@Floridarob posted:

i am keeping the faith. Rodgers reups with the Packers on a lifetime contract. His arm might be a noodle in five years but his brain will compensate for the difference.

It would be nice to have another all-time Packers great end his career with us and retire with a celebration.  But there's so much that has to go right for that to happen, and it rarely does anymore - sadly.  I really believe AR wants back in, he'd be crazy not to unless he just flat out plans to retire. He's never mentioned money as an issue, so maybe he's willing to wheel and deal.  He probably will want assurances that if he extends on a team-friendly contract, they take care of Adams with some of that money.  I would if I was him.

But that also means MuphyBallz will have to play along to make that happen.  Whether they want AR back is unknown at this point.  If they were stupid enough to try and get rid of him back then, they may still want to.   

IMO, Love needs another year to develop before they even think about starting him.  I don't think there's another team in the league, even the lowly Texans, that would trade much for him with plans to start him next year.  He just hasn't shown much, and hasn't really had the opportunity to.  If AR signs an extension and Love wants out, so be it.  At this point, it doesn't look like it would take much to replace him.

Happy 38th GOAT!

@Henry posted:

Within the next two years?  I'd say it's straight up fact.

Well, since Rodgers will be QB1 for the next few years...

Happy Birthday @AaronRodgers12. You look great for your age. pic.twitter.com/MuvxJetygp

— Shooter McGavin (@ShooterMcGavin_) December 2, 2021

69 looks ready

That looked like he might have twisted his broken toe…..watch his left foot…..seemed like it was turned a bit.  

Just rub a little weed on it, amirite?

OMGOSH…..Clay  Matthews is on the show “animal planet” with “tanked”. He and his wife are getting an aquarium in their house.  Not sure where he’s living now, missed that, but the tank is gonna be some honor to The Packers and his Super Bowl ring.  It first aired on Nov 30, 2018.  

@Goldie posted:

OMGOSH…..Clay  Matthews is on the show “animal planet” ….  It first aired on Nov 30, 2018.  

Of course it did.

@Goldie posted:

OMGOSH…..Clay  Matthews is on the show “animal planet” with “tanked”. He and his wife are getting an aquarium in their house.  Not sure where he’s living now, missed that, but the tank is gonna be some honor to The Packers and his Super Bowl ring.  It first aired on Nov 30, 2018.  

All the fish are dead by now….

Remember when Patrick Mahomes passed Aaron Rodgers last season in TD/INT Ratio.

Currently

1. Rodger: 4.68%
2. Mahomes: 3.97%

That's all-time - not a knock on Mahomes - but he has come back down to earth a little bit. That remains the craziest Aaron Rodgers stat IMO.

— Jake Morley (@JacobMorley) December 6, 2021

Help me understand what the percentage is? 

NM, it's a ratio (like the tweet said.   WTF add a %?). 

It's bonkers to think that you could be one of the best ever and have 2 TD's for every INT you throw.  We've been so spoiled.

Interceptions at the time of their milestone TDs

And what that means is that Rodgers' is capable of so many more great throws than we see because he doesn't take the chance.  But if he took those chances, the times they worked would probably blow our minds.  But that was Favre.  His mind boggling passes came with mind numbing interceptions.

He takes chances when chances are required.    I'd like to see a breakdown of his INT's by quarter and score margin.

I highly doubt he has more than a handful of INTs while leading in the 4th quarter.   Of those, my guess would be tipped, dropped or batted balls.

I'd like to see the number of his INTs that were tipped.  I bet a good percentage were.

Rodgers could very well end up with 500 TD's  and under 100 INTs which is mind boggling even in today's game.

Favre threw 100 more INT's than the next guy on the list at 500TD's.  Also mind boggling.

Favre has always been the more charitable one.  Rodgers will only share the ball with his cronies.

I don't think you can look at tipped INT's any differently.  For every tipped INT there's a tipped catch or WR making a catch on a ball thrown into coverage.  Sure it's the WR's job to catch it but it's also the DB's job to stop the catch or make the INT.

good luck to rest of the league pic.twitter.com/kfxRN2TYMi

— CheeseheadTV 🧀 (@cheeseheadtv) December 21, 2021

Oooh, good reminder to go watch McAfee.

from Nathan Marzion

"Aaron Rodgers without his top weapons: *beats the 7-0 Cardinals on the road*

Tom the pussy Brady without his top weapons: *gets shutout at home*

Elway the most overrated QB of all time.

Actually no, that’s not fair.

Elway the most overrated pro athlete of all time

@Timpranillo posted:

Elway the most overrated QB of all time.

Actually no, that’s not fair.

Elway the most overrated pro athlete of all time

I'd say Troy Aikman. At least there were games that you watched the Broncos play and thought that Elway was the reason they won. I don't remember many Cowboy games where I thought Aikman did something remarkable. He was lining up behind one of the best offensive lines of all-time (29 cumulative Pro Bowl selections among the starting line for the Super Bowls), handing off to E. Smith, throwing to M. Irvin, and having Novacek as a TE. The defense had multiple HOF-level guys (Deion, Charles Haley, Darren Woodson).

Granted, E. Smith got a lot of short TD runs, but Aikman's best seasons were for 23, 19, 17, 16, and 15 TD passes. You'd have thought that with that lineup he'd have had a lot less chances for interceptions because he was ahead in most games and didn't have to take a lot of risks with that defense but his TD/Int ration for his career was 165/141. Even in the 4-year stretch where they won 3 Super Bowls, he wasn't that impressive (56 TD/38 int.). He was only sacked 72 times in that 4-year period, so he was mostly standing back there surveying the field untouched after play-action to Emmitt.

Except that no one talks about Aikman as if he's some otherworldly transcendent QB that is easily one of the top 5 QBs of all time.  Which a lot of people do about Elway. 

https://www.profootballnetwork...ks-in-nfl-history/2/

@Timpranillo posted:

Except that no one talks about Aikman as if he's some otherworldly transcendent QB that is easily one of the top 5 QBs of all time.  Which a lot of people do about Elway.

I agree on the top 5 or 10 part, but he was a first-ballot HOF QB. Since 1967, only 15 QBs have been inducted as first-ballot guys. Starr, Unitas, Blanda, Staubach, Bradshaw, Fouts, Montana, Kelly, Young, Elway, Marino, Moon, Favre, and Manning are the others.

I don't disagree that the NFL establishment and writers talk about him as if he's one of the best QBs of all time. They all fell in love with the blond hair blue eyed kid from Stanford with the football coaching dad immediately and they overvalued everything he ever did.

Here's where he averaged vs his peers during his career (Again, not vs the QB friendlier era of today)

15th in Comp%, Top 5 twice, Highest 3rd.
15th in TD%, Top 5 3 times, Highest 4th.
13th in INT%, Top 5 twice, Highest 3rd.
13th in Y/A, Top 5 twice, Highest 4th.
13th in QB Rating, Top 5 four times, Highest 3rd.

He looked the part. He hung around a long time. He rode Terrell Davis to 2 Super Bowls. He got to a "magic number" on TDs. But in terms of QB production, over his career he was an average QB that did nothing significantly better than anyone else.  He was barely a top 20 guy until Reeves got fired after 92, and then they changed the offensive philosophy to something closer to what the rest of the NFL was moving to, and he had 5 very nice years at the end of his career. But even then, he still wasn't better than Young or Favre and guys like Brunell, Aikman were as good.

His only MVP in 87 was an absolute joke.

Montana went 10-1, 67% Comp%, 31/13 102.1 Rating
Elway went 8-3-1, 54% Comp%, 19/12, 83.4 Rating.

Good QB? Sure.

Great QB? Had a great stretch of 5-6 years, but not sure I'd call it a great career.

HoF guy that was clearly one of the transcendent QBs of all time? Not remotely close.

Everybody loves a gunslinger.

@BrainDed posted:

He takes chances when chances are required.    I'd like to see a breakdown of his INT's by quarter and score margin.

I highly doubt he has more than a handful of INTs while leading in the 4th quarter.   Of those, my guess would be tipped, dropped or batted balls.

This is the crucial part since not all interceptions are created equal.

An interception on third and 10 is a lot different than on 1st and 10.

AR has four interceptions this year.  For him, it's been a bad year since three have been "bad" interceptions that both took points off the board. It's actually remarkable that this is considered a bad year for anyone. That's was a bad half for Favre several times.

One was in the red zone against the Saints where he was hit in the groin while throwing.

Another was in the red zone against the Seahawks where he got hit while throwing to the back of the end zone. A poor decision, but it's a play he often makes.

A third was on a 3rd and 7 and it was picked off 57 yards downfield. It got returned a long way, but the situation was worth that risk since it was a punt otherwise on the next play.

The fourth was a lob play to Adams where the CB made a good play. It was first down from midfield, so I'd still rate it as a poor interception (as opposed to the same play on 3rd down from midfield).

Some of Favre's most famous interceptions have been among the worst decisions in NFL history when you consider the timing.

His last pass as a Packers was on 2nd and 8 from the 28 in OT in the 2007/8 NFC title game. It was bad anytime, but taking the chance he did on 2nd down made it even worse.

Probably his worst pass was against the Eagles in the 2004 playoff (the 4th and 26) game. The Packers won the toss, had the ball 1st and 10 from the 32 in OT and he panicked on a blitz and threw the ball up for grabs downfield.

There should be some subjective scale for ranking how "bad" interceptions are based on the timing and down and distance.

Something like this. Some analytics people probably come up with better estimates for the negative values, but this is a start.

1. Catastrophic. Examples: The Favre OT interceptions. Any pick-six. (-50 points)

2. Terrible. Examples: An interception on first or second down when you are in FG range. (-20 points)

3. Bad level 1. An interception on 3rd down in FG range. (-15 points)

4. Bad. level 2 An interception on 1st or 2nd down (-10 points) outside of FG range. (-10 points)

5. Doesn't usually matter. An interception on third and long that occurs more than 25 yards downfield (not much worse than a punt) (-2 points). Often seems like an "f it" throw by many QBs.

6. Shouldn't even count against them (an interception on a Hail Mary at the end of a half or a game or one downfield on 4th down) (0 points). You assign -10 points for a QB that takes a sack or throws the ball away on 4th down.

7. Nothing the QB could do about it. A ball that hits the WR in the hands and or chest that bounces off for an interception. This supersedes all the other categories (for example, if a WR bobbles a good pass that pops up in the air and goes for a pick-six it gets counted in this category) (0 points)

Favre would have racked up the most negative points in NFL history per interception, let alone having the most interceptions.

@Pikes Peak posted:

https://www.profootballnetwork...ks-in-nfl-history/2/

lol

Peyton Manning better than Joe Montana? Better than Unitas?

And NO mention whatsoever of the most clutch quarterback and best field general in NFL history, that being Bryan Bartlett Starr.

Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, Jim Kelly, Kurt Warner, and Big Ben and Starr doesn’t get a whiff.

What a fucking joke

Jebus, MP2.  Somebody started their Xmas vacation early?

@DH13 posted:

Jebus, MP2.  Somebody started their Xmas vacation early?

Yep. Waiting for some family members to get home.

The Unbelievable Improbability Of Aaron Rodgers' Existance

https://zonecoverage.com/author/mwidmeier/

The timely fashion in which Rodgers has reached this milestone is nothing short of jaw-dropping. Rodgers got to 442 passing touchdowns in 45 fewer games than Favre while making 1,730 fewer attempts and throwing 193 fewer interceptions. That doesn’t diminish anything Favre accomplished. It just paints a picture of how truly remarkable Rodgers has been.

The 193 fewer interceptions stands out ...  statistical analysis was just coming into vogue as Favre's career progressed, & I don't think it was yet fully understood just how turnovers effect win probability. I wonder if Favre would be revered as highly if playing now?

@vitaflo posted:

I'd like to see the number of his INTs that were tipped.  I bet a good percentage were.

Rodgers could very well end up with 500 TD's  and under 100 INTs which is mind boggling even in today's game.

According to this article as of the end of 2020...

"Of Rodgers' 89 picks, 24 were tipped -- 14 were off the hands of receivers and 10 were deflected by a defender or by the body part of a Packers player."

Not mentioned in that article was that 12 of the 14 off the hands of receivers were Jimmy Graham.  At least that's how I'll remember it.