that was the ballgame at 28-10.  It was a miracle GB clawed their way back to make it close yet they did despite all the fuck ups and blown calls and failure(s) to execute.  

Must remind everyone @UCF_Football DB Richie Grant is a safety by trade, not a corner. Numerous reps like this one where @rgrant1525 blankets WR during Senior Bowl week. Probably the best finisher in this year’s game. There’s a reason why he’s a hot guy in the league right now.🔥 pic.twitter.com/j2iGGRxOcJ

— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) February 12, 2021

@Grave Digger posted:

Ted Thompson thought he was drafting contributors for a decade. No one drafts guys early who they believe won't contribute for 3 years, except when you're drafting a successor at QB and your QB has 3 years left on a contract. If you think a guy is Patrick Mahomes then fucking get him, whether he is or isn't is beside the point, it's not even a debate. Gute didn't pick him because he thinks he's good, he picked him because he thinks he's great. This guy has hedged his entire career on Jordan Love being the next great NFL QB, that's some heavy shit. His career as a GM is over, not just in GB but probably ever, if Love doesn't pan out. Nothing was scrapped, Gute believed (correctly) that he had already assembled a SB team.

He didn't assemble a SB team.

He brought back basically the same roster that lost the NFCC. And, because he did nothing to meaningfully improve the roster, they went no further than the 2019 team.

You can claim that Gute thought he had assembled a SB, but he was not correct in that belief.

The 2020 Packers were a Super Bowl caliber team.   It took a lot of things to happen for them to lose that game against TB.   They should have advanced.  

The 2019 team?   Not so much.  The 49ers backs are still running all over that squad.  They barely beat the Seahawks and got worked the following week.