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If you see Sternberger's 2 unimpeded releases over the last 2 weeks it's pretty clear that AR doesn't know where the best opportunities are going to come from in this offense. Both were certain long TDs if he made the catch of the un-thrown ball. Instead they settled for a couple of 20 yd gains to Graham and AR's run.

You get 50-60 plays a game, you’re trying to put the ball in the hands of Aaron Jones at least 20 times a game, you would like to see Davante Adams get 10 targets maybe, another 10 overall touches for Jamal Williams (maybe 15), so right off the bat Rodgers is going to be looking for one of those 3 or handing it off on maybe 40-45 plays a game. Those are you big 3 skill guys, they’ve proven capable with the ball in their hands.


When you do the math it’s not really surprising that there are missed opportunities for the remaining skill players...10-20 opportunities for Stern, Big Bob, Graham, GMO, WWJD, and Laz. They see something on film, they see what they want on the field, Rodgers is going to trust his eyes and his planning and look for his big 3. Guarantee though Rodgers sees what Stern can do and will keep that in mind. Defenses also know now though, that opportunity won’t happen often. I’m guessing they will save that opportunity for the 4th Q of a playoff game, catch the defense napping and let Stern get behind them. Guarantee Rodgers hits it.

Last edited by Grave Digger

https://www.jsonline.com/story...playoffs/2687586001/

Fun fact: When under pressure over the past two seasons, Aaron Rodgers has thrown zero interceptions and seven touchdown passes, per Next Gen Stats. What's even more predictive of success is that Rodgers has been pressured at the fourth-lowest rate of any quarterback this season (19.6 percent), which is a good thing, because as amazing as that TD-to-INT ratio under pressure is, Rodgers' completion percentage under pressure is only 38.8 this season, fourth-lowest among qualified QBs. On deep passes, however, Rodgers ranks second in the NFL with a 122.7 passer rating (8:0 TD-to-INT ratio). My model loves the upside the Packers defense can provide. Next Gen Stats counts the Packers as pressuring opposing QBs on 32.2 percent of dropbacks (second best in the NFL), with Za'Darius Smith amassing 60 QB pressures this season (second most in NFL). My model adds that measurements show this pressure is the fifth-most disruptive, in terms of the Packers' ability to get within the five-foot halo around opposing QBs.

YATittle posted:

https://www.jsonline.com/story...playoffs/2687586001/

Fun fact: On deep passes, however, Rodgers ranks second in the NFL with a 122.7 passer rating (8:0 TD-to-INT ratio). 

Just think.....it'd be even better if MVS could catch the 🤬 ball 

Last edited by Boris
Pakrz posted:

Ain't that the truth?  I didn't realize how shitty of a play that was until I got home from the game and watched the highlights.  That was ridiculous. 

Slows down AND doesn't extend his arms.  Incredible.

I thought the move to slow down was right. If he just extends his hands a few inches he catches it in stride and he's still running.  If he kept running full speed it might hit him in the back. 

bdplant posted:
Grave Digger posted:

No offense to Rodgers, but Russell Wilson is playing better ball than anyone not named Lamar Jackson in the NFL. For where the NFL is right now in trends, Wilson, Jackson, Mahomes, and Watson are the guys...defenses are on their heels trying to combat college style RPO's, PRO's, single wing, etc. while the old timers like Rodgers, Brees, and Brady are running efficient schemes to keep their teams above water. Easier way to put it: the young guys are creating, the old guys are facilitating...they're trying to put the ball in the hands of Adams, Thomas, Jones, Kamara, White, etc. as efficiently as possible. Obviously both systems are working. 

I agree with this, but I don’t expect this style of play to make for long careers...especially with the hits Jaskson has been willing to take. Wilson seems a little different in that he’s a good runner but he’s also pretty good at avoiding big hits. Mahomes has already missed some time this season. 

I’m not as willing as others to put so much blame on the WRs...I think this offense will be fine if/when AR decides he’s willing to spread the ball around more like he did when Adams was injured.....and he almost never turns the ball over which is huge. 

As far as old school QBs go, I’ll still take AR over anybody else in the league. 

I have the feeling that Rodgers will still be playing at 40 years old at an above average level. Lamar may be in a wheelchair.

Wilson is somehow, I dunno, just seems to be un breakable. Kinda like the toy you hated getting for Christmas as a kid.

you tried and tried to break it, but you couldn't.

I think Wilson ends up in the Hall.

Pakrz posted:

Ain't that the truth?  I didn't realize how shitty of a play that was until I got home from the game and watched the highlights.  That was ridiculous. 

They obviously saw something on film to take that shot on the opening play. Just sucks it wasn't successful.

Wouldn't this be a great stat line?

Rodgers 1-33 for 75 yards & TD. Packers win 7-0. 😆

Last edited by Boris
El-Nuke-the-Hurricanes-Bong posted:

Yup, like he did everything right, then turned into a T-Rex at the last second

Reminded me very much of Billy Schroeder. Run fast, see ball, bend arms, watch ball fall.

On one of the replays, you could see he flinches at the last second.  Saw a ghost or something, or just too much time to think about that one.  It was his first target in what, like 3 or 4 games? 

Looks like he has himself completely psyched out at this point and the drop in snaps is warranted.  I wouldn't give up on him though. The tools are there, he just needs to get his mind right.

It never surprises me when I find out how little we, as fans, actually know about football. I’m like everyone else who thought this was a huge issue. Turns out it’s another game Rodgers plays like the 12 players on the field, dummy checks, and hurry up offense. 

Speak for yourself, I know the reads and progressions on every play so I know when Rodgers is purposely avoiding WWJ even though he has the #4 BFI WR separation during the 3rd quarter at home games starting at noon.   

Last edited by El-Ka-Bong

So you have your QB reading the defense correctly on a regular basis but there are still breakdowns.  I wonder if they call that "execution"?  But #1 in separation.  Are "separation" and "execution" the same thing?

Last edited by Henry

The truth always comes out. Sometimes it takes a few years but we always find out eventually.

No surprise what Rodgers is doing. He can see that defense. Now he simply needs to sit back & take what the defense gives him instead of going for the strike play.

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