Rodgers not Elite?

Rodgers, as much as I hate to say it, against good defenses looks old. 

When he's standing in the pocket now, and feels the slightest of pressures, he folds like a cheap suit. He wasn't like that even a few years ago. But it's different now. He just doesn't stand tall against defenses like this, he doesn't see the field, and he looks spooked. Against lesser defenses, it's a different story.

And I am not sure a rookie HC can get him out of that habit now. Maybe MLF surprises me, but he's hanging on to the ball way too long. And it's been a problem the last 3 years.       

Wasn't a problem when he wasn't staring down Adams.    Rodgers problem is that he is too stubborn.    When forced to play within the system, he is exceptional.  When he stares down his guys and his guys only, he is just an average Joe.  

MLF was giving help and calling 3 or 5 step drop passes.   #12 just refused to get the ball out on time. 

packerboi posted:

Rodgers, as much as I hate to say it, against good defenses looks old. 

  

No reason to hate calling out the obvious man. Nobody has ever said the guy sucks or that he still can't be great on occasion.  The reality though is that he's normally a very good QB that can also slip into the average and even below average category depending upon the situation/game. Packer fans aren't used to seeing that.  Rodgers had been elite for so long we've just come to expect greatness every week.  Those days are gone. 

Rodgers tends to lock in on his favorite guys rather than going through his reads. There are countless times where we have seen dudes wide open that Rodgers never sees. Speaking of seeing, Rodgers continues to see ghosts and hangs on to the ball too long which results in sacks. 

Rodgers will be 36 next month.  Just because he wants to play until he's 40 doesn't mean he can do it at the level that's needed to win consistently.  

It's time to draft a QB.  No, not to push Rodgers out of town... but to simply prepare the franchise for the future and give itself some legitimate options going forward. 

I would bet Rodgers holds the ball on even short drops because no one is getting any separation. He has Adams and a bunch of guys who should be back up WRs. The TEs they have were old 5 years ago and likely will both be out of the league next  year. Jones is a good back, but that's about it. J. Williams is an NFL back, but almost every team has a couple of guys like. Aaron Jones and Adams are decent weapons, but everywhere else they need to upgrade and it shows when the opposing team can rush 4 and get pressure, they are limited on guys that can win matchups quickly and get open. 

Allison and MVS are both guys you have to replace and don't offer much value on special teams. Allison is, other than being tall, a limited athlete. His lack of speed kills him. MVS is a "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" guy in terms of his speed. He seems like he should be better than he is, but his physical talent just isnt' translating.

Kumerow and Lazard are the type of guys that make good #4 and #5 WRs. They run good routes and don't make mistakes, but there aren't going to beat anyone with speed. 

"I would bet Rodgers holds the ball on even short drops because no one is getting any separation. "

How much separation do you expect?    This is the NFL and not every team is fielding a Kevin King.    His risk aversion to throwing the short pass into a tight window has become a problem.  

MichiganPacker2 posted:

Allison and MVS are both guys you have to replace and don't offer much value on special teams. Allison is, other than being tall, a limited athlete. His lack of speed kills him. MVS is a "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" guy in terms of his speed. He seems like he should be better than he is, but his physical talent just isnt' translating.

Allison sucks. I thought early in the season he could pick up where he left off before getting hurt last year. Hasn't happened, Gutenheimer has to upgrade that position next season. The good news? It's an extremely deep draft at WR.

As far as MVS, Rodgers over threw him on a TD pass where he was plenty open. He just ran out of EZ, otherwise that's a beautiful route and TD he would have hauled in. In their 2nd years, Davante Adams, James Jones and Jordy Nelson(knee injury) ALL regressed their 2nd year. They looked like shit that second year.

MVS has had both ankle and knee injuries where apparently he's finally feeling better.  I can't write him off yet. Find a Greg Jennings/Jordy Nelson in the 1st 3 rounds in the 2020 draft, and that kid coupled with Adams and MVS, that could be a special unit in 2020.

MichiganPacker2 posted:

I would bet Rodgers holds the ball on even short drops because no one is getting any separation. He has Adams and a bunch of guys who should be back up WRs. The TEs they have were old 5 years ago and likely will both be out of the league next  year. Jones is a good back, but that's about it. J. Williams is an NFL back, but almost every team has a couple of guys like. Aaron Jones and Adams are decent weapons, but everywhere else they need to upgrade and it shows when the opposing team can rush 4 and get pressure, they are limited on guys that can win matchups quickly and get open. 

Allison and MVS are both guys you have to replace and don't offer much value on special teams. Allison is, other than being tall, a limited athlete. His lack of speed kills him. MVS is a "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" guy in terms of his speed. He seems like he should be better than he is, but his physical talent just isnt' translating.

Kumerow and Lazard are the type of guys that make good #4 and #5 WRs. They run good routes and don't make mistakes, but there aren't going to beat anyone with speed. 

This is flawed thinking IMO and most of us did the exact same shit with Favre in the late 90's.  Brett was the 3x MVP of the league and a SB champion.  He was the man... Any hint of him not getting it done was met with finger pointing at other dudes.  

Let's stop making excuses for Aaron Rodgers and demand that he plays the game at a higher, more consistent level than he has been.  When you're considered "elite" the expectation is that you make those around you better.  I'm not seeing it.  

packerboi posted:

MichiganPacker2 posted:

Allison and MVS are both guys you have to replace and don't offer much value on special teams. Allison is, other than being tall, a limited athlete. His lack of speed kills him. MVS is a "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" guy in terms of his speed. He seems like he should be better than he is, but his physical talent just isnt' translating.

Allison sucks.

          

You had me at hello.

He does.   What's worse than that is our insistence on throwing him bubble screens.  So on top of sucking at what he is supposed to be, a possession receiver, we are using him as if he has NFL talent in the open field.   He does not. 

MichiganPacker2 posted:

I would bet Rodgers holds the ball on even short drops because no one is getting any separation.

Nope.  Receivers are getting plenty of separation per the film.  This has been going on for years now.

Brak posted:

MichiganPacker2 posted:

I would bet Rodgers holds the ball on even short drops because no one is getting any separation.

Nope.  Receivers are getting plenty of separation per the film.  This has been going on for years now.

And the GM and the management need to realize that AR is on the downside of his career. They need to draft the future QB. They should have done it already. 

I disagree about having drafted a QB already..   He won't be a Free Agent until 2024, 4 years from the next draft.     If we took a QB this year he would be sitting for the length of the contract unless you trade Rodgers.  

If you wanted to take a gamble and pick Tua this year, fine.   Let him sit, learn and heal for 2 years before trading Rodgers. 

I would only say that if they don't draft a QB early, it may be that they like what they already have.  I get the importance of the position, but there are so many other pressing needs.

Of course, we all could've said the same thing when Rodgers was drafted.

Gem I found on the word wide web....

"Legend says he was still holding the ball as he laid down to sleep."

"The worst time to try and find a franchise QB is when you really need one" 

-Abraham Lincoln 

packerboi posted:

Rodgers, as much as I hate to say it, against good defenses looks old. 

When he's standing in the pocket now, and feels the slightest of pressures, he folds like a cheap suit. He wasn't like that even a few years ago. But it's different now. He just doesn't stand tall against defenses like this, he doesn't see the field, and he looks spooked. Against lesser defenses, it's a different story.

And I am not sure a rookie HC can get him out of that habit now. Maybe MLF surprises me, but he's hanging on to the ball way too long. And it's been a problem the last 3 years.       

Here's his ranking vs the rest of the NFL in the following stats.

For his first 7 years, Rodgers was as good as there's ever been. Efficient as hell, top 5 in TD% every year, protects the ball better than anyone else that's played the position. 2009-12 is simply mindblowing, and again, he doesn't get hurt in 2013 and that stretch goes from 2009-2014 and it's not like 2008 was in any stretch "bad" 

Like it or not, there's been a very distinct dropoff (and yes, it's relative so stop getting angry) since the end of the 2014 season overall. He was very good in 2016, but the point stands.

He still protects the ball better than anyone that's played, but by every other metric, he's... I mean, guys. He's been been basically an average NFL QB. 

Getting old? Injuries played with his mind? The Seattle playoff game really just did a number on this entire organization? League has figured him out to an extent? He's so hyperfocused on preventing INTs that he's just not willing to make throws NFL QBs at times need to make? 

I don't know. MM clearly didn't figure it out. And not clear that MLF has yet either.  Aaron Rodgers is by all measures a middle of the road NFL QB except with throwing INTs and has been the last 3 years and frankly 4 of the last 5.

I'm not saying he sucks. I'm not saying trade him, but the reality is the reality. And Aaron Rodgers has been an average NFL QB for long enough that this can no longer be handwaved away as a slump.

It's time to cut bait on marginal WR masquerading as NFL starting WR and we will see where #12's numbers go.

Excellent post TIMPRANILLO.  I don't know where you got those numbers but thanks for posting them.  They tell a very clear story of what some of us have been saying/noticing for awhile now.  

Rodgers needs to play better... if he can.  If he can't, GB needs to start considering the future at that position much sooner than later. 

Chongo posted:

It's time to cut bait on marginal WR masquerading as NFL starting WR and we will see where #12's numbers go.

Sure, that will help... but it doesn't change the fact that some of these marginal guys are getting open and Rodgers doesn't even see them because he's either seeing ghosts in the pocket or staring down his bestie.

Tim please send him your analysis as a fan letter. That might put a new chip on his shoulder.

That chip on the shoulder shit is so 2010.

Timpranillo posted:

Rodgers	Comp%	TD%	INT%	Y/A	Rating
2015	25	11	3	30	15
2016	9	2	5	13	4
2017	8	2	23	18	8
2018	26	22	1	17	13
2019	17	16	1	15	12

The other common denominator here might be... Jordy Nelson?

Pre 2015 - Healthy Jordy

2015 - No Jordy all year

2016 - Healthy Jordy

2017 - Healthy Jordy, but not a healthy AR

2018 - No Jordy

2019 - No Jordy

I don't know, grasping here.  Maybe Jordy and him just had a mind meld and he always had someone that he trusted, knew where they'd be, would legit get open a ton, and had to get attention from the D because of that which opened it up for others? 

While we're discussing Rodgers... What in the hell is deal with letting the play clock run down to 1 or even 0 on most of the snaps?  All that does is give the defensive line the green light to pin their ears back and go nuts without worrying about snap counts.  

Get out of the damn huddle and give your guys a chance to succeed.  

Pakrz posted:

Excellent post TIMPRANILLO.  I don't know where you got those numbers but thanks for posting them.  

The advantages of a young retirement. Can scour Pro Football Reference for hours at a time!

Thanks TIMPRANILLO for providing numbers backing up what the eyes see.

I would add that 2015 was the year Jordy went down and Cobb got old.

Rodgers had a great run in 2016 and overall a really good season.

He has obviously regressed.

That said, the WRs outside of Adams have been bad the past 3 seasons.

2016 was also the year Cook was good at the end of the year, but Ted decided to sign Martellus Bennett for more money instead of resigning Cook.

I think Rodgers drop off in production is due to a combination of age, his own play regressing, and the lack of weapons around him.

BrainDed posted:

Wasn't a problem when he wasn't staring down Adams.    Rodgers problem is that he is too stubborn.    When forced to play within the system, he is exceptional.  When he stares down his guys and his guys only, he is just an average Joe.  

MLF was giving help and calling 3 or 5 step drop passes.   #12 just refused to get the ball out on time. 

Two of three games since 17's been back have been abysmal offensive showings. This is not coincidence. As the weeks rolled on without Adams, the offense was beginning to open up. The running game was becoming effective, and 6,7, 8 guys were catching passes and contributing. This is an AR mental block. The rest of the wr corps may be subpar, but they are even moreso if 12 is never looking their way at all. You could say Kittle torched them last night, but that happened well into the game, once SF had established other guys who made plays. Once they got Kittle involved, they did whatever they wanted, because there were too many guys making plays for GB to get their heads around. That was what we had hoped was happening while Adams was out. And now it's back to the same stagnance and waiting around for someone else to make a play.

Timpranillo posted:

I don't know, grasping here.  Maybe Jordy and him just had a mind meld and he always had someone that he trusted, knew where they'd be, would legit get open a ton, and had to get attention from the D because of that which opened it up for others? 

Part of it is that since around 2014, the cupboards simply haven't been replaced on offense.

You have to go all the way back to Ty Montgomery in 2015 to find a WR taken in the 1st 3 rounds. Ditto RB, ditto TE (until this season), and ditto OL (until Jenkins this season) etc. It's just been years and years of WR's or TE or RB who either aged themselves, ate themselves or injured themselves out of the NFL and Ted did nothing to replace them.   

Otherwise, it's been vast swing and misses at CB (Randall, Rollins, Jackson, HHCD), DL (Mike Neal, Jerel Worthy, Monty Adams. Datone Jones, Nick Perry) or S/LB (Josh Jackson, Oren Burks) who Ted  (and a tiny piece of Gutey) missed on later in his regime.  So now that Gutey has fixed some of that on defense, he now had to address the far too neglected offense.

THE OTHER PART, IMO...

is Rodgers has again morphed into relying way too much on Adams and before that, Jordy. He is now not fully playing in MLF's offense. He is  WAY too focused on Adams, who's still recovering from a turf toe and Rodgers was throwing him 50/50 balls last night. There are better options. You saw this when Adams was out. WTF happened to that? Without Adams, they played 4 weeks of football playing within MLF's system. We all saw the results.  Matt LaFleur's job is to tell AR they have to go back to that. 

Reminds me of the days when Favre fed Sterling Sharpe and almost no one else.

BrainDed posted:

He does.   What's worse than that is our insistence on throwing him bubble screens.  So on top of sucking at what he is supposed to be, a possession receiver, we are using him as if he has NFL talent in the open field.   He does not. 

Yes. Allison is a glorified TE. He's probably more likely to make a catch on a lob pass than Jimmy Graham is at this point in his career. 

Allison's 40 time at the combine was 4.67. Lazard was 4.54. Kumerow was 4.54. As good as Adams is, his 40 time was only 4.56. MVS is supposed to be the guy that stretches the field. His 40 time at the combine was 4.37, but he plays much slower than that either because he's been hurt or he just can't translate that to the NFL.  Trevor Davis was 4.42, but he could never figure it out in Green Bay.

The Packers need a WR with speed to threaten the defense deep. Either MVS develops or they have to spend a high draft pick to get someone like that. 

ESB should be back and healthy next year. He showed some promise last season.

So did MVS. 

If they're going to throw a bubble screen on a short down, toss it to Lazard before G-Mo or even Adams. At least Lazard will a) catch it, b) run hard, c) be tougher to bring down than G-Mo, and d) punish small DBs with his size and aggressiveness. Lazard may not take it to the house with speed, but he's got a touch of nasty in his willingness to hit guys rather than run OOB.

I agree on Lazard. He's a bruiser compared to Gmo.

packerboi posted:

Without Adams, they played 4 weeks of football playing within MLF's system. We all saw the results.  Matt LaFleur's job is to tell AR they have to go back to that. 

         

      

Yeah, but, is Rodgers going to listen?  I love Rodgers, probably the best pure QB I've ever watched, but I am really starting to think he's doing whatever he wants.  I don't know if MLF will be able to get through to him if a coach who he won a Super Bowl with couldn't.

So then, what is the next alternative?  Bench him for Boyle?  That would not go over well...and we thought the Favre Shitshow was something.

I haven't watched the NFL as much these past couple years since it is such a flagfest (and I prefer college football), but there are some REALLY shitty NFL QBs that seem to play within their respective systems enough to put together decent games.  I just cannot fathom why Rodgers can't do that, unless he just doesn't WANT to.

packerboi posted:

THE OTHER PART, IMO...

is Rodgers has again morphed into relying way too much on Adams and before that, Jordy. He is now not fully playing in MLF's offense. He is  WAY too focused on Adams, who's still recovering from a turf toe and Rodgers was throwing him 50/50 balls last night. There are better options. You saw this when Adams was out. WTF happened to that? Without Adams, they played 4 weeks of football playing within MLF's system. We all saw the results.  Matt LaFleur's job is to tell AR they have to go back to that. 

What happened to that is they played a top shelf D.  Easy to throw to 6-7 guys when at least one of them gets open.  Who was open last night?

Gmo needs to go back to his roots instead of playing football.  Spaghetti westerns.

We are now currently in the AR Paradox:

He was so good for so long that he made mediocre teams/players good and good teams/players great.  It prevented us from picking early many years.  Not that early draft picks are a sure thing, but they help.   It also gave the organization the false sense of ability when it came to its skilled players. 

His large salary prevents us from having as much flexibility in FA as we'd like. However, you have no choice but to pay him since you can't win in the NFL without a really good QB.

The ability of Brees and Brady to play very well to such a late age, has changed the perception of what is old for a QB.  Had this been 10yrs ago, we'd figure that AR has maybe a few years left.  (he still might only have a few years left) but with every win that the other two rack up it makes it seem like AR could do the same. 

He's at a point in his career where he is too good to get rid of but not good enough to carry this team like before.  I sincerely hope that an influx of talent on offense will right the ship as this is the only recourse  that I think is available. 

Maynard posted:      

      

Yeah, but, is Rodgers going to listen?  I love Rodgers, probably the best pure QB I've ever watched, but I am really starting to think he's doing whatever he wants.  I don't know if MLF will be able to get through to him if a coach who he won a Super Bowl with couldn't.

MM's loyalty to Capers, et alia, is indefensible.  My favorable view of him stems from what the offenses were able to achieve.  I will always believe that, all things considered, he maximized offensive output right up there with the best play callers.   If that incites the wrath of some here, so be it  But I've been of the opinion for some time now that 12 goes rogue a lot.

Would love to have some beers with Mike McCarthy, Edgar Bennett, and Alex Van Pelt, and ask whatever I want.

I really, really like MLF and the direction we're heading.  I believe we're on the right track for improvement.

DocBenni posted:

We are now currently in the AR Paradox:

 

So many good posts after yesterday's game.  Lots of well thought out analyses.

I like "the AR Paradox."  It's true.  I'm not suggesting that Rodgers should do anything about it, but I don't know that Patriot fans have ever found themselves in "the Brady Paradox."  Say what you will, but that guy's desire to win is unmatched.  And I don't think he's even in the top ten in terms of QB salary.  Because he values team success over his own individual compensation.

On the other hand, he married pretty well.

Brak posted:

DocBenni posted:

We are now currently in the AR Paradox:

 

So many good posts after yesterday's game.  Lots of well thought out analyses.

I like "the AR Paradox."  It's true.  I'm not suggesting that Rodgers should do anything about it, but I don't know that Patriot fans have ever found themselves in "the Brady Paradox."  Say what you will, but that guy's desire to win is unmatched.  And I don't think he's even in the top ten in terms of QB salary.  Because he values team success over his own individual compensation.

On the other hand, he married pretty well.

I absolutely hate the Chowderheads,  but I have come to admire Brady. The guy's will/desire to win is undeniable despite all the accolades he's received and the championships he's won. He is able to rally and inspire his offense and I just don't see that with Rodgers.  If I had to choose metaphors,  Rodgers is the corporate CEO type, hell bent on doing things his own way, while Brady is the talented manager,  working within the system.   MLF needs to remind Rodgers of his role within the system and make it clear that the offense suffers when he deviates. 

Not connecting with receivers.