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NFL Draft: Teams should expect to be wrong on “their guy”

In 2017, the Bears dealt the No. 3 pick, two thirds and a fourth to the 49ers to move up one spot in the draft. At No. 2, they chose their guy, Mitch Trubisky. It wasn’t a reach at the time, as scouts ranked Trubisky the No. 1 QB in his class. That same year, the Chiefs sent two first-round picks and a third for the Bills’ No. 10 pick, drafting Patrick Mahomes.

Regardless of how their careers would unfold, trade value charts had the teams who traded back — the 49ers and Bills — winning both deals by receiving upwards of 150 cents on the dollar. Why?

As Alec Lewis explains in an enlightening story on the NFL’s approach to the draft, research has shown that teams should accumulate picks by trading back and into the future more often: “The more darts you have, the better your chance of eventually hitting the bull’s-eye.”

More here...

https://theathletic.com/541942...t-errors-scoop-city/

P.S. Anyone think Gutey is trading up in round1? If he does he thinks someone is a Hall of Fame player.

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Last edited by Boris

The Bills are maybe not the best example to use since Mahomes and the Chiefs have been stopping the Bills from getting to the Super Bowl consistently. That’s some rather good “value”.

There’s a reason most hall of fame players and all pros are first rounders, and that’s because they are usually the best prospects. There’s a severe law of diminishing returns the later a pick is. More picks does mean more chances, of course, but the value of that chance is not equal throughout.

Last edited by Herschel
@Shadow posted:

He looks like a good home grown, corn fed, white boy. Wonder if he likes cheese curds. How far up do we have to move to get him?

It's possible up to #15 to trade with the Colts (ahead of Seattle)

Cooper VeJean from Heaven 4 visits

@Satori posted:


So Watson, Reed, Doubs, Wicks, Melton, Musgrave, Kraft, Heath and others are all available to say hello back to Jordy and the crew. GB also has Grant DuBose as a developmental guy.



No Samori Toure love? 

@El-Ka-Bong posted:

No Samori Toure love?

Not sure if he was hurt, but his snap counts went from anemic to invisible over the course of the season. He came into the year with a head start vs the youngsters, but for whatever reason -  it didn't translate to more playing time

https://www.pro-football-refer...ourSa00/fantasy/2023

Seems like we're in a loveless relationship right now.

From McGinn's draft series

QUOTE TO NOTE

AFC personnel man: “I look for hips in a corner.
That’s the key for me. I don’t care how fast a guy is. If he has to stop and gather to change direction he’s beaten. That’s why I really like watching corners in practice. I get more out of corners at a practice than any other position.”

I saw a report about Gute maybe moving up for a CB. The guys mentioned that he'd move up for were Terrion Arnold, Kool Aid McKinstry and Quinyon Mitchell. The article said Arnold was the smartest CB, of these three, Kool Aid was a solid player and that Quinyon Mitchell was the article's pick as, basically, the best CB on the board. If Gute moves up to draft one of these guys, what does that mean for Stokes? It is also interesting that this article did not mention Cooper Dejean, at all.

Last edited by mrtundra

In reviewing all the TE in this class, it's a very underwhelming one in terms of athleticism...and perhaps explains why Gutey double-dipped on the position last year.

I would be stunned if the Packers take a TE this year...too many 6'3" guys with poor agility. Never say never, but there are much better value picks especially in R4-R7. Looking at all the OL tallant, I am thinking Packers could take as many as 4 OL. This is a good year to take a swing at re-stocking the OL Draft & Develop tank.

@Chongo posted:

Image

That's really cool that you can do the direct comparisons on mathbomb, thx

Edgerrin gets the edge on speed in the 40 and 10 yd split, so that's encouraging
Agility leans toward Barnett though

@Satori posted:

That dude has got some really huge hands, they're XL meathooks.
Super helpful when holding DL or snatching passes.

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/erick-all

His blocking got a lot better at Iowa vs his Michigan version.   You have to block at TEU

Last edited by Iowacheese
@Satori posted:

That's really cool that you can do the direct comparisons on mathbomb, thx

Edgerrin gets the edge on speed in the 40 and 10 yd split, so that's encouraging
Agility leans toward Barnett though

RAS can't measure a guys mentality. Barnett was a straight up dawg...he wanted to be the best like Gilbert Brown wanted a hamburger. Dennis Erickson raved about NB's work ethic when he was at Oregon State.

If EC has that mentality...he will be successful. If not, he probably won't.

@Iowacheese posted:

Erick All coming off an injury.  Later rounds DFH.  Did not realize Barnett put up that many reps on the bench.

Edge Coop along side Quay could be silly good.

Unfortunately we haven't been able to see his RAS score because he hasn't tested yet...but he passes the eyeball test. Had decent production at a school known for producing quality NFL TE...the question is, how does he compare to LaPorta?

Bad year for TE in the draft so that will help his cause. Last year we had 14 TE with a RAS over 9.00

2024, there are 4.

@Chongo posted:

RAS can't measure a guys mentality. Barnett was a straight up dawg...he wanted to be the best like Gilbert Brown wanted a hamburger. Dennis Erickson raved about NB's work ethic when he was at Oregon State.

If EC has that mentality...he will be successful. If not, he probably won't.

One thing that kind of impressed me about Cooper is that he didn’t play any games with the “green dot” question. Most guys say they want it and can do it because it’s considered a positive and can help their draft stock, whether they’d be worth a shit doing it or not. Cooper reportedly said he’d prefer not to as he’s better suited to just making plays than coordinating everyone else.

@Chongo posted:

Suamataia and Cooper, regardless of whomever in the first.

I’d be extremely happy with Barton, Suamataia, Cooper, Bishop/Taylor-Demerson, and Green in the first three rounds.

@Chongo posted:

In reviewing all the TE in this class, it's a very underwhelming one in terms of athleticism...

Assuming you mean everyone after Brock Bowers who is highly rated and mostly mocked to the Jets at #10.

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