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NFL Draft: Teams should expect to be wrong on โ€œtheir guyโ€

In 2017, the Bears dealt the No. 3 pick, two thirds and a fourth to the 49ers to move up one spot in the draft. At No. 2, they chose their guy, Mitch Trubisky. It wasnโ€™t a reach at the time, as scouts ranked Trubisky the No. 1 QB in his class. That same year, the Chiefs sent two first-round picks and a third for the Billsโ€™ No. 10 pick, drafting Patrick Mahomes.

Regardless of how their careers would unfold, trade value charts had the teams who traded back โ€” the 49ers and Bills โ€” winning both deals by receiving upwards of 150 cents on the dollar. Why?

As Alec Lewis explains in an enlightening story on the NFLโ€™s approach to the draft, research has shown that teams should accumulate picks by trading back and into the future more often: โ€œThe more darts you have, the better your chance of eventually hitting the bullโ€™s-eye.โ€

More here...

https://theathletic.com/541942...t-errors-scoop-city/

P.S. Anyone think Gutey is trading up in round1? If he does he thinks someone is a Hall of Fame player.

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Last edited by Boris

The Bills are maybe not the best example to use since Mahomes and the Chiefs have been stopping the Bills from getting to the Super Bowl consistently. Thatโ€™s some rather good โ€œvalueโ€.

Thereโ€™s a reason most hall of fame players and all pros are first rounders, and thatโ€™s because they are usually the best prospects. Thereโ€™s a severe law of diminishing returns the later a pick is. More picks does mean more chances, of course, but the value of that chance is not equal throughout.

Last edited by Herschel

From McGinn's draft series

QUOTE TO NOTE

AFC personnel man: โ€œI look for hips in a corner.
Thatโ€™s the key for me. I donโ€™t care how fast a guy is. If he has to stop and gather to change direction heโ€™s beaten. Thatโ€™s why I really like watching corners in practice. I get more out of corners at a practice than any other position.โ€

I saw a report about Gute maybe moving up for a CB. The guys mentioned that he'd move up for were Terrion Arnold, Kool Aid McKinstry and Quinyon Mitchell. The article said Arnold was the smartest CB, of these three, Kool Aid was a solid player and that Quinyon Mitchell was the article's pick as, basically, the best CB on the board. If Gute moves up to draft one of these guys, what does that mean for Stokes? It is also interesting that this article did not mention Cooper Dejean, at all.

Last edited by mrtundra

In reviewing all the TE in this class, it's a very underwhelming one in terms of athleticism...and perhaps explains why Gutey double-dipped on the position last year.

I would be stunned if the Packers take a TE this year...too many 6'3" guys with poor agility. Never say never, but there are much better value picks especially in R4-R7. Looking at all the OL tallant, I am thinking Packers could take as many as 4 OL. This is a good year to take a swing at re-stocking the OL Draft & Develop tank.

@Satori posted:

That's really cool that you can do the direct comparisons on mathbomb, thx

Edgerrin gets the edge on speed in the 40 and 10 yd split, so that's encouraging
Agility leans toward Barnett though

RAS can't measure a guys mentality. Barnett was a straight up dawg...he wanted to be the best like Gilbert Brown wanted a hamburger. Dennis Erickson raved about NB's work ethic when he was at Oregon State.

If EC has that mentality...he will be successful. If not, he probably won't.

@Iowacheese posted:

Erick All coming off an injury.  Later rounds DFH.  Did not realize Barnett put up that many reps on the bench.

Edge Coop along side Quay could be silly good.

Unfortunately we haven't been able to see his RAS score because he hasn't tested yet...but he passes the eyeball test. Had decent production at a school known for producing quality NFL TE...the question is, how does he compare to LaPorta?

Bad year for TE in the draft so that will help his cause. Last year we had 14 TE with a RAS over 9.00

2024, there are 4.

@Chongo posted:

RAS can't measure a guys mentality. Barnett was a straight up dawg...he wanted to be the best like Gilbert Brown wanted a hamburger. Dennis Erickson raved about NB's work ethic when he was at Oregon State.

If EC has that mentality...he will be successful. If not, he probably won't.

One thing that kind of impressed me about Cooper is that he didnโ€™t play any games with the โ€œgreen dotโ€ question. Most guys say they want it and can do it because itโ€™s considered a positive and can help their draft stock, whether theyโ€™d be worth a shit doing it or not. Cooper reportedly said heโ€™d prefer not to as heโ€™s better suited to just making plays than coordinating everyone else.

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